OPTIMISED SWEDISH BIOENERGY PATHWAYS Ahlgren - Presentation.pdf · SAEE, Aug 23-24, 2016, Luleå ... PowerPoint Presentation Author: Martin Börjesson Created Date: 8/31/2016 4:39:59

OPTIMISED SWEDISH

BIOENERGY PATHWAYS

Erik O. Ahlgren & Martin Börjesson Hagberg*

Dept of Energy and Environment

Chalmers University of Technology

*currently at IVL – the Swedish Environmental Research Institute

SAEE, Aug 23-24, 2016, Luleå

Introduction Method & Data Results Conclusions 01

Background - bioenergy

• In Sweden, a country with large biomass resources,

bioenergy accounts for:

– one fourth of total energy supply

– 8% of final energy use in the transport sector

• Expectations

– bioenergy contributes to reduction of GHGs and

increased energy security

– great hopes (political) for bioenergy particularly

as transport fuel

• Uncertainty

– potential limited/resource competition

– technological advances

– where best used?


Papers

• Börjesson M; Athanassiadis D; Lundmark R; Ahlgren EO (2015).

Bioenergy futures in Sweden – System effects of CO2 reduction

and fossil fuel phase-out policies. GCB Bioenergy 7: 1118-1135.

• Börjesson M; Ahlgren EO; Lundmark R; Athanassiadis D (2014).

Biofuel futures in road transport – A modeling analysis for

Sweden. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and

Environment 32: 239–252.

• Börjesson Hagberg M, Pettersson K, Ahlgren EO (2016).

Bioenergy futures in Sweden – Modeling integration scenarios

for biofuel production. Energy 109: 1026-1039.


Three parts

1. Future bioenergy scenarios under carbon constraints –

supply – demand interactions

2. The transport sector

3. Integration scenarios for biofuel production


Method & model

• Energy system modeling with MARKAL_Sweden

– bottom-up

– optimization

– elastic demand

• Scenario analysis

• Detailed biomass supply curves are integrated into

MARKAL_Sweden

– forestry residues & pulpwood: based on forestry

forecasting model “HUGIN”

– agriculture & industrial residues: based on literature

• Time horizon to 2050


MARKAL_Sweden

• All sectors of the energy system, including transport

• Competition for limited resources, such as biomass, over

sector boundaries

PRIMARY ENERGY & MATERIALSUPPLY

HEAT & ELECTRICITY GENERATION

FUEL REFINEMENT

DISTRI-BUTION

COMMERCIAL

TRANSPORT

ENERGY SERVICE & MATERIAL DEMANDS

INDUSTRY

RESIDENTIAL

Model input: Energy technology properties, resource &

emission constraints, reference energy service demands, …

Model output: Optimal mix of energy carriers & energy

technologies meeting demands


Transport module

Pulpwood

0

50

100

150

200

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100

Co

st [

EUR

/Mto

n]

Co

st [

EUR

/MW

h]

Potential [TWh/year] ([Mton/year])

2030 2050

(0) (4) (8) (12) (16) (20)


Forestry residues

- tops and branches

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 5 10 15 20 25

Co

st [

EUR

/MW

h]

Potential [TWh/year]

2030 2050


Forestry residues

- stumps

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 5 10 15 20 25

Co

st [

EUR

/MW

h]


2030 2050


Energy crops

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Co

st [

EUR

/MW

h]


Energy forest Ley/Grass Crops Cereal Crops Oilseed Crops


Main analysis scenario:

GLOB_CA (GLOBal Climate Action)

• Sweden and the world at large pursue ambitious

climate targets.

– “450 scenario” of IEA´s World Energy Outlook

• CO2 emissions of the Swedish energy system

(incl. transport) is reduced by 80% to 2050

–Emission cap linearly decreasing from 2015 to

2050


Alternative model cases: variations

regarding …

• Climate ambition – “NAT_CA” (National climate action). Higher fossil fuel prices

– “CO2_LR65” (Low CO2 reduction, -65%)

– “CO2_LR50” (Low CO2 reduction, -50%)

• Transport sector conditions – “2GEN_HC” (High cost for 2nd generation biofuel prod.)

– “EV_HC” (High costs for electric vehicles).

– “TRAF_SG” (Slow travel demand growth)

• Development for Stationary energy sector & Bio

supply

– “NUC_PO” (Nuclear power phase-out to 2030)

– “PULP_SD” (Mechanical pulp mills shut-down)

– “BIO_LS” (Low supply for biomass). No stumps


Questions and Results


1. Future bioenergy scenarios under

carbon constraints

• How will stringent CO2 reductions affect the

– future utilization and price of biomass, and

– its use in the stationary energy system and in the

transport sector, respectively?


Bioenergy supply

GLOB_CA


Industrial residues -liquors

Firewood residential Energy crops/forest

Organic waste

PulpwoodImports

Other

0

40

80

120

160

200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bio

en

erg

y s

up

ply

(T

Wh

)

Forestry residues - tops & branches

Forestry residues - stumps

Industrial residues - bark, wood waste, etc.

Biomass use per sector

GLOB_CA

Bio for Heat and

Power Production

Bio for Transport

Biofuel Production

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

GLOB_CA

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

GLOB_CA



Variations in climate ambition (CO2)

Bio for Heat and

Power Production

Bio for Transport

Biofuel Production

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

CO2_LR50 CO2_LR65 NAT_CA GLOB_CA

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

CO2_LR50 CO2_LR65 NAT_CA GLOB_CA



Variations in transport sector conditions

Bio for Heat and

Power Production

Bio for Transport

Biofuel Production


0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

2GEN_HC EV_HC TRAF_SG GLOB_CA

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

2GEN_HC EV_HC TRAF_SG GLOB_CA


Variations in stationary sector & supply

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

BIO_LS NUC_PO PULP_SD GLOB_CA

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[TW

h]

BIO_LS NUC_PO PULP_SD GLOB_CA

Bio for Heat and

Power Production

Bio for Transport

Biofuel Production


Biomass price development

All scenarios

Nuclear

phase-out

Low CO2

reduction


3. Modeling integration scenarios for

biofuel production


Which bio combines show potential for cost

efficiency from an energy system point of view?

Are different types of combines of importance for the

future bioenergy use?

Drivers bio-combines

• Several bio-based products and/or integration

with district heating or industrial systems

High energy efficiency,

but also increased complexitiy

Method additions

– Improved representation of the pulp and paper

industry, and of black liquor gasification.

– Process excess heat utilisation

2nd gen transport biofuel production in the model

Table 1.

Costs and energy balances for second generation biofuel production technologies in model

Type of fuel production Type of

feedstock

Energy input and output relations Total Eff. Inv. cost O&M cost

Biomass

(In)

Electricity

(Net out)

Transport fuel(s)

(Out)

Heat

(Out)

(MEUR/MW_in) (% of IC); (EUR/MWh f)

MeOH (SA) Wood 1.0 -0.01 0.51 0.51 1.8 4.5; 1.5

MeOH (DH) Wood 1.0 -0.02 0.51 0.12 0.61 1.8 4.5; 1.5

MeOH (BLG) Black liquor 1.0 -0.07 0.56 0.27 0.77 1.3 4.5; 1.5

DME (SA) Wood 1.0 -0.04 0.59 0.57 1.7 4.5; 1.5

DME (DH) Wood 1.0 -0.05 0.59 0.11 0.67 1.7 4.5; 1.5

DME (BLG) Black liquor 1.0 -0.07 0.57 0.26 0.76 1.3 4.5; 1.5

FTD + FTP (SA) Wood 1.0 -0.01 0.33 + 0.12 0.44 2.2 4.5; 1.5

FTD + FTP (DH) Wood 1.0 -0.08 0.33 + 0.12 0.26 0.66 2.2 4.5; 1.5

FTD + FTP (BLG) Black liquor 1.0 -0.07 0.33+0.12 0.28 0.69 1.6 4.5; 1.5

SNG (SA) Wood 1.0 0.06 0.70 0.76 1.5 4.5; 1.5

SNG (DH) Wood 1.0 0.04 0.70 0.07 0.81 1.5 4.5; 1.5

EtOH (SA) Straw 1.0 0.06 0.47 0.56 1.2 4.5; 1.5

EtOH (SA) Wood 1.0 0.13 0.34 0.47 2.1 4.5; 1.5

EtOH (DH) Wood 1.0 0.12 0.34 0.40 0.85 2.1 4.5; 1.5

EtOH + Biogas (SA) Straw 1.0 0.06 0.47 + 0.03 0.56 1.2 4.5; 1.5

EtOH + Biogas (DH) Straw 1.0 0.07 0.30 + 0.11 0.22 0.71 1.2 4.5; 1.5

EtOH + Biogas (DH) Straw 1.0 0.05 0.47 + 0.03 0.15 0.70 1.2 4.5; 1.5

EtOH + Biogas (DH) Wood 1.0 0.05 0.34 + 0.25 0.22 0.85 2.1 4.5; 1.5

SA: Stand alone; DH: heat integration district heating; BLG: black liquor gasification intergrated in P&P industry

Pulp and paper industry

• Chemical pulp

(pulp & paper industry sector divided into 6 parts)

DEMANDENERGY

BP TURBINE

ELECTRICITY (FROM GRID )

BL RECOVERY BOILER

DEMAND CHEMICALS

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

PR

OC

ESS

HEA

T (L

P/M

P)

RECOVERED CHEMICALS

PR

OC

ESS

HEA

T (

HP

)

BLACK LIQUOR

ELECTRICITY (TO GRID)

FUEL SUPPLY

TRANSPORT FUELTO MARKET

DEMANDPULPWOOD

PULPWOOD

DME

FTL

METHANOL

HCO IND BOILER

LPG IND BOILER

OIL IND BOILER

BIO IND BOILER

ELETR IND BOILER

GAS IND BOILER

BL GASIFICATIONINT COMB CYCLE

BL GASIFICATIONTO DME

BL GASIFICATIONTO FTL

BL GASIFICATIONTO METHANOL

Modeled cases - NO/YES

• HEATINT - Heat integration

• BLG - Black liquor gasification

• BIOIMP – Biomass import

• NEWNUC – New nuclear power

• ELEXP – Electricity export

Combinations modeled

Biomass use for heat, electricity and biofuel production

in a) 2035 and b) 2050

Transport fuel/electricity use in a) 2035 & b) 2050

Electricity generation in a) 2035 & b) 2050. Total bio-

based electricity generation on right axis

Unrefined wood-biomass shadow price for

model years 2020, 2035 & 2050

CO2 shadow price for model years

2020, 2035 & 2050

Change (in %) for studied factors when switching from

“NO”

to “YES”

assumptions

Findings

• High demand (and price) of biomass

• Large biomass utilisation (largest increase in transport)

• Under stringent climate targets, biomass resources will be

scarce, also in a forest-rich country as Sweden.

• Bio combines for prod of 2nd gen transport biofuels with

integration with district heating or industrial systems ...

– give a cost efficient energy system/lower cost of CO2 reduction

• in particular black liqour gasification

• but also heat integration

– but has little impact on total biomass for energy use

– has some impact on bioprice

– has large impact on how biomass is used

– has cross-sectoral effects

Acknowledgement

• Funding of this study was provided by:

Introduction Method Inputs Results Conclusions

THE SWEDISH KNOWLEDGE CENTRE FOR RENEWABLE FUELS

Thank you !

Contact:

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

OPTIMISED SWEDISH BIOENERGY PATHWAYS Ahlgren - Presentation.pdf · SAEE, Aug 23-24, 2016, Luleå ... PowerPoint Presentation Author: Martin Börjesson Created Date: 8/31/2016 4:39:59