Origins of Research Questions and Process

What do research projects look like?

Types of social research

1. DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH: (who, where, when and what)

2. EXPLORATORY RESEARCH: (Identifying patterns and relationships)

3. EXPLANATORY RESEARCH: (model development and testing)

4. EVALUATION RESEARCH: ( seeks to determine cause and effect of policy or programs)

Research Process

1. Identify Research Question.

2. Review literature on that topic.

3. Form theory and hypotheses if explanatory study.

4. Construct Research Design.

5. Test.

6. Conclude: Review and Implications.

Origin of Research Questions

Real-World stimuli Curiosity Imagination Reformulation of research questions in

a literature. Evaluation of Public Policies

Even though we may be thinking theoretically by beginning to relate concepts to each other, we still need to make a professional jump to a scientific research program.

This is a necessary step before we begin to more formally think about a problem and know we can make a contribution.

How do we know we can make a contribution and how?

Answer: Undertake a review of the literature.

Purpose of Literature ReviewsPurpose of Literature Reviews

Lit reviews reveal the scientific community researching a given topic. In doing so establishes certain research questions as important (albeit sometimes subject to fads).

Research questions should also be compelling to real world, naturally.

To devise a research project without reviewing lit may result in redundant and insignificant research of interest to no one.

Goals of A Lit ReviewGoals of A Lit Review

1. Again, identify a community of scholars.

2. Establishes your work in this community.

3. In doing so, survey variety of theories, methods, etc. in other work.

4. Reformulate your question relative to other work.

5. Form your work to be commensurate with others in regard to paradigms, conventions, theory, and data.

• Explanation relies on theory.

What is a theory?

A theory is a postulation based on logical suppositions that explain generalizations.

Theories answer “Why” questions.

Theory and TestingTheory and Testing

• Using systematic methodologies and theories help us learn about the world.

• We begin by describing our problem and then move on to explaining our phenomenon of interest.

• We do this by constructing theories and testing them.

With Theory we Generalize and TestWith Theory we Generalize and Test

No theory can be completely correct.

2. Theories are simplifications of reality.

3. The goal is to seek general patterns.

4. Theories specify cause and effect relationships between variables. X causes Y

Important traits of theoriesImportant traits of theories

Theories and ConceptsTheories and Concepts

Theories order concepts as variables specifying directional relationships. For example, education (X) increases income

(Y). Income (X) increases chance and individual

votes Republican (Y).

We test our theories by testing hypotheses. Hypotheses are general propositions (assertions).

For example,

H1: Dictatorships get into more wars than democracies.

The Hypothesis

Testable Propositions linking theory to knowledge

HypothesesHypotheses

A hypothesis is a testable proposition that formalizes the expectations of a theory.

It does this by stating the relationships of variables in a theory.

One theory may produce several hypotheses, each tested singularly.

Hypotheses continuedHypotheses continued

Hypotheses are usually stated as direct or inverse relationships, especially if they are your own, and not the null.

Hypotheses state how one variable affects another variable, in other words how the Dependent Variable is affected by an Independent Variable.

We seek to discredit the Null Hypothesis, which states that there is no relationship between the two given variables.

For Example:

H1: State economic development increases democracy. Direct relationship (inverse relationship would be dev decreases dem)

H0: There is no relationship between Economic development and democracy. (Null hypothesis, note not stated in negative or inverse)

Which are the independent and dependent variables?

Relationships between variables

Direct or positive relationship

Inverse or negative relationship

No relationship

X

Y

0

Hypotheses continuedHypotheses continued

The variable being affected is the dependent variable, and the affecter is the independent variable.

Other names for dependent variable is the outcome variable or Y.

Names for independent variables include explanatory, covariates, X.

Cause & effect Cause & effect

SINGLE CAUSE

X Y

MULTIPLE CAUSE

X1

X2

X3

Y

SIMULTANEOUS CAUSE

X Y

INDIRECT CAUSE

X Z Y

Issue of CausalityIssue of Causality

It is common to say something causes something else, although we tend to use this word loosely. A proper synonym is AFFECT.

Causality is a deep issue that cannot really be true in its most literal meaning, which would be deterministic and not suitable for social science.

For example, Wealth causes Republican Party membership. (wealth=Republican) or wealthy individuals must be Republican!!

OrBecause Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, they will

use them against the USA.

Issue of CausalityIssue of Causality

By cause, we usually mean that some variable AFFECTS another.

It is best to use language and methods related to probability theory. How much does an increase in X affect Y, and how strong is this effect?

The issue of Causality and lack of absolutism of science are similar.

In the same way that we can not prove theories to be absolutely true, we can never be absolutely sure one variable is affecting another.

For this reason, it is more appropriate to say that a X variable increases or decreases the likelihood of a change in the Y variable with some probability, even if very high or low.

Correlative Hypotheses

Hypotheses may also speculate about whether two variables are related but not venture a guess to which affects which.

This is a question of association where correlation is useful, but is descriptive and not relational or explanatory. Education and wealth are highly related. Poverty and crime are related. Democracy and National Wealth are related.

Research Design

The next few weeks discuss matters of research design and later the evaluation and interpretation of results.