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Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the worldBy: Neville Mandimika Economist – Rand Merchant Bank
Stylized facts: Regional and global integration
1. A rotation away from inward-looking policies
2. Get accustomed to regional relat ive valuations
3. Recoupl ing to global and regional growth dynamics
RMB DNAINVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SCORE
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT SCORE
50%50%
Market Size60%
Market Growth 40%
Business Index25% 25%
Global Competitive Index
Corruption Perceptions Index
Economic Freedom Index
25% 25%
2016 Current
Where does Zimbabwe rank?
39 45Botswana: 12
Zambia: 17
Mozambique: 19
Malawi: 30
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Botswana Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe%
ECONOMIC GROWTH
MARKET SIZEAngola, 11%
Ethiopia, 7%
Kenya, 7%
igeria, 32%
Zimbabwe, 1%
5101520253035
Cam
eroo
n
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Bots
wan
a
Sene
gal
Moz
ambi
que
Mal
awi
US$,bn
Time to catch upZambia
6.5%
Uganda
7%
Côte d ’ Ivo i re
20%!
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Zim
babw
e
Tuni
sia
Nam
ibia
Mor
occo
Seyc
helle
s
Sout
h Af
rica
Bots
wan
a
Rwan
da
Mau
ritiu
s
Africa Average• Policy incoherence
• Exchange controls
• Indigenization Act
• Bond notes?
BOND NOTES – A NEW DAWN?
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 May 17 Aug 17 Nov 17 Feb 18
USD/BOL - Old Mutual USD/BOL - Bitcoin USD/BOL - PPC
Elections
Non-credible elections
FDI and portfolio flows
stay on the sidelines
Credible elections
FDI and portfolio flows resume
It’s not who wins but how that matters