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Meeting the World’s Demand for Liquid Fuels
A Roundtable DiscussionA New Climate For Energy
EIA 2009 Energy Conference
April 7, 2009Washington, DC
2
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Qua
drill
ion
Btu Liquids
Natural GasCoal
Renewables
Nuclear
History Projections
Source: EIA, IEO2008
36%
23%
6%
8%
29%
33%
24%
8%
6%
27%
3
World Liquids Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2015 2030
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
Building Industrial Transportation Electric Power
Source: EIA, IEO2008
4
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ligh
t Sw
eet C
rude
Oil
(200
7 $/
B)
Reference CaseHigh World Oil PriceLow World Oil Price
World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases, AEO2009 – Real Prices
History Projections
Source: EIA, AEO2009, NYMEX
$130
$200
$50
Closing price on April 3, 2009
5
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Reference CaseLow World Oil PriceHigh World Oil Price
World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, AEO2009
History Projections
Source: EIA, AEO2009
105
89
119
86
2008
6
NOCs Increasing Control over the World’s Oil and Gas Reserves
1970
85%
14%
1%
Source: PFC Energy, Oil & Gas Journal, BP Statistical Review
2009
65%
12%8%15%
Full IOC Access
Full IOC Access
Reserves Held by Russian Companies
NOC Reserves(Equity Access)
(Limited Equity Access)NOC Reserves
(Limited Equity Access)
NOC Reserves
SOVIETReserves
7
Liquids Supply in 2030
Low Price Case
3%7%
45%45%
2007
40%
4%1%
55%
High Price Case
1%18%
30%
51%
Source: EIA, AEO2009
Reference Case
1% 11%
40%48%
OPEC Conventional
Non-OPEC UnconventionalOPEC Unconventional
Non-OPEC Conventional
8
World’s Liquid Fuels Supply
Source: EIA, AEO2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mill
ion
Barr
els
per D
ay
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110Non-PetroleumUnconventionalLiquidsNon-OPECUnconventionalPetroleum ProjectsNon-OPECUnconventionalPetroleum LiquidsOPEC UnconventionalPetroleum Liquids
Non-OPECConventional Projects
OPEC ConventionalProjects
Non-OPEC ExistingConventional
OPEC ExistingConventional
AEO2009 ReferenceTotal Consumption
43
Unidentified Projects
9
Top 15 Liquids Producers and Their Prospects
Source: EIA, AEO2009
Russia
United States
Mexico
Canada
Kuwait
Norway
Nigeria
Brazil
Algeria Saudi Arabia
ChinaIranUAE
Venezuela
Iraq
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,00
0
12,00
0
Current Liquids Production ('000 b/d)
Cha
nge
in T
otal
Liq
uids
Pro
duct
ion
from
200
7 to
201
5 ('0
00 b
/d)
10
Top 15 Liquids Producers and Their Prospects
Source: EIA, AEO2009
Russia
United States
Saudi Arabia
ChinaIran
Mexico
Canada
United Arab Emirates
Venezuela
Kuwait
Norway
Nigeria
Brazil
Algeria
Iraq
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,00
0
12,00
0
Current Liquids Production ('000 b/d)
Cha
nge
in T
otal
Liq
uids
Pro
duct
ion
from
201
5 to
203
0 ('0
00 b
/d)
11
Costs of Production by Resource
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Resources (billion barrels)
Prod
uctio
n C
ost (
dolla
rs -
2008
)
Produced MENA
Other Conventional
Oil
CO
2 - EOR
EOR
Deepwater and ultra
deepwater
Arctic Heavy oil
and bitumen
Oilshales Gas
to liquids
Coalto liquids
Source: International Energy Agency, IEA
12
Additional Slides
• Country Sheets
13
United States
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Onshore fields might not be as responsive to EOR as
currently expected• Independent E&P companies may not have access to
capital in the near-term
• Legislation could open to development more currently restricted areas
• Legislation on climate change could provide additional incentives to use CO2 for EOR
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
2007 Oil Production by Company
-500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
Other
Chevro
nCono
coPhilli
ps
Exxon
Mobil
Occiden
tal
Anadark
o
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Global Insight, September 2008
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
14
Saudi Arabia
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Production could be cut to support world oil prices• Kingdom could abandon commitment to spare capacity
and high production levels• Field decline rates could accelerate
• Production could be expanded to discourage alternatives
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
Saudi Aramco Chevron
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
15
Russia
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• High levels of taxation could remain in place• Exploration in eastern Siberia and offshore could fall
due to concerns about nationalization • Levels of investment could remain low.
• Future changes in taxation policies could have large impact and encourage investment
• Small firms could rebound faster than expected from financial crisis
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Rosneft
LUKoil
TNK-BP
Surgutne
ftegaz
Tatneft
Gaz
prom
Private
Inve
stors
Other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
16
Brazil
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Changes to licensing and bid round structure could be
severe enough to discourage some foreign investors• Subsalt potential could be less than expected• Unexpected technical difficulties could slow production
of subsalt resources
• Changes to licensing and bid round structure could work to facilitate investment and joint development
• Subsalt potential could be much larger than expected
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Petrobras Shell Repsol YPF Other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
17
Canada
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Current conventional decline rates could accelerate• Environmental legislation (in Canada or the U.S.) could
limit bitumen production
• Decline rates at conventional fields might be slowed• Bitumen extraction technology could continue to
improve
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Total Drilling WTI PriceSource: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Conventional Liquids BitumenSource: EIA, AEO2009
2007 Oil Production by Company
-200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
Oth
er
Sync
rude
Sunc
orEn
ergy
Impe
rial O
il
Hus
kyEn
ergy
Petr
o-C
anad
a
Shel
l
Can
adia
nN
atur
alR
esou
rces
EnC
ana
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Global Insight, 2009
Domestic
IOCForeign NOC
18
Algeria
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Government could further discourage foreign
investment, as it did with the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law• Sonatrach’s ability to invest in production maintenance
and expansion could be hindered due to competing government expenditure needs
• Government could reverse nationalization tendencies expressed in the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Total Drilling WTI PriceSource: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0100200300400500600700800900
Sonatrac
h
Cepsa
Eni Anad
arko
Maers
k Oil &
Gas
Sinopec
Cono
coPhilli
ps
Other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
19
Nigeria
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Violence in the Delta could continue and expand into
deepwater locations• Financial management at NNPC could deteriorate
further
• Nigerian government might implement policies that reduce violence in the Delta
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
NNPC Shell
Mobil Pro
ducing N
igeria
Chevro
n Exx
onMobil Total
Eni
Addax
Conoco
Phillips
NPDC
Continen
tal O
il Stat
oilHyd
ro
Other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
20
Kuwait
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• KPC’s technical ability to maintain and expand
production could be hindered by politically motivated management changes
• Political disagreements could prevent Project Kuwait from achieving expected progress
• Political disagreements could settle and allow Project Kuwait to move forward
• KPC technical capabilities could return to previous levels
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC)
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Total Drilling WTI PriceSource: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
21
Iraq
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Violence could escalate as U.S. troops withdraw• Legislation and licensing issues between national
government and Kurdistan regional government could inhibit large scale foreign investment
• Security could continue to improve• National and Kurdistan regional governments could
reach agreement on licensing and jointly encourage foreign investment
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Total Drilling WTI PriceSource: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
South Oil (SOC) North Oil (NOC) DNO KurdistanRegional
Government
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
22
Iran
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Domestic consumer gas needs reduce gas volumes for
EOR• NIOC management and performance issues could
escalate and cause production from existing fields to decline faster than expected
• Domestic gas production could increase, allowing more EOR
• NIOC investment and development capabilities could improve and/or financial terms for international companies could improve
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
Nat
iona
lIra
nian
Oil
Com
pany
Shel
l
Eni
Petr
oira
nD
evel
opm
ent
Com
pany
JJI S
&N
Tota
l
Oth
er
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOC
Foreign NOC
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Total Drilling WTI PriceSource: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
23
Venezuela
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Nationalization tendencies could continue• Foreign investment could continue to be discouraged
either directly through government actions or indirectly through threats of nationalization and instability
• E&P investment could become more limited due to non-sector expenditures
• Confidence in contract stability might be repaired, encouraging renewed foreign investment
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
2008 Oil Production by Company
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
PDVSA Chev
ron
Total
BP
Petrobras
Energ
ía Stat
oilHyd
ro
Shell
Other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Conventional Liquids Extra-HeavySource: EIA, AEO2009
24
UAE
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Government could refuse to renew concessions and
place additional pressure on ADNOC to achieve production goals without IOC participation
• Government could renew concessions upon expiry or enable different structure encouraging IOC participation
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
ADNOC Exx
onMobil
Total
BP
Shell
Other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOC
Foreign NOC
25
Mexico
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Government may be unable to adopt legislation to allow
foreign technology to be implemented• Deepwater GOM resources could be much lower than
anticipated
• Government could adopt legislation that allows foreign technology to be implemented
• GOM resources might higher than expected
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Pemex
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC
26
China
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Declines at major mature fields could accelerate• Offshore developments could prove insufficient to
compensate for onshore declines
• Offshore boundary issues might be resolved • Offshore resources might prove more significant than
currently thought
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2006 Oil Production by Company
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
CNPC Sinopec CNOOC other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: PFC NOC Service, 2009
Domestic NOC
IOC
Foreign NOC
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
27
Norway
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Decline rates at major fields could accelerate• Smaller finds could be unable to compensate for
declines at existing large fields
• Government’s licensing terms could continue to encourage investment despite competition from other promising offshore developments
• A significant number of small finds could be capable of offsetting some of decline in existing fields
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dril
ling
Inde
x to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0123456789
10111213
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2006 Oil Production by Company
-
100200
300
400
500600
700
Petoro
AS
Statoil A
SANorsk
Hyd
ro A
SAExx
on M
obil Corp
TOTAL SACono
coPhilli
ps
Other
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
per
day
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC