• Opening Remarks

• Federal Perspective

• State Perspective

• Q&A

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Anoop Mishra (Anoop.Mishra@atl.frb.org)

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Birmingham

Presentation for BMSS

A Fed perspective on economic

outlook and recovery

October 1, 2020

The views expressed here are mine and not necessarily

those of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or

the Federal Reserve System.

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Raphael Bostic

President and CEO

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Nashville

Birmingham

New Orleans

Atlanta

Jacksonville

Miami

The Atlanta Fed

Fed actions in recent months

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❖ Recovery continues as the pace of growth has slowed

❖ Widening gap between resilient and struggling businesses

Key Points

❖ Public health solution will ultimately drive full recovery

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Aggregate data tends to hide wide disparities in sectors

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Retail Sales

Retail and Food Services, Total

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

Building Materials, GardenEquipment and Supplies Dealers

Food and Beverage Stores

Gasoline Stations

Clothing and Clothing AccessoryStores

Nonstore Retailers

Food Services and DrinkingPlaces

Source: Census Bureau

Index: Feb = 100

Recovery Alphabet

8Source: Wall Street Journal

Lengthening of expected trajectory of recovery

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Survey of Business Uncertainty

Source: Survey of Business Uncertainty conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Stanford University, and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Low Skill Middle Skill High Skill

Job losses and gains by Occupation

Employment share (Feb 2020)

Share of job losses (between Feb and Apr 2020)

Share of job gains (between Apr and July 2020)

Source: Current Population Survey, staff calculations. Low skill jobs are primarily service jobs; Middle skill includes sales and office, construction, production, and transportation jobs; high skill are

management, professional and technical jobs.

Disparate impacts in labor force

❖ Permanency / next wave of layoffs

❖ Resiliency of middle wage labor market

❖ Consumer health without federal supports

Top of mind in recovery

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Limited flexibility in model

Rigid supply chain

Minimal access to capital

Business co-morbidities

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Source: Survey of Business Uncertainty conducted by FRB Atlanta, Stanford University, and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

After the COVID-19 pandemic is over, do you anticipate your firm’s annual travel expenditures to increase, decrease, or remain the same relative to the pre-COVID period?

Anticipated Percentage Change in Travel Expenditure after the Pandemic

Mean Count

Overall -28.6 338

Ind

ust

ry

Construction, real estate, mining and utilities -32.9 40

Manufacturing -26.1 76

Retail and wholesale trade -5.6 53

Business Services -36.7 139

Other Services -36.6 30

Structural changes

Summary of Economic Projections (SEP):

Real GDP

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (September 16, 2020) 14

Summary of Economic Projections (SEP):

Unemployment Rate

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (September 16, 2020)15

EconomyNow

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Greg Canfield

State of Alabama

Secretary of the Alabama Department of Commerce

401 Adams Avenue

P.O. Box 304106

Montgomery, AL 36130-4106

(334) 242-0400

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