One Year from the Election…. mori summary 2014.pdfMay 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May ... Base: representative

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One Year from the Election….

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI benatipsosmori


8%

10%

13%

14%

11%

14%

15%

24%

31%

33%

47%

Defence/Foreign

Housing

Poverty/Inequality

Inflation/Prices

Pensions/Benefits

Education/Schools

Crime/Law & order

NHS/Hospitals

Unemployment

Race/Immigration

Economy/Economic situation

The Issues Agenda

Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?

Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013


9%

10%

10%

12%

12%

13%

14%

23%

30%

39%

45%

8%

10%

13%

14%

11%

14%

15%

24%

31%

33%

47%

Defence/Foreign

Housing

Poverty/Inequality

Inflation/Prices

Pensions/Benefits

Education/Schools

Crime/Law & order

NHS/Hospitals

Unemployment

Race/Immigration

Economy/Economic situation

In the marginals? Hello Nigel!

Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?

Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

All GB

Marginal seats


Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

But issues are shifting away from the economy….

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

Unemployment

NHS

Crime/

Law & Order

Economy

Race / immigration


Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Rising concern about inequality and our personal financial situation

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

Cameron becomes

PM

Prices/Inflation

Poverty/inequality

Low pay/fair wages One third (34%)

mention one of the

three issues


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ju

n-9

7S

ep

-97

De

c-9

7M

ar-

98

Ju

n-9

8S

ep

-98

De

c-9

8M

ar-

99

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

De

c-9

9M

ar-

00

Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

De

c-0

0M

ar-

01

Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

De

c-0

1M

ar-

02

Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

De

c-0

2M

ar-

03

Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

De

c-0

3M

ar-

04

Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

De

c-0

4M

ar-

05

Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

De

c-0

5M

ar-

06

Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

De

c-0

6M

ar-

07

Ju

n-0

7S

ep-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ar-

08

Ju

n-0

8S

ep-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Ju

n-0

9S

ep-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Ju

n-1

0S

ep-1

0D

ec-1

0M

ar-

11

Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

De

c-1

1M

ar-

12

Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

De

c-1

2M

ar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

De

c-1

3M

ar-

14

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-56 -48

+23

Economic Optimism reaches near-record levels

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

-64

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

+23


But few think it has benefited them

As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5% compared to the same time last

year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?


Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013

Don’t know

3%

11%

36%

48%

1%

A great deal

None at all

14%

84%


A better future no longer seems so certain

Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013

Q. “To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life

than your parents’ generation, or will it have been about the same?”

Source: Ipsos MORI

32%

29%

20%

14%

4% 1%

Much better

About the same

Much worse

Generations

Better

%

Worse

%

Generation Y 42 29

Generation X 60 19

Baby Boomers 70 14

Pre-War 79 8

Slightly better

Slightly worse

61%

18%

Don’t know


As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt.

To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? And how concerned, if at all,

are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?

Tipping point? Much more worried about cuts to come

than cuts so far

9

23

39

27

21

37

29

12

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

A greatdeal/Veryconcerned

A fairamount/

Fairlyconcerned

Not verymuch/

concerned

Not at all

Affected so far Concerned about effects in next 12 months


Base: : 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013


Public’s top investment for growth

Base: 1,442 GB adults 15+, Sep-Oct 2012

40%

20%

14%

8%

5%

4%

5%

3%

Improve road infrastructure

Improve rail infrastructure

Improve/extend high speed b/band

Increase air capacity

Build a new high speed rail line

None of these

Don't know

Q. The Government is trying to boost the economy and is considering major

infrastructure investment. Which one of these, if any, do you think is the best way of

boosting the economy?

Source: Ipsos MORI for HS2 Action Alliance

Build more homes


Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that there is a housing crisis in Britain?

Strongly agree

36%

15%

44%

Tend to disagree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

18% 80%

3%

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12-14 January 2013 Source: Evening Standard/Ipsos MORI

8 in 10 Brits agree is a housing crisis

3%


Disagree “there is

enough affordable

housing available to buy

or rent in my local area”

Agree “more new homes

need to be built in my

local area”

Source: Evening Standard/Ipsos MORI Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12-14 January 2013

36%

Public not always consistent


But what can Government do anyway?

Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013

Q. “How confident, if at all, are you that the current government has the right policies to

deal with the problems facing the housing market?”

Source: Ipsos MORI/JRRT

1%

19%

42%

32%

6%

Very confident

Not at all confident

Tenure

Confident

%

Not confident

%

Owners 23 69

Mortgage 18 78

Social

renters

18 80

Private

renters

19 76 Not very confident

20%

74%

Fairly confident

Don’t know


The political state of

play


Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour’s lead in decline….

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-1

0

Aug

-10

Oct-1

0

Dec-1

0

Feb-1

1

Apr-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Aug

-11

Oct-1

1

Dec-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Apr-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Aug

-12

Oct-1

2

Dec-1

2

Feb-1

3

Apr-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Aug

-13

Oct-1

3

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

37%

13%

31%

11%

June-Dec 2010:

Avg. -1.5pt Lab lead

Jan ’11-Mar ‘12:

Avg. 4pt Lab lead

April ’12-April’13:

Avg. 10pt Lab lead

May ‘13 – Mar ‘14:

Avg. 6 pt Lab lead


Some challenges

for the

Conservatives


Challenges facing the Conservatives - 1) “biased” system

In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority

of 64 seats

In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats

short of a majority

If the Conservatives and Labour each had 33.4% of the vote,

Labour would win 307 seats and the Conservatives would win

254 seats

Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of 2.8 percentage

points, the Conservatives need an 11.1 point lead

AND

Only two governments since 1900 have increased their vote

share after more than two years in office (1951 and 1955)


40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Conservative advantage in turnout going away

% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”



Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

2. The rise of UKIP

Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted

Conservative in 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ja

n-1

2

Feb-1

2

Ma

r-12

Apr-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Feb-1

4

Labour

Liberal Democrat

UKIP


Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Among 2010 Conservative voters who are switching – where to?

Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted

Conservative in 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ja

n-1

2

Feb-1

2

Ma

r-12

Apr-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Feb-1

4

Labour

Liberal Democrat

UKIP

%


3. The Conservatives are still the most disliked party

Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United

Kingdom Independence party?

% dislike party


Especially among younger women


“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*

*All certain to vote

31 30 31

24 25

33

39 36

33

48 48

36

10 9 9 9 11 11

6

14

19

4 7

13

18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+

Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP

Men Women

Base 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013


And anywhere outside the South

37%

28%

12%

15%

8%


The north is very red

26%

47%

8%

12% 7%


Three challenges

for Labour


1) Incumbency for new governments

Opposition parties rarely elected with an overall

majority after single parliament out of office

Only 1895,1924, 1931

Successive hung Parliaments – only once

(1910) since 1832


Government lead in the polls – one year out

2015

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

One year out

In 6 out of 9 elections since the

War when one party had a

narrow poll lead one year out,

THE OTHER PARTY WON


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

2. Credibility. Ed’s approval ratings are low

MILIBAND (2010-2014)


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

Like Hague and IDS low….

HAGUE (1997-2001)

DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)


And the Conservatives hold the mantle of economic

credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

Dec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

Dec-0

0M

ar-0

1Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

Dec-0

2M

ar-0

3Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

Dec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

Dec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

Dec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-1

4


And the Conservatives hold the mantle of economic

credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

2 2 0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

Dec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

Dec-0

0M

ar-0

1Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

Dec-0

2M

ar-0

3Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

Dec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

Dec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

Dec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-1

4


Labour picking up many LibDems – but not so many

Tory switchers

Base: 2,354 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – Dec 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

2013 Labour vote

2010 Labour

2010 LibDem

2010 Con

2010 Other

2010 DNV/too young/etc


Finally, although Ed Miliband won the battle of the conference

policies, after the Budget, who will win the war?

Which party, if any, do you trust most to…


Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013

36%

23%

28%

24%

31%

27%

4%

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

Grow the economy

Reduce you and your family’s cost of

living

Ensure that you and your family benefits from a

growing economy

Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats


Wild card

Independence referendum

35

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All (1,001); all certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

Yes 29%

No 55%

Undecided 16%

All voters

Yes 32%

No 57%

Undecided 11%

Certain to vote

36


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here

45% Scots who…

may not vote (22%)

will vote but are undecided (9%)

will vote but may change their vote (14%)

37


Paste co-

brand logo

here Long-term trend yes

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013


What’s happening in

the charity sector?


Thinking back over the past 3 years would you say in general your views

towards charities have become...

What’s happening in the charity sector….

Base: All GB Adults (1035) Fieldwork 11-14th Jan 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/NPC

14%

17%

42%

14%

9% 2%

Don’t know

A lot more positive

A little more positive

Neither/nor

A little more negative

A lot more negative


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

“On a scale of 0-10 how much trust and confidence do you have in charities?”

“ I am going to read out some different types of people. For each, please tell me

whether you trust the to tell the truth or not.”

Trust is not in crisis…

Base: 1,000 British adults 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doctors

Clergymen/priests

Charities

Politicians generally

Journalists


Overall, how important a role do you think charities play in society today?

Increasingly essential to our society…

Base: Adults aged 18+ in England and Wales – 2012 (1,142); 2010 (1,150); 2008 (1,008) and 2003 (1,001) Source: Ipsos MOR/Charity Commission

* Option changed to ‘essential’ for 2008 and 2010 from ‘extremely important’ in 2005

+ Option changed to ‘fairly important’ for 2008 and 2010 from ‘quite important’ in 2005

29

32

30

37

34

40

37

39

32

24

29

20

3

3

3

2

1

0.5

*

1

1

1

2005

2008

2010

2012

% Essential* % Very important % Fairly important+

% Not very important % Not at all important % Don't know


Which, if any, of the following, do you think are the main things that charities

are doing wrong? (top 9)

What do charities get wrong?


42%

36%

29%

29%

26%

23%

15%

14%

11%

Spend too much money on executive salaries

Not transparent about spending

Spend too much money abroad

Too much pressure on people to donate

Too much money on running costs

Delivering public services that state should

Behave like a profit-making business

You never see the benefits of your donation

Too much money on employee salaries

Those who are

more negative

about charities in

last 3 years…

Spend too much money on executive salaries

Not transparent about spending

Spend too much money abroad

Too much pressure on people to donate

Too much money on running costs

Delivering public services that state should

Behave like a profit-making business

You never see the benefits of your donation

Too much money on employee salaries

49%

36%


2%

5% 7%

28%

42%

16%

More than an MP on

£66,00 per year

The same as an MP on

£66,00 per year

Less than an MP on

£66,000 per year

I don’t think the chief executive

should be paid at all

I don’t have a strong view on

what charity CEOs are paid

Don’t know

Which of the following best describes how much you believe that the chief

executive of a charity should be paid?

Should charity CEOs be paid more or less than MPs?


52% of higher social

grades say charity

CEOs should be paid

same/more


Why do you trust [charity] less than others?

Lack of information on spend top reason for lack of

trust for decade…

Base: Respondents mentioning a charity/charity type – 2012 (62); 2010 (409); 2008 (419); 2005 (214) Source: Ipsos MOR/Charity Commission

Because I don’t know how they spend their money

Because I have heard bad stories about them

Because they are big

Money lost through corruption/open to abuse/ doesn’t get to end cause

Because they are international

6%

12%

16%

20%

31%

6%

12%

14%

21%

30%

5%

13%

9%

18%

35%

7%

11%

14%

21%

36%

Top five mentions only 2005 2008 2010 2012


Which one, if any, of these qualities is most important to your trust and confidence in

charities overall?

And reflects increasing concern about proportion

going to end cause?

Base: All respondents – 2012 (1,142), 2010 (1,150), 2008 (1,008), 2005 (1,001) Source: Ipsos MOR/Charity Commission

43%

31%

13%

9%

3%

1%

42%

31%

15%

8%

3%

3%

32%

35%

8%

5%

2%

30%

27%

11%

9%

1%

Ensure reasonable proportion of donations get to end cause

Make a positive difference to cause they work for

Ensure fundraisers are honest and ethical

Be well managed

Make independent decisions to further the cause

they work for

Don’t know

2005 2008 2010 2012


Which, if any, of the following, are roles that you think charities should perform in society? And

which of the below do you think that charities spend most of their time doing?

There are gaps between what charities should be doing vs. what

they are doing…

Source: Ipsos MORI/NPC

56

51

47

44

32

11

35

55

37

29

24

16

Helping communities

Raising money for good causes

Raising awareness of important issues in society

Encouraging people to volunteer

Lobbying government to change law or policy

Running a service that is currently run by the state

Should perform in society Spend most of their time doing

Base: All GB Adults (1035) Fieldwork 11-14th Jan 2014


In conclusion...

•Cost of living/recovery remains key…

•Public fearful about the future for services – highlighting shovel ready solutions important for government

•2015-16 settlement is THE problem….

•Scottish referendum – profound implications either way

•Election is highly uncertain – precedents point in different ways

•No sign of anti-politics feeling rubbing off on you but want to hear what you are doing (and spending)

•Good luck


Thank you [email protected] | +44 20 7347 3000

March 2014

© Ipsos MORI

Documents

One Year from the Election…. mori summary 2014.pdfMay 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May ... Base: representative