LAST UPDATED: August 7, 2020Phoebe Fleming, Director of Research

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW*COVID-19 SPECIAL EDITION*

Orlando MSA Market Overview – COVID-19 Special Edition

• The US economy experienced the “sharpest contraction in modern American history” in Q2 based on new estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth declined at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2, due to stay at home orders and reduced spending and investment. Annualized rates, how GDP numbers are typically reported, can over or understate impacts in volatile times. Overall, the U.S. economy was 9.5 percent smaller compared to Q2 of 2019.

• This special edition of the Orlando MSA Market Overview analyzes select, high-frequency, labor market indicators, published with a one-month lag, that will signal worsening or better employment outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.

orlando.org/covid19

orlando.org/covid19

High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA

Unemployment Rate

Monthly

New Claims for Unemployment

Insurance

Weekly

Month to Month Job Change

Monthly

16.5%-4.6 % MoM

7,431-17.5% WoW

Week of July 25June

30,700+2.8% MoM-12.9% YoY

May-June

Weekly

5,556-6.2% WoW

August 1

Source: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

1. 2. 3. 4.

Week to Week Job Postings

16.5

10.2

11.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020

Olrando MSA USA USA Possible Rate

orlando.org/covid19

1) Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Orlando July Data – Aug 21

Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for July is 10.2% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it could be up to 1 point higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.

10.3

14.3

17.2

22.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020

Seminole Lake Orange Osceola

orlando.org/covid19

1) Unemployment Rate - Counties

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: August 21

506,670

207,707

73,955

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020 7/4/2020

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, FloridaJan. 2020- Aug. 1, 2020

6,211,406

1,186,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020 7/4/2020

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, USAJan. 2020- Aug. 1, 2020

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: US Dept of Labor

Next Update: Data released weekly

607

35,595

56,030

36,453

28,548

11,307

7,721

10,256 9,006 7,431

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSAMarch 7- July 25, 2020

Weekly Data 3 Week Moving Average

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Data released weekly

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando CountiesMarch 7 - July 25, 2020

Orange Osceola Seminole Lake

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

0 400 600 800

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0 1,500 1,500

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29,200

1,700

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

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1- Month Change in EmploymentMay-June 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

orlando.org/covid19

3) Month to Month Job Change - By Industry

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: July data released August 21

4) Job Postings – Time Series Analysis

orlando.org/covid19

7,856

5,303

4,736

4,226 4,219

3,507 3,718

4,634 4,281 4,107

5,475 5,4795,726

6,221

7,430

5,385

4,368

6,001 5,925

5,556

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Total Online Job AdsOrlando MSA, by Week Posted

Source: Burning Glass

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning Glass

4) Job Postings – Top Industries

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Top 10 Posting IndustriesOrlando MSA, by Week Posted

Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services

Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Finance and Insurance Manufacturing

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Information

Educational Services Transportation and Warehousing

2,661

2,619

2,342

1,702

1,502

1,304

1,276

1,171

1,104

957

924

906

853

830

779

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Registered Nurses

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products

Retail Salespersons

Customer Service Representatives

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Software Developers, Applications

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Managers, All Other

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Security Guards

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive

Medical and Health Services Managers

Food Service Managers

Jobs in Greatest DemandOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending August 1, 2020

4) Job Postings – Top Jobs in Demand

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning-Glass

734

576

529

497

471

434

290

247

228

227

183

171

162

142

142

0 200 400 600 800

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Orlando Regional Healthcare

Adventhealth

Lowe's Companies, Inc

Orange County Public Schools

Anthem Blue Cross

School District Of Osceola County

Hospital Corporation of America

Healthcare Travelers

Allied Universal

Deloitte

Walmart / Sam's

The Gypsy Nurse

The Home Depot Incorporated

CVS Health

Employers With Most Job OpeningsOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending August 6, 2020

4) Job Postings – Top Employers

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning Glass

Key Takeaways• The USA unemployment rate fell modestly to 10.2% in July, while the economy added 1.8 million jobs.

Notable job gains occurred in Leisure and Hospitality, Government, Retail Trade, Professional and Business Services, Other Services and Health Care. In June, the economy added 4.8 million jobs, 3 million more than this month, signaling a slowdown in the recovery’s momentum as surges in case numbers impact the job market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of unemployed persons on temporary layoff decreased by 1.3 million to 9.2 million while the number of permanent job losers remained unchanged at 2.9 million.

• New claims for unemployment insurance saw a decrease in both Florida and the USA (slide 6). The number of USA claims has yet to fall below 1 million a week since it was first recorded at 2.9 million in late March. In Florida, weekly data are bouncing along, but have yet to level or bottom out. The previous two weeks of drops in Florida hopefully point to further declines. In the Orlando MSA, claims for unemployment are slowly declining, with a three-week moving average of roughly 9,000 claims per week.

• Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. In the most recent week, job postings fell by six percent. Slide 11 shows this information broken out by top industries. Posting activity rose in retail trade and education but fell in health care, the major contributor to movements in overall posting activity. Employers in the public education and hospital and health care industries continue to be the major job posters in the region. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.