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WMO’S ROLE IN

DISASTER MITIGATION AND RESPONSE

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIESby

M.Jarraud

Secretary-General

World Meteorological Organization

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El NiñoEl Niño

Weather, water and climate-related hazards

Hail&LightningHail&Lightning

AvalanchesAvalanchesFlash floodsFlash floods

TornadoesTornadoes

Wildland firesWildland fires& haze& haze

Hot & cold spellsHot & cold spells

Heavy precipitationsHeavy precipitations(rain or snow)(rain or snow)

DroughtsDroughts

Storm surgesStorm surges

Storm (winds)Storm (winds)

River basin floodingRiver basin flooding

Mud & landslidesMud & landslides

Ice StormsIce Storms

Tropical cyclonesTropical cyclones

Dust stormsDust storms

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Global distribution of natural hazards (1993-2002)

Avalanches and landslides

6%

Droughts and famines

9%

Earthquakes8%

Extreme Temperatures

5%

Floods37%

Forest/scrub fires5%

Windstorms28%

Volcanic eruptions

2%

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Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002)

Africa21%

Americas20%

Asia42%

Europe14%

Oceania3%

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Distribution of people killed (1993-2002)

High human development

2%

Medium human

development32%

Low human development

66%

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Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002)

0 20 40 60 80 100

1

2

3

1- Damage (US$billion) 2- Number affected 3- Number killed

Hydrometeorological disasters Geophysical disasters

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Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1970s 1980s 1990s

Nb of reporteddisasters

Nb reported killed(thousands)

Nb reported affected(millions)

Damage (billions US$)

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Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts

In 2100 half of the world population will be under water stress

Subtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased desertification

Tropical zones: Increased health risks

High latitudes: permafrost decrease

Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions

Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars per year (Munich Re)

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International Framework

ISDR succeeded IDNDR

ProVention

Several significant Declarations, Agendas and ConventionsMillennium Declaration

UNFCCC (climate change)

UNCCD (desertification)

Freshwater Agenda

World Summit on Sustainable Development

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Role of WMO in disaster management

Response

Recovery

Mitigation

Prevention

Preparedness

Monitoring

Forecast and early warnings

Vulnerability analysis and risk assessment

Applications (agriculture, water resources, etc)

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WMO’s contribution to natural disaster mitigation and reduction

Adopting a framework for guidance and monitoring of disaster reduction

Risk identification

Knowledge management

Risk management applications

Preparedness and emergency management

Governance support

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Risk Identification

Monitoring

Early warnings for weather water or climate

related disasters

Adaptation measures

Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis

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Risk Identification: monitoring (1)

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Risk Identification: monitoring (2)

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Risk Identification: monitoring (3)

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Risk Identification: monitoring (4)

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Risk Identification: monitoring (5)

900 Argo floats in operation by mid-2003. By 2005, some 3 000 floats are planned.

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Risk Identification: Early warnings (1)

Ensemble Pred. tools

120 h

96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h

Global models

Limited Area models

Nowcasting tools

Global models

L.A. models

EPS, Probabilities

Warnings Activities

Nowcasting

Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)

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GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS

Risk Identification: Early warnings (2)

Strike probability (within 65 nm) of

Typhoon Rusa over the next 120 hours.

Starting time of the forecast is 27

August 2002 12 UTC.

Full dots give the observed position over the period 27

August to 1 September 2002

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Risk Identification: Early warnings (3)

Observational data are needed for the study of climate variability and issue of warnings for climate-related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in advance if adequate climate predictions are available

Regular assessments and authoritative statements on climate variability

Climate alert system for early warnings on pending significant climate anomalies

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Risk Identification: Early warnings (4)

WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies

Regional Climate Outlook – important development for evaluation of seasonal forecasts

Forums have become regular meetings in some regions, where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for regional and local use

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Risk Identification: Adaptation measures

Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to weather events and climate change.

Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate and disaster reduction communities to the implementation of measures as environmental planning, data and information pooling, improved observation systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.

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Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment

Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess different vulnerabilities.

A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with flood disaster databases with the support of WMO through the World Climate Programme as part of the activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

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Risk Identification: Hazard analysis

Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities.

Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning.

WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue and Climate Database Management Projects.

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Knowledge Management (1)

Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation)

Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information

WMO’s World Weather Research Programme - support to cooperative international research projects and experiments (e.g. THORPEX)- translate research findings into policy and operational actions for high impact weather phenomena

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Knowledge Management (2)

User education and awareness are essential:

to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics

to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended users

to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness

to enable emergency management authorities to make well-informed decisions

WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings

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Risk Management Applications (1)

The Associated Programme on Flood Management Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management across sectors

Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop community approaches to flood management.

Application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities in flood management

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Risk Management Applications (2)

WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme

Provides guidance on the development of support systems for

sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning with

the active participation of the Commission for Agricultural

Meteorology.

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Preparedness and emergency management

Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction

Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels

WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning

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Governance Support

Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management.

Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources.

Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in national disaster management plans.

WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority action by the Governments.

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Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1)

Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003)

Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in international disaster reduction activities concerning mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of meteorological or hydrological origin

Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a crosscutting programme to enhance international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities

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Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2)

To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response to the requirements and needs of Members and international community concerning disaster reduction in light of related developments

To encourage and assist Members in developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully integrated manner, especially in coordination with national civil defence/disaster coordination offices

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Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3)

To ensure that activities and results of relevant WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of the WMO’s participation in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of the leading international organizations dealing with disaster reduction, in particular through active participation in high-level global fora and related activities

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International Framework (1)

Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countries

Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity

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International Framework (2)

ISDR succeeded IDNDR

Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions:

Millennium Declaration

UNFCCC (climate change)

UNCCD (desertification)

Freshwater Agenda

World Summit on Sustainable Development

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Conclusions (1)Need for an integrated approach

National and regional levels

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Cooperation across disciplines and agencies

Links with academic community

International level

Between IGOs and NGOs concerned

Capacity building and transfer of technology activities

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Conclusions (2)Need for an integrated approach

In multiple domains observations communications data processing (incl NWP)…

Accross disciplines

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