Operational Impacts of Space Weather - dtic.mil “Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ... Effects of Space Weather on Earth Solar Flare of 14 July ... Range

MIT Lincoln Laboratory2001 Space Control Conf. -1RLL 4/3/2001

Operational Impacts of Space Weather

R. Lambour, A. J. Coster, R. Clouser, L. E. Thornton, J. Sharma, and A. Cott

MIT Lincoln Laboratory

2001 Space Control Conference

3 April 2001


Outline

• Introduction – Space Weather

• Effects on Space-Based Systems

• Effects on Ground-Based systems

• Conclusions


Space Weather

• Definition:– “Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere,

ionosphere, and thermosphere that can affect performanceand reliability of space-based and ground-basedtechnological systems.”*

*


Effects of Space Weather on Earth

Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in

Nine Years

Caused very largemagnetic storm andionospheric effects

SOHO – Solar Flare SOHO – Coronal Mass Ejection




Nine Years






Nine Years



Near peak of 11 Year solar cycle

Activity on Sun, magnetosphere and ionosphere will be amaximum for the next 2-3 years


Outline


• Effects on Space-Based Systems– Space-Based Visible sensor

South Atlantic Anomaly Transient effects Long-term (?) effects

• Effects on Ground-Based systems

• Conclusions


SBV Sensor

• 15 cm high straylightrejection telescope

• 4 - 420x420 LincolnLaboratory CCD

• 1.4 x 1.4 deg field of viewper CCD

• Staring sensor


SBV Sensor

• 15 cm high straylightrejection telescope

• 4 - 420x420 LincolnLaboratory CCD

• 1.4 x 1.4 deg field of viewper CCD

• Staring sensor

• Target and star detection• Clutter rejection• Data compression


Space Environment Effects on SBV


South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)

Energetic particle enhancementat low altitudes due to offset of

magnetic field

SAA

Flux contours of E > 50 MeV Protons at 500 km


SAA Effects on SBV

Protons with energy > 10 MeV affect SBV focal planeand inhibit ability to observe valid target streaks


Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 SolarProton Event

NOAA Geosynchronous Space Environment Summary

Solar Proton Arrival



• Solar flare occurred atend of pinch pointCONOPS testing

• One DCE produced nodata (day 197)

• Decrease in validstreaks over polarregions seen

• Decrease notattributable toanomalies

Day of Year 2000190 192 194 196 198 200

Valid

Str

eaks

per

Fra

mes

et

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

|Latitude| < 60|Latitude| > 60FlareStorm



• False streaks perframeset increasedsignificantly aftersolar flare

Day of Year 2000190 192 194 196 198 200

Fals

e St

reak

s pe

r Fra

mes

et

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0 |Latitude| > 60|Latitude| < 60FlareStorm



• False streaks perframeset increasedsignificantly aftersolar flare

Day of Year 2000190 192 194 196 198 200

Fals

e St

reak

s pe

r Fra

mes

et

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0 |Latitude| > 60|Latitude| < 60FlareStorm

Influx of solar protons over poles degraded SBV performance


Long Term (?) Space EnvironmentEffects

SAA



SAA



SAA

• Area with reduced detections south of SAA noticed in 1998-1999

• Effect investigated by looking geographic distribution of validand false streaks



SAA

Region of interest



SAA

Region of interest

Area of degraded performance persists into 2000


Energetic Particle Source Regions

• NOAA baseline plots show increase in trapped outer-zoneprotons south of SAA in recent years

• Consistent with location of degraded SBV performance

> 6900 keV proton data from NOAA POES MEPED sensor

90°°°°-detector0°°°°-detector

SAATrapped Protons

**SEM-2 system


Outline


• Effects on Space-Based systems

• Effects on Ground-Based systems– Range Delay– Scintillation

– July 14-15th storm

• Conclusions


2m2


Illustration of Atmospheric Effects

Range Delay

2ionosphere 1 fANn e−≈

∆R metersf

N drion e

R( )

. = ∫

40 32 0


Illustration of Atmospheric Effects

Range Delay

2ionosphere 1 fANn e−≈

∆R metersf

N drion e

R( )

. = ∫

40 32 0

Range Delay S-Band L-Band UHF VHF Elev Ionosphere 6 m 32 m 280 m 2 km < 20 °


GRIMS: GPS Real-Time IonosphericMonitoring System

• MIT Lincoln Laboratory built the firstreal-time ionospheric monitoringsystem based on GPS (1991).– Purpose: Part of a radar calibration

system. Operational systems online atFPS-85, ALTAIR, and Millstone satellitetracking radars.

TEC as Function of Azimuth and Elevationaround Millstone Hill Radar, MA


Scintillation

Scintillation cancause additional

errors.

For GPS, theprimary issue isloss of lock. For

radars, the primaryissue is

degradation ofcoherent

integrationcapabilities.


G M T S E C O N D S

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

- 5 0

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

6 4 8 0 0 6 4 9 0 0 6 5 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 0 6 5 2 0 0 6 5 3 0 0 6 5 4 0 0

Negligible scintillation

Time of day (sec GMT)65100 65200 65300 65400

100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

44200 44300 44400 44500 44600Time of day (sec GMT)

44000 44100

Moderate scintillation

ALTAIR VHF Observations on CAL Sphere 2826:Normal Conditions versus Severe Scintillation

0 5-5 10

0 5-5Frequency (Hz)

Frequency (Hz)-10

-10

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (L

og)

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (l

og)

Spectrum in Severe Scintillation

100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

10 64900

Cablewrap

65500

Intense scintillation

10 d

B

Normal Spectrum

G M T S E C O N D S

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

- 5 0

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

6 4 8 0 0 6 4 9 0 0 6 5 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 0 6 5 2 0 0 6 5 3 0 0 6 5 4 0 0



100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)


44000 44100


0 5-5 10

0 5-5Frequency (Hz)

Frequency (Hz)-10

-10

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (L

og)

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (l

og)


100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

10 64900

Cablewrap

65500


10 d

B

Normal Spectrum

G M T S E C O N D S

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

- 5 0

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

6 4 8 0 0 6 4 9 0 0 6 5 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 0 6 5 2 0 0 6 5 3 0 0 6 5 4 0 0



100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)


44000 44100


0 5-5 10

0 5-5Frequency (Hz)

Frequency (Hz)-10

-10

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (L

og)

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (l

og)

ALTAIR VHF TracksCalibration Sphere 2826

.5 m diameter, 850 km circular orbit


100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

10 64900

Cablewrap

65500


10 d

B

Normal Spectrum

G M T S E C O N D S

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

- 5 0

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

6 4 8 0 0 6 4 9 0 0 6 5 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 0 6 5 2 0 0 6 5 3 0 0 6 5 4 0 0



100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)


44000 44100


0 5-5 10

0 5-5Frequency (Hz)

Frequency (Hz)-10

-10

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (L

og)

Pow

er s

pect

ral

dens

ity (l

og)


100

-10-20-30-40-50

RC

S (d

Bsm

)

10 64900

Cablewrap

65500


10 d

B

Normal Spectrum


Solar Flare of 14 July 2000

Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Strikes Earth


Solar Flare of 14 July 2000

Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Strikes Earth

Est. Planetary Kp (3 Hr.) Begin: 2000 Jul 14 0000 UT es

NOAA/SEC Boulder, CO USA


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 5 10 15 20 25 30UTC Time (Hours) starting at day 197

TEC

Uni

ts

POR4WES2NRC1MHR3EGL2

TEC Disturbances on 15 July 2000


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 5 10 15 20 25 30UTC Time (Hours) starting at day 197

TEC

Uni

ts

POR4WES2NRC1MHR3EGL2

TEC Disturbances on 15 July 2000


GPS Loss of Lock at Ottawa andMillstone Hill

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

1 5 . 5 1 5 . 7 5 1 6 1 6 . 2 5 1 6 . 5D a y o f M o n t h

TEC

uni

ts

Loss of Lock onGPS L2 signal

GPS Loss of Lock at Ottawa

Local Westward Ion Velocity at Millstone Hill

Zenith TEC Over Millstone Hill

No.

of S

atel

lites

V W

est (

m/s

)TE

C u

nits

15.5 15.75 16 16.516.25Day of Month


Range Residuals on Calibration Sphere 7646FPS-85 Florida

-50

50

150

250

350

201.87 201.872 201.874 201.876 201.878 201.88

Ran

ge R

esid

uals

(m)

0

100

200

300

400

197.968 197.97 197.972 197.974 197.976

Day of Year (2000)

Rang

e Re

sidu

als

(m)

Typical Residuals

July 15th storm effects


Summary

• Space-Based Visible sensor sensitive to proton radiationenvironment (e.g., SAA)

– Transient effects (solar proton events) can degrade SBV performance

– Long-term changes in the radiation environment may also affectperformance of space-based sensors

• Ground-based radar measurements: ionosphere introduceserrors

– Range Delay and Angle Errors

– Scintillation

• In general, geomagnetic storms make these errors larger andharder to model

• Understanding of space environment facilitates future space-based and ground-based systems

Documents

Operational Impacts of Space Weather - dtic.mil “Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ... Effects of Space Weather on Earth Solar Flare of 14 July ... Range