Options on Crop Production for CopingWith Climate Change in South Asia

Anil Kumar SinghDeputy Director General (NRM)

Indian Council of Agricultural ResearchNew Delhi 110 012

________________________________________________Paper presented at the International Symposium on Climate Change & Food Security in South Asia, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Agriculture profile in South Asia

Country Gross cropped area Million ha

Major Crops Agriculture’s contribution to GDP (%)

India 180.10 Rice, Wheat, Maize, Pulses,Oil crops Sugarcane

21.13

Pakistan 27.07 Rice, wheat, MaizeSugar

22.35

Bangladesh 7.01 Rice, Jute, Maize

21.40

Sri Lanka 2.35 Rice, Tea rubber Coconut

17.81

Nepal 4.22 Wheat, Rice, Maize 40.28

Significant change likely on key parameters with business as usual scenario, eg. India

Year Season Temperature Change (oC)

Rainfall Change (%)

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

2020s AnnualRabiKharif

1.001.080.87

1.411.541.17

2.16-1.95 1.81

5.974.365.10

2050s AnnualRabiKharif

2.232.541.81

2.873.182.37

5.36-9.227.18

9.343.82

10.52

2080s AnnualRabiKharif

3.534.142.91

5.556.314.62

7.48-24.84 10.10

9.90-4.5015.18

Source : Lal M, 2001, Current Science 81, 1205

• Increased temperature, heat waves and cold waves directly affecting the crop performance

• Extreme rainfall events causing more droughts, floods which reduce crop yields and indirectly affect water availability for agriculture

• Inundation of coastal areas with sea water

• Increased incidence of pests and diseases

• Rapid oxidation of soil organic carbon and its effect on soil fertility

Key issues in crop production under climate change scenario in South Asia

Impacts on Crop Production

Scenarios and ImpactsCountry Scenarios Key impacts

Temperature Rainfall

India 0.74o increase last century, pronounced warming during post monsoon and winter

Increased frequency of floodsduring the monsoon and decrease in winter precipitation. Lower number of rainy days

Fast retreat of Himalayan glaciers, frequent floods in IGP.Decrease in LGP and decrease in crop yieldsYield reduction in wheat, rice and maize due to temperature rise

Nepal 0.09oC/yr in Himalayan 0.04oC in Terai region in winter

No distinct long term trends Glacier lake outburst, floods due to glacial meltSoil loss due to floodsIncrease in wheat and maize yields due to temp. rise

Pakistan 0.6o to 1o rise in mean temp. in coastal areas

Increase in summer and winter rainfall in northern Pakistan and 10-15% decrease in coastal belt and arid plains

Wheat and cotton production decrease due to both increased temperature and decreased water availability

Srilanka 0.2oC/year increase in central highlands

Increasing trend in February and decreasing trend in June

More intense floods, increased temperature and prolonged drought spells decrease the coarse grains tea and coconut production

Bangladesh Increasing trend of 1o during summer and 0.5oC in winter

Annual rainfall increase with frequent floods and cyclones

Coastal region inundation, intrusion of sea water, loss of cultivated area. Rice yields to be affected by extreme weather events and salt water(Source: Kelkar and Bhadwal 2007 ; Xianfu Lu, 2007)

Crop water requirements to rise: crop duration to decrease (eg. AP in India)

Station Crop Increase in water requirement (mm)

Reduction in crop duration (weeks)

Anakapalli MaizeGroundnut

51.761.3

11

Anantapur GroundnutRed gram

70.1174.3

11

Jagityal CottonMaize

60.549.0

21

Rajendranagar Red gramGroundnut

114.573.0

21

Tirupathi Groundnut 73.0 1

Prasad Rao et al, 2008

Projected impacts quite complex depending on Combination of factors (eg. Maize in India)

Climate change scenario Good year Bad year Normal yearMaize yield

% Dev.

Maize yield

% dev.

Maize yield

% dev.

No climate change 2132 0 267 0 601 0

Increase in maximum temperature along by 1oC

2265 6.2 236 -11.7 581 -3.2

Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC

2192 2.8 254 -5.0 652 8.5

Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm 2144 0.6 275 2.9 618 2.9

Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm + increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC

2215 3.9 268 0.5 671 11.7

Increase in precipitation by 10% 2367 11.0 376 40.7 1026 70.8

Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC + increase in precipitation by 10%

2528 18.6 359 34.3 1143 90.3

Prasad Rao et al, 2008

Projections of Rice yields as influenced by climate scenarios in SW and NE monsoons periods (eg. Paddy in TamilNadu), using INFOCROP model

Githalakshmi andDheebakaran, 2008

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2 4 6 7 8 10 12 13 14Days after initiation

larv

al w

eig

ht(

g)

550ppm

700ppm

Chamber

Ambient

Influence of different levels of CO2 on growth of Spodoptera litura

Source, CRIDA, Hyderabad, India

Scenarios under most models project negative impacts even on plantation crops (eg. Tea in Sri Lanka)

GCM/Emission Scenario

National production of made-tea (kt) per annum

2025 2050 2100

Baseline 295.24 % 295.24 % 295.24 %

HadCM/A1F1 295.93 0.23 288.10 -2.42 225.45 -23.64

HadCM3/A2 296.30 0.36 291.39 -1.30 236.56 -19.87

HadCM3/B1 295.95 0.24 292.65 -0.88 256.21 -13.22

CGCM/A1F1 292.23 -1.02 286.59 -2.93 235.45 -20.25

CGCM/A2 292.54 -0.91 289.04 -2.10 236.03 -19.38

CGCM/B1 292.05 -1.08 289.92 -1.80 259.54 -12.09

CISIR0/A1F1 300.63 1.82 294.24 -0.34 227.31 -23.01

CISIRO/A2 300.98 1.94 297.09 0.63 235.63 -20.19

CISIRO/B1 300.79 1.88 298.02 0.94 256.40 -13.15

Ratnasiri et al, 2008

Adaptation and Mitigation Measures

Technology related

Policy related

Crop Based Approaches for AdaptationCrop Based Approaches for Adaptation

Crops and varieties that fit into new cropping systems and seasons

Development of varieties with changed duration

Varieties for high temperature, drought, inland salinity and submergence tolerance

Crops and varieties that tolerate coastal salinity and sea water inundation

Varieties which respond to high CO2

Varieties with high fertilizer and radiation use efficiency

Adaptation/Mitigation strategies to match the impact of climate change on crops

Direct effects Strategy

Reduction in durationEmbryo abortionSpikelet sterilityEffects on grain number and grain size

Conventional Breeding and use of biotech tools including MAS

Indirect effects

Decline in water resources

Increased pests and disease incidence

Loss of soil organic C

Conservation and efficient use of waterIPM and IDM

Conservation farming

Search for Genes for Adaptation in Search for Genes for Adaptation in AgricultureAgriculture

• Wild and extant varieties could have traits tolerant to high temperature/elevated CO2 etc.

• May have been discarded in the past due to low yield potential

• Can be used as parents for breeding of tolerant varieties to climate change

• Need for revisiting gene banks with a view to search for unique traits required for climate change

• Indigenous knowledge and farmers wisdom has immense value

Short duration drought tolerant cultivars as an adaptation strategy

Location Crop Variety DurationVaranasi Rice

PigeonpeaVandanaT-21

95150-160

Phulbani Pigeonpea T-21 150-160Arjia Maize Surya 70-75Anantapur Groundnut Vemana 105-110Indore Soybean JS-90-41 87-98Rewa Rice Kalinga-3 110Akola Cotton AKH-081 150-160Bijapur Sunflower KBSH-1 90-95Sholapur Sorghum Mauli 105-110Hisar Pearlmillet HHB-67 60-62Bangalore Fingermillet GPU-26 90-105

Source: CRIDA, Hyderabad, India

Source : CRIDA

Intercropping - a traditional approach for risk management

Intercropping will help in reducing pest incidence by increasingnatural enemy population

Effect of intercropping on Coccinellids

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

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1.2

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

Standard weeks

Popu

latio

n/pl

ant

SDP sole SDP+S

SDP+G SDP+C

MDP sole MDP+S

MDP+G MDP+C

LDP sole LDP+S

LDP+G LDP+C

The in situ culturing of natural enemies lead to reduction of insect pests in diversified crop conditions.

Sorghum, groundnut and blackgram as intercrops with pigeonpea:

Cluster bean, cowpea and greengram with castor reduced the incidence of the insect pests.

These results can go as component of Low External input IPM modules

CRIDAAgro-forestry systems to provide more stable incomes during years of extreme weather events (eg.India)

Neem + CowpeaNeem + Cowpea

Guava + styloGuava + stylo

Faidherbia Albida+SorghumFaidherbia Albida+Sorghum

Mango + GreengramMango + Greengram

Shelter belts for moderating micro climateShelter belts for moderating micro climate

Shelter belts reduce wind velocityShelter belts reduce wind velocity

Moderate temperatureModerate temperature

Reduce evaporative loss and conserve Reduce evaporative loss and conserve soil moisturesoil moisture

Resource Conservation Technologies

Strategies for Efficient Management of Soil, Water and Nutrients

Land use based on land capability

In situ moisture conservation

Rainwater harvesting and recycling

Efficient use of irrigation water

Conservation agriculture

Energy efficiency in agriculture and irrigation

Use of poor quality water

Zero-Tillage Improved Productivity at Less Cost

- -

• Saves Rs.2500/ha in bed preparation• Early sowing improves wheat yield by 5-15% • Saves water (25-30 %)• Reduces Phalaris minor (40-50 %)• Ensures timely planting

Year Area (million ha)

Savings (Rs. in million)

2000-01 0.05 125 2001-02 0.2 500 2002-03 0.3 750 2003-04 1.0 2500 Total (2000-2004) 3875

Source: NATP, Irrigated Ecosystem

Economic benefits of using zero tillage technology from 2000 to 2004

Conventional Raised Bed planting

Bed Planting: A Water-Wise Technology

• 20-25 % Saving in irrigation water

• Opportunity for crop diversification

• Suitable for mechanical weeding & reduces herbicide use

Source: NATP Irrigated Ecosystem

Zero tillage relevant in Peninsular IndiaWarangal (AP) – 10 farmers

Normal Maize Zero Till Maize

Seed rate 7 kg/acre 5kg/acre

Cost of cultivation including shelling

5500 Rs/acre 4200 Rs/acre

Yield 17 q/acre 20 q/acre

Economic returns 11400 Rs/acre 14000 Rs/acre

Profit 6400 Rs/acre 9800 Rs/acre

Source : NAIP, CRIDA

Managing sea water intrusion in coastal areas : Doruvu/Kottai technology

Traditional system Improved system

• Shallow pond

• More land required, Less water stored

• Less water for pumping

• Manually irrigated

• Small area covered

• Deep (upto 20 ft) open well

• Horizontal flow of under ground water enabled in to the well through pipes

• More water stored, less land

• More water to pump and irrigate crops

Ridges and furrows system in cotton in vertisols. Additional yield of 500 kg/ha over farmers’practice

(In situ moisture conservation and drainage)

On Farm Reservoir (OFR) technology in Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand created major impact on drought management

The Government of Chhattisgarh included this technology in the drought relief programme

On farm water harvesting

Source : NATP, CRIDA

System of Rice Intensification (SRI) – a water saving method relevant for SA countries

Attribute SRI Non SRIEffective Tillers/Total 31/32 12/13

Grains/Panicle 146 92

Yield(t/ha) 8.5 5.5

Cost of cultivation(Rs)

15578* 16500

*includes costs of weeder & marker

Traditional method

SRI method

Integrated Nutrient Management to reduce emissions in paddy eg: India

Treatment Rice yield t/ha

Denitrifi-cationLosses kg/ha

N2O Emissions kg/ha

Nitrate Leaching kg/ha

Soil Organic-C g/kg

Control 3.4 18 6.9 59 3.7

120 kg N/ha

5.6 58 12.4 94 3.7

GM20+ 32 kg N/ha

5.9 50 11.8 78 4.1

CR6+GM20+ 32 kg N/ha

5.9 52 11.8 - 4.9

LSD (0.05) 0.2 6 3.4 12 0.4

Source : CRRI, CuttakCR: Crop residue, GM: Green manure

Policy Interventions

• Redesigning social sector schemes with focus on vulnerable areas/ populations

• Introduction of new credit instruments with deferred repayment during extreme weather events

• Weather based insurance

• Incentives to farmers for adopting resource conservation

• Promoting cooperation and exchange information with countries of South Asia

Thank you