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Improving the role of River Basin Organisations insustainable river basin governance by linking socialinstitutional capacity and basin biophysical capacityJournal ItemHow to cite:

Bouckaert, Frederick; Wei, Yongping; Hussey, Karen; Pittock, Jamie and Ison, Ray (2018). Improving the roleof River Basin Organisations in sustainable river basin governance by linking social institutional capacity and basinbiophysical capacity. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 33 pp. 70–79.

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ImprovingtheroleofRiverBasinOrganisationsinsustainableriverbasingovernancebylinkingsocialinstitutionalcapacityandbasinbiophysicalcapacityAuthors:FrederickBouckaert1,YongpingWei1,KarenHussey1,JamiePittock2,RayIson31UniversityofQueensland2TheAustralianNationalUniversity3AppliedSystemsThinkinginPracticeGroup,STEMFaculty,TheOpenUniversityUKAbstractTheriverbasinorganisation(RBO)modelhasbeenadvocatedasorganisationalbestpracticeforsustainableriverbasinmanagement,despitescantevidenceofitseffectivenesstomanagecomplexriversystems.Thisreviewprovidesaframeworkwhichcombinesfunctionalsocial-institutionalcapacitieswithbasinbiophysicalindicatorsinadiagnostictooltodetermineRBOgovernanceperformance.Eachofthesetwocapacitiesarerepresentedbyfourgroupsofindicatorsrespectivelycoveringsociallearningcapacityandbiophysicalcapacity.Thedistanceandalignmentbetweencapacityandmeasureofperformancescorescanbeusedtoprioritiseprogramplanningandresourceallocationforimprovingriverbasingovernance,andtoundertakeperiodicevaluationsaspartofatrajectoryanalysis.Thediagnosticfunctionalframeworkprovidestangibleindicatorsofperformancearoundkeyconceptsinriverbasingovernance.ItoffersafirstattempttostrengthenthepositionandeffectivenessofanRBOindealingwithcomplexadaptivesystems.IntroductionGovernanceofriverbasinsiscomplexandcontextspecific[1],nevertheless,manygovernanceissuesaresimilararoundtheworld:drought(demandexceedssupply),flooding(supplyexceedsdemand)andwaterqualitydegradation(pollution,saltwaterintrusion,turbidity,algalblooms,etc.)[2].Emergingthreatstosustainabledevelopmentofourwaterresourcesincludechangesinhydrology,geomorphology,erosion,sedimentation,andconnectivitydrivenbypopulationpressure,economicdevelopmentandclimatechange,andtheresultingdegradationoffreshwaterecosystemsandecosystemservices[3,4].Watercrisesareevidenteverywhere,withalmostnoriverbasincurrentlymanagedsustainablyanywhereintheworld–afactwhichisincreasinglyrecognizedasbeingafailureingovernance[5].Thecrisisofriverbasingovernancehasbeeninvestigatedfromtheperspectivesofcollaborativegovernance[6,7](adaptivegovernance[8,9,10]andsociallearning[5]),socialcontracts(covenantaction[11],ecosystemassetmanagement[12],partnershipaccountability[13])andtopdownregulation(hydrocracyandoverallocation[2],hierarchytheory[14**],politicsofknowledge[15]).Acentralpillarinintegratedriverbasinmanagement(IRBM)hasbeentheestablishmentofriverbasinorganisations(RBOs),yettheefficacyofthoseorganisationshasreceivedrelativelylittleattention,excepttotheextentthatscholarsandpractitionersalikeagreethattheobjectivesofRBOsareoftenilldefinedandgovernanceperformanceofRBOsarepoorlymeasured[16].RiverbasinsunderstoodassystemsexhibitthesamecharacteristicsthatarecapturedinOstrom’sSocial-EcologicalSystemsframework[17],andtheaimofthispaperistoproposeadiagnosticfunctional

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frameworkthatcanbeusedtostrengthentheroleofRBOsinsustainableriverbasingovernance.Thispaperisstructuredasfollows.Theissuessectionwillhighlightkeygovernanceissuesincludingtheroleandpositionoftheriverbasinorganisation(RBO),andthevariousrelevantconceptualframeworksandtheirlimitationstoaddressthosegovernanceissues.Inthenextsection,adiagnosticframeworkisconceptualisedfortheroleofRBOinintegratedriverbasinmanagement,includingindicators,attributesandtrajectoryforimplementingandusingtheframework.Thediscussionandconclusionsectionhighlightstheimplicationsoftheproposedframework.Finally,thenextstepsforamoredetailedanalysisandevaluationoftheframeworkaresuggested.IssuesARBOcanbedescribedasanorganisationthatismadeupofanumberofrulesrelatedtoauthority,aggregation,boundaries,informationandpay-off(distributionofbenefitsandcosts)ofariverbasin[18,19].RBOsareanimportantcomponentofintegratedriverbasinmanagement(IRBM)andaimtogovernabasin’sgeographicboundaries,usingabioregionalapproachandallowingasystem-wideapproach,combinedwithacoordinationfunctionacrosstheoften-numeroussub-catchmentorganisationsthatcanexistinabasin,orevenaspartofawatertransferscheme.Inthisway,someRBOscanalsoexhibitstrongelementsofpolycentricgovernanceinpractice[20].Thus,asacoordinatinginstitution,theRBOcanalsocreatethepolicyspacewheretop-downregulationcanmeetbottom-upparticipationtoaddressstakeholderuserneedsatvariousspatialscales,despitethewidearrayofagencyitrepresents.Relatedintegratedwaterresourcemanagement(IWRM)principlesincludestakeholderparticipationatlocalandcatchmentscales,theneedforadaptivemanagement(learningbydoing)usinganevidencebasedinterdisciplinaryapproach,andmanagementforsustainableandequitabletriplebottomlineoutcomes(social,economicandenvironmental)[21].ThedefinitionofIWRMprovidedbytheGlobalWaterPartnershipis‘aprocesswhichpromotesthecoordinateddevelopmentandmanagementofwater,landandrelatedresources,inordertomaximizetheresultanteconomicandsocialwelfareinanequitablemannerwithoutcompromisingthesustainabilityofvitalecosystems’[21].DespitebeingcritiquedbyBiswasin2004[22]forhavingnotangibleoperationalvalue,recentdevelopmentsfacilitatingIWRMincludedownsizingtechnology,decentralizationandsubsidiarity,andincreasingknowledgearoundadaptivemanagementandsociallearning[23,24,25,26].RBOgovernancetypesandagencyvarywidelyaroundtheworld,resultingindifferentimplementationpracticesfortheirthreecorefunctions(regulating,planningandmanaging)[21].RBOshavebeencriticisedformanydifferentshortcomings.Forexample,mostRBOshavebeensuperimposedonexistinggovernancestructures,whichoftenbringthemintoconflictwithnationalorstatepoliciesandinstitutionalinteractionswhenitcomestopolicyprioritiesanddecision-makingpower[27].RBOscansufferfromrigidinstitutionaldependencypathways[28**],bureaucratisation[20],asymmetryofknowledgeandpowerwithregardtokeystakeholders[15]andoverdevelopment[29].FeasibilityandeffectivenessofRBOperformanceremainselusive[15],objectivesareoftenilldefinedandsuccessratesarepoorlymeasuredandcontested[16].Despitethesecriticisms,theglobalwatermanagementdiscourseoftenstillfavoursstrongRBOsasadvocatedbytheGlobal

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WaterPartnership(GWP)andtheInternationalNetworkofBasinOrganisations(INBO)[21].Nevertheless,RBOsoccupyacentral,leadingroleinthegovernanceofriverbasinsbytheircapacitytogovernfromanecosystemperspectiveincludingtheabilitytorespondtothecontrollingspatialandtemporalscalesatwhichbiophysicalprocessesoccur[27].Inordertoovercomegovernanceshortcomings,approachesandtoolsareneededforstrengtheningtheroleofRBOsforsustainableriverbasingovernance.Watergovernance-asmanifestthroughhumanintervention-aimsatchangingwatercyclesforsocietalorenvironmentalpurposes.TheGlobalWaterPartnership[21]definedwatergovernanceas‘therangeofpolitical,social,economicandadministrativesystemsthatareinplacetodevelopandmanagewaterresources,andthedeliveryofwaterservices,atdifferentlevelsofsociety.’Thisdefinitionprovidesguidingprinciplesforgoodwatergovernancebutdoesnotaddresssufficientlythecomplexityofrealgovernanceregimes.Indicatorshavebeenusedasanimportanttooltoactas‘signposts’toflagwhereeffortcanbemadeforimprovementinthemanagementsystemsofriverbasins.DeStefano(2010)[30]distinguishestwogroupsofindicators.Thefirst,numericindicatorsareusuallybasedonscientificinformationonthebio-physicalsystemand,itisargued,moreideallyidentifytheimpactofmanagement.Theseinclude,forexample,theindicatorsdevelopedbyOECD,theEuropeanEnvironmentAgency(EEA),theWorldBankandUNESCO.Thesecondtypeofindicatorsprovidequalitativeassessmentandarelinkedmorecloselytothequestion“whatisgoodgovernance?”.TheWorldBanklistedfivecomponentsofgoodgovernance:publicsectormanagement,acompetitiveprivatesector,thestructureofgovernment,civilsocietyparticipationandvoice,andpoliticalaccountability.AccordingtoPahl-Wostletal.[23],goodgovernanceshouldinclude“qualitiesofaccountability,transparency,legitimacy,publicparticipation,justice,efficiency,theruleoflaw,andanabsenceofcorruption.”Hooper[31]inhisworktookasummaryofexistingqualitativeindicatorsforintegratedwaterresourcemanagementanddevelopedanindicatorsystemforriverbasingovernanceassessmentwith115indicatorsintotalfromtenaspectsofwatergovernance.Thisisthemostcomprehensiveriverbasingovernanceassessmentsystemintheliterature. Therealisationthatsustainablewatermanagementtranscendsimplementationoftechnicalscientificprogramsandiscontingentonconcertedactionsfrommultiplestakeholdersiswellacceptedandhasfocusedonthecomplexityofhuman-environmentinteractions.Severalinterdisciplinaryframeworkshaveemergedtoexplainthehuman-environmentsystemrelatingtowatergovernance.Mostofthesearegroundedinprocessbasedconceptualframeworks,suchastheDriver,Pressure,State,Impact,Response(DPSIR)framework[12],ManagementandTransitionFramework(MTF)[32],IntegratedEnvironmentalAssessment(IEA)[33],InstitutionalAnalysisandDevelopment(IAD)framework[34]andsocialecologicalsystem(SES)framework[17]. Admittedly,whiletheseexistingassessmentindicatorssystemsandconceptualframeworksincludeseveralimportantaspectsforgoodriverbasingovernance,therearealsoanumberofproblemswiththem. Firstly, theseindicatorsand/orframeworksseparatenaturalprocesses(asdrivers)frompolicyprocesses(astheanalyticalconcern)andeitherusestructuralend-pointvariablesandlinearprojectionstomakepredictionsoffutureoutcomes(DPSIRandIEA),orfocusonanarrowlyboundedlinearactionprocessintime(IAD,MTF).

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TheSESframeworkontheotherhanddoesnotprovideclearguidanceonhowthevariousindicatorsunderitskeyfourcomponentsrelatetoeachother.Thismeanstheyareunabletocapturethedynamicsbetweenthecomplexityofpolicyprocessesandsocial-ecologicalpolicycontexts.Secondly,byandlarge,governancecapacityandbasinbiophysical/ecologicalunderstandinghaveremainedtwoseparatedisciplines,andintegrationofgovernanceprocessesandmanagementoutcomeshasnotbeenattempted.Thisoftenresultsinasiloedapproachwhenreportingagainsttriplebottomline(social,economicandenvironmental),resultinginseeminglycompetingobjectives[34,35].Inpart,thiscanbeattributedtomethodologicaldifferences:socialscience[5,20,21]isconvergingonqualitativeanddescriptiveassessments[11]whereasbiophysicalscienceoftenusesquantitativeandmathematicalestimationstomeasureandmodeloutcomesatlocal,basin,national,regionalorevenglobalscales[10,36,37,38**,39].Thisdifferenceinapproachpresentschallengesincombiningperformanceindicatorsinanevaluationframework,requiredtotrackgenuineprogressinsustainableadaptivegovernance.Thirdly,co-evolutionaryprocessesasastructuralfeatureofawatergovernancesystemarelargelymissinginexistingframeworks.Itisthereforenotpossibletounderstandtheriverbasingovernancesystembyanalysingthemastwoseparatecomponentsthatcanbeaggregatedinafinalstep:understandingtheseprocessesareaprerequisiteforassessmentsofgovernanceinstitutions.Insummary,thefunctionoftheRBOwithregardtoitsagencyinthe‘co-evolvingsystem’thatariverbasinrepresentshasreceivedrelativelylittleattention.Currentassessmentindicatorsandconceptualframeworksarestillquitefarawayfromhavinganadequateknowledgebaseeitherfromanormativeorananalyticalperspectiveonriverbasingovernanceassessment.Integrative approachesandperformancetoolsareneededtostrengthentheroleofRBOsforsustainableriverbasingovernance. AdiagnosticframeworkforassessingthecapacityofRBOinsustainableriverbasingovernanceAdiagnosticframeworkforassessingthecapacityofRBOsinsustainableriverbasingovernanceisproposedinFigure1.Itprovidesameanstoanalysecomplexpolicysituations,basedonfunctionalprocessinteractionsofriverbasingovernancewithinandbetweenthesocial-institutionalandbiophysicalsystemsofthebasin;amutualdependencyexistswhichhasitsoriginsthroughcoevolution[8,9].Insteadofthesocialsystembeingconceivedassuperimposedonthebiophysicalsystem,theself-emergingandinteractingpropertiesinbothdomainshaveequalweightingandcaninfluenceeachotherinunpredictableandunexpectedways,requiringflexibilityandmanagementofuncertaintyindecisionmaking[40**,41].Specifically,thewayweconceptualiselandscapeanditsuseinpolicyimplementationwillhaveadirectmediatingeffectonthebiophysicalsystem,asisevidencedindecisionsaroundmaintainingriverbankvegetationandwetlandconnections,waterdiversions,dambuildingandriverflowregulation[42].Thesepressureswillresultinco-evolutionarybiophysical

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adaptationswhicharenotalwayspredictablebutwhichwillimposefurtherconstraintsonsocial-institutionalevolutionaryresponses.Inthisframework,theRBOisdefinedasthecoordinatingfunctionofinstitutionalcapacitywhichgovernsthegeographicdomainofinterestofariverbasin,butisboundedbyexternalgovernancecontextsandexternaldrivers.TheRBOcontextandexternaldrivers(listedoutsideofthesystemdomains,Figure1)enable,constrainanddefinetheRBOandtheinstitutionalcapacityofthebasin.InsomecaseswhereanRBOisyettobeestablished,thiscontextwilldefineitsfuturestructureandgovernancefunction,asinthecaseoftheChindwinRiverinMyanmar[50].ExternaldriverscanbedefinedasthoseinfluencingfactorsoverwhichtheRBOhaslittlecontrol,suchaspopulationgrowth,largescalelandusechange,climatechangeorwaterdemand.Inevitably,thegovernanceandmanagementoftheriverbasinwillhavetoadjusttosomeoftheseexternalfactorswithlimitedscopetoinfluencethem. TheboundarycontextforanRBOconsistsofthosesocial-institutionalsettingsthathavecreatedtheRBO,suchasthesocialvalues,theinitialvision,associatedlegalframeworks,technology,nationalandinternationalgovernancethatcollectivelymakeupthesocial-historicalcontextinwhichtheRBOwasdefined.Thisofcourseistightlycoupledtothebiophysicalcharacteristicsofthebroaderregion.Withinthesesettings,thebasingovernanceandgeographicboundariesaredefined,andconstitutetheremitoftheRBO.TheboundarycontextcanbeinfluencedtoagreaterextentbytheRBO,whichoftenprovidesafeedbackfunctionaspartofitsbroaderaccountability.Thedistinctionisimportant,becausethegovernanceandmanagementoftheriverbasinformsthekeyfocusofdailyactivity,whereascontextualissueswillonlyarisefromtimetotime,andmaybelinkedtosignificantsystemorgovernancechanges(tippingpoints).ThegovernanceperformanceoftheRBOconsistsofsocialinstitutionalcapacityandbasinbiophysicalcapacitywhicharetwocomponentsofaco-evolvedsystem(themiddleintersectionofFigure1,withintheadaptivemanagementarrowcircle).Eachsystemconsistsoffourfunctionalindicatordimensionsconsideredgeneric,irreducible,complementaryandco-dependent;theyinfluenceeachotherinnon-linearwayscharacteristicofcomplex,adaptiveco-evolvedsystems.Withineachfunctionalindicatorarenestedattributestoassistcharacterisingtheriverbasin;theywillbeusedbykeystakeholderstodefinetheeightindicatorsinwaysthatarespecifictothebasincontextinquestion.

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Figure1:AdiagnosticframeworkforassessingthecapacityofRBOinsustainablerivergovernance

ThesocialinstitutionalcapacityincludestheRBOanditsagency,andtheinteractionswithrelevantstakeholderinstitutions.TheinstitutionalarrangementsinstigatedbyandsurroundingtheRBO,willtoalargeextentdefineitsgovernancecapacity.Theindicators,whichareadaptedfromorganisationalbehaviourtheory[43]andsocialnetworks[44]arecollaboration,structuring,learningandleadership.Collaborationreferstothedegreeofconnectivityofallrelevantstakeholdersandtheircapacitytoparticipateingovernanceprocesses.Sociallearningdimensionsandgovernanceofintegratedriverbasinmanagementstresstheimportanceofaparticipatoryapproachforinclusionofmajorstakeholders[15,18,19,45,46,47].Collaborativegovernancehasbeenproposedaswayforwardtoachievethisaim[6,7],consistingofconsensusbuilding[48]andintegrativelearning[14].Strength,Formalisation,ClarityofrolesandTransparencyareattributesofthisindicator.StructuringreferstotheinstitutionaldesignoftheRBOandstakeholdergroups,notingthatbothformalandinformalstructuresdoexist.TheattributesModularityandSelf-organisingcapacityrefertoadeliberateattempttocreatesomeredundancyinthegovernancestructure,toensureflexibilityintimesofrapidchange[41].AccountabilityandRepresentationareattributesofco-management[19],whichisimportanttomatchspatialscalesatthesocialandbiophysicallevel.Learningisdefinedasthoseprocessesthatimproveknowledgeformanagementofinstitutionalandbiophysicalcapacity;theyincludeprocessescapturedintheattributesAdaptivemanagement,Triplelooplearning,Generateandsharedata&information,andEvaluation.Leadershipisdirectlyrelatedtodecision-makingandthecapacitytosteergovernanceintheintendeddirection,andincludesattributesofAuthority,Regulatorypower,Legalmechanisms,andEconomicincentives.Thebasinbiophysicalcapacityrepresentswateranditsecosystemservicesdeliverednaturallyorthroughhumanactions.Thebiophysicalsystemconsistsofthreenestedspatial

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scales:localorreach(micro),catchment(meso)andbasin(macro)scale.Thehierarchyframework[14]emphasisesthathigherspatiallevelsconstrainlowerlevels,butareinfluencedbyemergingpropertiesfromlowerlevels.Thegenericbiophysicalindicatorsaredefinedbasedonecosystemstructure,functionandservices[4,34,36,37,38,49]aswaterflows,speciesdiversity,speciesrecruitment,andmaterialcycling.Waterflowsreferstolongitudinal,lateralandverticalhydraulicsandhydrology,andincludetheattributesHydrologicalconnectivity,Provisioningofhabitat,Waterdiversions/allocations,andFlowregimechange.Speciesdiversityreferstothenaturalrichnessoffreshwaterecosystems,includingattributesforBiodiversity,Ecosystemservices1,Exoticinvasions(exertinganegativeinfluence)andRarespecies/ecosystems(biodiversityhotspotsdeservingspecialprotection).Speciesrecruitmentdiffersfromdiversityinensuringcontinuitythroughrecruitmentanddispersal(genepoolmixing).TheattributesarePathwaysandadequateflows(requirements),hydraulicregime(requirements),Dispersalmechanisms,andInvasivespecies(extent).Materialcyclingrelatestothephysicalprocessesthatenableandconstrainecology,definedhereasconsistingofattributesErosionanddeposition,Nutrientcycling,Carboncycling,andWaterquality.Thereisacertainsimilaritybetweenindicatorsinbothdomains,basedoninherentpropertiesofacomplexsystem.Waterflowshasaparallelincollaboration;connectivityanddistributioniskey.Speciesdiversityandstructuringbothrefertoassemblageofelementsofthesystem(speciesandstakeholdersrespectively).Recruitmentandlearningarebothaboutrenewalandcontinuationofthesystem.Leadershipandmaterialcyclingareatonceboundariesanddrivingforcestostimulatedirectionandprogressineitherasocialoraphysicaldomain.Whenundertakingadiagnosiswiththisproposedframework,severalstepsshouldbetaken,throughconsultationwithscientists,policymakersandkeystakeholders(Figure2):a)Defineandinterpretcontextspecificsocialinstitutionalattributesundertheindicatorclassescollaboration,learning,structuringandleadership,andbiophysicalattributesundertheindicatorclasseswaterflows,materialcycling,speciesdiversityandrecruitment.Thisneedstobedoneatnestedspatialscales(macro,mesoandlocalscales)inahierarchicalstructure.Theextenttowhichthecapacityofthebiophysicalsystemcanbedeterminedwilldependonhowwelltheattributescanbedescribed,mapped,catalogued,classifiedandquantified.Thenumberofattributescanbeextendedorexpandedintomultiplehierarchies,dependingonthespecificsofthegovernancemodel,andcanincludeecosystemservicesthatwaterusersarerelyingonforsocialandeconomicpurposes(includinglivelihoods).b)Determineacapacityscoreforeachoftheeightindicators,usingratingsonaLikertscale,asprovidedinTable1below.Amorecomprehensiverubricdescribingthespecificcategoriesforeachkeyindicatorcanbedeveloped.Capacityisthecurrentstateor

1Ecosystemservicesandbiodiversityareconceptuallydebated.Somescholarsdefinebiodiversityasthecapitalgeneratingecosystemservices,othersconsiderbiodiversityaserviceinitsownright[34].Initsbroadestdefinition,itincludessupporting,regulating,provisioningandculturalservices[4],capturedinallfourindicators.Asanattribute,wereferheretothoseservicesderivedfromplantandanimalspeciesthatprovideabenefitforhumans.

Formatted: Font:12 pt

Deleted: Table1

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conditionthatexistsforeachoftheindicators.Anevidencebasedapproachusingmultiplelinesofevidencetodeterminebiophysicalconditionwillbeakeyelementoftheprocess[37].Connecttheindicatorscorestoobtainaprofile(bluediagonalsinFigure2).Table1:criteriaforscoringtheindicatorsfortheproposeddiagnosticframework

Category Score Social-institutional Biophysical

VeryPoor 1 functionsarefragmentedornon-existent,requiringmajorlong-termefforttoestablishworkinggovernance

currentconditionisseverelydegradedandcapacityforperformanceimprovementhighlyunlikely

Poor 2 Someaspects/componentsofsocial-institutionalframeworkarefunctioning,buttherearemajorgapsorconstraintsthatimpedethefourfunctions.

partsofthebasinareinmoderateconditionwithpotentialforrecovery,butimpairedconnectivitymakessystemscalerestorationverychallenginganduncertainduetosignificantinvestmentrequirements

Moderate 3 Allfourkeyfunctionsareexisting,butsignificantshortcomingshavebeenidentifiedthatneedtobeaddressed

WaterandESaredegraded,butthekeyecosystemfunctionsareoperational.Longterminvestmentsarepossibleandrecoverypotentialisrealistic

Good 4 Engagementisworkingwellandbasedontrust,acommonvisionexists.Someissuesaroundregulationandaccountabilityneedimproving

Someaspectsofthesystemarecompromised;environmentisawellrecogniseduserofthesystemwithabilitytodeliverwaterandESonasustainablebasis.

VeryGood

5 Governanceisinclusive,transparent,non-controversialandstrongcollaborationexiststoimplementmanagementstrategies

Pristineornearpristineriversystem,withlittletonomodificationsforhumanuse.Veryrare,exceptinisolatedpockets.Usefultodeterminereferencecondition.

c)Determineameasureofperformancescoreforeachoftheeightsystemindicatorstoindicateanaspirationaltarget,basedontheprioritymanagementandgovernanceissuestobeaddressedaspartofthecoresustainablemanagementobjectives,usingthesamescoringscale(orangediagonalsinFigure2).d)Prioritizemanagementeffort,basedoncomparingtherelativedistancesobservedinthecapacityprofilesbetweencurrentcapacityandtargetscores.Thisprioritisationisusedforsettingmediumtolong-termobjectives.Itisimportanttoarriveataconsensusviewwhichmaybeopenended,meaningthatthereisagreementtoworkonthecommonlyagreedindicatorsfirstwithoutclosingoffoptionstoconsiderother,perhapsmorecontentiousonesatafuturepointintimeaspartoftheadaptivelearningcycle.Intheexamplebelow,learningscoresforcurrentandtargetareconverging,asisthecaseforspeciesrecruitment.Incontrast,leadershipandstructuringshowalargedistancebetweencurrentandtarget,

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suggestingthatthisrequiresprioritisation.Inthebiophysicalprofile,speciesdiversityshowsthelargestdistance,followedbywaterflows.Theseindicatorsneedtobeprioritised.

Figure2:IllustrativeexampleofhowtheproposedframeworkisusedtoassessthegovernanceperformanceofRBOs.Capacityprofilesforsocialinstitutionalcapacity(left)andbasinbiophysicalcapacity(right),withbluediagonalsindicatingcurrentstatusofcapacityandorangediagonalsindicatingobjectives.

e)Trajectoryanalysiscanbedoneintwoways.Firstly,ahistoricalanalysiscanbeundertakentotracktheratioofsocio-institutionalcapacityversusbiophysicalcapacityovertime.Generally,thisanalysisevolvesaroundmajorreformdecisionpointsandscoresareallocatedbasedonexpertadviceandqualitativepublishedandgreyliterature.Itisdoneinadditiontothediagnosticprofile(Figure2),toobtainamorecomprehensivebaselinebyvalidatingandexplainingtheprofilescores.Anexampleofsuchtrajectoryisprovidedinthenextsection(Figure3).Secondly,asatoolforfuturetrackingoftrajectorytowardstargetscores,throughregularevaluations,usingthefirst(baseline)andsuccessivediagnosticprofilesandgraphedsimilartothehistoricaltrajectorycurve.Thescoringaggregationprocessshouldusethepriorityweightingsderivedfromthediagnosticprofile,toaccountforobservedandexpectedchangesresultingfromfeedbackloopsinsuccessiveevaluations.Rubricswhichdescribeeachofthescoresareanimportantpartofstandardisingtheprocedureovertime.

Atrajectoryexample:theMurray-DarlingBasin,Australia.TheMurray-DarlingBasinisasignificantbasininAustralia,madeupofthecatchmentareasoftheMurrayandDarlingRiversandtheirmanytributaries,spanning1millionkm2,andcomprisingfivestateterritories,eachofwhichareresponsibleforwaterallocation,planningandimplementationunderAustralia’sfederalsystemofgovernment.

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Figure3:developmenttrajectoryoftheMurray-DarlingBasinPlan,sincepre-developmentin2010until2017(firstfiveyearsofBasinPlanimplementation).Fullimplementationisexpectedin2024,whenallstatewatermanagementplansshouldalignwiththebasin-widewaterrecoveryandenvironmentalwateringstrategy;thetrajectorylinefrom2018onwardsispredictive.

ThegovernancestructureoftheMurray-DarlingBasinAuthoritycarriesalegacyofitspredecessortheMurray-DarlingBasinCommissionandishenceacombinationofhierarchicalandcollaborativedecision-making;itssuccessesareunclearintermsofachievingenvironmentalwatering(biophysical)orstakeholderengagement(institutional)andtheirco-evolutionarydynamics;thisresultsinparalleleffortsonbothfrontsthatarepoorlyintegratedandoftenconfusekeystakeholdersduetothelackofaclearnarrative.Figure3depictsaplausibletrajectoryanalysisoftheMurrayDarlingBasinsincetheconceptionoftheMurray-DarlingBasinPlan,legislatedin2012[51]underfederalpowersinstigatedbytheWaterAct(2007)[52].Intheleaduptoit,theGuidefortheBasinPlan(2010)[53]waspreparedasahighleveltechnicaldocumentpriortoreleasetothebasinstakeholders(pre-developmentphase).Thescoringwasbasedonexpertinterpretationofhistoricalevents.Atpredevelopmentstage,thereleaseofahighlytechnicalguidetothebasinplangeneratedanegativesocial-institutionalresponse(manyruralcommunitiesfelttheywerenotproperlyconsulted):theallocatedscorewas1.5forinstitutionaland1forbiophysicalcapacity).Aninitialdecreaseininstitutionalcapacityresultedinarequiredkeysystemchange,characterisedbyamoreconsultativeapproachtolegislatetheBasinPlan.AtthesigningoftheBasinPlansocial-institutionalcapacitywasperceivedtobeatanall-timelow(score=1)butthebreakingofthedroughtimprovesbiophysicalcapacity,illustratingthatsystemchangescanoccurindependentofmanagementobjectives(score=2).Thiswasfollowedbyalongperiodofgainingcredibility(sociallearningphase),whichcoincidedwiththeimplementationoftheBasinPlanasagreedbythestatejurisdictions,resultinginaninstitutionalscoreof2.5andabiophysicalscoreof3atthe2017interimevaluationoftheBasinPlan.Thekeydiscourseevolvesaroundtherecoveryofenvironmentalwaterand

1

3

4

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Sociallearningphase:acceptanceoftheBasinPlan(2012)

ImplementationoftheBasinPlan:firstfiveyears(2017)

ComplianceandconsolidationofBasinPlan

FullimplementationofBasinPlan(2024)

?

0 1 2 3 4 5

Biophysicalcapacity

Institu

tionalcapacity

2 Pre-development:GuidetotheBasinPlan(2010)

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efficientuseofenvironmentalflowstoobtainenvironmentalbenefits,includingupstream/downstreamdependencies.TheBasin-wideWateringStrategysetsoutquantifiedecologicalobjectivestobeobtainedtomaintainandimprovetheconditionofvegetation,fishandbirdsinagiventimeframe.Statewateringplansareintegratedintothisstrategy,andenvironmentalflowdeliveryisevaluatedonyearlyandfive-yearlycycles,forwhichatrajectoryanalysiscouldbeused.Thefirstfive-yearlyevaluationnowcoincideswithissuesoflackofcompliance,adequateregulationofwaterallocations,andlackofprogresswithStatewaterresourceplansby2019,resultinginadecreaseagainofsocial-institutionalcapacity(score=2).TheseissueswillneedtoberesolvedtorestorecommunityconfidenceintheeffectivenessoftheBasinPlan,andtoreverttoanupwardtrajectory(expectedpredictivesocio-institutionalscoreof3.5,biophysicalscoreof5).DiscussionandconclusionsInthispaper,weproposeadiagnosticfunctionalframeworkthataddressesthecomplexityofdefiningandattributingmeasuresofperformanceinariverbasin(Figure1).ThistoolisdesignedforRBOstousetomaintainasteeringcourseandcorrectforbiophysicalandinstitutionalresponsestomanagementstrategies.Figure2visualisesindicatorprofilesforgovernanceandbiophysicaloutcomes,andFigure3atrajectorygraphwhichaggregatescapacityinbothdomainsovertime.Ourapproachrecognisessomeinherentcompetitivetensionsbetweenfunctionalindicators,suchasbetweenleadershipandcollaboration,whichsubsequentlyrequirebalanceandcalibration.Sometimes,therewillbeaneedforadaptabilityandflexibility,requiringdisruptionofexistingpractices,whenthesystemisinanexploratoryphaseorreadjustmentofgovernancestructureorpolicydirectionoccurs[40**,41].InFigure3,thiscoincideswiththetrajectorychangeduringthesociallearningphaseandthecomplianceandconsolidationphase.Atothertimesstability,clarityandefficiencyrequirelong-termmanagementplansbasedonquantitativemodellingandvalidation.Ratherthanbeingrigid,theproposedframeworkisdynamicandallowsrevisitinginitialplanningandmodelling,actsasacompasstokeepsteeringgovernanceandsustainablemanagementtoitsintendedcourse,adaptingeffortbasedonbothbiophysicalandsocio-economicfeedbackloops.Thisisinformedbyregularevaluations,theinitialdiagnostics,andthehistoricaltrajectoryuptothatpoint.Insummary,theproposedframeworkhasthefollowingpotentialadvantages:

1. Itdistinguishesbetweenthosegovernanceandmanagementissuesoverwhichithascontrolincontrastwiththosethatarepartofitscontextandexternaldrivers,thusmakingexplicitthefunction,roleandresponsibilityoftheRBOinacontextspecificsetting.

2. Thefoursocial-institutionalindicatorsandthefourbiophysicalindicatorscanbeusedtodefinecapacityandmeasuresofperformanceofaRBO.Makingindicatorsrelevantisdonethroughtheuseofsub-indicatorsthataretailoredtothebasincontextbyagreementbetweenstakeholders.

3. Thedistancebetweencapacityandmeasureofperformanceinthediagnosticsprofileallowsfortheprioritisationofmanagementstrategies,andtotrackprogressthroughregularevaluations.Progresscanbemappedastrajectoryanalyses,illustratedfortheMurray-DarlingBasinAuthority.

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4. Themethodaccommodatesthecombinationofdifferentsourcesofdataandevidence,usedinthecategoricalscoring.Bothqualitativeandquantitativeinformationcanbeused,inasimple5scalescoringsystem.

ThediagnosticframeworkrepresentsthefirstattempttostrengthenthepositionandeffectivenessofanRBOindealingwithcomplexbasinsystems.Thenextstepwillbetotesttheframeworkinanumberofcasestudiesaroundtheworldtoascertainitsvalidity.Socialnetworkanalysis[44,54],organisationalbehaviouranalysis[42],systemsthinking[25]andprogramtheory[55]willbeexploredtounderstandtheunderlyingdynamicsanddevelopmethodsforimplementingandusingtheframework,incollaborationwithdecisionmakers,riverbasinorganisationstaffandrelevantstakeholders.Acknowledgements:ThisresearchispartlysupportedbyanARCFutureFellowshipproject(FT130100247).ItisalsomadepossiblebyanAPAScholarshipandGlobalChangeScholarshipawardedtotheprincipalauthorofthepaper.

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