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Open Source Intelligence for the 21st Century
Electric Shock in Four Parts
May 2008
“Jim Woolsey and Bill Clinton’s relationships exposes the problems of
analysis and information in a global world where research, intelligence and authority arguably have new owners”.
“Woolsey was Old Testament and Clinton was Post Modern”
Al Gore
Theory and different types of analysis is one of the major growth areas in the last few
decades.
We are now going to add to that trend.
Part One
Unreliable Evidence
Information Agenda• I want to discuss what it means to do analysis and intelligence
in a world where few respect information’s authority.
• Where the client often believes that they have as much to contribute as the specialist.
• Where electronic distribution technology has overwhelmed most government organisation’s ability.
• And where a clear understanding of delivering information/intelligence for an individual user and their particular needs is often missing.
• Let us begin with a brief history and some important information events…..
Open Source Information Transition 1455 to 2008
1455 to 1898
1898 to 1994
1994 to 2008
Printer/ Publisher(Reformation)
Multimedia Radio/CinemaTV/Databases(Mass one way Communications)
IntranetsOnline/WebE-open sourceintelligence
Information/intelligenceis now about linking actionable knowledge for immediate use of a particular user...
Part Two
Suicide Terror and Hidden Agenda
Issues surrounding 9/11
• Open sources were seen as secondary.
• Most intelligence clients subscribed to open sources in paper and electronically.
• Many had marked relevant articles for reading.
• Problems of overload, classified traffic and lack of strategic focus on asymmetric threat.
• Fundamentally the terrorists were seen as a minor not major threat at that time.
100s of Al-Qaeda Articles
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
US embassy bombings - Nairobi / Dar es Salaam
USS Cole - Yemen
Threats against US
assets
Threats against US
assets
What Else Did We know?
Articles in the hundreds
Part Three
Different Methodologies
Objective
Deliver information that is conditioned and designed to support the intelligence collection and analysis process:
• Quicker and easier to find
• More usable / ‘ready for analysis’
• Analysis and report building tools
Customer Problem
• Not finding the precise data because of info- overload. The cost, the time and resources.
• Not knowing what is and isn’t validated.
• Problem of not knowing what you know.
• 75% of operational information requests are for information that is already known.
• Problem of not knowing what you don’t know and missing critical information.
Intelligent Search & Discovery
InformationSources
InformationSources
Search
Results ListXxxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxx
Google experience•1,000s of results that may or may not be relevant to users actual needs•Important info is easily missed or not even found
InformationSources
InformationSources
Knowledge-enabled experience
DomainKnowledgeMetadata
Layer
Guided search/nav HighlyFocusedResultsThat meetUser Needs
Analytical tools
Info discovery
Data visualisation
Report building
Profiling & alerting
Content/Technology Landscape
Manually intensive
Established technology
After the event
Moderate volume
Some structure
Automated processes
Emerging technology
Real time
Massive volume
Unstructured
Chat Rooms
Blogs
Online News
Online Journals
Research Reports
Reference Databases
Data Visualisation
Entity Extraction
Search / Retrieval
Content Management
Alerts / Profiling
Content
Technology
Evolution of Taxonomy Technologies
Search and Retrieval Software ( “and”, “or” and “not” )
Boolean Logic ( search results return too many possible documents )
Meta-data ( “data” about “data” : Relevancy and consistency were questionable)
Link Ranking ( importance determined by popularity and use )
Taxonomy
Future Information Architecture
Content Management• XML • Databases
Domain Knowledge / Exploitation• Taxonomies• Entities/relships• Key facts/data
ReusableInformationObjects
Reference • Editorial opsNews Images
OnlineApplications
• Alerting• Search/browse• Guided nav• Visualisation• Report building
TailoredInformationServices
Offline DataServices
HardCopy
Linking of data to produce immediate trend analysis
Taxonomies, Data Conditioning, Visualisation and Deeper
Analysis.
Providing knowledge workers with work tools to quickly accesshighly focused information from multiple sources
News
Analysis
Reference
Images
world news
Web Resources
Web Monitoring
Contextual Advertising
Company Press Releases
ANALYST
CONTENT SOURCES
Searching
Taxonomies
WORK TOOLS
Alerting
Exporting
Reporting
Visualisation
OtherAnalyticalTools
Other sources
Intelligence Centres
Data Visualisation
Data Visualisation
Creating Open Source Intelligence
• The Intelligence process uses Rationalism : collect the data, make an assessment, write the analysis and deliver/publish the intelligence.
• This is only one method of producing intelligence and we should continue to use a rationalistic approach.
• Also another process that we are now exploring is non-linear. It is more of a dialogue between specialists and generalists and is more interactive.
• This has ramification: everything from office layout, meetings to editorial systems/practice. And the connectivity of content and improved service.
Part Four
Post Modern Mirrors
Variable Future - New Past
Information and Intelligence Methodologies
•Linear Intelligence.
•Scenario Planning.
•Mosaic Method.• These are not meant as final answers.
Traditional Linear Intelligence
• Task, collect the facts, rank and validate facts, make assessment, Independent review, complete the analysis and present the results.
• This process is very robust as a method.
• However it is not enough as a process in uncertain threat environments.
Alneda – the call
• Site hosted in Malaysia.• Appeared before 911.• Al Qaeda named by US Intelligence.• Shut down in 2002 by Al Qaeda as
they opened new sites with their new name.
Things known about Al Qaeda• Once they have targeted a person or place they
continue until they believe the task to be completed.• They use Western technology but despise its creators.• They seriously believe women are lower in the social
and intellectual order. • Their revolution had failed in every country they tried.• Use Toyota vehicles.
• They have been given prominence by the West. • They have been branded by America.
Scenario Planning – Creative Options
• They mean teams of both specialists and generalists working rather than the focus of a few specialist individuals.
• These methods are very useful for bringing ideas to the surface
• They are not a replacement for Linear techniques but should work as a complementary methodology.
• We are using technology and scenario techniques to clarify our thought processes.
•These methods suggest thinking out of the box.
Twelve Categories of Information• Factual • Contextual• Analytical• Opinion• Covert• Operational
Unintended Consequences – future training and targeting – historical parallels and practices
• Publicity• Historical• Inaccurate• Propaganda• Spin• Bias
BCurrentfocus
Analysis
Opinion
History
Bias, Spin, Propaganda
Scenario
Analysis
Validation
A Scenario Analysis Model
Finally lets look at a Mosaic Method
Mosaic Method
• Created by Information thinkers like Marshall McLuhan and writers like Robert D. Kaplan.
• Building the world you wish to investigate from its history, imagery, graffiti, popular culture, humour through to its boundaries, prejudices, cultural conventions, social economics and local politics.
• Useful as a means towards new perspectives on a problem but a method that works along side others.
Mosaic
• Research methods that link different cultural understandings such that usable new knowledge is created.
• Using technology to condition information’s context so the links are relevant and actionable.
• Bringing clients, researchers and generalists together in an equal and collaborative focus.
The Global Stress Point Matrix (GSPM)
15 Lebanon – Hezbollah
Mosaic Method
Open Sources
Al Qaeda
• Copies other terrorist organisations.• Uses technology it despises.• Encourages suicide attacks and pays
martyrs’ families for sacrifices.• 9/11 originally included an attack on LAX -
Los Angeles airport.• Trained pilots one of whom said he did not
need training in landing.• Had studied Kamikaze pilot techniques.
Hezbollah
• Has carried out more suicide attacks than Al Qaeda.• Designated as a terrorist group by some Western
governments and not by others. The IRA was similarly designated by some and not others.
• Has had significant disagreements with al Qaeda.• What is considered acceptable by one culture is not
allowed in another.• Sophisticated Web sites continue to move location to
stop interference and censorship.• They consider they won the recent 2006 conflict with
Israel.
Summary
• In a global electronic environment pattern recognition has become as important as linear analysis.
• As analysis and consultants we have to be aware of the new client requirements for actionable Intelligence that will measurably save them people, time and money.
• We must understand where our cultural bias lies and what effect this has on our final analysis.
• We have to take account of the cultural shock that the Web is causing and the effect it has on understanding, authority and power.
• Intelligence must be designed for the action and the understanding of the final user.
Final Conclusion• Digital Publishing is altering the cultural landscape.• Re-writing the past and the future will be common place.
• Expect massive technology and social shifts - and a backlash as government e-surveillance increases.
• Continually re-educate yourself to ensure that someone in another country who you will never meet, cannot take your job.
Intelligence for the 21st Century
Electric Shock –The End
Thank you for Listening
May 2008
