OptE GP Consulting - ABB Ltd · OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 Agenda Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles

OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance

Electromobility – End of Hype or Reality ?

ABB Robotics – Customer Days in Mainz

Peter Gresch – June 19, 2013


Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013

Agenda

Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles

Electromobility in Germany including E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters

Outlook E-Mobility 2020

Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility

International Pilot Project in Berlin

2



New (Light) Vehicle Sales Worldwide 1996 -> 2012

Calendar Year 2012: European Sales were „flat to negative“ due to (Southern) European Crisis Global New Car Sales grew by 4% to Record Production of about 80 Mio. Cars

16.5 Mio. 12.2 Mio.

22.2 Mio. 17.8 Mio.

18.8 Mio.

= 34 Mio.

3



Production Passenger Cars and Light Trucks from 2011-2016

4

• (Comfort) Innovations almost always Go from Luxury to Mid to Small • Legal or „Mandatory“ Requirements (CO2, Immobilizer, EuroNCAP, ESP, Tire

Pressure Monitoring in US, …) drive faster developments and implementations



Change in Vehicle Production Propulsion Systems

5



Agenda






6



E-Vehicles – New Vehicle Registrations Jan - Jul 2012 / Jan – Nov 2012

7

Opel Ampera – 629 Nissan Leaf – 269 Citroën C-Zero – 256 Peugeot iOn – 200 smart fortwo electric drive – 131 Mercedes A-Klasse E-Cell – 623 Mitsubishi i-MiEV – 47 Tesla Roadster – 44 VW Golf Blue-e-Motion – 32 Total January - July 2012: 2.231 Total Jan – Dec 2011: Approx. 2000 Battery Electric Vehicles, 2012 = 2-3 times as in 2011

Opel Ampera: Approx 6.000 vehicles sold = Nr. 1 in Europe with Market Share of 22% Nr. 1 in Netherlands due to high (28g/km CO2) emmision taxes

The German Automotive Industry has announced 14-16 new vehicle launches until end of 2014



E-Vehicles – Market Germany Not only 4-Wheelers

8



Source: ZVEI Studie Elektromobilität 2012 * (Natural) Gas missing

9

Evolution of Powertrains*



Electric Drivetrains - Usage Profiles

• Micro-Hybrids become „Standard“ to meet CO2 Requirements • Mild-Hybrids increasing • Plug-In Hybrids will be the dominating E-Powertrain for the next years due to „Range

Advantage“ 10

Source: ZVEI



E-Mobility - Growing Opportunities for Public Transportation / China

11

Example: DC Charging for Electric Utility Vehicles Target: BEV and PHEV (15 kWh) - 500.000 Cars in 2015 - 2.000.000 Cars in 2020 Busses (200 kWh) - Hybrid > 12.000 - E-Busses > 3.000 2012: • 27.000 EVs • 200.000.000 E-Pedelecs/Bikes 25 Cities -> 12.000 Proto/Test EVs e.g. Jianghuai 2010-12 With 1.600 E-Cars

Source: Phoenix Contact

Different technologies e.g. DC (fast) charging for electric utility vehicles – implementation for China ! Current up to 400 A Voltage up to 750 V

DC Tolerance

compensation for the plug-in process

© ABB Group June 25, 2013 | Slide 12

Project Estonia: Country wide network “Elmo” ABB awarded Europe’s largest EV infrastructure project

ABB awarded Europe’s largest ever EV infrastructure deployment

Nationwide network: every main road in Estonia will have a fast charger approximately every 50 km

Opened on 20/02/2013

200 DC + AC combined fast chargers 507 AC chargers at office locations Turnkey project & network services

Payment systems Membership model, RFiD SMS payments Smartphone payments Automated acces via phone E-wallet payments


FastNed & ABB to roll out connected DC fast chargers Country wide network throughout Netherlands

Announcement on 03/06/2013

FastNed & ABB will roll out a network of Terra DC fast throughout the Netherlands

Fully commercially driven business model present.

Multiple chargers per site (201 locations)

Network supported by ABB’s remote management, remote assistance and local Dutch ABB service team

Cloud based network connections to FastNed’s Driver Care Center

Connection to Third Party Backoffice via OCPP


Highway Segment DC - fast charging in 15 – 30 minutes Combo / Multi-standard chargers

Terra 53 CJG DC + AC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS 50 kW DC

CHAdeMO 22kW AC 15-30 min.

Jul 2013

Nov 2013

Dec 2013

Terra 53 CJ DC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS 50 kW DC

CHAdeMO

15-30 min.

Terra 53 CT DC + AC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS 22kW AC

15-30 min.

Terra 53 C DC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS

15-30 min.

Nov 2013


Terra SC Duo DC + AC Commercial Charger

20kW DC

CHAdeMO

22kW AC

30-120 min.

Terra SC DC Commercial Charger

• 20kW DC

CHAdeMO

30-120 min

Commercial and Office Segment DC fast charging in 30 – 120 minutes

Terra SC DC Commercial Charger

20kW DC CCS

30-120 min.

Target October

2013

Terra SC Duo DC + AC Commercial Charger

20kW DC CCS

22kW AC

30-120 min.

Target October

2013



E-Vehicles – Market Germany National Platform E-Mobility

16

Target of the German Government are 1 Mio. Electric vehicles (BEV + PHEV)

until 2020 on German streets

The NPE consist of the following 7 company and business overlapping working groups which meet in regular intervals and produce reports and guidance for further proceedings: Drivetrain Technology Battery Technology Charging Infrastructure and

Powernet Integration Norms, Standardisation and

Certification Materials and Recycling Talent and Qualification General Conditions



Agenda






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German “Showcases” Electromobility

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Schaufenster-Regionen



Electromobility in Berlin and Brandenburg today

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Berlin-Brandenburg hosts more practical projects than any other city in Germany.

More than 150 projects in our region, thereof

27 on-going projects

24 already closed projects

24 currently requested grant-projects

31 planned central projects in the showcase 48 projects in preparation

With about 500 electric cars and trucks in fleets and private the highest amount of automotives in Germany

In addition a high unknown number of Pedelecs and eScooter

220 public charging points – the highest number in Germany by far, in addition a high, unknown number of private charging points



Berlin – The “hot spot” for Carsharing

20

In Berlin Carsharing was founded and developed up to series maturity

Berlin is “the place to be“ for Carsharing in the whole of Europe

Allready more than ten provider with many of them adding electric vehicles to their fleets

Multicity (photo) operates a completely electric driving fleet of over 100 Evs (started in August 2012)

Further famous provider with growing EV fleets: car2go, drive now und Flinkster (by DB)

From 150 to over 800 Charging Stations by the end of 2014



International Showcase for Electromobility in Berlin

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Keyfacts: • Running time: November 2012 until end of 2015

• 31 projects with a total volume of approx. 100 million Euros, with more than 150 partners

• The showcase highlights projects in four focal areas of application (Driving, Storing, Charching&Parking, Connecting)

Coordinated by eMO: www.emo-berlin.de/en/

STORING (Smart Grid)

CONNECTING (Nexus)

DRIVING (Mobility)

CHARGING & PARKING

(Infrastructure)

Vehicles Energy

Transport



Agenda






22



Intermittent Wipers

Electronic Ignition

Electronic- Controlled

Timing Advance Electronic Fuel

Injection Automatic Air

Conditioning Control

Drive Computer Power Steering

Antilock Braking System

Suspension

Navigations System

Using Vehicle In- formation and

Communication Buses

Four-Wheel Drive Four-Wheel

Steering Distance Interval

Control Systems Electronic Com-

bustion Control Electronic Value

Time Control Per-Cylinder Knock Control

Keyless Entry

Satellite Radio, Emergency

Services Tire Pressure

Monitoring Systems

Side- and Rear- View Opto- electronics Anti-Roll

Systems LED Lighting

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Elec

tron

ics

Com

plex

ity

Source: IC Insights

Innovation Driver Electronics in the Automobile

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Ante

il am

Kfz

-Pro

dukt

ions

wer

t

Elektronik

Halbleiter

Electronics and Semiconductors as part of the Vehicle Production Value

Source: Mikroelektronik

Trendanalyse 2012

23

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Outlook Electronics Content in (Battery) Electric Vehicles

The Battery is the „dominating“ factor

24



Power Electronics for Electric Vehicles, Plug-In and Full Hybrids

Cost Semiconductors in VW Golf „Class“ = 300 $ US Cost Semiconductors in E-Golf „Class“ > 660 $ US

25



Semiconductor Demand per System 2011-2016

26



Vehicle Production and Automobile Semiconductor Demand

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E/E Growth Drivers

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Trends in Automobile E/E 1. CO2-Reduction

2. Electrification of the Drivetrain

3. Electrification of Auxiliaries (with more Sensors and Actuators) 4. Introduction of 48V-Boardnet

5. Connectivity – Also in the car „Always ON“. New Car IT including operating concepts 6. (Active) Vehicle Safety, Autonomomous Driving

7. No compromising in Comfort (and Safety) features 8. Globalisation („World Car“)

Consequences The dominant development goal, particularly in Europe. Strong regulations drive engine downsizing, light weight, board net control of ECUs, … Hybrid- and E-Cars push for extensive usage of power electronics (Power)Steering, Heating/Cooling, … Up to 50 Auxiliaries in one vehicle Next Gen. Vehicles at least at some German OEMs The second important challenge: How to connect the car with the internet comfortable and secure? Which operating concepts (HMIs)? Which displays? … (Active)Driver Assistance systems are breaking into the compact class. With stable internet access even more functions are feasible... Infotainment, Climate Control, Innovative Lighting, Power Windows, Comfortable Seats, …= „Standard“ Regional differences to be considered „smartly“



Agenda






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Challenges of the Automobile Industry

„Green“ Traffic – CO2 free

Driving, Enviroment

Urbanisation-Mega Cities

Generation Communication

Individuality: Increase of Vehicle- and Powertrain Portfolio

Comfort, Safety Weight Constant Time

and Cost Pressure

(Western) Automobile

Industry

Demography

International Competition

30



Global Market Development for Electric Vehicles, Plug-In and Full Hybrids until 2019

31



ZVEI Study „E-Mobilität 2012“: Large Volumes for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles already in 2020 ?!

32

Market Development Powertrain 2010 - 2020 - 2030

Electric Vehicle(s) will reach in 2030 only a market share of 27 % (currently Hybrid Vehicles have a global market share of 2 %)

Global Market Volume is estimated for 2030 of over 450 Bill. Euro (Source: McKinsey); 420.000 new jobs could develop

Toyota just sold their 5th Mill. Hybrid Vehicle – Japan every 5th car has an Electric Drivetrain



Outlook – Major Technical Challenges

(Two) Major Technical Challenges: 1. Needs for Rare Earth Magnets for

better performance and smaller packages

2. Affordable Battery/Cell Technology for enlarged Capacity

33



Electromobility – Status and Outlook

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• Electrified Powertrains in „transportation“ are growing e.g. Plug-In Hybrids

• Especially true for „muscle driven“ two-wheelers (E-Bikes, E-Pedelecs, …)

• E-Drives for car fleets, public transportation, … have significant market potential

• Largest driver is not only pressure on CO2-Reduction, also „smog free“ in large cities, traffic noise reduction and (more) variable mobility concepts

• Europe wants to generate a leading market and play a dominant industry and market position – But in Japan every 5th new vehicle is already „Electrical“

− High cost (battery, …) limits larger market penetration (in Germany 2012 < 6.000 E-Vehicles were sold)

− Various big industriy sectors such as Automobile, Infrastructure, Energy Providers, … have to „find each other“ in working together successfully

− High additional infrastructure investments are needed for charging, billing, … Business Cases ???

− The key markets (Japan, US, France, China, Germany) favor different concepts and incentive programs to lobby „their markets and their companies“

− Development of norms and standards across country/continent borders is a major challenge e.g. for charging systems, …


Optimize E Global Performance Consulting Efficiency and Effectiveness in Global Engineering, Project Execution and Portfolio DEvelopment for Electrical / Electronics / MEchatronics / E-Mobility of Automotive and other global Industries

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OptE GP Consulting - ABB Ltd · OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 Agenda Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles