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7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
Question No 7 : C"ase#ood $partments%%%%
Semester
1 7&2 2'1
2 6&( 22)
( 6&7 252
4 7&0 265
5 6&' 270
6 6&4 240
7 7&1 2))
) 6&7 246
FORECASTING MODEL
*e!t semester enrolments e!pected 6&6
a& +,67&2()!-1'6&() 247&('0) 247
b&
2,0&'27 '2&7.
UniversitEnro!ments
"t#ous$n%s&
No' o( unitsLe$se%
/sin eression uation #e can nd t"enumber o3 apartments leased + 3or 6&6ke!pected enrolments
2 e!plains t"e ariation in + #&r&t& to ariation in + #&r&t& ariationin !& alue 0&058 "ence t"e model is accurate and not random
6&2 6&4 6&6 6&) 7&00
50
100
150
200
250
(00
(50
39!: , 67&2()421'554! - 1'6&()07)'022(; , 0&'270(50)04
*o& o3 units
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
=ariation. in t"e Model 7&(0.
=ariation in *o o3 units 1)&0(1 )*+, units
$ctual units leased can ar+ 3rom 22-*2./ units
c&
>ence t"e 3orecastin model #ill predictupto '2&7. t"e output
?"e model is uite accurate #it" saure,0&'27 and alue0&05& >e is also no# a#are t"at "e "as su@cient (00 unitsAmore t"an ma! 265 reuired in t"e rane and t"ere #ill not bean+ s"ortae&>ence t"e model can be use3ul 3or t"e Manaer to estimate t"eno o3 units to be kept read+ 3or lease and associated #orksinoled&
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
B/MM$
RegressioMultiple
Buare
$dDusted
Btandard
Obseratio
$*O=$
eression
esidual?otal
Intercept
/niersit+
sa+
7&2 7&4
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
O/?/?
Statistics0&'62)27
0&'270(5
0&'14)74
6&57415)
)
d SS MS F gnicance F
1 (2'4&6)( (2'4&6)( 76&2(1( 0&000125
6 25'&(17( 4(&21'557 (554
oefcient andard Err t Stat P-value ower 95%!!er 95%ower 95"# !!er 95"#
-1'6&()0) 52&(2264 -(&75(266 0&00'47( -(24&40'7 -6)&(51' -(24&40'7 -6)&(51'
67&2()42 7&701066 )&7(1054 0&000125 4)&('45' )6&0)225 4)&('45' )6&0)225
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
Q- $ !$r0e #e$!t# m$int or0$nis$tion "1MO&
$& Deve!o3 $ movin0 $ver$0e (ore$st (or t#e 3$st +5 mont#s
Mont# No o( L$9suits A62mont#s1 16
2 25
( 16
4 24
5 ()
6 46
7 54
) 52
' 51
10 5611 67
12 45
1( 5(
14 61
15 55 57&0
16 6' 5)&0
17 6( 62&0
1) 57 66&0
1' 4) 60&0
20 55 5(&021 61 52&0
22 51 5)&0
2( 56 56&0
24 5( 54&0
;#i# A6 resu!ts in t#e me$n $so!ute (ore$stin0 error
A62mont#s
Mont# No o( L$9suits 3orecast
15 55 57&0
16 6' 5)&0
17 6( 62&0
1) 57 66&0
1' 4) 60&0
20 55 52&5
21 61 51&5
22 51 5)&0
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
2( 56 56&0
24 5( 5(&5
total absolute deiation
mean absolute deiation
$,6mont"s results in lo#est 3orecastin error as M$E is least co
>ence t"is $,2 is recommended as 3orecastin #ill be more accu
Usin0 our reommen%e% (ore$st'
FOC$B?I*G FO MO*?> 25 WI
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
"Mont# +/*24& (or A62848. $n% ,
3orecasts
A64mont#s A6.mont#s A6,mont#s
57&0 56&0 55&0
54&0 57&0 55&0
60&0 5'&0 5)&0
62&0 5)&0 5'&0
61&0 60&0 5'&0
60&0 5'&0 57&056&0 5)&0 5)&0
56&0 5'&0 5'&0
54&0 56&0 5)&0
56&0 55&0 5)&0
A64mont#s A6.mont#s A6,mont#s
abs deiation 3orecast abs deiation 3orecast abs deiati 3orecast
2&0 56&5 1&5 55&5 0&5 54&'
11&0 5(&5 15&5 56&2 12&) 55&0
1&0 5'&5 (&5 5)&( 4&7 57&1
'&0 62&0 5&0 57&7 0&7 5)&6
12&0 61&0 1(&0 5'&7 11&7 5)&)
2&5 5'&( 4&( 5)&) (&) 56&4
'&5 55&) 5&( 57&) (&2 57&6
7&0 55&( 4&( 5)&) 7&) 5)&6
1 2 ( 4 5 6 7 )0
10
20
(0
40
50
60
70
)0
*o o3
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
0&0 5(&) 2&( 55&) 0&2 57&4
0&5 55&) 2&) 54&7 1&7 57&5
/4'/ /7'< 47'5
/'/ /'7 4'7
pared to ot"er $ps& 92A4A):
ateA deiation #ill be least 3rom t"e actual outcomeA so t"at Cind+ is better prepare
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
abs deiation
0&1
14&0
5&'
1&6
10&)
1&4
(&4
7&6
' 10 11 12 1( 14 15 16 17 1) 1' 20 21 22 2( 24
C"art ?itle
,2mont"s $,4mont"s $,6mont"s $,)mont"s
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
1&4
4&5
/5'.
/'+
7/25/2019 om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise.xlsx
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om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual !ercise
Ques no +