1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy

ARPA Servizio IdroMeteorologicoBologna Italy

Michele Stortini, Giovanni Bonafe’, Marco Deserti, Enrico Minguzzi, Suzanne Jongen

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Contents

Description of Northern Italy Network for Forecast Aerosol pollution

Winter test case (February 2004) Open questions and further developments

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Why NINFA

Starting from 2006: daily runs, providing hourly air quality analysis and forecasts

Air quality forecast in the Po Valley Air quality evaluation scenarios for regional and

local reduction Action Plan Background fields for urban models (i.e. ISC,

ADMS-Urban) used by ARPA local departments.

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

METEO: LAMI (7*7 km)

CHIMERE (10*10 km)

EMISSIONS:CTN_ACE (5*5 km)

BOUNDARY CONDITIONS: Prev'air (0.5*0.5

degree)

OUTPUT:O3, NO2, SO2, PM

NINFA

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

NINFA (ER-Chimere-regional) 10*10km

Prev’air (Chimere-continental) 0.5*0.5 degree

Urban Models (ADMS-Urban)

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Emission Inventory CTN-ACE(National Topic Center on Air Climate and Emissions)

Input data: Italian National Inventory 2000 and EMEP 2000

(NOx,NH3,SO2,PM10,CO,VOC)

Output data: Gridded emissions for two national domains Northern (BPA)

and Southern Italy (MED) Time profiles (EPA AP-42, EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook v3.0,

Lombardia regional inventory) Chemical VOC speciation (UK NAEI) Chemical speciation profiles and PM granulometric classes

distribution (EPA, Speciate v3.2)

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

PM10 Annual Emission

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Winter test case: 12-19 february 2004

Model:Chimere regional 10*10 km (release V200410A)

Boundary Conditions: “re-analysis” Chimere continental (0.5*0.5 degree)

Meteo: Lama “re-analysis” Lokal Model (7*7 km)

Emissions: Data set CTN-ACE (5*5 km)

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Average PM10 concentration 12-19 feb. 2004

NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level

General under estimation of PM10

Some ‘hot-spot’ close to energy power plan

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Emission Pm10 (sector 1)/ Pm10 tot

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level

Emissions sector 1 at 4th level

NINFA4: Emissions sector 3 at 2nd level

Other emissions at 1st level

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Winter test case: 12-19 february 2004

Left panel: Continental CHIMERE driven by MM5 (labelled CONT)

Right panel :Regional CHIMERE driven by LM (labelled NINFA4)

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

NINFA4 better reproduces spatial structures although aerosol modelling results are under estimated

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Rural Background stations

Good agreement at Ghegardi and Montecuccolino (TEOM station)!!

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Suburban station (1)

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Suburban station (2)

PM10 simulated concentrations are generally three or four times lower than the observed ones. NINFA4 gives better results

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Granulometric classes distributions and aerosol species (spatial average)

Secondary organic aerosol very low!!!

phno3>ppm!!!

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

NINFA4 reproduces patterns in urban areas (Milan, Turin, Venice) as

well as along major roads

Average NO2 concentration 12-19 feb. 2004

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Rural Background stations

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Suburban station (1)

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Suburban station (2)

NINFA4 seems fairly reproduce NO2

concentrations over the major part of stations

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Discussion and conclusions

NINFA has been implemented at ARPA-SIM. This model provides simulation results for PM and gas species.

Compared to continental model NINFA improve substantially NO2 simulation probably due to more accuracy of anthropogenic emission; comparisons with available data at background and suburban stations give acceptable results on PM10 only in few stations although NINFA gives better results.

Some open questions: The introduction of Point source emission scheme could

improve substantially model skill especially over Po Valley? Secondary organic matter vs. resuspension

1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

Further works

Implementation of latest version of Chimere Test with increasing the model secondary organic

matter and/or resuspension Long-term simulations (summer and winter

seasons)