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• Opening Remarks
• Federal Perspective
• State Perspective
• Q&A
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Anoop Mishra ([email protected])
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Birmingham
Presentation for BMSS
A Fed perspective on economic
outlook and recovery
October 1, 2020
The views expressed here are mine and not necessarily
those of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or
the Federal Reserve System.
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Raphael Bostic
President and CEO
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Nashville
Birmingham
New Orleans
Atlanta
Jacksonville
Miami
The Atlanta Fed
Fed actions in recent months
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❖ Recovery continues as the pace of growth has slowed
❖ Widening gap between resilient and struggling businesses
Key Points
❖ Public health solution will ultimately drive full recovery
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Aggregate data tends to hide wide disparities in sectors
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Retail Sales
Retail and Food Services, Total
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Building Materials, GardenEquipment and Supplies Dealers
Food and Beverage Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing AccessoryStores
Nonstore Retailers
Food Services and DrinkingPlaces
Source: Census Bureau
Index: Feb = 100
Recovery Alphabet
8Source: Wall Street Journal
Lengthening of expected trajectory of recovery
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Survey of Business Uncertainty
Source: Survey of Business Uncertainty conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Stanford University, and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Low Skill Middle Skill High Skill
Job losses and gains by Occupation
Employment share (Feb 2020)
Share of job losses (between Feb and Apr 2020)
Share of job gains (between Apr and July 2020)
Source: Current Population Survey, staff calculations. Low skill jobs are primarily service jobs; Middle skill includes sales and office, construction, production, and transportation jobs; high skill are
management, professional and technical jobs.
Disparate impacts in labor force
❖ Permanency / next wave of layoffs
❖ Resiliency of middle wage labor market
❖ Consumer health without federal supports
Top of mind in recovery
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Limited flexibility in model
Rigid supply chain
Minimal access to capital
Business co-morbidities
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Source: Survey of Business Uncertainty conducted by FRB Atlanta, Stanford University, and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
After the COVID-19 pandemic is over, do you anticipate your firm’s annual travel expenditures to increase, decrease, or remain the same relative to the pre-COVID period?
Anticipated Percentage Change in Travel Expenditure after the Pandemic
Mean Count
Overall -28.6 338
Ind
ust
ry
Construction, real estate, mining and utilities -32.9 40
Manufacturing -26.1 76
Retail and wholesale trade -5.6 53
Business Services -36.7 139
Other Services -36.6 30
Structural changes
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP):
Real GDP
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (September 16, 2020) 14
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP):
Unemployment Rate
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (September 16, 2020)15
EconomyNow
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Greg Canfield
State of Alabama
Secretary of the Alabama Department of Commerce
401 Adams Avenue
P.O. Box 304106
Montgomery, AL 36130-4106
(334) 242-0400
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email us at [email protected].
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