One Hundred and Thirtieth Progress Report to the

One Hundred and Thirtieth Progress Report

to the

International Joint Commission

by the

International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board

Covering the Period

1 March 2018 through 31 August 2018

18 September 2018

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Cover: Various photos showing some key issues during this reporting period (Low Lake St. Lawrence levels, Bob St. Denis, Long Sault, Ontario; Public meeting attendees in Long Sault, Ontario, Tony David; Gauging inspection (refurbished Morrisburg station), Christine Fisher)

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Executive Summary HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, OUTFLOWS AND LEVELS The end of February was marked by widespread rain and very mild temperatures, causing significant snowmelt and streamflow runoff at the start of the reporting period. Into March, outflows were set according to Plan 2014’s I limit, which prescribes the maximum outflows that can be released from Lake Ontario, while maintaining stable ice conditions and critical water levels on Lake St. Lawrence. Ice quickly melted from Lake St. Lawrence by 2 March but remained in place in the Beauharnois Canal until 15 March as conditions turned cooler for a couple of weeks. Adjusted rule curve releases were generally passed throughout March until the opening of the Seaway on 29 March. Plan 2014’s L limit was followed thereafter until 28 April. The L limit prescribes the maximum outflows that can be released from Lake Ontario, while maintaining safe navigation conditions in the St. Lawrence River. Mild and wet conditions in late April resulted in a rapid rise in Ottawa River flows and Lake Ontario levels. Starting 28 April, Plan 2014’s F limit was followed, which prescribes the maximum outflows that can be released from Lake Ontario while balancing flood and erosion risks on Lake St. Louis as well. The Ottawa River peak proved to be above average in 2018, but well below the record-breaking volumes experienced during the spring of 2017. Conditions from May onward proved relatively dry, and by 23 May, the Ottawa River flows had sufficiently subsided that the plan reverted to prescribing L-limit releases once again. Thereafter, the L-limit rules were generally followed until 28 July, except during two minor deviation events. On 3 June, important outflow reductions of up to 16 percent facilitated the successful refloating of the grounded tanker, Chem Norma, near Morrisburg, Ontario. From 17 to 24 June, outflows were reduced to facilitate the installation of a Hydro-Quebec safety boom, which required divers to work in strong currents. Hot, dry weather persisted for several weeks in the spring and early summer, interrupted only a few times with spotty rainfall and the odd cool night. Though precipitation and local basin supplies were generally low following a wet April, inflows from the upper Great Lakes remained above normal throughout the reporting period, and so the net total inflows to Lake Ontario remained above normal, even during drought conditions. In response to the above-average inflows, Lake Ontario outflows as prescribed by Plan 2014 remained above average throughout the reporting period. With river and lake levels well within their normal ranges, by 28 July, Plan 2014 maximum outflow limits no longer applied, and prescribed releases were generally in accordance with the adjusted rule curve of the plan. That is, releases were set based on Lake Ontario’s above-average but declining levels and in consideration that inflows over the past year remained well above normal. These high outflows twinned with declining Lake Ontario levels resulted in well-below-average levels on Lake St. Lawrence for several months from mid-May onward. Local residents and boaters contacted the Board with concerns about such low levels for the second straight year. The Board and Commission responded to multiple complaints during this period, and this proved to be the most challenging outreach effort since last year’s high-water period. On 4 August, scheduled hydropower maintenance resulted in a temporary flow reduction for seven hours overnight, resulting in a brief but marked uptick in Lake St. Lawrence levels.

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BOARD ACTIVITIES The Board met in person twice, along with International Joint Commission (IJC) staff, associated subcommittees, and advisory groups to assess conditions and to review regulatory operations, outreach efforts, feedback and adaptive management initiatives. The regulation representatives provided the Board with weekly information on conditions in the system, monthly reviews of hydrologic conditions and forecasts, as necessary. The Operations Advisory Group (OAG) continued its weekly teleconference to apprise the regulation representatives of operational requirements and constraints. COMMUNICATION ACTIVITIES During the reporting period, the Communications Committee, individual Board members, the secretaries and the regulation representatives were actively engaged in outreach, information exchange and liaison with stakeholders throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system. The Board made a concerted effort to continue to communicate following the 2017 high-water event with the release of a special report, and continues to enhance public communication through its website and Facebook pages. The Board is currently working with the IJC on a website modernization project. The Board website is expected to be migrated to the modernized platform by the end of the year.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Hydrological Conditions ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Lake Ontario Basin - Net Basin Supply .................................................................................................. 3 1.2. Precipitation ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Supply from Lake Erie ............................................................................................................................ 3 1.4. Lake Ontario – Net Total Supply ............................................................................................................ 3 1.5. Ottawa River Basin ................................................................................................................................ 4 2. Regulatory Operations ........................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Regulation Overview .............................................................................................................................. 4 2.2. Deviations from Regulation Plan 2014 ................................................................................................... 5 2.3. Water Levels throughout the System ..................................................................................................... 5 2.4. Iroquois Dam Operations ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.5. Long Sault Dam Operations ................................................................................................................... 7 2.6. Raisin River Diversion ............................................................................................................................ 7 2.7. St. Lawrence Seaway Report ................................................................................................................. 7 2.8. Hydropower Peaking and Ponding ......................................................................................................... 7 3. Board Activities ...................................................................................................................................... 7 3.1. Board Meetings & Conference Calls ...................................................................................................... 8 3.2. Board and Committee Membership Changes ........................................................................................ 8 3.3. Communications, Outreach and Engagement ....................................................................................... 8 3.4. Gauging Committee ............................................................................................................................... 9 4. Adaptive Management Committee ......................................................................................................... 9

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Provisional Monthly Mean Supplies to Lake Ontario

Table 2. Provisional Precipitation over the Great Lakes and Lake Ontario Basins

Table 3a. Summary of Weekly Flows, Operational Adjustments and Deviations

Table 3b. Summary of Flow Changes

Table 4. Lake Ontario Recorded and Preproject Levels and Outflows

Table 5. Attendance at Meetings LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Monthly Net Total Supplies to Lake Ontario

Figure 2. Daily Ottawa River Flow at Carillon

Figure 3. Lake Ontario Daily Outflows

Figure 4. Daily Lake Ontario Water Levels

Figure 5. Lake Ontario Actual, Preproject & Plan 2014 Levels

Figure 6. Daily Lake St. Lawrence Levels at Long Sault Dam

Figure 7. Daily Lake St. Louis Levels at Pointe-Claire

Figure 8. Daily Port of Montreal Levels at Jetty # 1

Figure 9. Daily Lake St. Peter Levels at Sorel Appendix A: Communications Committee Summary of Activities Appendix B: Communications Committee Membership Appendix C: Glossary, Abbreviations, and Background Information on ILO-SLRB website Appendix C, available on the Publications page of the Board’s website, provides the background information that had been included in the main body of these reports previously, allowing this report to focus on the issues and conditions of the reporting period.

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1. Hydrological Conditions The end of February was marked by widespread rain and very mild temperatures, causing significant snowmelt and streamflow runoff at the start of the reporting period. Ice quickly melted from Lake St. Lawrence by 2 March but remained in place in the Beauharnois Canal until 15 March as conditions turned cooler for a couple of weeks. Mild and wet conditions in late April resulted in a rapid rise in Ottawa River flows and Lake Ontario levels. The Ottawa River peak proved to be above average, but well below the record-breaking volumes experienced during the spring of 2017. Conditions from May onward proved relatively dry. Hot, dry weather persisted for several weeks in the spring and early summer, interrupted only a few times with spotty rainfall and the odd cool night. Though precipitation and local basin supplies were generally low following a wet April, inflows from the upper Great Lakes remained above normal throughout the reporting period, and so the net total inflows to Lake Ontario remained above normal, even during drought conditions. In response to the above-average inflows, outflows also remained above average throughout the reporting period. These high outflows twinned with declining Lake Ontario levels resulted in well-below-average levels on Lake St. Lawrence for several months from mid-May onward.

1.1. Lake Ontario Basin - Net Basin Supply The local net basin supplies (NBS) to Lake Ontario (see Appendix C for definition) were below average in March, June and July, above average in April and August, and near average in May. Monthly NBS values for March through August and the averages for the six-month period are provided in Table 1.

1.2. Precipitation

Monthly precipitation amounts for the Lake Ontario and Great Lakes basins, and the average for the six-month period are provided in Table 2. Precipitation over the Lake Ontario basin was above average in April and August, but below average otherwise. The monthly average precipitation from March through August over the Lake Ontario basin was 73 mm (2.9 in), which was below average and has been exceeded 62 percent of the time. The monthly average precipitation from March through August for the entire Great Lakes basin was 67 mm (2.6 in), which was also below average, having been exceeded 79 percent of the time.

1.3. Supply from Lake Erie Reflecting higher water levels in the upper lakes, the inflows to Lake Ontario from Lake Erie remained well above-average throughout the reporting period, as shown in Table 1. The six-month average outflow has been exceeded 4 percent of the time and was the 7th highest March-through-August average outflow since Lake Erie outflow records began in 1900.

1.4. Lake Ontario – Net Total Supply The monthly net total supplies (NTS) to Lake Ontario (see Appendix C for definition) are provided in Table 1 and shown graphically in Figure 1. The monthly net total supplies remained above average throughout the reporting period. Overall, the total supply was 115 percent of

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average during this reporting period, the 10th highest for the March-through-August period since reliable record keeping began in 1900, and exceeded 10 percent of the time. Figure 1 shows the long-term average monthly net total supplies for the period 1900 to 2017 and the supplies so far for 2018. Also shown, for comparison purposes, are the monthly NTS for 2016 and 2017. The horizontal bars above and below the curves on the graph are the long-term monthly NTS maxima and minima.

1.5. Ottawa River Basin Figure 2 shows the daily Ottawa River flows. Flows were above average in early March, following mild temperatures and rainfall near the end of February, but fell to very low values by the end of March as the weather turned cooler again. Ottawa River flows rose quickly starting in mid-April, peaking in early May above average but well below the record-highs of last May. Ottawa River flows generally declined quickly thereafter, reaching average values by late June and eventually falling to near-record-low values by late July following very hot, dry weather, before rising back above average by the end of July after several large rainfalls. 2. Regulatory Operations

2.1. Regulation Overview In order to be responsive to conditions and the needs of all interests in the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system, the Board continuously assessed conditions throughout the reporting period through numerous email exchanges along with the aid of regular monthly and weekly reports from the regulation representatives, and met twice during the past six months. Figure 3 shows the actual daily Lake Ontario outflows for the reporting period in comparison to the long-term average, preproject and weekly plan-specified outflows. Tables 3a and 3b show the flow changes including operational adjustments and deviations that occurred during the last half year. Operational adjustments are not required to be paid back by subsequent off-setting outflows. Most deviations require that subsequent off-setting outflows return the level of Lake Ontario to what it would have been if outflows had followed plan-prescribed flows all along. Into March, outflows were set according to Plan 2014’s I limit, which prescribes the maximum outflows that can be released from Lake Ontario, while maintaining stable ice conditions and critical water levels on Lake St. Lawrence. Ice quickly melted from Lake St. Lawrence by 2 March but remained in place in the Beauharnois Canal until 15 March as conditions turned cooler for a couple of weeks. Adjusted rule curve releases were generally passed throughout March until the opening of the Seaway on 29 March. Plan 2014’s L limit was followed thereafter until 28 April. The L limit prescribes the maximum outflows that can be released from Lake Ontario, while maintaining safe navigation conditions in the St. Lawrence River. The March monthly-mean outflow was the third highest since records began in 1900, and just 450 m3/s less than the record in 1998. Mild and wet conditions in late Aprilresulted in a rapid rise in Ottawa River flows and Lake Ontario levels. Starting 28 April, Plan 2014’s F limit was followed, which prescribes the maximum outflows that can be released from Lake Ontario while balancing flood and erosion risks on Lake St. Louis as well. The Ottawa River peak proved to be above average in 2018, but well below the record-breaking volumes during the spring of 2017. Conditions from May onward proved relatively dry, and by 23 May, the Ottawa River flows had sufficiently subsided that the plan reverted to prescribing L-limit releases once again. Thereafter, the L-limit rules were

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generally followed until 28 July, except during two minor deviation events (detailed in Section 2.2). Hot, dry weather persisted for several weeks in the spring and early summer, interrupted only a few times with spotty rainfall and the odd cool night. Though precipitation and local basin supplies were generally low following a wet April, inflows from the upper Great Lakes remained above normal throughout the reporting period, and so the net total inflows to Lake Ontario remained above normal, even during drought conditions. In response to the above-average inflows, Lake Ontario outflows as prescribed by Plan 2014 remained above average throughout the reporting period. With river and lake levels well within their normal ranges, by 28 July, Plan 2014 maximum outflow limits no longer applied, and prescribed releases were generally in accordance with the adjusted rule curve of the plan. That is, releases were set based on Lake Ontario’s above-average but declining levels and in consideration that inflows over the past year remained well above normal.

2.2. Deviations from Regulation Plan 2014 Figure 3 shows daily outflows compared to weekly plan-specified outflows from Lake Ontario. On 3 June, important outflow reductions of up to 16 percent facilitated the successful refloating of the grounded tanker, Chem Norma, near Morrisburg, Ontario. By the time the ship was freed, flow reductions had raised Lake St. Lawrence levels by up to 30 cm (1 ft) in the vicinity of the vessel. In so doing, 1 cm (0.4 in) of water was temporarily stored on Lake Ontario. This small amount of water was removed from Lake Ontario by 9 June. From 17 to 24 June, outflows were reduced to facilitate the installation of a Hydro-Quebec safety boom, which required divers to work in strong currents. The small amount of water temporarily stored on Lake Ontario during this work (under 1 cm or 0.4 in) was removed by 7 July. On 4 August, scheduled hydropower maintenance resulted in a temporary flow reduction for seven hours overnight, resulting in a brief but marked uptick in Lake St. Lawrence levels and the temporary storage of just over 1 cm (0.4 in) of water on Lake Ontario that was subsequently removed by 11 August.

2.3. Water Levels throughout the System Figure 4 shows the levels of Lake Ontario, which are primarily affected by water supplies to the lake, and to a lesser degree by outflows. As described in Sections 2.1 and 2.2, outflows generally followed Plan 2014 except during three minor deviations in June, July and August. For comparison purposes, the daily levels of 2016, 2017 and 2018 through August are shown. Lake Ontario levels remained above average throughout most of the reporting period. They remained relatively stable initially, before rising rapidly from mid-April to late May, peaking almost 0.6 m or two feet below the record-high peak of late May in 2017. Thereafter, the lake levels generally declined rapidly during hot, dry weather punctuated with infrequent storms, as outflows remained high due to the continued high inflows to the lake. At the end of the period, the level was at 74.83 m (245.51 ft), 1 cm (0.4 in) above average and 41 cm (16.1 in) lower than the level at this time last year. As a means of determining the impact of regulation activities on levels and outflows, the Board provides a comparison of Lake Ontario’s actual monthly levels and outflows to those that would

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have occurred under preproject conditions (i.e. the levels and outflows that would have occurred had regulation not been undertaken). A summary of this comparison for the reporting period is given in Table 4. This summary shows that the actual level of Lake Ontario ranged from 69 cm (2.3 ft) to 80 cm (2.6 ft) lower than it would have been compared to preproject conditions. A comparison of the daily levels to long-term average, weekly computed Plan 2014 levels, and the levels that would have occurred under preproject conditions is also shown in Figure 5. The water levels of Lake St. Lawrence (Figure 6) fluctuated below average until late April, when outflows started to be reduced as Ottawa River outflows began to increase. As outflows were quickly increased in mid-May, Lake St. Lawrence rapidly fell from very high to very low values in just a few weeks. Though levels remained very low thereafter, levels stayed above record-low values through the reporting period. Local residents and boaters contacted the Board with their concerns about such low levels for the second straight year, coinciding with high levels elsewhere and following the implementation of Plan 2014. On 31 August, the water level was 72.69 m (238.48 ft), 61 cm (24.0 in) below the long-term average, and near the record low set for late August in 1987. Daily water levels at Summerstown on Lake St. Francis were generally below or at average from March through mid-May. Thereafter, Lake St. Francis generally stayed slightly above average. Daily mean levels were at or above the Seaway Low Alert level throughout the navigation season (so commercial vessel traffic was not impeded by low levels in this section of the river). The daily water levels on Lake St. Louis generally remained above average over the past six months, as shown in Figure 7. Levels rose sharply in late April with strong freshet flows from the Ottawa River. Outflows from Lake Ontario were adjusted according to the Plan 2014 F-limit starting 28 April. Lake St. Louis was maintained near the first F-limit tier of 22.10 m (72.51 ft) until late May before declining as Ottawa River flows eased off. The daily levels at the Port of Montreal are shown in Figure 8. Montreal levels generally declined in March and varied near the average values until late April, when they quickly also spiked to above-average values. After peaking in early May, levels generally fell at a typical pace thereafter, and fell below average by early July, but then stayed near average thereafter following several rainfalls. Water levels remained well above chart datum throughout the reporting period. Chart datum is selected so that water levels seldom fall below it and only rarely is there less depth available than what charts depict. The daily levels of Lake St. Peter at Sorel are shown in Figure 9. Levels quickly fell during March to below-average values by month’s end. Levels then rose rapidly in mid-April, reaching very high values by month’s end, before quickly subsiding in early May and reaching average by late June, where they generally remained near thereafter. Water levels remained well above chart datum throughout the reporting period.

2.4. Iroquois Dam Operations The gates at Iroquois Dam were partially closed from 15 January to 1 March to facilitate stable ice formation upstream of the structure. Thereafter, all of the gates were raised to their typical “Summer Set” positions with the two navigation gates raised well above the water line. From 4 to 18 May, the gates were partially closed to suppress high levels on Lake St. Lawrence. Thereafter, all of the gates were reset to their “Summer Set” positions.

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2.5. Long Sault Dam Operations The Power Entities opened two to eighteen gates at Long Sault Dam from 12 to 28 March, 21 May to 2 June, 4 to 17 June and 24 June to 6 July to spill the amount of the total Lake Ontario outflow that exceeded the capacity of the Moses-Saunders Dam. The total amount of water spilled (lost to electrical power generation) reached a maximum daily average value of 1,359 m3/s (48,000 cfs) on 14 June.

2.6. Raisin River Diversion The Raisin River Diversion was opened from 4 July and remained open into September. Releases were very low during this period, varying from barely any flow to just 0.1 m3/s.

2.7. St. Lawrence Seaway Report The first vessel to transit the Seaway’s Montreal/Lake Ontario section was the McKeil Spirit on 29 March.

2.8. Hydropower Peaking and Ponding By letter dated 13 October 1983, the International Joint Commission (IJC) authorized Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and New York Power Authority (NYPA) to continue to carry out peaking and ponding operations at the St. Lawrence Project. The conditions and directives governing peaking and ponding operations are currently specified in Addendum No. 3 to the Operational Guides for Regulation Plan 1958-D. On 4 November 2016, the IJC renewed the approval for a 5-year period, dated 1 December 2016 to November 30, 2021, and requested an analysis on potential impacts for flow variations greater than 570 m³/s during the non-navigation season. The Power Entities are preparing this analysis. The Board must recommend any such changes prior to the Commission approving this practice and amending the Directive. No ponding operations were conducted from 1 March 2018 to 31 August 2018. Peaking operations were permitted from 1 to 13 May but were only conducted on 1 May, and were suspended otherwise during higher-flow periods. 3. Board Activities The Board continued to direct the outflow from the hydropower project in the international reach of the St. Lawrence River. The Board, primarily through the offices of the regulation representatives, monitored conditions throughout the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system. The regulation representatives provided the Board with weekly water level, forecast, and hydrologic conditions updates, weekly regulation data and monthly reviews of the hydrological conditions. The Board’s Operations Advisory Group (OAG) continued to hold weekly teleconferences to review conditions and advise the regulation representatives on weekly operational requirements and constraints. The Board continued to work with the IJC, through the Communications Committee, to seek opportunities to enhance communications, outreach, and engagement with its stakeholders and the public. The Committee on River Gauging continued to monitor the Power Entities’ program for operation and maintenance of the gauging system required for Board operations, hold teleconferences as necessary, report to the Board four times annually, and prepare an annual report.

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3.1. Board Meetings & Conference Calls The Board met in person twice, along with IJC staff, associated subcommittees, and advisory groups to conduct business and assess conditions during the reporting period. The Board held face-to-face meetings on 29 March in Buffalo, New York and on 24 April in Washington, DC. Table 5 provides a list of Board members in attendance at these in-person meetings.

3.2. Board and Committee Membership Changes Dr. Diane Kuehn replaced Dr. Frank Sciremammano as a US Board member on 30 May. LTC Jason Toth replaced LTC Adam Czekanski as US Regulation Representative on 29 June. Ms. Lauren Schifferle joined the US regulation representative team as a technical advisor. There were a considerable number of changes to the membership of the Operations Advisory Group. Don Ferko (member) and Jordan Hughes (alternate) replaced Brent Morton as OPG’s representative, though Mr. Morton remains an alternate. Pat Davis (member), George Slate, and Shirley Wagner (alternates) replaced Shirley Wagner (member) and Nick Tsibulsky (alternate) as NYPA’s representatives. Samir Gharbi stepped down as one of the Canadian Coast Guard alternates.

3.3. Communications, Outreach and Engagement During the reporting period, the Communications Committee, individual Board members, the secretaries and the regulation representatives were actively engaged in outreach, information exchange and liaison with stakeholders throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system and participated in various stakeholder and public meetings. Full details on recent communications activities are in Appendix A and the members of the joint Board-IJC Communications Committee are listed in Appendix B. Board members and staff responded to a number of telephone and email inquiries from local government officials, interested stakeholders and members of the general public concerning water level conditions and Board strategies and conducted numerous interviews with the media. Board staff continued to send weekly updates on current conditions to over 420 email subscribers. Weekly and monthly updates on the Board’s Facebook pages continue to be posted in both French and English and Board staff frequently respond to public questions and comments. The French and English pages currently have over 314 and 3,164 “likes” respectively. The Board’s Facebook posts have recently reached up to a total of almost 60,000 people. The Board and Commission responded to multiple concerns and complaints from mid-May onward during a period of very low levels in Lake St. Lawrence, and this proved to be the most challenging outreach effort since last year’s high-water period. The Board continued to operate and maintain its website (http://www.ijc.org/en_/islrbc) and is currently working with the IJC Website Modernization Working Group to migrate the Board website to a modernized platform. The Board website is expected to be migrated to the modernized platform by the end of the year. The website currently includes:

Weekly tabular and graphical updates on water levels, outflow changes, and water supply information;

General information about the Board, its activities and its structure;

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Current and archived media releases; Frequently Asked Questions and responses; Semi-annual progress reports, meeting minutes, and other background

publications; Animated “Learning Modules”, a Video Gallery of past public teleconferences, and

Photo Gallery displaying content from the Board’s Flickr page.

3.4. Gauging Committee The St. Lawrence Committee on River Gauging (Gauging Committee) is granted authority by the Board to ensure the accuracy of flow estimates and water level measurements in the international section of the St. Lawrence River. The Gauging Committee inspects the computational methods employed at each of the eight outflow structures and monitors the operation and maintenance of the water level gauges owned and operated by the Power Entities. The committee conducts an annual field inspection of 16 of the water level gauges used by the Board to monitor river conditions and performs monthly audits of the water level and outflow data collected and archived by the Power Entities. The findings and results of these activities are documented in an annual report to the Board. The 81st (2017) report is currently being finalized. The 82nd (2018) report is currently being prepared and will include the findings and results of the annual inspection that was completed from 11-14 June 2018. 4. Adaptive Management Committee The Great Lakes - St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee of technical experts, established by the IJC to consider adaptive management methods under the authority of the Boards, as part of an on-going evaluation of regulation plans, continued to work with the Board to implement the science-based recommendations of past studies and develop new ones. The Board seeks to evaluate regulation plan performance over time with regard to a broad range of environmental and economic indicators. The committee has been very active and are completing a report on the hydrology, conditions, impacts, and the plan performance during the 2017 high-water crisis. For more information on GLAM’s activities, refer to the progress reports on the GLAM Committee’s website.

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Table 1

Provisional Monthly Mean Supplies to Lake Ontario

Month Inflow from Lake Erie Net Basin Supplies Net Total Supplies

m3/s tcfs Exceed. Prob.(1)

% of LTA(1)

m3/s tcfs Exceed. Prob. (1)

m3/s tcfs Exceed. Prob. (1)

% of LTA(1)

Mar ‘18 7150 252 4 124 1500 53 77 8650 305 24 111 Apr ‘18 7510 265 3 125 2980 105 34 10490 370 6 122 May ‘18 7590 268 3 121 1670 59 48 9260 327 14 116 Jun ‘18 7440 263 4 118 920 32 68 8360 295 18 112 Jul ‘18 7180 254 7 116 330 12 76 7510 265 22 109 Aug ‘18 7090 250 6 116 310 11 32 7400 261 6 117 6-month Average

7330 259 4 120 1280 45 61 8610 304 10 115

(1) Based on period of record 1900-2017

Table 2 Provisional Precipitation over the Great Lakes and Lake Ontario Basins

Month Great Lakes Basin Lake Ontario Basin

mm (inches) % of LTA(1)

Exceed. Prob.(1)

mm (inches) % of LTA(1) Exceed. Prob.(1)

Mar ‘18 29 (1.14) 53 94 46 (1.81) 69 83 Apr ‘18 63 (2.48) 95 52 100 (3.94) 135 14 May ‘18 80 (3.15) 104 42 52 (2.05) 66 80 Jun ‘18 70 (2.76) 84 70 68 (2.68) 84 64 Jul ‘18 64 (2.52) 80 82 75 (2.95) 94 56 Aug ‘18 94 (3.70) 118 22 96 (3.78) 120 24

6-month Average 67 (2.64) 91 79 73 (2.87) 95 62

(1) Based on period of record 1900-2017

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Table 3a Summary of Weekly Outflows, Operational Adjustments and Deviations

Week Ending 2018

Adjusted Rule Curve

Flow Plan Flow App.

Rule/ Limit

Actual Flow

Operational Adjustments &/or Plan Limitations

Deviations

Details Weekly Accumulated

Cumulative effect on L. Ontario Type

m3/s tcfs m3/s tcfs m3/s tcfs m3/s tcfs m3/s tcfs m3/s‐wks

tcfs‐wks

cm in

02‐Mar 8980 317 8810 311 I 8810 311 ‐170 ‐6 ‐‐ ‐‐ 100 3.5 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 ‐‐

Operational adjustments (OAs) for max. F‐limit flow (maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m while L. Ont. <75.30 m), and max. I‐limit (ice management/stability at Beauharnois Canal)

09‐Mar 9140 323 9140 323 RC 9140 323 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 100 3.5 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 ‐‐

Within‐the‐week flow adjustment to achieve weekly mean Plan flow (Adjusted Rule Curve)

16‐Mar 9160 323 9160 323 RC 9160 323 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 100 3.5 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 ‐‐ Plan (Adjusted Rule Curve)

23‐Mar 9130 322 9130 322 RC 9140 323 10 0 10 0.4 110 3.9 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 Unin‐tent.

Unintentional deviation

30‐Mar 8950 316 8830 312 RC/L 8830 312 ‐120 ‐4 ‐‐ ‐‐ 110 3.9 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 ‐‐

Plan (Adjusted Rule Curve), then decrease to Plan (maximum L‐limit) at opening of Seaway navigation season on 29‐Mar

06‐Apr 8880 314 8520 301 L 8520 301 ‐360 ‐13 ‐‐ ‐‐ 110 3.9 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 ‐‐ Plan (maximum L‐limit)

13‐Apr 9110 322 8580 303 L 8580 303 ‐530 ‐19 ‐‐ ‐‐ 110 3.9 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 ‐‐ Plan (maximum L‐limit)

20‐Apr 9080 321 8550 302 L 8550 302 ‐530 ‐19 ‐‐ ‐‐ 110 3.9 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 ‐‐ Plan (maximum L‐limit), return Lake St. Lawrence above 72.60 m, OAs for max L‐limit

27‐Apr 9280 328 8700 307 L 8710 308 ‐570 ‐20 10 0.4 120 4.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 Unin‐tent.


04‐May 9470 334 7940 280 L/F 7940 280 ‐1530 ‐54 ‐‐ ‐‐ 120 4.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 ‐‐

Plan (maximum L‐limit), and OAs for max. F‐limit (maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m while L. Ont. <75.30 m)

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Week Ending 2018

Adjusted Rule Curve

Flow Plan Flow App.

Rule/ Limit

Actual Flow

Operational Adjustments &/or Plan Limitations

Deviations

Details Weekly Accumulated

Cumulative effect on L. Ontario Type


tcfs‐wks

cm in

11‐May 9580 338 7540 266 F 7540 266 ‐2040 ‐72 ‐‐ ‐‐ 120 4.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 ‐‐ OAs for max. F‐limit (maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m while L. Ont. <75.30 m)

18‐May 9620 340 8260 292 F 8260 292 ‐1360 ‐48 ‐‐ ‐‐ 120 4.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 ‐‐ OAs for max. F‐limit (maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m while L. Ont. <75.30 m)

25‐May 9560 338 9250 327 F 9250 327 ‐310 ‐11 ‐‐ ‐‐ 120 4.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 ‐‐

OAs for max. F‐limit (maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m while L. Ont. <75.30 m) and max L‐limit

01‐Jun 9560 338 9360 331 L 9360 331 ‐200 ‐7 ‐‐ ‐‐ 120 4.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 ‐‐ Plan (maximum L‐limit)

08‐Jun 9410 332 9250 327 L 9170 324 ‐240 ‐8 ‐80 ‐2.8 40 1.4 ‐0.1 0 Minor

Plan (maximum L‐limit), and minor deviation to raise levels to assist grounded ship in upper St. Lawrence River

15‐Jun 9480 335 9290 328 L 9290 328 ‐190 ‐7 ‐‐ ‐‐ 40 1.4 ‐0.1 0 ‐‐ Plan (maximum L‐limit)

22‐Jun 9280 328 9110 322 L 8800 311 ‐480 ‐17 ‐310 ‐11 ‐270 ‐9.5 0.8 0.3 Minor

Plan (maximum L‐limit), and minor deviation to facilitate installation of safety boom by Hydro Quebec

29‐Jun 9200 325 9000 318 L 9110 322 ‐90 ‐3 110 3.9 ‐160 ‐5.7 0.5 0.2 Minor Minor deviation payback (for installation of safety boom by Hydro Quebec)

06‐Jul 9110 322 8960 316 L 9120 322 10 0 160 5.7 0 0 0 0 Minor Continue minor deviation to remove water stored previously on Lake Ontario

13‐Jul 8980 317 8820 311 L 8820 311 ‐160 ‐6 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ Plan (maximum L‐limit)



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Week Ending 2018

Adj. RC Flow Plan Flow App. Rule/ Limit

Actual Flow

Op. Adjustments &/or Plan Limitations

Deviations

Details Weekly Accumulated Cumulative effect on L. Ontario Type


tcfs‐wks

cm in

03‐Aug 8660 306 8660 306 RC 8650 305 ‐10 ‐0.4 ‐10 ‐0.4 ‐10 ‐0.4 0 0 Unin‐tent.


10‐Aug 8580 303 8580 303 RC 8590 303 10 0.4 10 0.4 0 0 0 0 Minor Minor deviation and payback for scheduled NYPA bank outage

17‐Aug 8510 301 8510 301 RC 8510 301 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ Plan (Adjusted Rule Curve)



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Table 3b Summary of Flow Changes

Week Ending 2018

Flow Changes

Details Day Hr

(m3/s) (tcfs)

Reason App. Rule/ Limit From To From To

02‐Mar

24‐Feb 1201 8100 8600 286.0 303.7 OA F Maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m; L. Ont. < 75.30 m

25‐Feb 2001 8600 8750 303.7 309.0 OA F Max F‐limit (maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m; L. Ont. < 75.30 m) 26‐Feb 1401 8750 8900 309.0 314.3 OA F

28‐Feb 1201 8900 9000 314.3 317.8 OA I Ice management/stability at Beauharnois Canal

09‐Mar 4‐Mar 0001 9000 9160 317.8 323.5 Plan RC Within‐the‐week flow adjustment to achieve weekly mean Plan flow (Adjusted Rule Curve)

16‐Mar ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ Plan RC

Plan (Adjusted Rule Curve) 23‐Mar 17‐Mar 0001 9160 9130 323.5 322.4 Plan RC

30‐Mar

24‐Mar 0001 9130 8950 322.4 316.1 Plan RC

29‐Mar 0001 8950 8550 316.1 301.9 OA L Seaway opening, decrease to maximum L‐limit

06‐Apr 31‐Mar 0001 8550 8520 301.9 300.9 Plan L

Plan (maximum L‐limit) 13‐Apr 7‐Apr 0001 8520 8580 300.9 303.0 Plan L

20‐Apr

14‐Apr 0001 8580 8590 303.0 303.4 Plan L

16‐Apr 0001 8590 8000 303.4 282.5 OA L Return Lake St. Lawrence above 72.60 m

17‐Apr 0001 8000 8590 282.5 303.4 OA L

Operational adjustment to maximum L‐limit 17‐Apr 1601 8590 8670 303.4 306.2 OA L

19‐Apr 1601 8670 8700 306.2 307.2 OA L

27‐Apr ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ Plan L Plan (maximum L‐limit)

04‐May

28‐Apr 0001 8700 8750 307.2 309.0 Plan L

28‐Apr 1601 8750 8400 309.0 296.6 OA F

Maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m; L. Ont. < 75.30 m

29‐Apr 1601 8400 8200 296.6 289.6 OA F

30‐Apr 1801 8200 7900 289.6 279.0 OA F

1‐May 1201 7900 7600 279.0 268.4 OA F

11‐May 7‐May 1201 7600 7400 268.4 261.3 OA F

9‐May 1401 7400 7600 261.3 268.4 OA F

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Week Ending 2018

Flow Changes

Details Day Hr

(m3/s) (tcfs) Reason

App. Rule/ Limit From To From To

18‐May

12‐May 0001 7600 7800 268.4 275.5 OA F

Maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m; L. Ont. < 75.30 m

13‐May 1201 7800 8000 275.5 282.5 OA F

14‐May 1201 8000 8200 282.5 289.6 OA F

15‐May 1201 8200 8500 289.6 300.2 OA F

15‐May 2001 8500 8350 300.2 294.9 OA F

17‐May 0001 8350 8500 294.9 300.2 OA F

17‐May 1401 8500 8700 300.2 307.2 OA F

18‐May 2001 8700 8900 307.2 314.3 OA F

25‐May

19‐May 1601 8900 9100 314.3 321.4 OA F

21‐May 1601 9100 9330 321.4 329.5 OA F/L Operational adjustment to max F‐limit (Maintain L. St. Louis at 22.10 m; L. Ont. < 75.30 m) and max L‐limit

23‐May 1601 9330 9400 329.5 332.0 OA L Operational adjustment to max L‐limit

01‐Jun 26‐May 0001 9400 9360 332.0 330.5 Plan L Plan (maximum L‐limit)

08‐Jun

2‐Jun 0001 9360 9250 330.5 326.7 Plan L

3‐Jun 0001 9250 8750 326.7 309.0 Dev Minor

Minor deviation (and payback) to raise levels to assist grounded ship in upper St. Lawrence River

3‐Jun 0501 8750 7750 309.0 273.7 Dev Minor

3‐Jun 2101 7750 8600 273.7 303.7 Dev Minor

4‐Jun 0401 8600 9400 303.7 332.0 Dev Minor

15‐Jun 9‐Jun 0001 9400 9290 332.0 328.1 Plan L Plan (maximum L‐limit)

22‐Jun 16‐Jun 0001 9290 9110 328.1 321.7 Plan L

17‐Jun 1601 9110 8700 321.7 307.2 Dev Minor Minor deviation (and payback) to facilitate installation of safety boom by Hydro Quebec

29‐Jun 24‐Jun 0601 8700 9200 307.2 324.9 Dev Minor

06‐Jul 30‐Jun 0001 9200 9120 324.9 322.1 Dev Minor

13‐Jul 7‐Jul 0001 9120 8820 322.1 311.5 Plan L

Plan (maximum L‐limit) 20‐Jul 14‐Jul 0001 8820 8740 311.5 308.7 Plan L

27‐Jul 21‐Jul 0001 8740 8690 308.7 306.9 Plan L

03‐Aug 28‐Jul 0001 8690 8660 306.9 305.8 Plan RC Plan (Adjusted Rule Curve)

10‐Aug

4‐Aug 0001 8660 7380 305.8 260.6 Dev Minor Minor deviation (and payback) for scheduled NYPA bank outage

4‐Aug 0701 7380 8010 260.6 282.9 Dev Minor

4‐Aug 0801 8010 8630 282.9 304.8 Dev Minor

17‐Aug 11‐Aug 0001 8630 8510 304.8 300.5 Plan RC Plan (Adjusted Rule Curve)



17

Table 4 Lake Ontario Recorded and Preproject Levels and Outflows

Month Lake Ontario Monthly Mean Water Levels

meters (feet) IGLD 1985 Lake Ontario Monthly Mean Outflow

m3/s (tcfs)

Recorded Pre-project Diff. Recorded Pre-project Diff.

Mar ‘18 74.93 (245.83) 75.70 (248.36) -0.77 (-2.53) 9040 (319) 8350 (295) 690 (24)

Apr ‘18 75.01 (246.09) 75.81 (248.72) -0.80 (-2.63) 8570 (303) 8750 (309) -180 (-6)

May ‘18 75.26 (246.91) 75.96 (249.21) -0.70 (-2.30) 8450 (298) 9060 (320) -610 (-22)

Jun ‘18 75.22 (246.78) 75.91 (249.05) -0.69 (-2.27) 9100 (321) 8970 (317) 130 (5)

Jul ‘18 75.06 (246.26) 75.78 (248.62) -0.72 (-2.36) 8810 (311) 8680 (307) 130 (5)

Aug ‘18 74.91 (245.76) 75.65 (248.19) -0.74 (-2.43) 8490 (300) 8400 (297) 90 (3)

Table 5 Attendance at Meetings

Board Member

Country 29 March 24 April

MG M. Toy1 US - -

Dr. G. Bechard2 Can. X -

Mr. J. Aubry-Morin Can. X X

Mr. T. Brown US - X

Mr. R. Campany US X X

Ms. P. Clavet Can. Ph.4 Ph.4

Mr. T. David US X X5

Mr. S. Durrett3 US X -

Ms. J. Frain Can. X X

Mr. M. Hudon Can. X X

Dr. F. Sciremammano, Jr. US X X

Notes: 1. US Co-Chair 2. Canadian Co-Chair 3. US Alternate chair 4. attended remotely by phone 5. Designated meeting Chair

Location of Meeting: 29 March 2018: Buffalo, NY, US 24 April 2018: Washington DC, US

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Appendix A: Communications Committee Summary of Activities

Since 1 March 2018, the International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board Communications Committee held six meetings, generally occurring at the beginning of the month via teleconference. The Committee continued to engage in initiatives and develop products to accomplish five strategic communication goals:

increase general public awareness of the IJC and the Board; communicate accurately and in a timely fashion the actions of the Board and the reason for

those actions; explain how natural factors and regulation affect water levels and flows; increase understanding of the necessity of and need to prepare for fluctuations in levels

and flows; and consistently seek out, consider and respond to the views and concerns of all stakeholders.

New York State’s Spectrum News aired a feature on the high-water crisis titled “Troubled Waters” initially from 7:00-7:30 pm on 25 April with a live 60-minute town hall discussion following. Mr. David, Mr. Werick and Mr. Koralewski participated. This feature later aired several more times. Several Board representatives were interviewed in June by the Institute of Journalism, which will return in late September with a busload of interested journalists to showcase several environmental/water related stories, with several hours scheduled in Cornwall to discuss water management and regulatory operations. This will provide a great opportunity for the Board to outreach to the media. Much effort and focus centered around the Board’s release of its report on the 2017 high-water crisis. The Board held two media webinars on 21 June (one in English, the other in French) to discuss the report findings. A presentation was prepared to facilitate meetings with community leaders and elected officials. An International Watershed Initiatives (IWI) project was initiated by ECO Strategy in May aimed at critiquing the Board’s communications throughout the 2017 high-water event. A final report is expected in late 2018. The US Army Corps of Engineers and Fisheries and Oceans Canada provided some additional communications support. Board members and representatives actively engaged stakeholders by presenting at or attending the following venues where they also answered questions and concerns from those present: 4 April Regroupement des Usagers du Saint-Laurent, Montreal, Quebec 11 July St. Lawrence River Institute of Environmental Sciences, Long Sault, Ontario 21 July 1000 Islands Association, Gananoque, Ontario 6 August Tour of Greece, New York waterfront properties 22 August Wilson Hill Association, Wilson Hill, New York

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Appendix B: Communications Committee Membership

Mr. R. Campany Mr. T. David Mr. A. Heer Mr. K. Koralewski Mr. F. Bevacqua Mr. D. Hermann Mr. B. Carmichael Mr. W. Werick

Mr. M. Hudon Mr. R. Caldwell Mr. J. Bruxer Ms. S. Lobrichon Mr. D. Fay Ms. W. Leger Mr. M. Shantz

Documents

One Hundred and Thirtieth Progress Report to the