OIL-IN-THE-SEA2002

OIL-IN-THE-SEA2002

PRESENT & FUTURE PREDICTIONS

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

STATEMENT OF TASKS:STATEMENT OF TASKS:

1. UPDATE 1975 & 1985 REPORTS

2. REVIEW FUTURE PETROLEUM RESERVES & CONSUMPTION

24080160 2000200600Natural Seeps

AVERAGE ANNUAL RELEASES of PETROLEUM

4.32.33.0 622038Extraction of Petroleum

Transportation of Petroleum

117.49.1 260120150

Consumption of Petroleum

20001984 6000130480

2300110260 83004701300TOTAL

WorldwideNorth AmericaMax.Min.Best Est.Max.Min.Best est.

EXISTING STATUS OF RESERVESEXISTING STATUS OF RESERVES

TRENDS IN PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTIONTRENDS IN PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION

WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

60 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

YEAR

(mil

lio

ns

bb

l/d

ay)

Production

Consumption

From: Davis, 2000

U.S. OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

60 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

YEAR

(mil

lio

ns

bb

ls/d

ay)

Production

Consumption

From: Davis, 2000

FUTURE TRENDS – OIL & GASFUTURE TRENDS – OIL & GAS

ENERGY CONSUMPTION & IMPORTS

• IN NEXT 20 YEARS, U.S. OIL CONSUMPTION INCREASE BY33% AND NATURAL GAS BY 50%

• PRODUCTION IN U.S., CANADA, SOUTH AMERICA, EUROPE

AND AFRICA WILL BE DEPLETED IN 50 YEARS

• U.S. IMPORTS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY IN NEXT 50 YRS.

• IRAQ, SAUDI ARABIA, UAE, KUWAIT, & KAZAKHSTAN

HAS RESERVES FOR NEXT CENTURY

LESS THAN 10 YEARS 10 TO 50 YEARS

United States ChinaCanada Nigeria*

United Kingdom AlgeriaIndonesia* Columbia

Norway OmanEgypt India

Argentina Qatar*Australia RomaniaEcuador Yemen

Brunei

50 TO 100 YEARS MORE THAN 100 YEARS

Saudi Arabia Iraq*Russia United Arab Republics*

Iran* Kuwait*Venezuela* Kazakhstan

Mexico TurmenistanLibya* TunisiaBrazil Uzebekistan

AzerbaijanTrinidad (World's Remaining Oil in 75 Years)

OIL SUSTAINABILITY - CURRENT RATE OF PRODUCTION

Is the U.S. destined to remain dependent onMiddle East oil for the next 50 decades?

Is the U.S. destined to remain dependent onMiddle East oil for the next 50 decades?

GAS HYDRATE SAMPLEGAS HYDRATE SAMPLE

GAS HYDRATE HILL IN GULF OF MEXICOGAS HYDRATE HILL IN GULF OF MEXICO

WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTIONOF GAS HYDRATES

WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTIONOF GAS HYDRATES

164

200000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Tri

llio

n C

ub

ic F

eet

US Natural Gas US Methane Hydrates

If only 1% of reserves recovered – 2,000 tcf

NEXT FIVE DECADES

• ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN US WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE

• U.S. MUST ACCELERATE RESEARCH ON GAS HYDRATES

• PRODUCTION IN US WILL DECLINE & BE DEPLETED

• MORE MARITIME TRAFFIC – INCREASE CHANCE OF SPILLS

• IMPORTS TO NORTH AMERICA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE

• PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON POLLUTION FROM COASTAL

FACILITIES WILL INCREASE

• POLLUTION FROM O&G OPERATIONS WILL DECREASE

• TO REDUCE PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON POLLUTION, NEW

REGULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE PUT INTO PLACE TO

CURB URBAN RUNOFF

• NATURAL SEEPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN SOURCE OF

POLLUTION