Opportunities to Leverage Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric … · 2019. 5. 29. · FPAW-Summer 2018 AdOs via Mode S EHS - 5 MDM 17 July 2018 • Aircraft measurements can be used for

Michael McPartland

17 July 2018

Opportunities to Leverage Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric

Observation Data

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FPAW-Summer 2018AdOs via Mode S EHS - 2MDM 17 July 2018

This material is based upon work supported by the Federal AviationAdministration under Air Force Contract No. FA8702-15-D-0001. Anyopinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed inthis material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflectthe views of the Federal Aviation Administration.

© 2018 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as definedin DFARS Part 252.227-7013 or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding anycopyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined byDFARS 252.227-7013 or DFARS 252.227-7014 as detailed above. Useof this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S.Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work.


Atmospheric observations are critical to aviation activities

Motivation

Tactical Activities

Ground sensors(e.g., ASOS)

Balloon sensors(e.g., radiosondes)

Aircraft-derivedobservations

Sample Observation

Systems

Strategic Activities

ASOS = Airport Surface Observation System

Weather Models

Real-time Tools

Flight Planning Traffic Management

ATC Decision-Making

Pilot Decision-Making

Sample applications

Sample applications


Atmospheric observations used to best represent initial conditions in the forecast volume above the surface

Aircraft-Derived ObservationUsage in Forecasts

[1] James, E., and S. Benjamin, 2017: Observation system experiments with the hourly-updating Rapid Refresh model using GSI hybrid ensemble/variational dataassimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0398.1, in press.

Average reduction in wind RMS vector error

Aircraft-derived weather observations are the most important inputin wind and temperature forecast accuracy

From [1]

Mor

e im

port

ant t

o fo

reca

st a

ccur

acy

Observation source

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

-0.1

Win

ds (m

/s)

A B C D E F G H J

A – radiosonde obsB – aircraft obsC – profiler obs – Exp. Profiler – controlD – radar reflectivityE – VAD windF – GPS-MetG – GOES satellite obsH – surface obs including METAR cloudJ – AMVs – Exp. cloud drift


• Aircraft measurements can be used for atmospheric observations

• Meteorological Data Collection & Reporting System (MDCRS) is current airborne source

• “ADS-B Weather out” could enable greater access to aircraft-based observations, but not for foreseeable future

• Mode S Enhanced Surveillance (EHS)widely available now

– Can act as near-term surrogate for ADS-B Wx Out

Aircraft-Derived Observations

Air referencedvector

Wind vector

ADS-B = Automated Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast


Observation Source

HorizontalCoverage

Vertical Range

Update Period Latency Comment

ASOS 900 sites many at airports Surface only 20 mins/

1 min <1 min Used primarily for airport operations

Radiosondes 69 sites in CONUS Ground to >100 kft 12 hours < 2 hrs Used primarily for

forecast input data

MDCRSLimited fleet

coverage (~20%current US fleet)

Ground to typical cruise

altitudes

6 secs ground,1 min ascent/

descent7 mins cruise

7-60+ mins,Average is

17 mins

Used primarily for forecast input data

Mode S EHSGrowing fleet

coverage (>50% current US fleet)


altitudes4.8-12 secs Seconds

Useful for forecast & real-time operations

ADS-B Wx Out(future)

None now, could be meaningful %

in future


altitudes~10 secs Seconds

Specifications not planned until at

least 2019

Observation System ComparisonsAi

rcra

ft-D

eriv

ed

Obs

erva

tions

ASOS = Airport Surface Observation SystemMDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection & Reporting System

Mode S EHS = Mode S Enhanced Surveillance

Opportunity to assess enhanced aircraft-derived observations via Mode S EHS to guide development of future applications and ADS-B Weather specifications


Outline

• Background

• Current Aircraft-Derived Observation Systems

• Comparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Aircraft-Derived Observation Data

• Recommended Next Steps


Current System Characterization

• MDCRS: North American, 11 airlines reporting• E-AMDAR: Europe, 14 airlines reporting

Ground stations

Air data computer

Inertial reference

unit

GPS

Clock

ACARS Meteorological Community

Airlines

Typical Data• Winds• Temp

• RH%• EDR

E-AMDAR = European Aircraft Meteorological Data RelayACARS = Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System

RH = Relative Humidity EDR = Eddy Dissipation Rate

ARINC


• Current sampling across country is varied and limited to a small percentage of commercial flights/routes

MDCRS Spatial/Temporal Coverage

Age

at 3

PM

EST

(min

utes

)

50

45

40

35

30

25

Latit

ude

(deg

rees

)

Longitude (degrees)-120 -110 -100 -90 -80 -70

0

-10

-20

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-50

-60


MDCRS Latency

• MDCRS data are delayed due to batching before transmitting– Average observation delay = 17 minutes

MDCRS Observation Delay within CONUS

Nov 1, 2017, 24-hrs (n=521648)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Delivery to Ground Station Delay (mins)

0

0.5

1

1.5

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2.5

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3.5

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5

Num

Obs

erva

tion

10 4

Not appropriate for near real-time applications

(x10

000)


Sample MDCRS Coverage Around Boston

At BOS, about 5% of scheduled flights report MDCRS data

Limited MDCRS data available for forecasting and real-time applications: opportunity to leverage Mode S EHS observations

Nov 1, 2017, 2:00-3:00 PM EST 120 observations

43

42

Latit

ude

(deg

rees

)

Longitude (degrees)-72 -71 -70 -

-

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Age at 3 PM EST(minutes)

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Longitude (degrees)-72 -71 -70


• Background




Outline


Mode S EHS BasedObservation System

Aircraft collects data from its own sources:

GPS and on-board sensors

Mode S EHS enables interrogation of specific aircraft

registers to extract or derive aircraft winds and temperature

Air referencedvector

Wind vector

Register Content Comment

0x50• Ground speed• True air speed• Roll angle• Track angle

Used to estimate• Wind speed• Wind direction• Temperature

0x60• Mag heading• Mach• Altitude rate

0x44 • Wind speed/dir• Temperature

Only 5% of EHS A/C populate4.8 or 12 secs update rate


• FAA Mode S radars do not currently interrogate relevant registers*– Could do so with simple adaptation modifications

• Lincoln MODSEF has been adapted to interrogate aircraft within range (60 nmi radius)– Data streaming started March 8, 2017

Lincoln Mode S EHSAircraft-Derived Observation Evaluation

MIT/LL Mode S Experimental Facility (MODSEF) 60 NM range

4.8s update rate

*FAA’s Fremont Valley BI6 radar at Edward’s AFB, whichfeeds High Desert TRACON (E10), conducts EHS interrogations


Comparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOS

Mode S EHS9809 observations

MDCRS120 observations

Nov 1, 20172-3:00 PM EST

-

-

-

-

-

-

0


>80x increase in atmospheric observations with Mode S EHS vs MDCRS in this case

43

42Latit

ude

(deg

rees

)

Longitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees)

Latit

ude

(deg

rees

)

0

-10

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-60

43

42

-72 -71 -70 -72 -71 -70


Mode S EHS (n=200986)

MDCRS (n=6465)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Num

ber o

f Obs

erva

tions

Mode S EHS (n=200986)

MDCRS (n=6465)

Comparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOS

Nov 1, 2017Observations across 24 hours

Significantly increased time and altitude coverage with Mode S EHS

(x10

000)

Pres

sure

Alti

tude

(kft)

Number of Observations (✕10,000) Local Hour of Day0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 5 10 15 20

Mode S EHS (n=200986)MDCRS (n=6465)

Mode S EHS (n=200986)MDCRS (n=6465)

Num

ber o

f Obs

erva

tions

(✕10

,000

)0.2

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MDCRS & MODSEFObservations Around KBED/KBOS

Magenta points in figures are RAP model grid points initialized from observation data

Opportunity for forecast models to assimilate higher quantities of more recent data

Mode S EHSMDCRS 0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

RAP = Rapid Refresh forecast model



Observation From Tech Center Radar

Snapshot ~Noon EST18 June, 2018


GAMode S Only

26%

AirlineMode S Only

18%GA EHS

16%

Airline EHS26%

AirlineMDCRS + EHS

12%

Airline MDCRS Only2% All Observed Aircraft

Available Wx Observations

MDCRSToday

EHS ADOsToday

EHS ADOsTomorrow?

• Elwood, NJ radar• 15 minute sampling window• Noon EST, 18 June 2018• 492 Aircraft observed*

* Observed aircraft with Mode A and Mode C transponders not included in count


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

EHS Quipped Not Equipped

Observed EquipageMode S & Mode S EHS

Number of Aircraft by Carrier

• Elwood, NJ radar• 15 minute sampling window• Noon EST, 18 June 2018• 492 Aircraft observed


Outline

• Background





• FAA– Operational considerations

• Identify and develop operational procedures to take advantage of real-time aircraft-derived observations, inc. to ground and cockpit systems

– Policy considerations• Leverage knowledge gained through near-term Mode S EHS assessment

to inform ADS-B Out weather requirements

– Architectural considerations• Conduct analysis on means to collect and disseminate aircraft-derived

observations from Mode S EHS to end users, inc. spectrum analysis

• NOAA/FAA– Perform benefits analysis on forecast improvements if large

quantities of aircraft-derived observations were available, e.g., for high resolution terminal area wind forecasts

Recommended Next Steps


• Leveraging aircraft-derived operations holds significant promise for improving weather forecasting and real-time operations

• Mode S EHS is a currently-available technology enabling immediate access to aircraft-derived observations– Inform standards and opportunities for ADS-B Weather Out

– Potential to enhance forecasting performance

– Potential to enhance real-time operations

Summary


Backup


Fremont Valley, CA, Elwood, NJ, Lexington, MA Mode S EHS Radars

Snapshot 3PM EST18 June, 2018


• Incorporated FAA Elwood ARSR-4 for broader coverage (NYC, PHL and DC operations)

• Could ultimately expand to all ARSR/ASR radar coverage areas

Expanding Mode S EHS Aircraft-Derived Observation Analysis

60 NM range4.8s update rate

250 NM range12s update rate

120 ° W

110 ° W 100

° W 90

° W 80° W

70° W

30 ° N

40 ° N

50 ° N CARSR coverage



Nov 1, 2017, 3:00 PM EST forecast assimilation = 15 Minutes

-60

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MDCRS1 observation


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-72 -71 -70

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MDCRS & MODSEFObservations Around KBED/KBOS across Altitudes


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Documents

Opportunities to Leverage Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric … · 2019. 5. 29. · FPAW-Summer 2018 AdOs via Mode S EHS - 5 MDM 17 July 2018 • Aircraft measurements can be used for