Opportunities for Assuring High

Production of Rice in India

Achim Dobermann

Deputy Director General (Research)International Rice Research Institute

General Council, NFSM, New Delhi, January 18, 2011

Outline

Global rice supply-demand A rice revolution in South America New technologies & some specific

suggestions for India What role can IRRI play?

FAO Rice Market Monitor, 11/2010

Area growth/contraction have driven global rice production.Yield growth remains too slow.

Global per capita rice consumption

Kilograms

15 kg

IFPRI

7 kg

FAOIRRI

2 kg

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

Asia Africa Americas Rest of World

Million tons milled rice

Additional rice needed:116 million tons by 2035

2010 global rice production

Global rice demand until 2035

IRRI estimates

Rice demand: In each of the next 10 years produce at least 8 million tons rice

more (rough rice) .

Rice supply: Little change in harvested area(160 million ha) Yield growth of 1.2-1.5% until 2020 (+50-60 kg/ha/yr) Yield growth of 1.0-1.2% after 2020

Change how we grow rice: New seeds to adapt to changing climate Less tillage, less water, less labor, less pesticides, more efficient

fertilizer use More resilient, diversified rice-based farming systems

Smarter people who implement these changes

What needs to be done?

Southern Cone,1.3 million ha

Rice area, production and yield in the Southern Cone, South America

Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz

33,48 33,00

30,91

26,64

24,12

26,19

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

35,00

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Custo unitário (R$/saco 50kg)

- 21,8%- 21,8%

Average cost of production

Water use efficiency in RS State

4 m3/1 kg of rice

≤ 1 m3/1 kg of rice

2 m3/1 kg of rice

Precision management: small details make big differences

1. Plant for maximum yield potential

2. Optimize your plant population

3. Preventive pest management

4. Early weed control

5. Balanced nutrition

6. Irrigate early & well

6 management principles that are NOT site-specific

Key elements of success

Sound agronomic principles that can be easily communicated and implemented

Location-specific technology solutions that matched farmers’ needs and scale of operation

Strong role of farmer-to-farmer extension Strong support mechanisms

Local agri-businesses Knowledgeable, motivated field agronomists Focused applied research & extension program (IRGA)

Self-sustained -- 100% farmer-funded through a levy of $0.20/sack rice $30 million/yr for research and extension

No subsidies, no market interferences

Indian rice need by 2035

000 Metric Tons Kilograms

IRRI estimates

>20 MMT of additional rice needed by 2035

Paddy yields in major Indian states, 2007/08

Tons per hectare

Account for 45% of total rice area

Data Source: Rice Almanac India, Directorate of Rice Research

General considerations

Relax export ban on non-basmati rice? Adjust MSP/replace with some form of direct

income transfer to reduce market distortions? Greater presence of Food Corporation of India for

procurement of paddy from the Eastern region? Critically review impact of current policies:

promotion of machinery, (organic) fertilizers, SRI and hybrid seeds?

How to enable increase in yields and cropping intensity in eastern and southern India? Water Machinery Suitable short-duration varieties Fertilizer

Making rice climate-proof

drought

submergence

salinity

heat

Advances in marker-assisted breeding

• Submergence (sub1) + anaerobic germination tolerance (new QTLs)

• Salinity tolerance (saltol, other QTLs)• Drought tolerance (single QTL, pyramided QTL)• Increased P uptake (pup1)• Heat tolerance at flowering• Pyramiding of BLB resistance genes• Pyramiding of blast resistance genes• Pyramiding of BPH resistance genes• Tungro resistance (new gene)• Grain quality traits (new QTLs, chalk-free rice)• MAS for large number of agronomic traits

Tillage

Conventional

Reduced(Unpuddled)

Raised bed Zero-tillage

Crop establishment

Transplant Drum Seeding

Direct-drill-seeding

Future rice-based systems

Has SRI had a measurable impact?

Rice yield, tons/ha

• Claim: adoption of SRI on some 600,000 ha (1/3 of T.N.)• Difficult to verify what practices were adopted. New?• No impact on state yield?• Not a forward-looking technology

A direct-seeded rice revolution in India

Nutrient Manager provides farmers with field-specific guidelines

Computer via Web connection

www.irri.org/nmrice1 Access web site2 Answer 15 questions about field3. Receive guideline via internet

Mobile phoneSMS compatible

NM Rice: For 94-105 sacks of rice on 1 hectare in dry season w/ good management practices: Apply 3 bags 14-14-14 basal or w/in 10 days after transplanting (DAT), 1 bag urea at 21 to 25 DAT, 1 bag urea at 30 to 34 DAT.

1 Call tool free number2 Answer 12 questions about field3. Receive guideline via text

Available in the Philippines. Coming soon in Indonesia and other countries

Pro

du

ctiv

ity

and

eff

icie

ncy

gro

wth

2010 2020 2030

Improved varieties

- Yield potential: new inbreds, hybrids- Vit. A & Zn enriched rice- Multi-stress tolerant varieties-- Varieties for conservation agricultureImproved rice systems- Ecological intensification & diversification of production systems- New generation IPMImproved value chains- Grain quality & specialty rices

Improved varieties

- Hybrids- Stress-tol. varietiesImproved rice systems- Agronomy (SSNM,AWD, …)- Conservation agriculture- Mechanization

Improved value chains- Postharvest technologies

Improved varieties

- yield potential: C4 rice- biotech (drought, heat, NUE, BNF)

Improved rice systems- Ecological intensification & diversification of production systems

Improved value chains- New products/by-products from rice

Africa

LAC

Asia

New technologies pipeline

10 specific actions for India1. Roll out stress tolerant varieties & invest in developing the

next generation (multi-stress, DSR)2. Roll out Super Bags for safe seed/food storage3. Reduce hybrid rice subsidies – support public and private

R&D to overcome current hybrid rice constraints4. Support shallow tubewells for intensifying cropping in

eastern India5. Promote site-specific solutions for optimized cropping

systems and good agronomic management principles 6. Support small service providers for mechanized cropping

systems management (conservation agriculture)7. Develop agricultural machinery industry in eastern India8. New nutrient management tools & regional fertilizer

policies9. Promote Certified Crop Advisor (CCA) program and create

similar certification program for agro-input dealers10. Establish an Indian Rice Information Gateway

National/Global Rice Information Gateways

Rice supply-demand-trade

model

Crop growth model

Statistics, GISRemote sensing

Medium-termprojections Monitoring

and short-term

forecasting

Policymakers

Analysis of policy impacts

Real-time crop monitoring service

Acreage

Yield

Production

Rice Figures

- Crop calendar- Administrative units

AgroMeteorological

Model

- Meteo data - Soil data - Phenological data - Management data

- Yield prediction - Harvest time

Production

- Acreage at emergence

- Growth stages

Data Processing SAR Data

Digital elevation model

What additional role can IRRI play?

• Catalyst for public and private sector efforts: already working with over 120 partners in India

• Facilitate development of an Indian Rice Information Gateway

• Eastern India rice initiative• Conduct strategic assessment• Stress-tolerant varieties adapted to climatic risks• Mechanized, efficient double/triple cropping systems• Postharvest technologies• New delivery and professional service models• Capacity building: young agricultural professionals

• Molecular rice breeding center for India and other SAARC countries

• Assist with setting up a national grain quality lab• Science and extension capacity building (CCA)