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What’s New: The Meetings of JGB Market Special Participants and JGB Investors p. 2-3 The 80th meeting of JGB Market Special Participants and the 79th meeting of JGB
Investors were held on March 22 and March 25, 2019 respectively.
Auction schedules on April-June 2019 of JGBi and Liquidity Enhancement Auction were announced. The amount of issuance of JGBi and the allocation of issuance amount for each zone of Liquidity Enhancement Auction on April-June 2019 are consistent with FY2019 issuance plan.
Reopening schedule of 10-40-year Bonds was also announced.
Monthly Topics: JGB holders and Overview of “Measures for the Consumption Tax Hike” p. 4-5 On March 19, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the Flow of Funds Accounts of the
4th Quarter 2018. The shares of JGBs (including T-Bills, hereinafter referred to as “JGBs”) holders were updated.
The consumption tax rate is scheduled to be increased by 2% from the current 8% to 10% on October 1, 2019 as stipulated by law. Based on the previous experience with the past consumption tax hike by 3%, mobilize a range of measures and make every effort to ensure that the tax hike will not affect the trend of economic recovery.
IR Office: Our IR activities in March p. 6 IR tours to UK and US
Statistics JGB Primary Market … p. 7 Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back … p. 8
JGB Secondary Market … p. 9 Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding … p. 11
Economic and Financial Trends … p. 15 Information … p. 16
-1-
Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS
SUMMARY
The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp
Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve stable and smooth financing for our national accounts and to minimize medium-to-long term financing costs.
April 2019
The Meetings of JGB Market Special Participants and JGB Investors The 80th Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants and the 79th Meeting of JGB Investors
were held on March 22 and March 25, 2019 respectively. Considering the opinions in the meetings, the MOF decided “Issuance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds on April-June 2019”, “Issuance Amounts for Liquidity Enhancement Auctions on April-June 2019” and “Issuance and reopening schedule of 10-year, 20-year, 30-year and 40-year Bonds (FY2019)” as explained in the meetings. In addition, the participants discussed the latest JGB market situation and the future outlook.
<Issuance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds on April-June 2019> Issuance Amount on May 2019 will be about 400 billion yen. Reopening method: 1 issue in FY2019
May, August, November 2019 and February 2020 issues will be the issue No.24. Auction method is Dutch-style-price-competitive auction (0.05 yen bidding scale). Auction Schedule of Inflation-Indexed Bonds on April-June 2019. (It will be implemented on
even months as previous quarter.)
Auction Month Auction Amount
April 2019 Buy-back: Approximately 20 billion yen
May 2019 Issuance: Approximately 400 billion yen
June 2019 Buy-back: Approximately 20 billion yen (Note1) The auctions will be conducted once in April and June. (Note2) Issues eligible for the buy-backs will be those from issue number 17 to 23 for April auction and 17 to 24 for June auction. (Note3) The Ministry of Finance reserves the right not to accept part or all of bids. The plan could be changed owing to market conditions and others. (Source) https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/press_release/20190326-02e.htm
<Issuance Amounts for Liquidity Enhancement Auctions on April-June 2019> Eligible issues and the maximum issuance amount for each auction will be as shown below.
The plan could be changed owing to market conditions and others.
April 2019 May 2019 June 2019
(1) Issues with remaining maturities of 1-5 years Not be implemented
Approximately 400 billion yen
Not be implemented
(2) Issues with remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years Approximately 600 billion yen
Approximately 600 billion yen
Approximately 600 billion yen
(3) Issues with remaining maturities of 15.5-39 years Approximately 500 billion yen
Not be implemented
Approximately 500 billion yen
(Note1) Remaining maturities are calculated starting from March 31st. (Note2) Eligible issues for 2-year JGBs in (1) zone will be those with remaining maturities of more than one year as April 30th 2019 for
May auction, including the issue to be newly issued in the auction month. (Source) https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/press_release/20190326-03e.htm
What’s New
-2-
<Issuance and reopening schedule of 10-year, 20-year, 30-year and 40-year Bonds (FY2019)>
As an exception to the schedule above, 10-year Bonds will be issued as a new issue in case the gap between the market interest rate on the auction day and the coupon rate of the issue with the same maturity is more than 0.30%.
-3-
(Note1) In FY2019, 10-year Bonds, 20-year Bonds and 30-year Bonds will be issued every month. (Note2) Auction method for 40-year Bonds is Dutch-style-yield-competitive auction (0.5bp bidding scale). (Note3) The immediate reopening rule applies to 5-year Bonds as before. (Note4) The plan could be changed owing to market conditions and others. (Source) https:/www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/press_release/20190326-01e.htm
Maturity Issue Month Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2019 Aug-2019 Sep-2019
Issue No.
Maturity Month
Issue No.
Maturity Month
Issue No.
Maturity Month
Issue No. - No.12 - No.12 - No.12Maturity Month - Mar-2059 - Mar-2059 - Mar-2059
Maturity Issue Month Oct-2019 Nov-2019 Dec-2019 Jan-2020 Feb-2020 Mar-2020
Issue No.
Maturity Month
Issue No.
Maturity Month
Issue No.
Maturity Month
Issue No. - No.12 - No.12 - No.12Maturity Month - Mar-2059 - Mar-2059 - Mar-2059
Jun-2039
Jun-2049
No.354
No.168
No.62
Mar-2029
Mar-2039
Mar-2049
Jun-2029No.355
No.169
No.63
10
20
30
40
10
20
30
40
No.356
Dec-2049No.65
Dec-2039No.171
Dec-2029No.357
Sep-2049No.64
Sep-2039No.170
Sep-2029
1. Breakdown by JGBs (including T-Bills) Holders (end of Dec. 2018)
On March 19, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the Flow of Funds Accounts of the 4th Quarter
2018. The shares of JGBs (including T-Bills, hereinafter referred to as “JGBs”) holders were
updated as follows:
BOJ increased its holdings of JGBs by 8.1 trillion yen to 477.5 trillion yen (43.0%).
Banks, etc. decreased its holdings of JGBs by 3.0 trillion yen to 186.0 trillion yen (16.7%).
Foreigners increased its holdings of JGBs by 7.8 trillion yen to 134.4 trillion yen (12.1%).
Total ¥1,091.6 trillion Total ¥1,110.9 trillion
The end of Sep. 2018 The end of Dec. 2018
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
Monthly Topics
-4-
For more detailed data, please refer to the following: BOJ Time Series Data Search: https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html
Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Account (Preliminary Figures)”
Impact of the consumption tax hike BurdenIncrease
BurdenDecrease
Increased Burden due to the consumption tax hike as revenue sources for national and local governments : +¥5.7tn (+¥2.87tn per 1%) Approx. ¥5.7tn ー
Implementation of reduced tax rate ー Approx. ¥1.1tn
Securement of fiscal resources by revision of tobacco and income tax last year, etc. Approx. ¥0.6tn ー
Approx.¥5.2tnIncreased
Burden
Free Early Childhood Education, Enhancement of Social Security System BenefitIncrease
The implementation of Free Early Childhood Education and Childcare from Oct.1, 2019Provision of benefits for supporting low-income pensioners, etc. Approx. ¥2.8tn
The compensation to medical fees for increased consumption tax burden, etc. Approx. ¥0.4tn
Approx. ¥3.2tnBenefit
Increase
New measures to address the consumption tax hike Budget size, etc.
Temporal and Special budget measures (Point Rewards, Vouchers with premiums, Benefits for Housing Purchase “Sumai Kyu-fu kin”, Point Reward System for Promoting Innovative Housing, and Measures for Disaster Prevention, Disaster Mitigation and Building National Resilience, etc.)
Approx. ¥2.0tn(National government
spending)
Tax credit (Expansion of housing loan tax credit, Reduction of tax burden on purchase and possession of automobiles)
Approx. ¥0.3tn(Tax reduction)
Mitigateeconomic impact
amount to approx. ¥2.0tn
Measures amount to approx.¥2.3tn
Measures amount to
approx. ¥2.3tnenough to
overcome this adverse impact
2. Overview of “Measures for the Consumption Tax Hike”
-5-
○ The consumption tax rate is scheduled to be increased by 2% from the current 8% to 10% on October 1, 2019 as stipulated by law.
○ Based on the previous experience with the past consumption tax hike by 3%, mobilize a range of measures and make every effort to ensure that the tax hike will not affect the trend of economic recovery. (1) Combine measures in a well-balanced manner according to their sizes and timing of implementation throughout the FY2019/FY2020 budgets, including “Temporal and Special Measures”, and firmly maintain fiscal discipline as a whole (2) Clarify the objectives of each measure, (3) Implement measures with sufficient consideration on their values for future and economic structural reforms
〇 Provide clearly understandable information on the importance of consumption tax hike and the details of mitigating measures, etc.
Basic Concept
Economic impact of this consumption tax hike is estimated to be approx. ¥2.0tn, suppressed by mitigating measures such as free early childhood education, etc. New measures, amounting to approx. ¥2.3tn, are prepared enough to overcome this adverse impact.
(Note) Figures are under careful examination.
(Source) Presented by Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy in the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) on December 20, 2018.
Impact of the Consumption Tax Hike
On March 4, 2019, Mr. Ohata, Director for Debt Management and JGB Investor Relations, attended a panel discussion at the Japan Securities Summit 2019 in London, co-hosted by the Japan Securities Dealers Association and the International Capital Market Association. The topic of the panel was “Japanese Economy: The Road towards Sustainable Growth.” Mr. Ohata explained the fiscal policy and public debt management in Japan.
In addition to attending the event, Mr. Ohata and Ms. Sato, visited London, Copenhagen and Helsinki to meet with various investors and debt management authorities. During these meetings, the team exchanged their views on the Japanese economy, JGB market and debt management policy. Thanks to their broad knowledge of Japan and deep insight into financial markets, the meetings were very stimulating and informative. We are very grateful for their cooperation and generosity.
In the middle of March, Mr. Minowa, Deputy Director of the
Debt Management Policy Division, and Mr. Ando, Section Chief, visited Washington, D.C., NY and Toronto to have meetings with investors, international organizations and debt management authorities. They made presentations mainly about the JGB issuance plan for FY2019, the JGB market and the steady Japanese economic growth. Supported by the investors’ ample knowledge on the Japanese economy and JGBs, the discussions were all the more fruitful. We appreciate their warm welcome and look forward to seeing them again.
IR Office
If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]
-6-
Auction Results (Bonds)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date Nominal
Coupon
Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered
/Accepted (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen)
1/8/2019 10-year 353 12/20/2028 0.1% 7,150.9 1,769.5 0.016% 0.015% 0.269 428.3 37.2 1/10/2019 30-year 61 12/20/2048 0.7% 2,269.7 563.6 0.716% 0.715% - 135.5 63.1 1/16/2019 5-year 138 12/20/2023 0.1% 8,344.3 1,621.5 ▲0.144% ▲0.144% - 377.7 299.1 1/24/2019 20-year 167 12/20/2038 0.5% 3,661.8 800.9 0.469% 0.467% - 198.2 134.2 1/29/2019 40-year 11 3/20/2058 0.8% 1,512.7 399.5 0.740% - - - - 1/31/2019 2-year 397 2/1/2021 0.1% 10,340.1 1,702.0 ▲0.166% ▲0.167% - 396.9 171.1 2/5/2019 10-year 353 12/20/2028 0.1% 8,494.0 1,770.2 ▲0.012% ▲0.013% 0.265 428.5 328.9 2/7/2019 30-year 61 12/20/2048 0.7% 2,658.9 563.4 0.589% 0.587% - 135.7 - 2/13/2019 5-year 138 12/20/2023 0.1% 7,858.7 1,623.0 ▲0.149% ▲0.151% - 376.4 298.6 2/15/2019 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 23 3/10/2028 0.1% 1,336.1 399.6 ▲0.287% - - - 22.2 2/19/2019 20-year 167 12/20/2038 0.5% 3,731.1 799.6 0.423% 0.419% - 199.1 118.8 2/28/2019 2-year 398 3/1/2021 0.1% 9,018.6 1,712.4 ▲0.151% ▲0.154% - 387.2 7.6 3/5/2019 10-year 353 12/20/2028 0.1% 7,609.5 1,790.2 0.000% ▲0.002% 0.278 408.6 33.8 3/7/2019 30-year 61 12/20/2048 0.7% 2,585.0 566.8 0.624% 0.621% - 132.1 40.8 3/12/2019 5-year 138 12/20/2023 0.1% 7,660.3 1,625.5 ▲0.155% ▲0.157% - 373.5 254.0 3/19/2019 20-year 167 12/20/2038 0.5% 3,906.3 807.6 0.393% 0.391% - 191.1 144.7 3/26/2019 40-year 11 3/20/2058 0.8% 1,398.4 399.2 0.610% - - - 14.1 3/28/2019 2-year 399 4/1/2021 0.1% 8,564.8 1,621.9 ▲0.174% ▲0.175% - 377.7 228.1
Auction Results (Treasury Discount Bills)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date
Amounts of Competitive Bids
(billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
1/8/2019 3-month 805 4/8/2019 14,088.96 3,547.26 ▲0.1455% ▲0.1529% 792.70 1/9/2019 6-month 806 7/10/2019 12,404.20 1,869.48 ▲0.1410% ▲0.1410% 430.50 1/11/2019 3-month 807 4/15/2019 15,178.20 3,514.63 ▲0.1459% ▲0.1504% 825.30 1/17/2019 1-year 808 1/20/2020 8,855.50 1,700.99 ▲0.1741% ▲0.1781% 399.00 1/18/2019 3-month 809 4/22/2019 13,403.10 3,513.75 ▲0.1804% ▲0.1880% 826.20 1/25/2019 3-month 810 5/9/2019 17,491.30 3,513.77 ▲0.1878% ▲0.1932% 826.20 2/1/2019 3-month 811 5/13/2019 12,668.05 3,511.47 ▲0.2307% ▲0.2653% 828.50 2/7/2019 6-month 812 8/13/2019 8,664.10 1,861.04 ▲0.1943% ▲0.2043% 438.90 2/8/2019 3-month 813 5/20/2019 13,855.20 3,511.05 ▲0.2012% ▲0.2158% 828.90 2/15/2019 3-month 814 5/27/2019 14,064.35 3,520.85 ▲0.1954% ▲0.2106% 819.10 2/19/2019 1-year 815 2/20/2020 8,352.20 1,541.75 ▲0.1886% ▲0.1906% 358.20 2/22/2019 3-month 816 6/3/2019 13,622.38 3,520.86 ▲0.2065% ▲0.2207% 819.10 3/1/2019 3-month 817 6/10/2019 14,143.50 3,526.49 ▲0.1489% ▲0.1623% 833.50 3/7/2019 6-month 818 9/10/2019 8,748.00 1,869.08 ▲0.1375% ▲0.1435% 430.90 3/8/2019 3-month 819 6/17/2019 12,828.30 3,511.07 ▲0.1210% ▲0.1291% 828.90 3/14/2019 3-month 820 6/24/2019 12,749.50 3,520.85 ▲0.1358% ▲0.1437% 819.10 3/19/2019 1-year 821 3/23/2020 7,431.50 1,553.38 ▲0.1747% ▲0.1787% 346.60 3/22/2019 3-month 822 7/1/2019 11,681.10 3,504.79 ▲0.1824% ▲0.1958% 815.20
Auction Calendar for Apr. 2019 – Jun. 2019 Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue
4/2(Tue) 10-year 4/23(Tue) 2-year 5/24(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 6/14(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)
4/3(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 5/8(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 5/24(Fri) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 1-5 years) 6/18(Tue) 5-year
4/4(Thu) 30-year 5/8(Wed) 10-year 5/28(Tue) 40-year 6/19(Wed) T-Bills (1-year)
4/5(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 5/9(Thu) T-Bills (6-month) 5/30(Thu) 2-year 6/21(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)
4/9(Tue) T-Bills (6-month) 5/10(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 5/31(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 6/25(Tue) 20-year
4/9(Tue) 5-year 5/10(Fri) 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 6/4(Tue) 10-year 6/27(Thu) 2-year
4/11(Thu) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 15.5-39 years) 5/14(Tue) 30-year 6/6(Thu) T-Bills (6-month) 6/28(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)
4/12(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 5/16(Thu) T-Bills (1-year) 6/6(Thu) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 15.5-39 years)
4/16(Tue) 20-year 5/16(Thu) 5-year 6/7(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 4/18(Thu) T-Bills (1-year) 5/17(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 6/11(Tue) Liquidity Enhancement Auction
(remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years)
4/18(Thu) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 5/20(Mon) Liquidity Enhancement Auction
(remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 6/13(Thu) T-Bills (Approx. 2-month) 4/19(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 5/22(Wed) 20-year 6/13(Thu) 30-year
Top 10 PDs by Total Purchase in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Oct. 2018 ~ Mar. 2019) 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. 6 BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited 2 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. 7 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. 3 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 8 Deutsche Securities lnc. 4 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. 9 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. 5 Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. 10 Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.
JGB Primary Market
Note.1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note.2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date. Note.3: The issue date of Treasury Discount Bills auctioned on June 13, 2019 is June 14, 2019, and the maturity date is August 2, 2019.
(Until 31 March 2019)
(Until 31 March 2019)
-7-
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
JN38
8
JN38
9
JS12
4
308
309
JL46
JN39
0
JN39
1
JN39
2
JS12
5
310
311
JL47
JN39
3
JN39
4
JN39
5
JS12
6
312
JL48
JN39
6
JN39
7
JS12
7
313
314
JL49
JL50
JS12
8
315
316
JL51
JS12
9
317
318
JL52
JS13
0
319
320
JL53
JL54
JS13
1
321
322
JL55
JS13
2
323
324
JL56
JL57
JS13
3
325
JL58
JS13
4
326
327
JL59
JL60
JS13
5
328
JL61
JS13
6
329
JL62
JL63
JS13
7
330
331
JL64
JS13
8
332
JL65
JL66 333
JL67
JL68
JL69
Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)
1 2 5(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
334
JL70
JL71 33
5JL
72 336
337
JL73
JL74 33
8JL
75JL
76JL
77 339
JL78
JL79
JL80 34
0JL
81JL
82 341
JL83
JL84 34
2JL
85JL
86JL
87 343
JL88
JL89 34
4JL
90JL
91 345
JL92 34
6JL
93JL
94 347
JL95
JL96 34
8JL
97JL
98 349
JL99 35
0JL
100
JL10
135
1JL
102
JL10
3JL
104
352
JL10
5JL
106
353
JL10
7JL
108
JL10
9JL
110
JL11
1JL
112
JL11
3JX
1JL
114
JL11
5JX
2JL
116
JL11
7JX
3JL
118
JL11
9JL
120
JL12
1JL
122
JX4
JL12
3JL
124
JL12
5JL
126
JL12
7JX
5JL
128
JL12
9JL
130
JL13
1JX
6JL
132
JL13
3JL
134
JL13
5JL
136
JX7
JL13
7JL
138
JL13
9JL
140
JX8
JL14
1JL
142
JX9
JL14
3JL
144
JX10
JL14
5JX
11JL
146
JX12
JL14
7JX
13JL
148
JX14
JL14
9JX
15JL
150
JX16
Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)
5 10 15.5(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
JL15
1
JX17
JL15
2
JX18
JL15
3
JX19
JL15
4
JX20
JL15
5
JX21
JL15
6
JX22
JL15
7
JX23
JL15
8
JX24
JL15
9
JX25
JL16
0
JX26
JL16
1
JL16
2
JX27
JL16
3
JL16
4
JX28
JL16
5
JL16
6
JX29
JL16
7
JX30
JX31
JX32
JX33
JX34
JX35
JX36
JX37
JX38
JX39
JX40
JX41
JX42
JX43
JX44
JX45
JX46
JX47
JX48
JX49
JX50
JX51
JX52
JX53
JX54
JX55
JX56
JX57
JX58
JU1
JX59
JX60
JX61
JU2
JU3
JU4
JU5
JU6
JU7
JU8
JU9
JU10
JU11
Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)(billion yen)
(Remaining maturities)15.5 20 39
Results of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions
Auction Date Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Average Accepted Spread
Highest Accepted Spread
Issues Re-opened
1/18/2019 2,090.8 598.2 0.008% 0.009% 10-year(333, 334, 335, 338, 339, 346, 347) 20-year(69, 70, 72, 88, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 99, 100, 101, 108, 110, 115, 123, 124, 148) 30-year(5, 9)
1/22/2019 2,211.8 399.0 ▲0.006% ▲0.003%
2-year(384, 387, 391) 5-year(130, 131, 134) 10-year(312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 322, 323, 324, 330) 20-year(48, 50, 56, 58, 63)
2/21/2019 2,008.0 596.1 ▲0.008% ▲0.007%
10-year(334, 335, 338, 339, 340, 341, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348, 352) 20-year(68, 70, 75, 83, 84, 90, 92, 93, 95, 96, 102, 113, 117, 122, 125, 127, 130, 133, 134, 135, 136, 139, 140, 142, 145, 146, 148, 149) 30-year(6, 7, 14)
2/26/2019 990.2 499.4 0.006% 0.012% 20-year(151, 152, 153, 154, 158, 161, 164, 165, 166) 30-year(20, 24, 26, 28, 29, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 46, 47, 57, 59) 40-year(1, 2, 5, 9)
3/14/2019 1,596.9 598.8 ▲0.002% 0.000% 10-year(333, 334, 335, 337, 338, 339, 341, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347) 20-year(68, 69, 70, 83, 84, 88, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 116, 117, 118, 128, 139, 145, 148) 30-year(1, 4, 5)
3/22/2019 1,763.6 399.6 ▲0.016% ▲0.013%
2-year(386, 387, 388, 389, 391) 5-year(123, 124, 125, 127, 129, 130, 131, 134, 135, 136) 10-year(309, 311, 312, 313, 315, 316, 317, 319, 320, 322, 323, 324, 326, 327, 329, 330, 331, 332) 20-year(45, 48, 49, 50, 51, 54, 55, 56, 60, 62, 65)
Target Zones of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions for the First Quarter of FY 2019
10-year Inflation-Indexed
Auction Date Amounts of
Competitive Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Average Accepted
Spread (yen)
Highest Accepted
Spread (yen) Issue Numbers
8/17/2018 94.8 20.0 ▲0.036 0.04 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 10/12/2018 102.6 20.1 ▲0.133 ▲0.11 18, 21, 22, 23 12/17/2018 156.4 20.0 ▲0.363 ▲0.33 22, 23 2/20/2019 129.9 20.1 ▲0.035 ▲0.02 17, 18, 19, 22, 23
Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back
①Remaining maturity : approx.1‐~5‐year
③Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐~39‐year
Note1: JN shows 2‐year JGBs. JS shows 5‐year JGBs. JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of February 2019. Note2: All issues in the graph above will be eligible afterward.
Buy-back Results
(Until 31 March 2019)
(Until 31 March 2019)
②Remaining maturity : approx.5‐~15.5‐year
-8-
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
BEI (Japan : 10 year)
BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year)
BEI (U.K. : 10 year)
Note: BEI (Japan: 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds Source: Japan: Calculation by the Ministry of Finance based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK.
U.S.A., U.K.: Bloomberg.
JGB Secondary Market
JGB Yield Curves
Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.
Yields of JGB
Long - Term Interest Rates (10Yr) Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
-9-
Yield and Volatility (10Yr)
Break-Even Inflation Rates
Source: Bloomberg, Calculation by the Ministry of Finance
(Until 28 February 2019)
(Until 28 February 2019)
(Until 28 February 2019)
(Until 28 February 2019)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,600
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Treasury Discount BillsMedium Term BondsLong Term Bonds
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Bond-Lending
Bond-Gensaki
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)
TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)
Basic Loan Rate
Short-Term Interest Rates
Source: Bank of Japan, Japanese Bankers Association
JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)
Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures
Repurchase Transactions
-10-
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014)
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(Until 28 February 2019)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-190
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
200210220230240250260270
Apr 2013(Actual)
Feb 2019(Actual)
Monetary Base 155 497
JGBs 98 466
CP 1.4 2.3
Corporate Bonds 2.9 3.3
ETFs 1.7 24.5
J-REITs 0.13 0.51
Total Assets 175 562 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18
Total Assets
Monetary Base
JGBs
QQE2QQE(trillion yen)
Super long-term
Long-term
Medium-term
T-bills
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
City Banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Regional banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 20192018
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Life and non-life insurance companies
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Foreigners
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 20192018
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
-11-
Trends in Bank Assets by Types
Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding
Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type)
BOJ Trends
Regional Banks City Banks
Source: Bank of Japan
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
Loans
Cash and Deposits
Government Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Equities
Foreign Securities
Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
40
60
80
100
120
140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Amount of JGBHoldings (right)
Proportion of JGB Holdings (left)
(trillion yen)(%)12.1%
134.4
12.1%
34.1%
62.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)
②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market)
③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
City Banks Trust Banks Insurance Companies Foreigners
-12-
JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors
Banks(Banking Accounts) Life Insurance Companies
Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents
Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. Source: Bank of Japan
Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)
Foreign Investors Presence
Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange,
Osaka Exchange
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
(trillion yen)
Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types)
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
17.0% 17.8% 18.3% 18.2% 17.9% 17.3% 16.4% 15.1% 14.3% 13.4%
11.4%13.0% 12.5% 11.9% 12.4% 12.0% 11.1% 10.6% 10.5% 10.5%
8.9%8.5%
7.9% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 7.7% 8.2%9.2%8.4%
9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8% 8.2% 7.1%8.4%
8.8%8.4% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8% 6.8% 6.8%
5.3%
5.2%4.7%
4.9% 4.4% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2% 4.4% 5.0%
5.6%
4.9%5.2%
4.6% 4.5%5.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7%
5.5%
5.5%4.8%
4.8%5.3%
4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0%
6.2%
5.2%5.1%
5.6%4.7%
4.8% 5.2% 4.9% 5.1% 4.7%
5.0%
4.7%5.2%
4.4%4.3%
4.6% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0%
14.8%
14.4%
14.4%14.9%
15.6%16.5%
17.7% 18.4% 19.2% 19.6%
2.7%
3.6%
4.6%
5.8%
6.7%
7.5%8.3%
9.4%10.1%
11.1%
20 yrs-
10-20 yrs
9-10 yrs
8-9 yrs
7-8 yrs
6-7 yrs
5-6 yrs
4-5 yrs
3-4 yrs
2-3 yrs
1-2 yrs
-1 yr
(trillion yen)
(at the end of FY)
545.9
594.0
636.3669.9
705.0
743.9
774.1
805.4830.6
*years to maturity
Average
YTM* 6Y3M 6Y5M 6Y8M 7Y0M 7Y3M 7Y7M 8Y0M 8Y5M 8Y7M 8Y10M
Average YTM*
(excluding saving
bonds)6Y4M 6Y6M 6Y10M 7Y1M 7Y5M 7Y8M 8Y0M 8Y5M 8Y8M 8Y11M
853.2
JGB and T-Bill Holders
Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (The end of Dec. 2018 QE)
Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)” Note1: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds.” Note2: “Banks, etc.” includes “Japan Post Bank”, “Securities investment trust” and “Securities companies.” Note3: “Life and Non-life insurance, etc.” includes “Japan Post Insurance.”
(trillion yen)
Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity
T-Bill Holders
Total 97.8 trillion yen
JGB Holders
Total 1,013.1 trillion yen
Total 1,110.9 trillion yen
-13-
General Government
(ex Public Pensions)
3.4
0.3%Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
477.5
43.0%
Banks,etc.
186.0
16.7%
Life and Non-life
Insurance,etc.
209.2
18.8%
Public Pensions
45.5
4.1%
Pension Funds
31.0
2.8%
Foreigners
134.4
12.1%
Households
13.0
1.2%
Others
11.0
1.0%
General Government
(ex Public Pensions)
0.0
0.0%Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%BOJ
11.4
11.7% Banks,etc.
14.7
15.1%
Life and Non-life
Insurance,etc.
2.0
2.1%
Public Pensions
0.0
0.0%
Pension Funds
0.0
0.0%
Foreigners
69.7
71.2%
Households
0.0
0.0%
Others
0.0
0.0%
General Government
(ex Public Pensions)
3.4
0.3%Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
466.1
46.0%
Banks,etc.
171.3
16.9%
Life and Non-life
Insurance,etc.
207.1
20.4%
Public Pensions
45.5
4.5%
Pension Funds
31.0
3.1%Foreigners
64.8
6.4%
Households
13.0
1.3%Others
11.0
1.1%
28.29
108.83
87.83
60.76
64.43
51.51
40.75
42.78
39.8142.53
28.82
14.6716.42
16.19 19.04 18.8320.62 19.29
18.05 17.91
11.455.47 6.62 7.08
6.29 8.249.51
10.89 9.30 11.215.44
1.36 1.96 1.92 1.98 2.15 2.28 2.47 2.70 0.880
102030405060708090
100110120130
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
(trillion yen)
(FY)
Treasury Bills2-yr bondsJGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate)JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate)5-yr bondsInflation-Indexed bondsJGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate)10-yr bonds15-yr-floating-rate bonds20-yr bonds30-yr bonds40-yr bonds
Average remaining years to maturity: 9 years and 0 month
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,200
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
(billion yen)
(issue number)
Outstanding amount (excl.BOJ holding)BOJ holding
Types The amount of redemption at maturity Scheduled redemption date
2-Year Bonds 2,277.1 April 15
Treasury Bill 1,800.0 April 20
Total 4,077.1
Source: Ministry of Finance
Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB(Dec. 2018)
General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding
Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY2008-2017: Actual, FY2018: Supplementary budget, FY2019: Initial budget Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY2008-2017: Actual, FY2018 Supplementary budget, FY2019: Initial budget Source: Ministry of Finance
Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of the end of February, 2019)
(trillion yen)
Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in April, 2019
Note.1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of February, 2019. Note.2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs. Note.3: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors". Note.4: If the redemption date coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day. Note.5: Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.
(billion yen)
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan
-14-
545.9594.0
636.3669.9
705.0743.9
774.1805.4
830.6 853.2880.2 896.7
127.1
142.4 143.1
163.1 163.3 153.6
158.0 150.5 148.3
140.0 140.2 136.7
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Outstanding (right-hand scale)Issuance Amount (left-hand scale)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep-
14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Jan-
16
May
-16
Sep-
16
Jan-
17
May
-17
Sep-
17
Jan-
18
May
-18
Sep-
18
(Diffusion index)
Large enterprises/Manufacturing
Large enterprises/Non-Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Non-Manufacturing
1.6 2.1
1.7
-1.0 -0.5
0.9
2.0
1.6
4.3
3.9
5.0
3.3
6.1
4.9
6.1
4.0
6.0
4.6
7.0
4.3
5.9 5.0
5.7
2.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
Primary Income Trade Balance
Services Secondary Income
Current Account
5.0
-3.1-1.5
1.2
4.6
3.43.4
-0.2
3.7
-7.2
0.41.9
5.4
0.7
-0.2-1.6
2.9
0.1
0.9 0.9
3.61.8 2.5
1.6
-0.4
1.9
-2.4
1.9
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(%)
Private Demand Public Demand
Foreign Demand Real GDP
Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)
(CY)
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
(billion yen)
Monthly Quarter (Mean)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
(trillion yen)
Banknotes in Circulation
Coins in Circulation
Current Account Balances
0.3%
0.2%
-1
0
1
2
3
4(%)
CPI
CPI excluding food (excludingalcohilic beverages) and energy
Change from the previous year
Apr.4, 2013BOJ released QQE
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
(2015 average=100・Seasonally Adjusted Index)
Production Shipments
Inventory Inventory Ratio
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
(ratio)
Feb, 20191.63 times
Feb, 20192.3%
Job opening-to-application ratio(right scale)
Unemployment rate(left scale)
Aug, 20090.42times
Jul, 20095.5%
Real GDP Growth Rate
Employment Conditions
Prices
Changes in Current Account
Monetary Base Indices of Industrial Production
Total Value of Machinery Orders (Private Sector exc. Volatile orders) TANKAN (Business Conditions)
Source: Cabinet Office
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Source: Cabinet Office
(trillion yen)
Economic and Financial Trends
Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Bank of Japan
-15-
English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management
Message from the Financial Bureau As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm
About JGBs As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm
About the Debt Management Policy As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm
JGB Issuance Plan As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm
Auction Calendar
Auction Calendar Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm
Historical Data of Auction Results Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html
Topics
Product Characteristics of the JGB As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html
Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills) As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm
Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds Annual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm
Interest Rate Swap Semiannual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm
Taxation of Government Bonds As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation2016/index.html
For Individual Investors As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm
Data
Central Government Debt Quarterly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm
Interest Rate Daily https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm
STRIPS Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm
Dialogue with the market
Advisory Councils on Government Debt Management Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/gov_debt_management/index.html
Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html
Meeting of JGB Investors Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html
Publications
Debt Management Report Annual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm
JGB Newsletter Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm
Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan
Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: https://www.mof.go.jp/
To subscribe to our Newsletter mailing list, please email: [email protected]
-16-
Information