Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

Trends in European PPPs in the Transport Sector

The road to 2020

Panel Discussion

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

European PPP Market

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Number of deals

Value in Billion Euro

Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04The Market, 2010, EIBThe Market, 2011, EIB

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

UKAll Others

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

UKAll Others

European Transport PPP Market

Share of Number of Transport deals

Share of Value of Transport PPPs

Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

European Transport PPP Market

Number of PPP deals

Value of PPPs

Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

Country % No % ValueMotorway Density 10-2

Motorway Increase (2008 - 1990)

AT 0.2 0.5 2.02 17%

BE 0.9 1.3 5.78 6%

BG 0.1 0.1 0.38 53%

CY 0.2 0.3 2.78 114%

CZ 0.2 0.3 0.88 94%

DE 4.9 4.1 3.54 17%

DK 0.1 0 2.62 85%

EL 1 5.5 0.84 489%

ES 10.1 11.4 2.67 172%

FI 0.1 0.2 0.22 228%

FR 5.4 5.3 2.02 62%

HU 0.7 2.3 1.37 377%

IE 1.3 1.6 0.60 1527%

IT 2.4 3.3 2.20 7%

LV 0.1 0 0.00 0%

NL 1.2 1.8 6.35 26%

PL 0.4 1.7 0.24 198%

PT 3.1 7 2.84 730%

RO 0.1 0 0.32 149%

SE 0.1 0.2 0.41 98%

SK 0.1 0.5 0.79 100%

SI 0.1 0 3.43 205%

UK 67.1 52.5 1.45 12%

  100 100 1.63  

TL 1340

253.74 Billion Euro    Ref.

EU Transport in figures, 2011

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

Needs in infrastructure were a motive for PPPs in transport. How great are these needs today?

Will PPPs continue to be an important financing method for the transport sector?

Will the road sector continue to dominate? How does the economic crisis impact travel

behaviour?

Question

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

European Transport PPP Market

Number of PPP deals

Value of PPPs

Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04The Market, 2010, EIBThe Market, 2011, EIB

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

20

40

60

80

100

120

Transport SectorAll Other Sectors

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Transport SectorAll Other Sectors

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

There seems to be a concentration on a smaller number of transport projects with greater budgets. This is in contrast to what is seen in other sectors. Do you find this justifiable given the current global

economic situation? What is the estimated impact on market

competition? Are PPP’s impacted on by private contributors

being more and more large, international groups?

Question

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

European Transport PPP Market

Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04

Road PPPs

Number of deals with respectto re-payment method

Open Day, 22 March 2012 PPP in Transport: Trends & Theory

There is a tendency to protect against traffic risk expressed with the avoidance of real tolls. Which other methods of “protection” do you see? Which transport sub-sectors require greater

“protection”? Is the public sector capable of providing viable

solutions to this problem? What are the limits to PPPs: what outsourced

control goes in hand with what public risk uptake? What happens with projects already “locked in”?

Question