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1
September 6, 2012
Masayoshi Son Founder and Chairperson
Japan Renewable Energy Foundation
Opening Remarks
2
Safety for future generations
3
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%
3 Scenarios for Energy Strategy in Japan
4
Target for introducing Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy
35%
Renewable Energy
30%
Thermal
65% Thermal
55%
Scenarios: Zero Nuclear 15% Nuclear
Renewable Energy
More than 30%
mandatory
target
Nuclear
15%
5
Renewable Energy Deployment
in 2012 (forecast)
+ 2 million kW + 380,000 kW *Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, “Feed-in Tariff Scheme in Japan” (July 2012)
Solar Power Wind Power
6
~
Need to
increase
more than
6 times
(within 18 years)
19 GW
120 GW
140 GW
2012 2030 (18 years later)
Renewable Energy to be deployed by 2030
*Estimate by JREF based on data by National Policy Unit
7 *Source: Ministry of Environment, “Study of Potential for the Introduction of Renewable Energy (FY 2010)”
Renewable Energy
potential does exist
Wind Energy Potential (Hokkaido)
540 GW
Wind Energy Potential (Kyushu)
480 GW
Grid operation
optimized for
separate regions
Hokkaido Electric Power
Tohoku Electric Power
TEPCO Hokuriku Electric Power
Chubu Electric Power
Kansai Electric Power
Chugoku Electric Power
Shikoku Electric Power
Kyushu Electric Power
Renewable
Energy does not
reach consumers
9
Nationwide integrated operation of grids
Solution 1 Tohoku EP
TEPCO
Hokuriku EP
Chubu EP
Kansai EP
Kyushu EP
Chugoku EP
Shikoku EP
Hokkaido EP
Independent grid operators
10
Grid reinforcement for long-distance
transmission
Solution 2
11
2030
Abundant Renewable Energy for Japan
12
The remaining issue
13
Price rise
(Households/corporations)
14
Electricity cost by scenario (Government estimates)
Zero
Nuclear
15%
Nuclear
20~25%
Nuclear
¥10,000 (2010)
¥16,000~23,000
Will Zero Nuclear
raise the cost?
¥13,000~18,000 ¥13,000~18,000
15
Want to keep the cost
as low as possible
16
One major
misunderstanding
17
¥13.2 ¥ 12.6~13.4
¥12.6~13.9
Power generation cost
(reviewed) (per kWh)
Zero Nuclear 15%
Nuclear
20~25%
Nuclear
No major
difference in
electricity cost
*Estimate by JREF
18
In order to keep
the cost down,
we need an environment
for sound competition
19
Targeted
for
Liberalization
Not
Targeted
67%
(Total power demand: 1000 TWh)
Formally,
two-thirds are
liberalized
2000 Liberalization of EHV
(Extra High Voltage)
2004 Partial liberalization of HV
2005 Complete liberalization of HV
*Source: Handbook of Electric Power Industry 2010
20
Conventional Power Suppliers
96.5%
PPS (New Power Producers &
Suppliers) 3.5%
Present share of the liberalized market
(Feb. 2012)
Liberalization
without
substance
*Source: Handbook of Electric Power Industry 2010
21
・・・
・・・
Transmission Dept.
Generation Dept.
Retail Dept.
Po
wer C
om
pan
y
High access
charges
Adverse effect of the conventional system (Accounting separation)
Connection to grid
refused
Unfair competition G
en
era
tion
Co
mp
an
y
“A
”
Gen
era
tion
Co
mp
an
y
“B
”
Reta
il
Co
mp
an
y
“C
”
Reta
il
Co
mp
an
y
“D
”
22
Separation of
power generation
and transmission
(Separation of ownership)
Solution
・・・
・・・
・・・
・・・
23
Legal separation Ownership separation
Ineffective Fair competition
Ge
ne
ratio
n
Co
mp
an
y
“A
”
Ge
ne
ratio
n
Co
mp
an
y
“B
”
Transmission Company
Generation Company
Retail Company
Reta
il C
om
pan
y
“C
”
Reta
il C
om
pan
y
“D
”
Gen
era
tion
C
om
pan
y
“A
”
Gen
era
tion
C
om
pan
y
“B
”
Transmission Company
Generation Company
Retail Company
Re
tail
Co
mp
an
y
“C
”
Re
tail
Co
mp
an
y
“D
”
Ho
ldin
g C
om
pan
y
24
(Competitive area)
Deregulation
(Neutral area)
Strengthened regulation
(Competitive area)
Deregulation
Ge
ne
ratio
n
Co
mp
an
y
“A
”
Ge
ne
ratio
n
Co
mp
an
y
“B
”
Transmission Company
Generation Company
Retail Company
Reta
il C
om
pan
y
“C
”
Reta
il C
om
pan
y
“D
”
Fair competition
Ownership separation
25
Keeping energy prices low
26
Separation form of
power generation
and transmission
will greatly change
Japan’s energy cost
27
Towards YR2030 and Beyond
28
29
Appendix
30 Legal separation cannot create an environment for fair competition
Legal separation Ownership separation
PPS
(New Players) ? Possible interference ✔ No interference
Grid connection ✘ Possible biased
prioritization ✔ Neutral operation
Costs for monitoring competitive environment
✘ Incurred ✔ No cost
Connection
charges ✘ Constantly high ✔
Optimized for market
environment
Evaluation of generation/transmission separation forms