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Kishore Mahbubani | February 4, 2014 9:39 am Print
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Why UNSC reform is anuphill task
As cunning as India mightbe about its bid forpermanent membership, itsefforts are likely to come upshort.
India after Nido
His death reminds us of thetransitions the Indianproject still needs to make.
I have never understood the myth of Sisyphus. Why would anyintelligent person push an immense boulder up a hill, only to watch it rolldown, and to repeat this action for ever? Oddly, this is what India isdoing with its quest to become a permanent member of the UnitedNations Security Council (UNSC). It is pushing a huge boulder uphillwith no prospect of it ever reaching the top.
Why not? Let me emphasise that India’s case for a permanent seat onthe UNSC is indisputable. Like China, it represents almost a fifth ofhumanity. Its GDP is number three in the world in purchasing powerparity terms. It is also acknowledged as a legitimate nuclear power. Asthe eminent Financial Times writer, Martin Wolf, has said, “Within adecade, a world in which the United Kingdom is on the United NationsSecurity Council and India is not will seem beyond laughable. The oldorder passes. The sooner the world adjusts, the better.” If India’s caseis indisputable, why are India’s labours so Sisyphean?
The simple answer is that any reform of the UNSC will be a packagedeal. Despite India’s growing weight in the world, there will be no reformjust to let India in. Both Latin America and Africa feel excluded frompermanent membership of the UNSC and have, like India, equallystrong claims to have at least one permanent member on the UNSC.Since UNSC reform will have to be endorsed by the UN GeneralAssembly (UNGA), the combined votes of Latin America (33) andAfrica (54) can block reform if they are excluded from any reformformula.
In acknowledgement of the fact that any reform will have to be apackage deal, India decided to form an alliance with three other aspirantstates — Brazil, Germany and Japan — to mount its campaign for apermanent seat on the UNSC. These four states (G4) mounted adetermined push to get permanent membership (without veto power forat least 15 years) through a UNGA resolution in 2005. While this pushdid gain some momentum, it ultimately failed. Like Sisyphus’s motion ofpushing a rock uphill, it was destined to fail for several reasons.
To the new order, strategically
SUMMARY
Can India, unlikeSisyphus,successfully pushthe boulder ofUNSC reform to thesummit?
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India after Nido
His death reminds us of thetransitions the Indian projectstill needs to make.
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The US was uncomfortable with the G4 proposal to increase UNSC membership to 25.
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First, the G4 did not include a single African candidate. To be fair, this isalso due to the fact that the African group could not agree on a singlecandidate, unlike in Latin America, where Brazil stands out as theobvious candidate. Second, as long as relations between China andJapan remain troubled and unsettled, China cannot acquiesce toJapan’s quest for permanent membership. Hence, China mounted aferocious global campaign to block Japan. Here, even though the UStechnically supports Japan’s claim to a UNSC seat, it quietly supportedthis Chinese campaign. In short, the story of UNSC reform is a story ofone cunning move underlying another cunning move. Third, with the UKand France already taking up two permanent seats on the UNSC,Europe is already overrepresented in permanent membership. Europeprovides only 7 per cent of the world’s population but it has 40 per cent(two out of five) of the permanent seats on the UNSC. It was cunning ofthe UK and France to support Germany’s quest for permanentmembership. By doing so, Germany was obliged to thank the UK andFrance. However, by pushing for even greater European overrepresentation in the UNSC, the UK and France were effectivelycondemning the prospects of UNSC reform and thereby preservingtheir permanent seats even longer.
The big question that India faces in UNSC reform is an obvious one:can it be equally cunning as the other great powers and propose aformula that will, unlike Sisyphus, result in India successfully pushingthe boulder of UNSC reform to the summit? The simple answer is that itcan. This is why I have proposed in my book, The Great Convergence:Asia, the West and the Logic of One World, that India should advocate anew 777 formula for UNSC reform, where there would be sevenpermanent members, seven semipermanent members and sevenelected members.
This 777 formula is more likely to succeed for several reasons. First,the US has made it absolutely clear that it will not allow the UNSC toexpand beyond 20 or 21. This is why the US was uncomfortable withthe G4 proposal to increase UNSC membership to 25.
Second, the 777 formula would add a Latin American (Brazil) andAfrican (Nigeria) member. Many have questioned Nigeria’s eligibilitygiven its internal travails. Yet Nigeria’s potential is huge. Few are awarethat even though Nigerians make up less than 1 per cent of the blackpopulation in the US, they make up nearly 25 per cent of the blackstudents at Harvard Business School. In relative terms, the Nigeriandiaspora is hugely successful. Nigeria’s population is three times largerthan South Africa’s. Third, as China is already a permanent member, itis unlikely that the rest of the world will agree to add two more Asianstates as permanent members. They will ask Asia to choose betweenIndia and Japan. Clearly India’s case is stronger. Finally, India’s biggestopponent in UNSC reform has been Pakistan. Under the 777 formula,Pakistan will not be a loser.
When India becomes a permanent member, Pakistan will become asemipermanent member.Hence, it will have an incentive to support the 777 formula over the G4formula that India has been pushing so far.
In short, India has a simple strategic choice to make if it wants tosucceed in its quest to become a permanent member of the UNSC. Itcan continue to push the G4 formula and end up like Sisyphus, almostreaching the top but never reaching the top. Or it could support the 777formula and succeed in its quest.Mahbubani is author of ‘The Great Convergence: Asia, the West,and the Logic of One World’
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Trishul • 2 days agoThe entire idea is based on world population figures. I believeif the UN was to exist as a body that can perform someaction in the world it will have to have states who are stableand powerful to have a leadership role. A multitude of statesthat cannot act independently are likely to becomegridlocked, and their ability to do anything meaningful, will beseverely curtailed. Equal representation is a noble Idea forthe purposes of equality. However it will take more thanequality to have a purposeful and meaningful UN not just adebating society
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