One attainment gap: a million stories

One attainment gap:

a million stories

1

“The fact that family background is still such a strong determinant of a child’s outcomes is an affront to a civilised, progressive society”

2

Source: Feinstein et al. 2007.

A famous cohort study of those born in 1970 showed

that bright children from lower

socio-economic groups quickly lost their initial

advantage…

3

Source: Feinstein. 2003

Average rank of test scores at 22, 42, 60 & 120 months by SES of parents and early rank position

By age 10, a low SES child with an upper quartile score in cognitive development at

22 months is predicted to have fallen behind their high SES peers with a lower quartile

score.

4Source: Feinstein. 2003

This pattern looks set to repeat for children in the Millennium Cohort Study,

born in 2000

5

6

Source: Blanden and Machin. 2007.

1. Education matters

7

It matters for individuals…

8

“Education-related inequalities have an

impact over the life-span, not

just in childhood.”

9

Source: Equality and Human Rights Commission. 2010.

To start, education and happiness are linked

Degree or PhD A Levels GCSE

% Very Happy

None

Chicken or egg?

10

35 30 28 23

Source: Ipsos Mori. 2008

The more you learn the more you earn

Over the course of a lifetime, a graduate from a Russell Group university will earn on average £371,000 more than someone

who left school with less than 5 good GCSEs.

11

Source: The Sutton Trust and Boston Consulting Group. 2010.

Each extra year of education is correlated with wages (almost)

12

Source: Walker and Zhu. 2003.

Different degrees have different effects on wages

13

Source: Walker and Zhu. 2003.

NEET(Those not in Education, Employment or Training)

14

“£35 billion is the cost to the taxpayer for only one generation of NEET. No one can put a value on the human cost.”

15

Source: Audit Commission. 2010.

17.1% of 16-24 year olds are NEET.

That’s 19.9% of females and 14.3% of males.

5% of ALL 16 year olds are currently NEET.

Non-NEETs

NEET

17.1%

16

Source: Labour Force Survey. 2011.

28% of young people with no qualifications spent more than 12 months NEET compared to 1% of their peers who attained 8 GCSEs at A*-C level.

You are more at risk of spending time NEET if you have no

qualifications

No Qualifications 8 A* -C GCSEs

72

28

99

1

17

Source: Department for Education. 2010.

So what? Does being NEET for

a while matter?

18

“Spending time NEET is a major predictor of later unemployment,

low income, depression and poor

mental health”19

Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2008.

A Matter of Life and DeathReports from the North of England

estimate that 1 in 7 long term NEETs are dead within a decade.

“For those who console ourselves with the thought that education is not

a matter of life and death, actually for those young people, for the most vulnerable children and young people

in our society, it really is.”

20

Source: Jon Coles quoted in Children & Young People Now. 2009.

Teen Unemployment has a lasting effects…

Teenage unemployment leaves permanent scars, not temporary

blemishes:

“The effects of a period without work do not end with that spell”

21

Source: Ellwood. 1982.

Thousands of young people are excluded from schoolIn England, between 2008 and 2009 there were:

6,550 permanent exclusions

363,280 fixed period exclusions.

22


So what? Does being excluded

for a while matter?

23

Permanent Exclusions have Permanent Effects

“Of those who are excluded on a permanent basis, only 27% of primary age pupils and 15% of

secondary pupils return to mainstream education”

24

Source: Parsons. 1996.

Who is at highest risk of exclusion?

Boys: x 3.5 (permanent)

Special Educational Needs: x 8+ (permanent)

Black Caribbean Pupils: x 3 (permanent)

Free School Meals Pupils: x 3 (fixed term or permanent)

Young people in care: x 10 (fixed term or permanent)

25

Sources: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2010. Social Exclusion Unit. 1998.

So it is easy to see how education also matters for society.

Take crime as an example…

26

High Exclusion Rates amongst 15-18 year olds Inside our Prisons

“90% of young men and 75% of young women had been excluded from school.”

27

Source: Cripps. 2009.

What do we know about the 82,000 adult prison inmates…

Over 25% are former looked after children.

50% of all males and 33% of all females were excluded from school.

Over 50% of all males and 70% of all females achieved no qualifications at all at school or college.

Men Women

25%

50%

25%

33%

50%

70%

Were excluded from school

Former looked after children

Achieved no qualifications at school or college

28

Source: Department for Communities and Local Government. 2008.

Young Offender Institutions

75% of young offenders did not attend school past the age of 13

29

Source: Smart Justice for Young People website. March 2011.http://www.smartjustice.org/ypfacts.html

Nearly 3 in 4 of young offenders were excluded whilst at school

30

Source: Smart Justice for Young People website. March 2011.http://www.smartjustice.org/ypfacts.html

Over half of those in Young Offender Institutions (aged

15-21) are below the expected level of an

average 11 year old in numeracy and literacy

31

Source: An Audit of Education Provision within the Juvenile Secure Estate. 2001.

Through earnings, we can also see how education is linked

to health…

32

Life expectancy

People living in the poorest neighbourhoods in England will, on average, die seven years

earlier than those living in the richest neighbourhoods. The gap is bigger between

some areas:

Kensington and Chelsea

Male = 88 years

Tottenham Green

Male = 71 years

33

Source: The Marmot Review. 2010.

Parental income and child mortality

“The infant mortality rate for babies with fathers in routine occupations (NS-SEC group 7) was twice that for

babies with fathers in the higher managerial occupations.”

34

Source: Office for National Statistics. 2009.

Education and the Economy“As the global economy changes, an economy’s prosperity will be driven

increasingly by its skills base”

35

Source: Leitch Review of Skills. 2006.

We need skills“Skills are a key lever within our control to improve

productivity in the workplace – one fifth or more of the UK’s productivity gap with countries such as

France and Germany results from the UK’s relatively poor skills.”

“Increasingly, skills are a key determinant of employment – less than half of those with no

qualifications are in work, compared to nearly 90 per cent of those with graduate level qualifications.”

36


We need futuristic skills!

A focus on 'high levels of skill and creativity' and 'technological change' are needed.

“We require a skills system that not only responds to demand but is also able to anticipate future growth

in the economy in areas such as low carbon or bioscience, or in those driven by broader

demographic change such as the care, hospitality and leisure sectors.”

37

Source: The Schools White Paper. 2010.

The UK’s Skills Profile is LowOf 30 OECD countries, the UK

currently lies 17th on low skills, 20th on intermediate skills and 11th on

high skills

“5 million adults in the UK lack functional literacy, and 17 million

adults have difficulty with numbers.”

38


Question: If inequalities are passed on from

one generation to the next, how do we break the cycle?

39

2. The attainment

gap

40

There are gaps by gender

41


There are gaps by ethnic group

42


The socio-economic

attainment gap starts early

43

1 YearThe gap in ‘school readiness’

between 3-year-olds in the richest and poorest

families

44

Source: George et al. Centre for Longitudinal Studies. 2007.

15 MonthsThe gap in vocabulary development between

5 year-olds in the richest and poorest families

45

Source: Blanden and Machin. Millennium Cohort Study Briefing. 2010.

Vocabulary gaps aged 62-months

46

Source: Waldfogel and Washbrook. The Sutton Trust. 2010.

The gaps don’t stop there. They continue, and widen,

throughout school

47

Gaps in Key Stage 1 tests by FSM status

48


Gaps in Key Stage 2 tests by FSM status

49


The Gaps widen by Key Stage 4

2009 exam results by FSM for % 5 A*-C grades including English and Maths:

Percentage point gap = 27 points.

FSM

27

54

Non-FSM

% 5 A*-C GCSEs

(Eng & Maths)

National

50

51


GCSE Gaps by Local Income Deprivation

In 2009, 38% of pupils in schools in the 10% most deprived areas gained 5 A*-C grades (including English and Maths) at

GCSE.

63% achieved this benchmark in the 10% least deprived areas.

This is a gap of 25 percentage points.

Most deprived

areas

Least deprived

areas

% 5 A*-C GCSEs (E&M)

63

38

51


Income deprivation and GCSE results are highly correlated, but there is large variation between schools

y = -0.2848x + 65.894

R2 = 0.2286

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

% of pupils living in the lowest 30% of the IDACI ranking

% 5

A*-

C G

CS

E (

E&

M)

52

Source: National Pupil Database and School Census information. 2010.

In 2007/2008 the University of Oxford accepted:

711 Further Mathematics A-Levels

494 in total of the following A-Levels Accounting, Art & Design, Business Studies, Communication Studies, Design & Technology, Drama/Theatre Studies, Film Studies, Home Economics, ICT, Law, Media Studies, Music Technology, Psychology, Sociology, Sports Studies/Physical Education and Travel & Tourism A-level.

A-Level Choices Matter

53

Source: Fazackerley and Chant. Policy Exchange. 2008.

Pupils at independent schools are roughly three times more likely to be doing

further maths and 2.5 times more likely to be doing a language A-level than those

at comprehensive schools.

Who is taking Further Maths?

54

Source: Select Committee Inquiry into Students and Universities. 2009.

Who gets 3 Grade As at A-level?

55

Source: Select Committee Inquiry into Students and Universities. 2009.

“While only 20% of A-level students come from independent and grammar schools,

they account for over half of those gaining 3As. Only 7% of candidates in

comprehensive schools gain 3As.”

From 7% to 46%: Independent school representation from school to Oxford

56

Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2008. Emery. Cambridge Assessment. 2009. University of Oxford. 2009.

Different lives

57

Source: The Sutton Trust. 2009.

“Britain is falling short in its aspiration to provide

equal chances for everyone to thrive”

58


Gaps in Access to Higher Education

59

16% of students at Russell Group universities are from lower socio-economics

backgrounds.

In 2008, out of over ½ a million applicants to higher education through UCAS, only 4.9%

were from students with a family background of routine occupations.

1/3 of admissions to Oxbridge came from 100 elite schools during the last 5 years.

Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009. UCAS Statistical Services. 2009. The Sutton Trust. 2008.

Unequal access to the professions

60

Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.

"The data we have seen suggests that tomorrow’s

professional is today growing up in a family

richer than seven in ten of all families in the UK.”

61

Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.

3. Does such

inequality have a cost?

62

Yes.£1.3 trillion

63


How has that been calculated?

“Improving levels of social mobility for future generations in the UK would boost

the economy by up to £140 billion a year by 2050 in today’s prices – or an additional 4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over and

above any other growth.Overall the UK’s economy would see

cumulative gains of up to £1.3 trillion in GDP over the next 40 years.”

64


But currently we have the lowest social mobility in OECD

65

Source: D’Addio. OECD. 2010.

Against other international rankings

we rate poorly…

66

PISA 2009 resultsOf 65 countries the UK was ranked:

16th in Science

25th in Reading

28th in Maths

67

Source: PISA. 2009.

PISA shows that England has large variation in results…

“England had a wide spread of attainment compared with many other countries. As well as high achievers,

England had a substantial ‘tail’ of low-scoring students. Only two PISA countries

had a wider spread than England (New Zealand and Israel).”

68

Source: PISA. 2006.

The UK has high variation between its students

69

Source: OECD. 2010.

4. Why does this

happen? What are the

causes?70

There are many interrelated causes. This presentation

explores some of the inequalities in ORE:

Opportunities. Resources. Expectations.

71

“In order to flourish in life, every person needs a basic level of financial security

and decent housing.”

72


Income deprivation is concentrated in certain geographical areas

73

Source: Office of National Statistics. 2010.

London: wealth and poverty side by side

74

Source: Greater London Authority. 2008.

13% of Children in England live in severe poverty*

• That’s approximately 1.7 million Children.

• And means that more than 1 in 5 children in the UK live in severe poverty.

• That’s 260,000 higher than the figures for 2004!

13%

75

*Severe poverty is defined as coupleliving on less than £12,220 a yearwhen they have one child.

Source: Save the Children. 2010.

Question:Are socio-economic inequalities

getting better?

76

Incomes in the UK are diverging

% s

hare

of

inco

me

"The richest 20% of households in the UK have over 40% of the total income. On the other hand, the bottom 20% receive

under 10%."

77

Source: Office for National Statistics. 2009.

Child poverty predicted to rise

“In 2013–14, we expect relative poverty to rise by about 200,000 children,100,000 working-age parents and 200,000 working-age adults without children, and absolute poverty to rise by about 100,000 children, 100,000 working-age parents and 100,000 working-age adults without children.”

78

Source: Brewer and Joyce. Institute for Fiscal Studies. 2010.

Question:What does childhood look like?

How much does it cost?

79

Aged 3: Has internet at home

80


Aged 3: Watches more than 3 hours of TV per day

81

27% 13% 5%


Aged 3: Is read to daily

82

45% 65% 78%


Aged 5: Taken to museum/gallery in last year

83


1/5The proportion of students who have received private tuition at some point

during their school lives.

£24The average (median) cost of an hour

of private tuition in 2009.

84

Sources: Ipsos Mori. 2010. Tanner et al. NCSR. 2009.

Money spent on education outside of school is increasing.

85

$9 billionThe worldwide market for

edutainment toys reached $2.35 billion in 2007.

This figure is expected to reach $9 billion by 2012.

86

Source: www.instat.com. 2008.

Question:Who can access this increasing market in educational goods?

87

88

£6,762 vs £10,713(State vs Private)

On average, nearly £4,000 more is spent per pupil in the private sector than the state

sector.

£

Sources: Estimates based on DCSF figures. 2009. Independent School Council CENSUS. 2010.

Low expectations? Which of the following best describes the

frequency with which you advise the academically gifted pupils that you teach

(or have taught) to apply to Oxbridge?

89

Source: IPSOS MORI Teachers Omnibus. 2007.

44%The number of teachers in the

Teachers Omnibus 2007 who believe studying at Oxbridge is more

expensive than studying at other universities.

(They may now be right.)

90

Source: IPSOS MORI Teachers Omnibus. 2007.

Internships: the unpaid route into the professions

“With four in five employers recruiting former interns, there is also compelling evidence that internships have become one of the most important routes into

the professions.”

91

Source: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.

“the less advantaged are most put off by the costs of undertaking an internship”

Unleashing Aspiration Report, 2009.

Opportunities Come at a Cost

92

Source: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.

Good teaching and leadership is also a crucial resource…

93

“Outstanding” or “Good” Leadership and Management relates to higher

GCSE results

94

Source: OFSTED. 2007/08.

But, 1/3 of schools are still not meeting good standards of

Leadership and Management

The overall effectiveness of leadership and management of schools inspected between September 2007 and July 2008 (% of schools)

0 20 40 60 80 100

4- Inadequate

3 - Satisfactory

2 - Good

1 - Outstanding

Ofs

ted

Ratin

g

% of schools

95


And, 40% of schools are still not meeting good standards of teaching

qualityThe overall effectiveness of teaching and learning between September 2007

and July 2008 (% of schools)

0 20 40 60 80 100

4- Inadequate

3 - Satisfactory

2 - Good

1 - Outstanding

Ofs

ted

Ratin

g

% of schools

96


There are shortages in leadership

97

Source: Howson. 2010.

40%The re-advertisement rate of

primary head teacher posts acrossEngland in 2009/10

98

Source: Howson and Sprigade. 2011.

28%The re-advertisement rate of

secondary head teacher posts acrossEngland in 2009/10

99

Source: Howson and Sprigade. 2011.

Teacher turnover can be high

100

Source: Passy and Golden. NFER. 2010.

Perhaps wastage matters more than turnover?

Of the teachers surveyed who resigned in 2006, 18% included wastage which is the movement of teachers to the independent sector or leaving the teaching profession entirely

101

Source: Passy and Golden. NFER. 2010.

What causes difficulties in recruitment?

Amongst the schools facing more difficulties in recruitment are those who meet two or more of the following characteristics from the list below:

102

Source: Howson. 2010.

4%The proportion of trainee

teachers without any previous experience in a challenging

school, who say they are very likely to apply to teach in one for

their first job.

103

Source: Centre for Education and Inclusion Research and Division of Education and Humanities Sheffield Hallam University. 2009.

Not up for the challenge?

Only 1 in 10 teachers, and 1 in 8 head teachers, are considering

working in a school in challenging circumstances.

104

Source: Centre for Education and Inclusion Research and Division of Education and Humanities Sheffield Hallam University. 2009.

The status of teaching

Professionals Undergraduate

Social Worker 58 52

Nurse 57 51

Police Officer 47 45

Librarian 39 29

Pharmacist 20 19

Accountant 13 15

Engineer 12 7

Surveyor 12 8

Doctor 10 10

Solicitor 9 10

Vet 9 11

None of the above 8 13

Architect 6 5

Website Designer 5 6

Management Consultant

3 6

Surgeon 3 3

Barrister 3 4

The research question:

“Thinking about teachers compared to other professions, which of the following do you feel has a similar social status to teaching?”

105

Source: Freedman et al. Policy Exchange. 2008.

What degrees classifications do teachers have?

106

Source: Freedman et al. Policy Exchange. 2008.

Diversity in teaching?

9%

37%

0%

Independent

Grammar

Secondary modern

Comprehensive

Oxbridge graduates in teachingAll teachers

79%

4%

107

Source: Smithers and Tracey. Centre for Education and Employment Research. 2003.

We need to keep learning more about which of these

factors really matter for pupils.

But…

108

5. An attainment gap

is not inevitable

109

Here, each blue dot is a school.Who are the outliers? / What are they

doing?y = -0.2848x + 65.894

R2 = 0.2286

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

% of pupils living in the lowest 30% of the IDACI ranking

% 5

A*-

C G

CS

E (

E&

M)

110

Source: National Pupil Database and School Census information. 2010.

The cycle can be broken…

12 ‘outstanding’ schools serving disadvantaged communities…

111

Source: OFSTED. 2009.

We know their outstanding characteristics:

112


We know the features of schools that achieve, sustain and share excellence

113


We don’t yet know all the answers, but we know that things need to

change.

114

The next chapter starts here…

• Start debate…

115

116

Documents

One attainment gap: a million stories