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ㅮ⩏ᴫせ ୡ⏺⤒῭༴ᶵ䛸ᮾ䜰䝆䜰⤒῭ ཧ⪃㈨ᩱ 䠄ヂ∧䠅 䈜ㅮ₇䛿䠈ⱥㄒ∧㈨ᩱ䜢⏝䛔䜎䛩䚹 August 2009 JUNG Ku-Hyun Samsung Economic Research Institute

Otaru University of Commerce

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Page 1: Otaru University of Commerce

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August 2009

JUNG Ku-HyunSamsung Economic Research Institute

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VIX Index

Real Economy Citi, GMCrisis

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45

55

65

75

08/1/1 08/3/1 08/5/1 08/7/1 08/9/1 08/11/1 09/1/1 09/3/1 09/5/1

6/128.9

32.2428.54

Bear StearnsCrisis of GSEs

31.01

Monoline 36.22

Lehman Brothers Chapter 11

70.33

Real Economy Nosedived Crisis

80.86

32.1

Stress Test ofAmerican Banks

Page 4: Otaru University of Commerce

600

700

800

250

300

NASDAQ(1995.1 = 100)

Housing index(1995.1 = 100)

WTI spot(2002.1 = 100)

IT���

<=>?@ABC;DEFG�H�IJ��K=LM

Bubble Cycles

3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 200850

100

150

200

* source : Global Insight

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-15

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0

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1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

(yoy: %)

Slump + Recovery

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KOSPI : 1,435.26 (2007.1.2) � 1,360.54 (2009.6.23)

Won/USD : 925.6 (2007.1. 2) � 1,372.80(2009.6.23)

1,800

2,000

2,200

1,800

2,000

2,200

KOSPI

KOSPI Won/USD

8

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2007.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 2009.6

Won/USD

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22.6 30.562.8 71.9 69.4

337.0

23.8 31.560.7 72.4

92.3

361.4

USA Japan China Germany Korea Singapore

2007 2008� Foreign Trade/GDP (%)

9

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

19.6

42.0

32.4

28.8

37.3

39.740.1

3636.6

30.1

21.9

29.3

2009 6

� Foreign Investors’ Share in Equity Market(%)

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10

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-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

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2007 2008 2009

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Export Growth GDP Growth

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ! � " # $ % � & ' ( � ) * + , � - � . / 0 ! . 1 2 3 � 4 � � � ! � 5 6 � � 7 8 � 9 : � x � � � 6 8 " ; < = � � � � � � > ? ! @ A ! � 5 6 � �

30

40

800

1,200

Exports Growth

Imports Growth

(US$100 mil.)(Year-on-year growth, %)

Net Exports � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ! � " # $ % � & ' ( � ) * + , � - � . / 0 ! . 1 2 3 � 4 � � � ! � 5 6 � � 7 8 � 9 : � x � � � 6 8 " ; < = � � � � � � > ? ! @ A ! � 5 6 � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ! � " # $ % � & ' ( � ) * + , � - � . / 0 ! . 1 2 3 � 4 � � � ! � 5 6 � � 7 8 � 9 : � x � � � 6 8 " ; < = � � � � � � > ? ! @ A ! � 5 6 � �16

18

Year-on-Year

(%)

Year-on-Year

(%)

14

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

-1,200

-

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0

400

800

2007 2008 2009

-

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-

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4

6

8

10

12

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Year-on-Year

Quarter-on-Quarter

2007 2008 2009

Year-on-Year

Quarter-on-Quarter

Page 16: Otaru University of Commerce

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China’s GDP Components

15

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

ConsumptionWage

Weights of Consumption and Wages to GDP

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Quarter on Quarter Year on Year

(%)

6.0

3.0

0.0

(%)

4.0

2.0

18

Net Exports

Gov’t Expenditures

Private Investment

Private Consumption

0.0

-3.0

-6.0

-9.0

-12.0

-15.0

2005

GDP growth rate

2006 2007 2008 20092005

-10.0

Net Exports

Gov’t Expenditures

Private Investment

Private Consumption

GDP growth rate

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Toyota

20

40

80

Japanese companies

Korean companies

Revenue (U.S. $.billion))

Honda

27

10

20

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

OperatingProfit Margin(%)

Honda

Sony Panasonic

Nippon Steel

Canon

Samsung Elec.

Mitsubishi Heavy

POSCOHyundai Heavy

LG Elec.

Hyundai Motor

note1: Sales revenues were converted into dollars by multiplying quarterly average of won/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates.2: Sales revenues of Korean companies were based on parent-only financial statements and those of Japanese companies were

based on consolidated financial statements.Source: KIS-Value (Korean companies), Thomson One Banker (Japanese Companies)

Page 29: Otaru University of Commerce

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