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Optics Market Overview& Future Opportunities
Tom Hausken, PhDOSA Senior Industry Advisor
14 December 2017
The global economy is unevenGDP Annual Growthat Market Prices (%)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2017).
U.S. growth remains steady2-3% annual growth expected.Higher interest rates?“Hidden” unemployment also down.Oil prices are moderate & stable. Dollar softening.
Sources: (Left) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 29 November 2016. U.S. real q-over-q (chained, annualized, seasonally-adjusted) percent GDP growth. (Top) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 5 December 2016.
Price of foreign currencies buying U.S. dollars(normalized to Q1 2012)
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
Estimated photonics production
Source: OIDA (2017).
4.9% 4.5%
Photonics employment
China820,000 Japan
820,000
South Korea840,000
Taiwan400,000
Other countries110,000
Employment engaged in manufacturing optics and photonics components and enabled-products totals 3,500,000 worldwide.
U.S.385,000 jobs
Europe325,000
Photonics by sector
Source: OIDA (2017).
Production (Normalized
to 2013)
Growth stories
Revenues
Source: OIDA from company filings. Trumpf and II-VI values are for fiscal years ending June 30.
Laser Market: The Long View
Source: OIDA (2016) from Laser Focus World magazine issues.
Nominal sales = 13.8% CAGRGDP + Inflation = 7.5% CAGRInflation only = 4.1% CAGR
Nominal sales = 6.5% CAGRGDP + Inflation = 5.7% CAGRInflation only = 2.9% CAGR
Photonics: the long view
Source: OIDA (2016).
End-use
SystemIntegration
Component
Materials
Enabling Disciplines
Scie
nce
Tech
nolo
gy/
Appl
icat
ion
Appl
ied
Scie
nce
From science to vertical marketsRevenues and Funding
Universal drivers: Cost, automation and mobility
Applied Optics, Spectroscopy, Information Theory
Biology, Medicine (eg, DNA, proteins, cells)
Materials Science, Chemistry (eg, crystallography)
Quantum photonicsIntegrated photonics & nanophotonics
Metamaterials & plasmonicsOrganic photonic materials
Attosecond & compact x-ray sourcesPetawatt lasers & physics of high fields
Traffic &the Cloud
SWaP
Biometrics
DEW
QKD
Renewables
Perovskites
LIDAR
Imagerecognition
400G
PICs
PersonalizedMedicine
POC tools
Adv. imaging
kW lasersEUV
Quantumsensors
Industry 4.0Made in China
AR-VR
Facerecognition
“AppleEconomy”
Design
OLEDs
Follow the money: U.S. VC investment
Source: PwC/CB Insights MoneyTree. New U.S. venture investment using a 2-year rolling average, in US$ billions. OIDA estimated 2017 based on the first three quarters.
Selected developments relevantto optics and photonics
Belt and Road ProjectMade in China 2025
Quantum technologies
North America: driven by commercial economyChina and Europe: top-down policy is prominent
The “Apple Economy”:consumer products, autonomous vehicles,
IoT, AI & cloud
Industry 4.0Quantum technologies
Europe post-Brexit
Sensors and automation• LIDAR and self-driving cars, aircraft, & submersibles• Gesture recognition & “touch free” 3D imaging• Virtual and augmented reality• Face recognition and other biometrics• Robotic surgery• Humanoid robot caregivers• Robotic security and soldiers• Internet of Everything—
eg, quantum photonic sensors, atomic clocks, wearables
• New techniques: light field imaging, computational imaging
Top to bottom: U.S. Army Armed Robotic Vehicle variant of MULE. Giraffplus (European Commission project). Commercial unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV, or drone).
Ground vehicles
Sources: Omnivision illustration of automotive imaging applications, Otto self-driving truck, Toyota Prius with solar cell roof, BMW laser headlight.
Autonomous car forecast
Source: Boston Consulting Group (2015) via futurism.com.
Global LIDAR market forecasts
Source: Various sources, see text.
Revenues(US$ Billions)
Beyond self-driving cars
Sources clockwise from top left: Pop.Up proposed autonomous vehicle from Airbus,U.S. Army armed robotic vehicle variant of MULE,European Commission project Giraffplus home health aide (not using LIDAR), Neato Robotics Botvac (2017).
3 variations on stereo 3-D headsets
Source: OSA’s Optics & Photonics News, (June 2016).
AR/VR hardware revenue forecasts
Sources: See previous slides.
AR/VR hardwarerevenue
(US$ billion)
AR/VR shipments (million units)
Artificial Intelligence
Source: blogs.nvidia.com.
Life science private R&D spending
Source: (Upper left) OIDA (2017) from company financial reports. (Lower right) PwC/NVCA MoneyTreeReport; data provided from Thomson Reuters.
U.S. Dept. of Defense Outlays
Source: U.S. Department of Defense National Defense Budget Estimates for FY2018, outlays in constant (adjusted) dollars (Dec 2017).
Funding ($B)
Data source: U.S. government budget documents. All U.S. funding values represent fiscal years. Army funding for selected BA2-BA5 R&D programs. Directed energy represents selected Air Force and MDA BA1-BA3 R&D programs.
OIDA HighlightsAdvocacy
– SBIR and Plug & Play– Lobbying support – Export control revisions– AIM Photonics, BRIDG
Roadmapping workshops & reports– Integrated photonics– Sensors– Life sciences– Market Updates & other reports
Other benefits– WORKinOPTICS.com– Exhibit and advertising discounts
Also check out OSA’s Innovation School!
