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Who is the customer?
• Look at their changing environments• Look at how your proposal can
• Facilitate their work or,• Enable them to do innovative things
• We shall tackle this by taking a telecommunications service providers perspective
Key Industry shaping factors of the last decade
ConvergenceRegulatory
Policy
Grow
th inInternet Growth in
Broadban
d
Growth inM
obile.C
om b
ubbl
e
Globalisation
Debt
Managem
ent
Which trends will shape the future?
Which will be the keyfactors shaping our industry and its growth in the years to come??
• Broadband (Always on & High Speed)
• Mobile (On the move)• Web & Web services (including voice)
» Originally defined as describing any two way transmission with a speed higher than 2Mbit/s
» Today used to describe,» Always on
» Interactive (Two way)
» High speed (128K+)
What is Broadband ?
DOCSIS compliant CATV FTTH Broadband Fixed wireless access Mobile GPRS/EDGE/3G xDSL Satellite or Digital TV Terrestrial
with telco return
Shaping Broadband -The race to triple play!!
ClassicMarket
Technical Capability
2001
EstablishedMarket
TechnicalCapability
Emerging now
ClassicMarket
EstablishedMarket
ClassicMarket
EstablishedMarket
Starting
Cable
Telco
Satellite
TVBroadband
Internet/Web services Phone
The tough nut to crack, is the delivery of profitable,
High speed, broadband services, to the mass residential market
Broadband services to the mass market
Directions in Mobile
Voice to Multimedia
To anything Mobile (wireless), anytime, anywhere
Global presence with a
domestic feel
Directions in Mobile
Person to
Person
Person to Machine
Machine to Machine
Multimedia messaginge-mail
voice
Tele-metering
Remote data acquisition
Browsing
Locationservices
Instant MessagingSMS
Games Ringtones
Info servicesHealth Monitoring
m-money
Parcel tracking
Towards 3rd Generation UMTS
GSM Phase 11989/92
Basic VoiceSupplementary ServicesCall Forwarding, Call Barring Data 300 …
9600bps
GSM Phase 2 1994/95
Improved ServicesIntegrates GSM 900 & DCS 1800Half Rate Codec; Sup. Services CLIP, CLIR, Wait, Hold, Conf,
GSM Phase 2+
Yearly Releases:Release 96Release 97Release 98
UMTS
14.4 kbps data rateOptimal RoutingVoice broadcast serviceVoice group call serviceEnhanced Full Rate speech codec (EFR)Radio local loop using GSMSIM Tool KitHSCDCAMEL Ph. 1&2GPRS Ph. 1 & 2Call completion to busy subscriber (CCBS)
GSM Phase 2+
Wireless LANs StandardsIEEE 802.11 and ETSI HIPERLAN 1 & 2 Define MAC and PHY layers Support for infrastructure based and ad hoc networks Features - QOS, power save, security
IEEE 802.11 Operates in 2.4GHz ISM band up to 2Mbit/s user throughput 802.11b PHY enables up to 11Mbit/s 802.11g PHY enables up to 20Mbit/s 802.11a PHY in 5GHz band, up to 20 Mbps
HIPERLAN /2 Operates in 5GHz band up to 25Mbit/s user throughput using OFDM Link adaptation Dynamic frequency allocation Network and application independent
The threat of Wireless LAN
• No license fees• Has the potential of changing the current metered mobile
model to un-metered• Low entry barriers but business case very dependent on
roaming profiles and usage revenue• Could actually complement 3G• Enables disruptive free community networks
Terminal Evolution
• Fashion item• Multimode capability
– GSM/UMTS/Wifi/EDGE
• Colour screens• Longer battery life• More emphasis on software
features• Resemble handheld
computers
Windows Mobile
• Pocket Outlook with unified Inbox
• Contact + Calendar+ Tasks• Pocket Internet Explorer• MSN Messanger• Windows Media Player • Games • Security• Predictive Text Input • SmartDial• ActiveSync • Infrared beaming
Three clearly identified Market Stages
Stage 1Enter market
Stage 2 Gain
Market Share
Stage 3
Increase ARPU
But How?
Erosion of other Services’ revenues
mandates
For bothBroadband and Mobile
Emerging Full Services Converged Network
MultipleAccess
Networks
Multi-Services
CoreNetwork
Content/Services
Multiple User Devices & Home Networks
ATMBased
DSLAM
Internet
AsynchronousTransfer
Mode(ATM) Core
Online games
Wireless AccessFixed, WLAN, Mobile
Optical Fibre
Cell phone Television PC
Telephone
EthernetBased
DSLAM
Wireless AccessFixed, WLAN, Mobile
Optical Fibre
PSTNEnterprise
Voice and mobilityservices
Interactive TV
IP/MPLSCore
Regulatory strategies for a broadband era
Integrated Services
By a Single
Independent company
Content &Applications
layer
Platformlayer
Networklayer
Terminallayer
Telephony age
IP age
Content creation
Authentication, billing, DRM,
Packaging
Network & Services
Terminal sales
Smooth provision of diverse rich digital content
Smooth legal Delivery of
Digital content
Diversification Of delivery
channels
Variety of Terminal
equipment
Establishment of a fair competitive environment within each layer
Open relationships for service competition
Avoid monopolybut respect return on investment
Avoid monopolybut respect return on investment
Avoid exclusivitybut respect copyright ownership
Avoid exclusivitybut respect copyright ownershipCONTENT
Con
ten
tp
rovi
der
Con
ten
tp
rovi
der
Con
ten
tp
rovi
der
INFRASTRUCTURE
Infr
astr
uct
ure
pro
vid
er
Infr
astr
uct
ure
pro
vid
er
Infr
astr
uct
ure
pro
vid
er
Service ProviderService Provider
Delivery
SERVICE
End-User
Creation of servicecompetition!Delivery
Service ProviderService Provider
Service ProviderService Provider
Delivery
Open “Commercial” interfaces
Open “Commercial” interfaces
Dr. Peter Radley, Chairman &CEO Alcatel UK – LCS2001
NetworkCapacity
Fiber OpticsDoubling every 9 months
2 Mbps
155 Mbps
2,400 Mbps
Mbps
The access bottleneck
2,560,000 Mbps
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200210,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ProcessorPerformance
"Moore's Law"Doubling every 18 months
5,500,000
134,000
Number ofTransistors inIntel's Latest
Computer Chip
1,200,000
3,100,000
28,000,000
7,500,000
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
AccessSpeeds
2.4 kbps
19.2 kbps
56 kbps
Kbps
512 kbps
The "Last mile”
bottle-neck
The "Last mile”
bottle-neck
How much is enough?Dr. Peter Radley, Chairman &CEO Alcatel UK – LCS2001
• DOCSIS compliant CATV• FTTB/FTTC/FTTH• Broadband Fixed wireless access
– LMDS, MMDS, MVDS, Hiperaccess, WiMAX
• Mobile GPRS/EDGE/3G• xDSL
– ADSL, ADSL2, ADSL2+,VDSL
• Satellite or Digital TV Terrestrial + telco return• Stratospheric platforms
Menu of Access Technologies ?
The need to think “end to end”
ADSLDSLAM
Wireless AccessFixed, WLAN, Mobile
Cable
Coax
Optical Fibre
PassiveOptical
Network
Access NetworkContent/ Service
Providers
Home network& CPE
Home Network
PC Phone TV +STB
CPE
Home Network
PC Phone TV +STB
CPE
MultiserviceCore
The importance of Operations
SalesProblem Handling
Customer QOSManagement
Invoicing and collection
Order Handling
Service Planning &
Development
ServiceProblem
Management
Service Quality
Management
Rating &
Discounting
Service Configuration
NetworkPlanning &
Development
NetworkInventory
Management
Network Maintenance &
Restoration
NetworkData
Management
Network Provisioning
Achieving smooth operational processes across,– Multiple services, subsidiaries & third party
operators– Multiple delivery networks & technologies– With an end to end service delivery objective,– While ensuring regulatory compliance
The importance of software
OSS Support
Network Control via Application programmable
Interfaces
Web Services
OSA/PARLAY
Where should intelligence lie?
• Intelligence in the network, dumb periphery– Easier to operate– Cheaper customer devices– Easily accessible over
multiple access networks– Managed services
• Intelligence in the periphery, dumb network– Faster networks– More personalised usage– Builds of desktop PC– Power of the operating
system and its applications– Reduces network to bit
pushing– More tightly integrated
application and network services
The paradox of Unmetered access
• No bandwidth is ever enough
• Paradox has been enhanced by the rise in the popularity of peer to peer file sharing programs such as :-
• Kazaa
• Morpheus
• eDonkey
• Napster
• Gnutella
• iMesh
• etc.
The end of free/the start of fee
December 1999
9
9194
Paid Content
December 2000
Free Content
Music
Concerts
Sports
Financial info
Health
Youngsters andkids
on-line video
Gaming
16%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
47%Wouldn't pay
6
Revenue business model from the 100 main U.S sites (%)
Percentage of European users that are ready to pay for content. 2001
A. Vincente,” Convergence the next reality” Brussels, 2002
Delivering iVideo Services to homes
» Various CATV operators
» DSL based commercial Services» Kingston Television in Kingston upon Hull» Video-networks (UK), Free (France)» FastWeb (Italy)
» Various DSL Trials
» Interactive Digital Television Terrestrial/Satellite» Various DTT initiatives » SKY
The key question is, are iTV services profitable,
or will they become profitable?
On Line Games
• The battle for the games console market • Norrath, the setting for the online game Everquest, has been
found to be the 77th richest country in the world, sandwiched between Russia and Bulgaria.
• Online gaming has attracted millions of players and their rise in popularity in recent years is mainly down to improved graphics and more players to interact with.
• Virtual worlds exist in which people play games like Everquest, Ultima Online and Lineage.
• It is estimated that about 2.5 million people play Lineage in Korea alone and millions subscribe to other games worldwide.
• Each player pays a subscription fee, usually about $10-15 per month, to be able to take part in the game.
On Line Music
• Apple Music Store service for on line music
• MyCokemusic• Napster• Musicmatch• MusicNow• BuyMusic.com
The Promise of IPv6
• A larger address space and flexible addressing scheme
• More efficient packet forwarding
• Inherent support for secure communications
• The ability to allow differentiated services
• Better support for mobility
• Ease of management
Is IP QOS ready?What is the best migration strategy?
Open Research Issues
• Zero configuration networks• Secure multicasting & stream joining• Performance verification and metrics• IP QOS resource mgt, enforcement, implementation• Is TCP still suitable for today’s broadband networks• Should all end devices have an IP address?• Handover of QOS enabled streams• What does a network supporting 1Gbit/s per user look like?• QOS across multiples vertical and horizontal stacks
Security
Social Security - Pension Bomb
IdentityManagement
Access & PrivacyManagement
Digital RightsManagement
ThreatManagement
PKI
Measuring Fraud
Virus Protection
Intrusion Detection
Authentication
User Profiles
Encryption
Resource usage
VPN
Firewalls
CopyrightPiracy
E-commerce
Exponential Increase in security related incidents
Number of Incidents reported to CERT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Th
ou
san
ds
Year
The effective provision of security services to the mass market
The trusted network is disappearing!
Network Based Viruses
1 Mydoom.A 46,4 % 2 Netsky.D 12,5 % 3 Netsky.B 10,7 % 4 NetSky.p 9,7 % 5 Swen.A 2.0 % 6 Netsky.Q 1,8 % 7 Netsky.C 1,6 % 8 Netsky.T 1,4 % 9 Dumaru.A 1,2 % 10 Sobig.F 1,1 %
Since 1st January 2004
Is the answer NetworkBased security servicesOn behalf of the user?
Components of an IMS service?
• Strategic• Market Demographics• Packaging• Content• Middleware• Codec• Access network• Bandwidth• Set Top Box
• Billing• Competition • User Interface• End to End
networking model• Authentication• Copyright• Internet on TV• Video servers• Video on Demand
• Support• Multicasting• Home Networks• Picture quality• QOS• TR-059• Electronic
Program guide• What level of
interactivity?
The ability to transport high quality video is a critical multimedia design element
Web Services
• A Web service is a software system designed to support interoperable machine-to-machine interaction over a network.
• It has an interface described in a machine-processable format (specifically WSDL).
• Other systems interact with the Web service in a manner prescribed by its description using SOAP messages, typically conveyed using HTTP with an XML serialization in conjunction with other Web-related standards
Agents & Messages
Semantics & Discovery
Service Description
Requesters & Providers
Visions of 4G
The objective of the new forum is to formulate visions on strategic future research directions in the wireless field, among industry and academia, and to generate, identify, and promote research areas and technical trends for mobile and wireless system technologies. It is intended to constructively contribute to the work done within the UMTS Forum, ETSI, 3GPP, IETF, ITU, and other relevant bodies regarding commercial and standardisation issues derived from the research work. The forum is open to all interested parties. Members are expected to contribute papers and ideas.
http://www.wireless-world-research.org/
Building Blocks of the Wireless World
WearablesAvatars
Augmented Reality
Context & location aware
services
Security & Privacy
Heterogeneous networks, all IP
Adhoc networking
Frequency etiquettePositioningMulticarrier
HAP & BeamformingMIMO/ Space time codingFibre Supported Radio
ReconfigurableDownloadable Protocol stacks
Research in Applications
By far the largest research area
is required in the generation of
APPLICATION IDEAS
that
users value
and are willing to pay for
Distributed Systems - Middleware
• Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA)
• Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE)
• Java 2 Micro Edition (J2ME)
• Java 2 Standard Edition (J2SE)
• Microsoft .NET
Broadband Aggregation
BRAS - Implements aggregation mechanism
Service selection gateway - SSGImplements service selection mechanism
Future directions - The COPS PROTCOL
• COPS – Common Open Policy Service protocol
• Specified in IETF RFC 2748• Defined by the Resource
allocation protocol (RAP) working group
• Defines a simple query and response protocol that can be used to exchange policy information between a policy server (Policy decision point PDP) and its clients (Policy enforcement points PEPs)
Policyrepository
PDP
Internet
Users
Policy management
PEP
Technical Report DSL Forum TR-059
• Recently the DSL Forum has issued Technical Report TR-059 “DSL Evolution – Architecture requirements for support of QOS enabled IP Services”
• TR-059 aims to support– Internet streaming audio and video
– Video on demand and pay per view
– Music and movie downloads
– Online gaming
– Software as a service
– Online conferencing in multimedia
TR-059
• The goal of TR-059 is to support:-• Variable speeds• Variable traffic priority arrangements• IP QOS and multicasting• New business models that include more types of
service providers• Support for these new service parameters across
multiple connections to different service providers from a single DSL customer
Ad-Hoc/P2P Networks
• Neighbour/Peer Discovery• Routing• Security / Identity / Anonymity• QOS support• Charging• Network Management• Called Party/Content Discovery• Pervasive / Nomadic/ Wearable
computing
Clearly the end of the trusted network
Installing an iVideo capable access network
» An ADSL infrastructure delivers 2-4Mbit/s to ~ 50% of the customers.
» To increase the coverage one has to deploy more POPs, However this means that the main advantage of ADSL, namely that the copper plant is not touched is lost. At this point one starts to consider VDSL or FTTH.
» Both VDSL and FTTH are long term projects requiring a substantial redesign of the access network. VDSL requires a POP every 1Km, whereas FTTH requires a POP every 10-20Km
» The last hundred meters of a FTTH infrastructure is very costly.
• ATM vs Ethernet vs Generic Frame PONS• Splitting Ratio• Reach• Dynamic bandwidth allocation • Resiliency• CATV wavelength overlays• Power Splitting or Wavelength routed• Static or Dynamically reconfigurable capacity• How passive and transparent
Passive Optical Networks
ITU-T G.983.1 System Specifications
OLT : Optical Line Termination ONU : Optical Network UnitONT : Optical Network Termination NT : Network Termination
FTTH
FTTCab
OLT●
Maximum divergence number : 32
Optical splitter
155.52/622.08 Mbit/s
155.52 Mbit/s
(1.3um wavelength)
Maximum length : 20 km
ONT
NT
ONU
ATM 25M etc.
Single mode optical fiber (G.652)
Optical loss range (class B:10-25dB, class C:15-30dB)
xDSL
Central Office
(1.5um wavelength)
ATM Based
Other specs in G.983.x series
• Uses free space as the transmission medium
• The system is limited to short distances ~ 300/500mt @ 155Mbit/s
• Main limitation is because of signal scattering by fog and rainfall
• Safety issues limit the power that may be used
Free Space Optics
• Significant efforts must be made to develop optical fibre installation techniques that are low cost, easily maintainable, and that require a low level of skill
• Blown fibre• Pavement installation• Aerial installation
Installation Techniques
62.5 core silica(multimode fiber)
175 core POF
Bell Labs has demonstrated 8 Gb/s over plastic optical fiber
• New plastic fiber for high speed interconnection (8 Gb/s over 75 m)
• Low cost installation
• Broad transparency for WDM
Current plastic fiber
New plastic fiber
New plastic fiber (theory)
AllWave™
Loss[dB/km]
[nm]
A. Glass, “WDM Network Research” What is the potential of POF?
Optical Networking Optical Networking
TE
TE
TE
TE
Optical cross connect
Wavelength routed WDM networksWavelength routed WDM networks
Can this be applicable to Optical Access Networks?
Elements in Optical Networks
• Tuneable lasers
• Tuneable optical filters
• Optical amplifiers
• Optical add/drop multiplexers
• Wavelength converters
• Optical cross connects– Liquid crystal switches– Guided wave switches– Laser diode switches– MEMS switches– Bubble switches (Agilent)
Dispersion Compensation
• Chromatic dispersion effects may be compensated for– Fibre with inverse dispersion coefficient– Dispersive filters– Needs to be engineered for each link– Varies with wavelength
• Polarisation mode dispersion is more difficult to fully compensate for
Could this be applicable in optical access?
Evolution towards photonic networking
Data
ATM
IP
DWDM
SDH
Data
IP + Packet oversonet
DWDM
SDH
Data
IP + MPLS
DWDM
SDH
Data
IP + GMPLS
DWDM
Can metro network techniques be ported down to the access?
What will be the use for the extra bandwidth
• High Definition Television?
• Multiple HDTV streams?
• Security (IPsec, DRM, )?
• Virtual Reality?
• Application Service Provisioning?
• Network based computing on a large scale?
• Peer to Peer applications
What will the future bring?
• Quadplay optical networks?– Voice– Video– Data– Mobile
• Dynamically reconfigurable access networks?
• Hybrid Fibre Radio Network up to street level?
• Continuous developments in DSL delaying the need for optical access?