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On-going research in support of science-policy interfacing -WG Climate Change & WFD
Looking into the future of water in a changing climate
(without a crystal ball)
Ana Iglesias, UPM, Spain, Strategic Coordination Group, EC, Brussels, 8 November 2011
2Source> Highnoon project
Wat
er D
irect
ors
Stra
tegi
c co
-ord
inati
on g
roup
CIS-SPI
Art. 21 Com-
mittee
WG A Ecological status
JRC, DE, UK
WG E Chemical aspects
EC, JRC, IT, FR, SE
WG D ReportingEC, EEA, FR
WG C Groundwater
EC, AT
WG F FloodsEC, IE
WFD and Agriculture
FR, UK
Climate change and WFD
DE, ECWater scarcity and drought
IT, FR, ES
Stak
ehol
ders
, NG
O’s,
Res
earc
hers
, Exp
erts
, etc
.
Established working groups
Temporary working groups
6
climate and CO2 changes
water availability
land productivity
technology
development
population
trade, pricesuncertainty discount rate
A view of the problem from the academic side
Research questions about
the future
Knowledge needed
Support to policy
Models, Impacts,
forecasting
Adaptive capacity
Adaptation and policy
7
How can water deal with an uncertain future?
How does vulnerability and disparities respond to this uncertain future?
How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks?
Global projections of water availability (EU, Med)
Regional adaptive capacity index values and drivers of inequality
Assessment and strategy planning process, RBMP
Research questions about
the future
Knowledge needed
Support to policy
Models, Impacts,
forecasting
Adaptive capacity
Adaptation and policy
8
How can water deal with an uncertain future?
How does vulnerability and disparities respond to this uncertain future?
How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks?
12 projects provide policy
support
WASSERMedHIGHNOON
enviroGRIDS
12
Agreement on the problem … limited policy assessment
13…. and the world
14
“Knowing is not enough; we must apply.Willing is not enough; we must do.”
Goethe (1749-1832)
151 issue: how?
natural water resources
regulation infrastructure
water availability
non-conventionalresources
Policy
nature non-nature uses
water recycling
Policy
essentialproductivePolicy
Policy
16
A: Demand manag
B: Supply manag: regulation
C: Supply manag: additional resources (i.e., water re-use)
D: Demand manag: efficiency manag, communication and education
B, D
B
A
A, C, D
Change (A2-control) in mean annual runoff
Change (A2-control) in water availability guarantying
unrestricted urban demand
Effect of policy measures on supply management on water
availability (A2 scenario)
Effect of policy measures on demand management on water
availability (A2 scenario)
19
Irrigation water demand change (% of baseline) to adapt food production to climate change
0 2 10 20 30 80
A1B_av
E1_av
Ada
ptiv
e ca
paci
ty
ImpactsVery negative(more than -30%)
Very positive(more than +30%)
None(AC = 0)
Very high(AC = 1)
no risk
lowvery high
high medium
potential risk (a synthesis)
low medium high or very high
1 key issue can climate change science provide insights about the future of water availability?
3 assertions– Understanding uncertainty is useful for facing
water availability challenges– Understanding and reducing vulnerability does
not demand accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change
– It is politically difficult to justify vulnerability reduction on economic grounds
22
thank you
Presentation made at the:CIS-SPI Brainstorming meeting ,
Brussels, 7 November 2011
23