Organic Agriculture and Food Security · 2020. 4. 28. · Rice. Wheat. Price developments since 2000 PAS Study Week 2009 7 ... • Biofuels gain in importance • Demand increases

Global food security and natural resource scarcities: what are

sustainable strategies?

Matin Qaim Dept. of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

Draft presentation for Winter School of Volkswagen Foundation “Limits to Growth Revisited”, November 2012

Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

870 m people are undernourished

Source: FAO (2012).

2

Asia 65%

Latin America 6%

Industrial countries

2%

Africa 27%


2800 kcal 2100 kcal

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Today 2050

Kca

l per

cap

ita

Hunger is a distribution problem

Measures to reduce poverty: • Economic growth • Education • Infrastructure • Social security • Good governance • Avoid strong food price

increases

Recommended

3

About 1 billion are overnourished worldwide.


2800 kcal 2100 kcal

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Today 2050

Kca

l per

cap

ita

Hunger is also a production problem

Recommended

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100

150

200

250

300

350

1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010

Inde

x

Arable land

Population

Food production

Global developments since 1960

PAS Study Week 2009 5

Source: FAO (2012).


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

US

$/t

Rice Wheat Maize

Price developments from 1960 to 2000


Source: World Bank (2008).


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Ja

n-00 Ju

lJa

n-01 Ju

lJa

n-02 Ju

lJa

n-03 Ju

lJa

n-04 Ju

lJa

n-05 Ju

lJa

n-06 Ju

lJa

n-07 Ju

lJa

n-08 Ju

lJa

n-09 Ju

lJa

n-10 Ju

lJa

n-11 Ju

lJa

n-12 Ju

l

US$

/t

MaizeRiceWheat

Price developments since 2000


Source: FAO (2012).

Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development 8

Nutrition effects of price increases

Iron Zinc Riboflavin (B2)

Source: Ecker und Qaim (2011).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Calories

Pre

vale

nce

of d

efic

ienc

y (%

)

w/o price increase With price increase

50% maize price increase in Malawi


700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1990 2000 2005 2008 2012

Und

erno

uris

hed

(mill

ions

) Development of FAO hunger statistics

Source: FAO (2012).

9


How do future trends for food demand and supply look like?



Demand projections until 2050

Today 2030 2050

World population (billion) 7.0 8.3 9.3

Industrial countries (billion) 1.2 1.3 1.3

Developing countries (billion) 5.8 7.0 8.0

Income growth in developing countries: • Per capita demand for food increases. • More meat and other animal products are consumed.

Population trends

Demand for food and feed is projected to grow by 70% until 2050.


Use of bioenergy • Biofuels gain in importance • Demand increases through: Rising crude oil prices Political support (not only in

EU and USA)

Until 2050, total demand for agricultural products (food, feed, fiber, and fuel) could easily double.

This would imply an annual demand growth of 1.8%.

• Projection until 2020: 15% of global maize and vegetable oil, 30% of cane sugar to be used for biofuels

Photo: F. Isermeyer

12


Challenges for food supply


“In the next 50 years we will need to produce as much food as has been consumed over our entire human history.”

Megan Clark CEO

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia


How can global supply be increased?

Global production

=

Arable land X Yield

• Irrigation • Chemical inputs • Technical

progress

• Limited potential still available

• But increasing environmental costs

14


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Aver

age

grow

th ra

te (%

) Growth rates in worldwide cereal yields

Source: FAO (2012).

15


Shortcomings in agricultural research

Growth in worldwide agricultural research investments has been declining since the mid-1990s.

Especially in industrial countries, yield growth is not the top priority in agricultural research anymore.

16


Yield effects of climate change until 2050

Source: CSIRO (2010) IFPRI (2011).

17

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Rice Wheat Maize

% Developing countries

Industrial countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Glo

bal c

erea

l yie

ld (t

/ha)

Challenges until 2050

Demand projection

Resource scarcity

Climate change

Research and technology

18


What type of technologies?

Technologies have to be sustainable

Sustainability requires scarce resources to be used as efficiently as possible

In the public „sustainable agriculture" is often misunderstood as traditional, low-input production

Too many entrenched views (organic farming vs. GMOs etc.)

Sustainable production systems require a smart combination of all areas of science, including new technologies

19


Beyond increasing supply, what about influencing demand?

For example: Meat consumption Biofuels

20

We have done some very simple simulations, analyzing scenario impacts on the number of undernourished.


Mechanisms for simulations

21

Price

Quantity

Food Feed

Food

Grain market

Example: Reduction in meat consumption

S D

1. Grain demand for direct consumption increases

2. Demand for feed decreases

3. Lower prices, lower supply

4. Quantity available for food use increases


870 866 845 805

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Status Quo D -50% EU -50% OECD -50%

Und

erno

uris

hed

(mill

ions

) Results of simulations

22

-7% -3% -0.5%

Reduction in meat consumption


870 845 789

912

1084

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Status Quo EU 0% OECD 0% EU 10% OECD 10%

Und

erno

uris

hed

(mill

ions

) Biofuels

23

-9% +25% +5% -3%


Nevertheless, production needs to be increased, but where?

almost all hungry people live, almost all of the population growth takes place, the projected negative impacts of climate change are

particularly strong.

Agricultural growth in developing countries is of particular importance, because this is where:

In addition, around 75% of all hungry people live in rural areas of developing countries.

Agricultural growth in the small farm sector helps to increase poor people’s incomes, thus reducing poverty and inequality.


What suits the small farm sector?

New technology for rice

Agronomic innovation: less water, fewer inputs, more labor

25

Requires intensive training and extension

Up to 50% higher yields in some situations

Source: Noltze, Schwarze, Qaim (2012)

System of Rice Intensification (SRI) in Timor Leste


GM cotton (Bt) in India: income effects

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

- Extremely poor Moderately poor Non poor

All households

Bt Conventional

US

$/ha

$250/ha

Source: Subramanian and Qaim (2010).


-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Industrial Africa Asia Latin America

Mill

ion

tons

20102050 (projection)

Industrial countries have to contribute to global supplies, too

Net exports in cereal trade

27


870

979

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Status Quo EU27 Cereal productivity of 1980

Und

erno

uris

hed

(mill

ions

) Role of productivity in EU agriculture

28

+13%


Conclusion 1. Hunger is still a very widespread problem, involving both

issues of distribution and production.

2. Currently, food supply is growing slower than demand.

3. More sustainable consumption is important.

4. Required production increases are a huge challenge, but possible with more research, technology, and innovation.

5. Ideological barriers have to be overcome.

6. The small farm sector in developing countries needs special attention to reduce hunger and poverty.

7. But also agriculture in rich countries plays an important role. Food security and resource scarcities are global issues.

Documents

Organic Agriculture and Food Security · 2020. 4. 28. · Rice. Wheat. Price developments since 2000 PAS Study Week 2009 7 ... • Biofuels gain in importance • Demand increases