Opportunities for climate mitigation through forestry and agriculture in FloridaOpportunities for climate mitigation through forestry and agriculture in Florida

S. MulkeyMay 2008

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [>90% probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. 4th Assessment Report 2007

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [>90% probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. 4th Assessment Report 2007

Joint statement of 13 national academies of science

(1) Anthropogenic climate change is real (2) Mitigation is urgent (3) Adaptation will be necessary.

Joint statement of 13 national academies of science

(1) Anthropogenic climate change is real (2) Mitigation is urgent (3) Adaptation will be necessary.

Florida -Ground

Zero

Miami-Dade County: Miami-Dade County: Nonlinear rise of 3 to 5 ft Nonlinear rise of 3 to 5 ft by 2100.by 2100.

Potential capital losses

William D. Nordhaus. 2006. The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States. NBER 12813, 47pp.

Mitigation - Can we do it?

William Chameides

Emissions for

“business-as-usual”

Emissions target

80% cut in emissions by

2060

We need at least 7 wedges (More than 7?)

Land Management

The Arizona climate action plan

The Bottom Line• The plan contains a portfolio of 49 recommendations that, if implemented, will cut Arizona’s GHG emissions almost in half by 2020 and provide $5.5 billion in net savings to the economy. (Center for Climate Strategies)

• Thirty percent of Florida’s energy needs can be met by efficiency and renewables by 2023 and save about $28 billion. (ACEEE, 2007)

Initial strategy for Florida emissions mitigation

Greenhouse gas inventory including biological flux

Greenhouse gas reporting registry

Climate action plan with emissions targets

State standards for energy production efficiency

Appliance efficiency standards Green building standards for state buildings Mandates and incentives for promoting solar & biofuels

Renewables portfolio for power generation

Market based incentives for compliance including cap-and-trade and/or a carbon tax

$ Conservation and alternative energy markets will create economic opportunity; carbon markets will help determine land use options.

Mandatory caps with carbon market trading

“We are committed to a pathway that will slow, stop and reverse the growth of US emissions while expanding the economy.”

Carbon markets make money• Emitters purchase allowances from other emitters who are below their regulated limit.

• Emitters purchase carbon offsets from enterprises that remove GHGs from the atmosphere.

• Displacing fossil fuels with biofuels will allow emitters to sell credits.

The market values of offsets and traditional products together determine land use options.

GHG flux through forestry & agriculture

EPA 2005

• Forested lands sequester 12%, while agriculture emits over 6% of US emissions.• Although GHG sources and sinks in forestry and agriculture are minor portions of total emissions, they represent significant potential for offsetting projected increases in emissions.

Modeled cumulative mitigation

EPA 2005

As determined by all market factors, US lands could cumulatively continue to sequester carbon throughout most of this century.

Mitigation response to GHG market value

• Higher values result in greater mitigation, but soils and forests for any given project become saturated at about 2025.

• Beyond 2025, mitigation projects may shift to alternative practice.

• Thus, constant price scenarios eventually show a declining rate of mitigation over time.

• Offsets are weak in the US voluntary market, but mandatory caps in Europe rapidly drove the price to $30-40 per ton CO2Eq.

Mitigation potential through forestry and agriculture in Florida is among the highest

Reversal - loss of sequestered carbon

Closed loop carbon

Closed loop carbon

Stored carbon can be lost

Stored carbon can be lost

The Florida ethanol boom ?

• Sources: Sugarcane, corn, sweet sorghum, citrus molasses

• All have established markets; sugar prices are controlled

• All sources of ethanol from carbohydrate would offset 3.5% of demand for gasoline

• Mass production of cellulosic ethanol is 10 years away

• Sources: Sugarcane, corn, sweet sorghum, citrus molasses

• All have established markets; sugar prices are controlled

• All sources of ethanol from carbohydrate would offset 3.5% of demand for gasoline

• Mass production of cellulosic ethanol is 10 years away

Leakage• Leakage refers to GHG emissions associated with

the creation and maintenance of a mitigation project

• e.g., Fossil fuels used in afforestation; Fossil fuels used in production of ethanol;

• Upstream and downstream effects may also cause increases in GHGs - e.g., market shift results in increased forest cutting elsewhere

• Leakage GHGs decrement the offset value

Cautions about ethanol

• Production & distribution process should be transparent & accountable through Lifecycle Analysis• Water use consequences in a state with severe water shortages

• Production & distribution process should be transparent & accountable through Lifecycle Analysis• Water use consequences in a state with severe water shortages

Farrell et al. Science. 2006

Lifecycle emissions from alternative fuels

This analysis is incomplete because it does not include emissions from land use changes resulting from expanded acreage for biofuel production.

This analysis is incomplete because it does not include emissions from land use changes resulting from expanded acreage for biofuel production.

EPA 2007

Gasoline =

zero

Carbon debt from conversion of land to biofuel production

Fargione et al. 2008

Florida soils are a unique opportunity for carbon storage

• High rainfall

• Warm temperatures

• Highest soil organic carbon in the coterminous US.

Carbon deposited at the surface is rapidly leached deeper in soil

Conservation tillage = reduced or no tillage of the land Conservation tillage = reduced or no tillage of the land = less carbon loss as emissions and runoff = less carbon loss as emissions and runoff

Energy from livestock waste

• Biogas displaces fossil natural gas. • Methane from waste represents carbon that was recently fixed through photosynthesis

Florida forests as offsets

Carlton Ward 2007

~ 47% forested

Industrial forests of the Southeast are carbon sinks

Binford et al. 2006. J Geophys Res.

Total landscape carbon uptake as determined by growth, harvest, fire, and phosphate mining.

Carbon budget analysis Carbon budget analysis is essential for is essential for assessing mitigation assessing mitigation potential of Florida potential of Florida forests.forests.

Harvest for fuel, wood products, etc.Harvest for fuel, wood products, etc.

How much energy could we get from wood?

Biomass supply curve for Green Cove Springs, FL

At a price competitive with coal, this would supply half of the power produced by a medium size power plant.

Matt Langholtz, UF/IFAS

Environmental concerns – Soil nutrientsEnvironmental concerns – Soil nutrients

Forest products

Cushman et al. 2007

Criteria for products –

• Wood products must displace products made with fossil fuels

• Products must be for novel uses

Criteria for products –

• Wood products must displace products made with fossil fuels

• Products must be for novel uses

Most environmental co-effects of mitigation through forestry can be positive

• Afforestation & reforestation High mitigation potential where no lasting snow cover Increases forest cover Improves water quality & watershed function Higher biodiversity

• Forest management for direct offsets - longer rotation Enhances forest biomass & watershed function Longer rotations provide critical habitat for animals

• Fossil fuel replaced with woody biomass - short rotation

Negligible negative impact if soil nutrients are maintained Forest Stewardship Council Forest Stewardship Council guidelines

Indirect monetary valuation of ecosystem services

Florida Critical Lands and WatersBiological

Resources

Water

Additionality & baselines• Valid and marketable GHG offsets must be additional, i.e., any

reductions in GHG emissions, or increases in sequestration would not have occurred without the project.

• Quantifying additionality requires a valid baseline prior to initiation of the a mitigation project.

• Accounting must be done with integrity - comprehensive, transparent, ongoing, and subject to independent audit.

• A functional carbon market requires quantifiers, verifiers, and regulators.

Harnessing Farms and Forests in the Low-Carbon Economy: How to Create, Measure, and Verify Greenhouse Gas OffsetsNicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Zach Willey and Bill Chameides, editors. Duke University Press, June 2007.

How do you determine the baseline ?

Baseline scenarios:

A - No changes in land management, carbon stock does not change

B - No explicit management for offsets, but carbon stock naturally increases

C - Carbon stocks likely to decrease because of projected land use change

Report available at –snre.ufl.edu

Emissions offset portfolio for Florida forestry and agriculture

Mulkey et al. 2008 in press

Activity Offset potential(million tonnes CO2 eq per year)

Biofuels, biomass, & energy crops – excluding cellulosic ethanol

7.36

Agricultural biogas on feedlot operations 0.96

Conservation tillage on 50% of Florida agricultural lands

1.72

Shifts to medium and high intensity pine management on 4.75 million acres

5.8

Afforestation of 5% of range and pastureland

1.14

Total 16.98

Near-term carbon market value of forestry and agriculture components in Florida

Mulkey et al. 2008

• $678 million annually @ $40 Mg-1 CO2eq

Additional annual value from traditional markets

Mulkey et al. 2008

• Biogas as replacement for fossil natural gas - $62.7 million• Sale of crop and logging residues as fuel - $48 million• Reduced fuel costs from conservation tillage - $14 million

• Biogas as replacement for fossil natural gas - $62.7 million• Sale of crop and logging residues as fuel - $48 million• Reduced fuel costs from conservation tillage - $14 million

Total annual value of portfolio at $20 Mg-1 CO2eq

~$ 465 million

Land & ocean have

been carbon sinks

Carbon Stocks – can be managed for • reducing loss• increased sequestration

2 oC

Warming and land use change are synergistic

Land use change in Florida

Pielke, R. A. Science. 2005

Land use change generally results in loss of carbon stocks

Land use change is one cause of regional climate change

LaDochy et al. 2007. IJC.

• Warming - - 50% due to global warming - 50% due to land use change

• Large urban areas warmed 2-5 times more than the state mean 1950-2000.

California land use amplifies warming

Heterogeneous “forcing” of regional climateHeterogeneous “forcing” of regional climate

Land use impacts on south Florida climate

Precipitation Maximum temperature

Minimum temperature

Marshall et al. 2005. Monthly weather review.;Pielke, RA, Sr.et al. 2007. Ag For Met.

Marshall et al. Nature 2003

Minimum temperatures are lower due to loss of wetlands.

Consistent with present trends, the Southeast will warm less than the rest of the US.

North Florida will warm more

than south Florida.

Precipitation will decrease in south Florida, but remain approximately constant in north Florida

With positive feedback from the carbon cycle, mitigation must be even more aggressive

Friedlingstein, Nature 2008

Conclusion: Management of landscape carbon stocks is not optional.

Conclusion: Management of landscape carbon stocks is not optional.

2015-2020Landscape based

mitigation options are

rapidly disappearing

Science that changed our understanding of our place in nature