OOPC to WOAP-II

D. E. HarrisonOcean Observations Panel for

Climate

(WCRP, GOOS, GCOS)

Ocean Observations Panel for Climate - Terms of Reference

• Develop recommendations for a sustained global ocean observing system, in support of WCRP, GOOS and GCOS climate objectives, including phased implementation.

• Help develop a process for ongoing evaluation and evolution of system and recommendations.

• Support global ocean observing activities by involved parties, via liaison and advocacy for agreed observing plans

Outline• Status of global ocean OS• Some ocean sampling issues/results• Documents/Reviews• Some continuing big issues• Some new activities/issues• Some relevant workshops/meetings since

WOAP-I• Some workshops/meetings in prospect• WOAP issues to be taken up

Status of Ocean O.S. - 1

• Agreed need (5/06) for enhanced Observing Program Support (OPS)

• Argo ~2500/3000. Most national efforts to be re- competed. O2 & other sensors?

• Surface Drifters ~1250. ‘hourly’ SST coming. Improve global distribution.

• Tide gauge progress. Tsunami warning• OceanSites progress, but most

transport efforts to be re-competed

GTS

Surface Data Buoys

FEB 2004

FEB 2005

JUL 2006

Gold – SST

Blue – SST & SLP

Dot - mooring

GTS Temperature Profiles:

FEB 2004

FEB 2005

JUL 2006

Status of Ocean O.S. - 2

• Tropical Mooring expansion in Atlantic and Indian

• Improving attitudes toward Real Time data sharing & cruise info sharing

• Ocean Carbon progress, pCO2 & sections, but plans needs revision

• Continuing VOS issues

• Repeat line Ship of Opportunity issues

• Uncertainty about satellite continuity

79 91 106 126 148 170

807 671 779 787 975 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250

77 77 79 79 83 86 91 97 104 115 119

26 26 27 39 40 49 51 51 51

923 1572 2300 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

41 42 49 54 60 78 89

9 15 17 20 23 28 31

3030 3434 4040 4545 4848 5555 6060 6666 7777 8888 9999

51 56 67 67 69

23 24

20 31 544

15 29 35 37

0 0 1 4

60 108 112 150 180 200 200 200 2000 0

Tide Gauge Stations

Surface Drifting Buoys

Tropical Moored Buoys

VOS Clim Ships

Argo Floats

Reference Stations

Ocean Carbon Network

Ships of Opportunity

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010

Multi-year Phased Implementation Plan (International)(representative milestones)

Real-time Stations,Initial GCOS Subset

High resolution & frequentlyrepeated lines occupied

Number of floats

Number of moorings

Number of buoys

Repeat Sections Completed,One inventory per 10 years

System % Complete

Observatories, flux, andocean transport stations

Number of shipsrecruited

Total System

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010

JCOMM-I JCOMM-II

Initial Ocean Observing System Milestones

If funded as requested

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Original target: $141 M by 2010

Maximum executableramp = $17 M/yr

System% complete

Year

$ Million

[NOAA Contribution]

Funding History

Some Ocean Sampling Issues

• Complex patterns of interannual to decadal subsurface variability

• How representative is satellite era?• MBT/XBT/Argo transition effects in

historical data set• Sparseness, particularly of So. Hem.

and Indian historical obs, limits ‘World Ocean’ inferences and reconstructions

• Importance of sub-750m (and sub-Argo depth) ocean heat content?

20 year T trends at 100m

95% of all 95% of all boxes change boxes change sign at least sign at least once over the once over the 45-year period45-year period

Harrison & Carson Harrison & Carson 2006 (JPO to 2006 (JPO to appear)appear)

1955-19741955-1974 1960-19791960-1979

1965-19841965-1984

1975-19941975-1994

1970-19891970-1989

1980-19991980-1999

Hansen, Turrell and Osterhus (2001), updated by Hansen et al. (2004)

No trend – but the time series is only one decade

Faroe-Bank Channel overflowFaroe-Bank Channel overflow

Science paper was written

Documents/Reviews

• GCOS IP Supplement on Satellite Reqs.• GCOS revised national ‘reporting

requirements’ on sustained observations for UNFCCC

• GCOS IP in GEO Work Plan• GODAE Summer School book on ODA• CEOS response to GCOS IP• IGOS-P Ocean Theme review/revision • PIRATA review • Various program and regional plans

GODAE Summer School Book

• Ocean Weather Forecasting

An Integrated View of OceanographyChassignet, Eric P.; Verron, Jacques (Eds.) Springer. 2006, XII, 578 p., Hardcover. USD189.

ISBN: 1-4020-3981-6

Some Continuing Big Issues

• Limited progress in national actions to establish & support sustained ocean observing institutions/activities

• Research funds still essential• System support is limited and fragile• Limited financial support for JCOMM

Secretariat & new activities• What follows GODAE? In WGNE?• Limited progress agreeing ‘climate

quality’ QC procedures

New Programmatic Items

• OOPC indices website:

http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/state_of_the_ocean/• Ocean real time SST metadata group formed• AOPC/OOPC SST/Sea Ice group-new leaders• Sea Ice comparison group formed• Tsunameter group to be proposed to JCOMM• Increased action on non-physical variables in

OOPC and JCOMM

Sites where Tsunami and Climate plans overlap -- potential for coordinationSites where Climate missions already deploy tsunami buoys routinely

Integrating Climate & Tsunami Buoy Ship SupportIntegrating Climate & Tsunami Buoy Ship Support

Chilean Tsunami Buoy being deployedduring a U.S. Climate mission

Workshops/Mtgs since WOAP-1

• GHRSST (several)• JCOMM-II Sep 05• Marine Data Nov 05• GODAE IGST Nov 05• Ocean Carbon/Hydro repeat survey Nov 05• Argo Science Mar 06• SST real time metadata Mar 06• OOPC May 06• Interdisciplinary Sea Level Workshop Jun 06• Ocean Carbon/.Hydro Atlantic Jun 06• 50 years of “Line P” Jul 06

Workshops/Meetings Ahead

• Ocean Reanalysis Metrics Aug 06

• Sea Ice Sep 06

• GODAE East Asia workshop in Oct 06

• SCOR ocean program coordination meeting #2 in Dec 06

• Non-physical variable sensor workshop being planned for 07

• OceanObs2008 conference being contemplated

Issues for WOAP, #1

• Research community support/pressure to nations to set up sustained ocean observing activities/institutions and budgets?

• In interim, have to maintain via research programs, including CLIVAR.

• Must include advocacy for system management infrastructure; “OPS center”

(recall OPS=Observing Program Support)• Continue to support real time data sharing• Evaluation/Evolution of present plans

Issues for WOAP, #2

• Advocacy for improvement of historical ocean data base and analyses, with emphasis on QC, reconstruction & gridding techniques and uncertainty estimates as well as data archeology.

• Workshop on uncertainty estimation in reconstructed fields? (not just ocean?) Decadal variability consequences?

• Continue to foster development and use of indicators/indices. Going slowly at present.

• When should ocean forecasting and ocean reanalysis become coupled ocean-atmos?

• WCRP and non-physical variable recommendations?