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ONCE AGAIN: 10 YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS
Edsel L. Beja, Jr.
ATENEO DE MANILA UNIVERSITY
LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD
Economic Performance Before & After the Asian Crisis
Forensic Accounting: Cost of the Asian Crisis
LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD
Philip Tetlock (1996). Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Robert Fogel (2007). “Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations,” NBER WP No 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research
Lance Taylor and Codrina Rada (2007). “Can the Poor Countries Catch Up? Mixed Results from Extended Sources of Growth Projections for the Early 21st Century,” Metroeconomica 58(1): 127-154
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Crisis-affected Asian Economies
Data: World Development Indicators Asian Development Outlook
Figures are normalized to 1996
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: 1970-2007
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
PHILIPPINES
SOUTH KOREA
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
THAILAND
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: 1987-2007
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
South Korea
Malaysia
Indonesia
ThailandPhilippines
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: 1997-2007
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: 1987-2007
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
South Korea
Malaysia
Indonesia
ThailandPhilippines
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: 1987-2007
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
South Korea
Malaysia
Indonesia
ThailandPhilippines
Line A
Line B
ECONOMIC COST
ECONOMIC COST
Forensic Accounting: Asian Crisis
Data: World Development Indicators Asian Development Outlook
Trending
ECONOMIC COST: Indonesia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ECONOMIC COST: Malaysia
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ECONOMIC COST: Philippines
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ECONOMIC COST: South Korea
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ECONOMIC COST: Thailand
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ECONOMIC COST: Indonesia
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Foregone Output Opportunity Cost Accumulated Cost
ECONOMIC COST: Malaysia
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Foregone Output Opportunity Cost Accumulated Cost
ECONOMIC COST: Philippines
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Foregone Output Opportunity Cost Accumulated Cost
ECONOMIC COST: South Korea
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Foregone Output Opportunity Cost Accumulated Cost
ECONOMIC COST: Thailand
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Foregone Output Opportunity Cost Accumulated Cost
ECONOMIC COSTS
1997 2006 2007Indonesia $ 36.8B $ 89.7B $ 94.7B
[24%] [41%] [41%]Malaysia $ 13.1B $ 37.0B $ 39.0B
[17%] [31%] [31%]Philippines $ 9.8B $ 6.5B $ 6.6B
[ 6%] [ 7%] [ 6%]South Korea $ 62.1B $ 54.2B $ 52.3B
[14%] [ 8%] [ 7%]Thailand $ 39.6B $ 87.8B $ 95.1B
[35%] [53%] [55%]
LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD
ONCE AGAIN:
THANK YOU
LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD
Dynamic Expansion: Pull-up Growth Strategy Broad-based / Balanced / Sustainable Growth Role of Government: Take Steps to Realize
Robust Growth, thru Variety of Strategies Managing Intl Flows: “Supply” Side Issues
of International Finance and Trade Intl Intervention: Managing the Storm Intl Cooperation: Policies and Reforms
