OFFSHORE MARKET REPORT NORWAY - Rystad Energy · PDF fileThe Offshore Market Report Norway is a combined top-down and bottom-up review ... Topside and Processing Equipment ... Inspection

Offshore Market Report Norway

O F F S H O R E M A R K E T R E P O R T N O R W A Y Introduct ion mater ia l

Offshore Market Report Norway 2

Total spending 1985-2020 and company market shares for: • 11 oil service segments level 1 • 50 oil service segments level 2 • 150 oil service segments level 3

The Offshore Market Report Norway is a combined top-down and bottom-up review

Top-down sources

• SSB*: Quarterly investments • NPD: capex and opex (RNB**) per field • Rystad Energy UCube: Forecasting

production, capex and opex based on bottom-up field by field review

*SSB = Statistics Norway (Statistisk Sentralbyrå) ** RNB = The Revised National Budget (Revidert nasjonalbudsjett) *** We present bottom up figures for groups, e.g Aker Solutions consists of several legal companies, but is here presented as the group Aker Solutions

Bottom-up sources • Brønnøysund Register:

P&L for about 1200 legal companies***. Estimates when no Norwegian affiliate

• Company information Rystad interview with management for

split Company reports Business intelligence

• Field information Rystad interview with operators Conferences and other industry research

• Rystad Energy UCube: Forecasting production, capex and opex based on bottom-up field by field review

++

1. 2.

• Define segments • Match different sources • Distribute cost to segments • Field studies • International analogous • Calibration bottom-up vs. top-down

3.


Offshore Market in Norway – definition and overview 2013

Source: SSB; NPD; Rystad Energy research and analysis * We include all purchases within offshore market segments, except office (property, IT, telecom…) and commodities (fuel, power) and purchases/investments done outside Norway (e.g. hull from Korea to rigs).

Total cost for oil and gas companies in

Norway, 2013: NOK 303 billion

Capex in Norway • Exploration • Field development • Brownfield • Pipelines and onshore

terminals • Offices in Norway Reported as “Investments” or “Capex” in license budgets to NPD/RNB and SSB.

Opex and non-op in Norway • Fields/licenses • Pipelines and onshore

terminals tariffs • General costs • Costs for license awards • Taxes and fees • Salaries

Offshore market in Norway, 2013: NOK

319 billion

Not part of offshore market: Salaries, CO2 tax, injection gas

and tariffs

302

250

Offshore market in Norway from Oil companies’ point of view, i.e. market for direct

suppliers

Suppliers’ purchases:

Sub-contracting made by suppliers

in Norway*

This includes purchases done by suppliers in Norway. We include all purchases within offshore market segments, except office (property, IT, telecom…) and commodities (fuel, power)

319 69

Capex Capex

Opex, genex and non-op

Opex, genex and non-op

52

3


36,5

88,9

193,5

2013 NCS offshore market overview

* Field development includes new export pipelines ** Field operation includes operations of export pipelines, onshore terminals and office construction *** Opex includes here Non-op (purchases of seismic and G&G in connection with regional and lease round work, outside license cost) Source: Rystad Energy UCube; Rystad Energy DCube; Statistics Norway; Rystad Energy research and analysis

4

Tariffs, income and petroleum taxes

Oil companies

BNOK 1.1

Salaries and other internal

REVENUE AND FINACING

TAXES AND TARIFFS

Field development*

Market for direct suppliers Capex and Opex***

250 BNOK Market for sub-suppliers Suppliers’ purchases

69 BNOK

BNOK 29.3

BNOK 38.4

35.4

59.6

155.1

Offshore Market in Norway 319 BNOK

Capex Opex Suppliers’ purchases


Oil Service Segment definitions – Level 1 and 2

Source: Rystad Energy

Maintenance Services

Operational and Professional Services

Engineering

Procurement, Construction and Installation

Well Service

Drilling Tools and Commodities

Rigs and Drilling Contractors

Topside and Processing Equipment

Subsea Equipment and Installation

Transportation and Logistics

Seismic and G&G

Segment level 1 and 2 Segment level 2 and 3

Why have we chosen this particular segment definition? In defining the segments we have made a balancing act between several aims: - Easy to remember and give overview - Sufficient detail to be specific and allow data gathering - Sufficient generality to allow company benchmarking and global comparison - Industry jargon if possible - Relevant both for suppliers` market research and oil companies’ procurement analysis For inspiration, we have looked at segment definitions from Achilles (800 product oriented segments), SSBs (40 categories), INTSOK (16 segments) and others. However, our segment definition is genuine and made for the purpose of this report.

Automation and Electro MaintenanceInspection and Maintenance

Metal, pipes and valvesShip and Rig Repair

Government and OrganizationsISO

Operational ServicesProfessional Services

Support ServicesDetailed Engineering

FEED and StudiesOther Engineering and Project Management Services

Subsea EngineeringHull/Structure Construction

Offshore Construction ServicesOnshore Infrastructure Construction

Topside ConstructionArtificial Lift Services

Drilling ServicesWellbore Completion and Re-entry Services

Wireline and Geoscience ServicesCasing and Tubing Steel (OCTG)

Drilling FluidsDrilling Tools

Specialty ChemicalsJack-ups/barges

Platform Drilling ServicesSemi/Drillship

Well Management ServicesBuilding Components

CablesDrilling Rig Equipment

Electro, Instruments, Control and Telecom EquipmentFire and gas detection and prevention

Maritime EquipmentMaterial Handling Equipment

Processing EquipmentRotating Equipment

Subsea EquipmentSubsea Services

SURFTrunkline Construction

Base and LogisticsPetroleum Aviation

VesselsG&G Services

G&G SoftwareG&G Surveys

MultiClient Seismic SalesSeismic Data Processing

Seismic Sales

5


Oil Service Segment definitions – Level 1, 2 and 3


Control Room, Tele and IO MaintenanceElectro and Power System Maintenance

Instruments and Measurement MaintenanceInspection

MMO frame agreementsOffshore maintenanceOnshore maintenance

Metal and pipe welding and cuttingPiping Steel

Valve ServicesValves

Ship and Rig RepairGovernmental organizations

Media and EventsNon-governmental organizations

Access and ScaffoldingInsulation/Passive Fire Protection

Other Fabric Maintenance ServicesSurface Treatment and Painting

Field Operation ServicesFiscal metering Services

FPSO RentalPower Supply ServicesStorage vessel Rental

TeleCommunication and IO ServicesCertification and Integrity Services

Financial and Insurance ServicesLegal Services

Management ConsultingMeteorological Services

Product Design and AnalysisR&D Services

Safety, Health and Environment ServicesTechnical work force/operational support

Catering, Cleaning, Security ServicesComputers and Business Software

Offshore Accomodation ServicesOnshore Accomodation Services

Real Estate ServicesDetailed Engineering Hull/Deck

Detailed Engineering Topside/ModulesFEED and Studies

Engineering workforce and servicesOther Engineering and Project Management Services

Subsea Engineering

Auto

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Hull/Structure ConstructionOffshore Loading Equipment/Turrets

Decommissioning and Abandonment ServicesHeavy Lift

Hook-up, systems testingMooring and floater installations

Onshore Hook-up and System TestingOnshore Infrastructure Construction

Onshore Office ConstructionLiving Quarter Module Construction

Module Construction BrownfieldModule Construction Greenfield

Module Support Frames and Deck ConstructionOffshore Aluminium and Helidecks

Electrical Submersible PumpsGas Lift Systems

Directional Drilling ServicesMud Services

MWD and LWD systemsOther Drilling Services

Well Production TestingCasing, Tubing and Liner running Services

Cement ServicesFishing Services

Other Well Completion ServicesPacker Systems and Plugs

Plugging, well wash, gravel packing and other well servicesRe-Entry and thru-tubing Services

Sand ScreensSubsurface Safety systems and Flow Control

Cased Hole WirelineCoring and other well G&G Services

Geoscience Consulting Open Hole Wireline

Casing and Tubing Steel (OCTG)Cement

FuelMud

Waste Management and water disposalBlowout Preventers

Downhole Drilling ToolsDrill Bits

Drill Pipe, jars and collarsCompletion Fluids and Additives

Corrosion, hydrate and paraffin inhibitorsH

ull/

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Cons

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Off

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6


Oil Service Segment definitions – Level 1, 2 and 3


Jack-ups/barges

Platform Drilling Services

Semi/Drillship

Well Management Services

Building Materials and Furniture

HVAC Systems and equipment

Lighting and Heating

Cables

Drilling Rig Equipment

Control Room and Automation Equipment

Electrical Equipment - other

Electrical Equipment - Transformers, Rectifiers, Converters

Instruments

Telecommunication and IO Equipment

Fire and gas detection and prevention

Maritime Equipment

Cranes, Winches, Spoolers and Lifts

Other Material Handling Equipment (Trucks, feeders, packing..)

Chemical Injection Systems

Heaters and heat transfer equipment

Separators and Gas treatment

Tanks and Columns

Compressors

Generators and Transformers

Motors and Turbines

Power Generators

Pumps

Control Systems

Other Subsea Tools

Subsea testing, tool pool and other subsea services

Templates and Manifolds

Trees and Wellheads

Flow assurance Services

IMR (Subsea Inspec, Maint, Repair (ROV+Diving))

Pipeline Systems

Risers

Subsea Installation

Umbilicals

Trunkline Construction

Jac k- ups

/ba

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Plat for

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Dril

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Se mi/

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Containers and speciality equipments

Supply Base Operations

Petroleum Aviation

Anchor Handling Vessels

Crew Vessels

Other Vessels

Shipping Equipment and Marine Technology

Supply Vessels

Surveying, Positioning and Oceanographic Services

Field G&G Services

Field G&G Studies

G&G and Petrophysical interpretation Services

Reservoir Management Services

Geology and Seismic Software

Reservoir Modelling and Simulation

Well and Pipeline Flow Modelling

Geotechnical/Site Surveys

Gravity and Magnetic Services

2D MultiClient Seismic Sales

3D MultiClient Seismic Sales

Seismic Data Processing

2D Contract Seismic

3D Contract Seismic

4C Contract Seismic

4D Contract Seismic

Electromagnetic Seismic Services

Land Seismic

Base

and

Lo

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Petr

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7


Report structure ideal for organizations of different size to tailor make their own report

Chapter 1: NCS offshore market history Chapter 2: NCS offshore market forecast Chapter 3: Maintenance services Chapter 4: Operational and professional services Chapter 5: Engineering Chapter 6: Procurement, construction and installation Chapter 7: Topside and processing equipment Chapter 8: Well services Chapter 9: Drilling tools and commodities Chapter 10: Rig and drilling contractors Chapter 11: Subsea equipment and installation Chapter 12: Transportation and logistics Chapter 13: Seismic and G&G Chapter 14: NCS field by field platform review

Basic Section: Chapter 1: NCS offshore market history Chapter 2: NCS offshore market forecast + 1 chapter free of choice

Chapter overview

Tailor make a report ideal for your organization

Ideal for smaller companies active in single segment

Basic Section + additional chapters

Ideal for larger service companies active in several segment and banks/investor houses

Chapter 1-2: NCS macro: Unique insight in the historic and future development of exploration activity, cost development, production and investment levels split in (~40 pages) Chapter 3-13: Segment by segment review 2010 market on level 3, forecasts on level 2 to 2020, detailed player overview with 2010 revenue (10-20 pages per segment) Chapter 14: NCS field by field platform review Facts and figures on all installations at the NCS, recently performed large modification and upcoming modification projects (~55 pages)



Property of Rystad Energy

Offshore market 2013 (excl. onshore terminals), split by area, operator and facility type

Source: Rystad Energy UCube; Rystad Energy research and analysis

28

Area-split Operator split Facility split

Facility Category Share 2013

Steel platform 27,9 %

Subsea tie back 26,7 %

Concrete GB 14,9 %

FPSO 10,5 %

Semi 8,9 %

Fixed and floater 6,8 %

TLP 3,8 %

Extended reach 0,4 %

Spar 0,2 %

Operator Share 2013Statoil 59,8 %ConocoPhillips 10,9 %Shell 5,0 %BP 4,2 %Lundin Petroleum 3,8 %Total 2,9 %ExxonMobil 2,8 %Talisman Energy 2,1 %Marathon Oil 2,1 %BG 1,8 %Eni 1,7 %Det norske oljeselskap 1,2 %GDF SUEZ 1,1 %Wintershall 0,3 %DONG 0,1 %Other 0,2 %

Area Share 2013Tampen Area 23,6 %Ekofisk Area 14,2 %Aasgard Area 9,8 %Troll Area 9,1 %Grane Area 8,4 %Sleipner Area 5,9 %Oseberg Area 5,6 %Norne Area 5,0 %Ormen Lange Area 3,4 %Draugen Area 2,8 %Frigg Area 2,8 %Hild Area 2,7 %Ula Area 1,6 %Goliat Area 1,6 %Snohvit Area 1,6 %Other 1,9 %



2013 field cost (capex and opex excl. onshore infrastructure), by top 80 field/licenses

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis based on NPD field level numbers for capex and opex. Exploration capex in licenses not included in NPD statistics; source is Rystad Energy UCube

29

2013 field/license opex and capex, by cost typeNOK million nominal

12 58911 531

11 16411 128

8 7748 205

7 6797 666

7 5066 9706 949

6 5016 083

5 9055 497

5 3245 313

4 9054 760

4 6794 332

4 1274 097

4 0274 020

3 9123 856

3 7533 7153 706

3 4753 475

3 3143 1823 156

3 0732 867

2 7912 757

2 482

Gullfaks SouthTroll OilEkofisk

Troll East (Gas)Aasgard

Ormen LangeGoliat

Ekofisk SouthGullfaks

ValemonStatfjord

Edvard GriegSnorre

Eldfisk IIOseberg

ValhallSkuld

GudrunBalder/Ringhorne

DraugenMartin Linge

Oseberg SouthAasgard LP

VolveKnarr

KvitebjornHeidrunVisundGrane

TyrihansVigdisNorneSkarv

EldfiskVarg

BrynhildGjoa

SleipnerSnohvit Phase 1

Ivar Aasen

Exploration capexDevelopment capexWell capexMMO and expansion capexSubsea brownfield capexOpexAbandonement cost

2 4762 469

2 4072 355

1 8321 822

1 7681 577

1 5211 487

1 3981 344

1 2401 2211 211

1 1811 1361 1311 128

1 0541 049

1 0161 006994989985

932929918905

830791789762757754746745744717

KristinValhall IOR

16/2-6 (Johan…NjordGyda

UrdAlvheim

BoylaVeslefrikk6406/9-3…

16/2-6 (Johan…Other…Brage

Visund SouthHeimdal

VegaOseberg East

Other…Jotun

PL529SvalinPL457

ViljeFram

35/9-7 (Skarfjell)Tordis

7225/3-1…Gina Krog…

Visund North16/4-6S (Luno…Total_Norway

7120/1-3…Ula

PL511MorvinMikkel

VolundJette

34/10-C-18 A6407/8-6…



Offshore market in Norway 2013, by oil service segments level 1 and 2

Source: SSB (Investment part); NPD (Opex part (RNB)); Brønnøysund (Company data as calibration); Rystad Energy (Research for distribution into sub-segments)

27

Offshore Market in Norway, by main segment and split by level 2NOK million Level 2 segments

0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000

Seismic and G&G




Well Service




Engineering



Automation and Electro MaintenanceInspection and MaintenanceMetal, pipes and valvesShip and Rig RepairGovernment and OrganizationsISOOperational ServicesProfessional ServicesSupport ServicesDetailed EngineeringFEED and StudiesOther Engineering and Project Management ServicesSubsea EngineeringHull/Structure ConstructionOffshore Construction ServicesOnshore Infrastructure ConstructionTopside ConstructionBuilding ComponentsCablesDrilling Rig EquipmentElectro, Instruments, Control and Telecom EquipmentFire and gas detection and preventionMaritime EquipmentMaterial Handling EquipmentProcessing EquipmentRotating EquipmentJack-ups/bargesPlatform Drilling ServicesSemi/DrillshipWell Management ServicesArtificial Lift ServicesDrilling ServicesWellbore Completion and Re-entry ServicesWireline and Geoscience ServicesCasing and Tubing Steel (OCTG)Drilling FluidsDrilling ToolsSpecialty ChemicalsSubsea EquipmentSubsea ServicesSURFTrunkline ConstructionBase and LogisticsPetroleum AviationVesselsG&G ServicesG&G SoftwareG&G SurveysMultiClient Seismic SalesSeismic Data ProcessingSeismic Sales



Share of spend, by context and asset type, 1985-2013

Sources: SSB; NPD; Rig rate overview; Rystad Energy

Selected observations: • Recent years:

- 60% investments - 15-20% operating expenses- ~20% supplier expenses

Selected observations: • Fields in operations stabilized at ~55% since 2006• Fields under development down from 56% in 1998 to 16% of total

spend in 2004 – increasing up to 30% in 2010’s• Exploration up from 4% in 2003 and 2004 to 14% of total in 2009

and staying above 10% since• Onshore terminals peaked above 15% in early 2000’s, steadily

decreased towards 2-5% in 2010’s

By purchase contexpercent

By main asset typepercent

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013Capex OpexSuppliers purchases Non OpGenex

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Exploration Fields under development Fields in operationPipes under development Pipes in operation Office constructionOnshore Terminals

19

Chapter 1: NCS offshore market history

Introduction with observations and comments on the NCS historical development



Market observations and trends

* Note: Deviates from SSB figures at 209 as SSB figures contains internal spend. Source: Rystad Energy; SSB

Topic Summary and impact

History review of Offshore Market

Double digit growth last three years, slowdown in growth expected in 2014- 2010-2011: 19% Driven by fields under dev. (+47% from 43 to 63 bn) and fields in op. (+15% from 117 to 134 bn)- 2011-2012: 17% Driven by fields under dev. (+27% from 63 to 80 bn) and fields in op. (+19% from 134 to 159 bn)- 2012-2013: 14% Driven particular by exploration (+25% from 33 to 41 bn) and fields under dev. (+13% from 83 to 94 bn)- 2013-2014[E]: 6% Growth expected to cool down for exploration and fields in operations while fields under development expected to

continue strong growth as field development activity expected to peak (for now) in 2014.2013 market ended up at 319 billion NOK; Investments at 198 bn*, opex at 52 bn and suppliers expenditures at 69 bn.

Segment review

All time high investments in fields under development: - Capex (including internal spend) in fields under development has increased from the bottom point of NOK 18 bn in 2004 to 80 bn in 2013.

This represent an annual growth of 19%.- Due to this, the growth has been particularly strong the following segments: Engineering; Procurement, construction and installation;

Topside and processing equipment and Subsea equipment and installation.

Exploration levels at all time high – indications of slowdown going forward: - Due to higher oil price, good exploration results and two governmental initiatives - APA (awards in predefined areas) and cash back (78%

of exploration expenses reimbursed following year), exploration investments have increased from 4 bn in 2004 to 37 bn in 2013 – an annual growth of 27%. 2014 looks to end at or below 2013 levels, setting the scene for lower exploration levels going forward (see ch. 2)

- This growth is mainly reflected in the well related segments Well services, Drilling tools and commodities and Rigs and drilling contractors in addition to Transportation and logistics.

Fields in operation is the largest segment with respect to investments, also with an all time high investment level in 2013:- Fields in operation has seen a less aggressive growth than the two discussed above, however also a double digit annual growth from

2004 to 2013 with 13%: from 60 bn in 2004 to 181 bn in 2013.- This growth is reflected across all segments, but is most linked to brownfield segments such as Maintenance services and Operational

and professional services.

Exploration

2013 slightly below exploration trend, but with all time high number of wildcats, 2014 looks to be saved by Alta:- 2010: 36 wildcats, 10 appraisals. 827 mmboe discovered resources- 2011: 35 wildcats, 17 appraisals. 2882 mmboe discovered resources (Note: Norvarg removed – relinquished)- 2012: 26 wildcats, 17 appraisals. 1026 mmboe discovered resources- 2013: 44 wildcats (all time high), 14 appraisals. 738 mmboe discovered resources- 2014 level expected to be slightly lower than 2013, with YTD results below recent years success rate: 361 mmboe discovered resources

before Alta well (Lundin) from discoveries like; Pil (VNG), Drivis (Statoil) and Valemon Nord (Statoil). Alta well announced Oct. 14 with a range of 125-400 mmboe, possibly reaching above 700 mmboe with several wells still to be drilled.

14

Detailed overview of historical E&P spending; Yearly and quarterly statistics broken down in several multiple ways:



Offshore market in Norway 2004 - Q4** 2014, quarterly, by context

* See introduction for description of context; ** Q3 and Q4 estimates for capex from SSB (reported by oil companies)Source: Rystad Energy based on SSB and NPD; Note: Suppliers purchase estimated, and includes construction of drilling rigs in Norway (11 in 1970s, 1 in 1984, 2 in 2008)

Total Offshore Market in NorwayNOK million nominal

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

1-04 3-04 1-05 3-05 1-06 3-06 1-07 3-07 1-08 3-08 1-09 3-09 1-10 3-10 1-11 3-11 1-12 3-12 1-13 3-13 1-14 3-14

Genex

Non Op

Suppliers purchases

Opex

Capex

16

[E**]



Offshore market in Norway 1985-2013, by asset type

Source: Rystad Energy, primarily based on SSB

Total Offshore Market in Norway, by asset typeNOK million nominal

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Onshore Terminals

Office construction

Pipes in operation

Pipes under development

Fields in operation

Fields under development

Exploration

18 Offshore Market Report Norway


Offshore market in Norway 1985 – 2013, by main oil service segment

Source: Rystad Energy based on SSB and industry research

22

Offshore Market in NorwayNOK million nominal

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013



Engineering




Well Service




Seismic and G&G

i) Category (opex, capex,..)

ii) Asset type (exploration, development,…)

iii) Oil service segment

Well-by-well overview of exploration results since 2000




Source: Rystad Energy based on SSB and industry research

Offshore Market in Norway NOK million nominal

10

Main Oil Service Segments:

Example: Offshore market in Norway 1985 – 2013, split by 11 main oil service segments

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013



Engineering




Well Service




Seismic and G&G




0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Undiscovered, Open acreageUndiscovered awardedDiscovery (1970s)Discovery (1980s)Discovery (1990s)Discovery (2000s)Discovery (2010s)AppraisingField evaluationUnder developmentProducing earlyProducing 25-50%Producing 50%-75%Producing >75%Producing (Refinery Gains)Abandoned

NCS production forecast by life cycle

Note: Currently uncommercial volumes not includedSource: Rystad Energy UCube

55

Production by lifecycleThousand boe/d

Life cycle



Updates and changes


47


NCS Production forecast

The profiles have been updated according to the latest version of Rystad Energy UCube, including all recent discoveries and appraisals. Changes since last report limited to minor fields with limited effect on overall level

Offshore Market forecast

2014 level with insignificant change since last version of this report (Q2). The 2015-level has been taken down with 7% to reflect a- Slowdown in the brownfield market: Very few new modification projects awarded over the last year- Lowered expectations for exploration: SSB estimates for exploration in 2015 is down 9% from 2014 levels, and the rig count is down as

discussed above. The forecast has also been adjusted down in both the medium and long term to reflect the negative trends as discussed in the beginning of this chapter: Aggregated levels for 2016-2019 are adjusted down with 11%, and 2020 down with 6%.

Important changes in segment forecasts:- Maintenance Services + Operational and Professional Services: The two segments most affected by the day-to-day activity level has

been adjusted down to reflect the lowered activity as indicated by the top players within MMO and ISS. Aggregated level 2015-2020 adjusted down by 5%

- Engineering + Procurement, Construction and Installation: The effect of delayed and cancelled projects like Hod and Valhall wellhead platforms results in a declining EPCI market from 2016 to 2019, with annual estimates adjusted down with an average of 11% from 2017-2019.

- Topside and Processing Equipment: 2014 level unchanged, but 2015 estimate is struck hard with the coupling of low modification activity and sunk capex for several of the ongoing field developments. 2015 adjusted down 19% compared to Q2 forecast and 2016-2019 levels adjusted down with an average of 10% with a slow uptake in modifications and lack of new greenfield projects.

- Well Service + Drilling Tools and Commodities + Rigs and Drilling Contractors: Additional rigs taken out of the market (suspended/cancelled contracts) contribute to a somewhat lower market than previously estimated.

- Subsea Equipment and Installation: The subsea market is reduced considerably in the time frame 2017-2019 with aggregated level down some 30% from Q2 version as field development activity is expected to be reduced with Statoil putting its breaks on. Overall, the market forecasts for Subsea Equipment and SURF show a more volatile development year to year, to account for the cyclical field development market.

Company reported figures Company revenue updated and now shows 2013 revenue fro most players. Expected 100% coverage in Q4 release.

Insight Insight 1: Analysis of previous Offshore Market forecasts by Rystad Energy

Chapter 2: NCS offshore market forecast

Introduction with observations and changes in the market forecast

Key topics discussed in media: A section discussing the hot topics in the media with implications for the market

i) Rigs being put on hold, ii) Lay-offs in oil service,…

i) Top 50 oil field service companies ii) International revenue , …

Production profiles 2000-2025 in different breakdowns

i) Life cycles

Market forecasts presented in different breakdowns



Key topics discussed in media Q3 2014 (1/3) – Statoil with overcapacity in NCS rig portfolio

* Day rate for original contract ending Aug 2014Source: Rystad Energy, offshore.no, offshoreenergytoday.com, statoil.com

44


Headline(s)Statoil ends Ocean Vanguard contract (In the news: June 2014)Statoil suspends Scarabeo 5 contract (In the news: July 2014)COSL Pioneer temporarily suspended (In the news: September 2014)

Summary of news articles

Over the last quarter, Statoil has suspended or cancelled a total of three rigs active on the NCS:

Ocean Vanguard, originally contracted until February 2015 with Statoil at 454 000 USD/day terminated from August 2014The 32 year old rig owned by Diamond Offshore was planned to drill for Statoil in UK in June 2014, before coming back to the NCS for the last period of the contract. Due to confidentiality terms in the contract with Diamond offshore, Statoil has not given any statement to why it terminated the contract. According to offshore.no, industry sources has claimed the contract was terminated due to i) excessive downtime, and ii) the rig does not have automated fire vents as required by the Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA). However, Diamond Offshore has an exemption to operate without automated fire vents on ocean Vanguard.

Scarabeo 5, contracted until 2017 with Statoil at 399 000 USD/day temporarily suspended (July 2014)Due to overcapacity in the rig portfolio, Statoil suspended the contract for Scarabeo 5 (14 years old) for the remainder of 2014 in July. It was drilling at Visund at the time. “We are planning for the rig to be in operation again after the turn of the year. (…)”, said Statoil’s Tore Aarreberg, rig procurement responsible .

COSL Pioneer, contracted until 2016 with Statoil at 320 000 USD/day* temporarily suspended (September 2014)Statoil stated in a press release September 17th: “Due to overcapacity in our rig portfolio, Statoil will lay up the COSL Pioneer rig in the fourth quarter of 2014.” “After a careful review of our drilling plan, we find it necessary to suspend COSL Pioneer for the time being,” says rig procurement responsible Tore Aarreberg.

Key segments affected Rig and drilling contractors, Well services and Drilling tools and commodities

Rystad Energy take away and expected market impact

Statoil reports that the change “(…) will have no impact on Statoil’s production targets or planned exploration activity on the NCS

We see a reduced rig demand in 2015 compared to 2014, primarily driven by lower willingness to explore, but also certain field-developments and infill drilling campaigns being pushed to the right. Current outlooks call for activity to pick up again into 2016 and beyond. However, the massive influx of rigs that the NCS have seen past years, and will see coming years (confirmed Songa andMaersk rigs with possible additions of speculative newbuilds such as North Sea Rigs, Stena, etc.) creates an oversupplied situation that will last for several years. 2014-levels in the Rig and drilling contractors segment is down by 4% compared to Q2, and 2020 levels are down by 14%. Well services and Drilling tools and commodities are both adjusted down with 1% in 2014, and 13% in 2020.



Market observations and trends (1/2)


48


PDO activity

PDO activity down in 2013, possible rebound in 2014/15- 2011: 12 PDOs approved: Hyme, Visund North, Vigdis Northeast, Stjerne, Vilje South, Brynhild, Knarr, Visund South, Valemon, Atla,

Ekofisk South and Eldfisk II- 2012: Seven PDOs approved: Skuld, Åsgard subsea compression, Jette, Edvard Grieg, Martin Linge, Bøyla and Svalin- 2013: Five PDOs approved: Aasta Hansteen, Ivar Aasen, Gina Krog, Fram H North and Oseberg Delta 2- 2014/15: 15 possible PDOs – several in danger of being delayed:

- Ten in the North Sea; Flyndre (approved March 2014), Johan Sverdup (already contract award for two jackets to Kværner) and Bream. Uncertain: Fulla and Krafla (possible area development), Gullfaks Rimfaksdalen, Skarfjell, Tommeliten Alpha, Astero, Mackerel and Alfa Sentral

- Four in the Norwegian Sea; Maria and Zidane (postponed from Oct. 2014). Uncertain: Fogelberg and Trestakk- One in the Barents Sea; Johan Castberg (most likely delayed to 2016 or 2017 as concept selection delayed to mid-2015)

Field development projects

Large pipeline of field development projects: Rystad Energy see a total of 11 fixed platforms (down 3), 3-7 Semi/FPSOs (up 2, note threewith start-up in 2021) and 12-40 subsea candidates (down 20-30) for first oil from 2014-2020. Key updates/observations:- Valemon looks to meat estimated start-up in Q4 2014. No impact on forecast- Goliat delayed. Rystad Energy has estimated start-up of Goliat late 2015, operator state mid 2015. No impact on forecast.- Ongoing field developments: Spend updated to reflect latest budget estimates (National budget released October 2014). Early indications

of possible delays from projects under construction in Asia not yet reflected in forecast.- Johan Sverdrup start-up remains unchanged with estimated start-up 2020- Yme redevelopment: Yme license partner Lotos has chosen to write down the value of the Yme field to zero. Possible new development

pushed out into the 2020’s (start-up 2020 in Q2). EPCI segments impacted.- Knarr start-up pushed into 2015. Limited impact on forecast as most capex is sunk.- Johan Castberg concept selection delayed until mid-2015 which will delay PDO submission and consequently start-up. Rystad Energy

with Castberg start-up to 2021, as in Q2. No impact on forecast.- Several subsea candidates pushed beyond 2020. Impact on subsea forecast.

New acreage

- APA2014 has been announced and the predefined area has been expanded by a total of 9 blocks. The area around Aasta Hansteen has been expanded by 6 blocks while the area west of Snøhvit has been expanded by 3 blocks. Licenses awards are expected early 2015 (Feb). 47 companies applied, down from 50 in APA 2013.

- Round 23 postponed with one year as described above. 160 blocks nominated by 40 companies; 140 in the Barents Sea, 20 in both the Norwegian Sea and North Sea. 86 blocks nominated by two or more companies.



Market observations and trends (2/2)


49


Modification market

As stated over the last year, Rystad Energy has seen a slowdown in the modification/brownfield market closing in. Having seeninvestments (capex excluding wells) in producing fields growing from 29 bn in 2010 to 49 bn in 2013, the market is now experiencing a cool down on short to medium term. SSB report estimates on 46 bn (down 6% from 2013) for 2014 and 32 bn for 2015 (down 31% from 2014E). The drops are in the same order as stated by SSB in Q2 with a smaller drop in 2014; Down 9% in 2014 and 31% in 2015. Thelatest figures from SSB are reflected in the updated forecast, however with a smaller drop in 2015 as discussed in the insight in the Q2 release of this report.

Earlier disappoint-ments in the Barents Sea now followed by another Lundinsuccess

- Following Statoil’s breakthrough in the Barents with the high impact discoveries Skrugard and Havis (later Johan Castberg), the exploration results in the surrounding area have been disappointing. Statoil released an exploration agenda for the Johan Castbergarea in 2013, including five prospects (Skavl, Drivis, Iskrystall, Nunatak and Kramsnø) . Skavl and Drivis resulted in small oil discoveries while the other three wells found small gas volumes. Statoil’s Pingvin and Isfjell exploration wells nearby failed to provide additional oil resources for a future Johan Castberg development.

- October 14, Lundin announced a discovery in the Alta well north east of the Gohta discovery. Early estimates indicate between 125-400 mmboe (88-314 oil). Current combined resource base for Gohta and Alta is up to 632 mmboe according to Lundin, and could support a stand alone field development. In comparison, the Goliat field currently under development holds 174 million barrels of oil.

NCS Rig market

All time high number of rigs on the NCS in 2013 – continued growth towards 2017 with Statoil challenging the market - Year end 2013: 38 active rigs during (34 in 2012, 31 in 2011)- 2015 [E]: The number of rigs is expected to grow to 42 within 2015 (all currently contracted. Note: 2 units leaving 2015 versus Q2

projections). - 2017 [E]: The number of rigs is expected to grow to 45+ within 2017 (32 with contract for NCS in 2017, 45 rigs at NCS assuming

renewals).

Quarterly insights: A section discussing topics related to recent research by Rystad Energy



Source: Companies’ annual reports as reported to Brønnøysund; Rystad Energy research and analysis

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Aker SolutionsSchlumberger

AibelKværner

Vard GroupSubsea 7

FMC TechnologiesTransoceanHalliburton

SeadrillBaker Hughes

National Oilwell VarcoTechnip

GE EnergyABB

MaerskRolls-Royce Marine

ArcherIKM Gruppen

WestconKleven Maritime

Fred Olsen EnergyOdfjell DrillingNorsea Group

Songa OffshoreKongsberg Gruppen

ApplyOceaneering

Cameron NorgeCOSL Drilling

As of the publication of this reportover 90 % of the companies coveredin this report have reported their2013 numbers, and the segmentchapters are updated to include 2013numbers for most companies.

The chart shows revenue for the 30largest companies with reported2013 figures ( by sum of 2012 and2013). Of the largest companies, onlyOneSubsea and Bilfinger have notyet reported their 2013 numbers. 23of the companies in the chart report agrowth in revenue while 7 report adecline, which support RystadEnergy’s view of continued growthfrom 2012 to 2013.

Especially the large EPC companiesAibel and Kværner Stord post largegrowth driven by large EPC projects.In the Subsea construction space,Technip and EMAS-AMC both reportdouble digit growth.

Aggregated 2013 numbers show arevenue growth of about 10%. Thisnumber is not expected to changesignificantly, as most companieshave now reported their 2013revenues.

Over 90 % of 2013-numbers now reported – shows 10 % growth from 2012 to 2013

NCS revenues for largest companies with 2013 reportingBillion NOK

52

20122013 higher2013 lower

285 313

2012 2013

Aggregated revenue for companies with 2013 reportingBillion NOK

Insight Q3 2014

+10%



0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Lotos (Petrobaltic)

Premier Oil

Suncor Energy

DONG

Refinery Gains

RWE

BG

Centrica Energy

Talisman Energy

Eni

Total

Lundin Petroleum

GDF SUEZ

Wintershall

ExxonMobil

Det norske oljeselskap

BP

Shell

ConocoPhillips

Statoil

NCS production forecast by operator


57

Production by operatorThousand boe/d

Operator (top 20)



NCS production forecast by province and area


59

Production by provinceThousand boe/d

Production by areaThousand boe/d

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

North Sea

Norwegian Sea

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Grane/Utsiraarea

Troll area

Oseberg areaSnøhvitarea

Aasgard area

ii) Operators

iii) Provinces,….

NCS Offshore Market forecast, by main oil service segment

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

2

Offshore Market by main segmentNOK million nominal

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020



Engineering




Well Service




Seismic and G&G

Oil Service SegmentNCS Offshore Market forecast, by life cycle

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

3

Lifecycle as of 2014

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Offshore Market by life cycleNOK million nominal


Example Q3 2014 (released October): Key topics discussed in media Q3 2014 (1/3) – Statoil with overcapacity in NCS rig portfolio

* Day rate for original contract ending Aug 2014 Source: Rystad Energy, offshore.no, offshoreenergytoday.com, statoil.com

12


Headline(s) Statoil ends Ocean Vanguard contract (In the news: June 2014) Statoil suspends Scarabeo 5 contract (In the news: July 2014) COSL Pioneer temporarily suspended (In the news: September 2014)

Summary of news articles

Over the last quarter, Statoil has suspended or cancelled a total of three rigs active on the NCS: Ocean Vanguard, originally contracted until February 2015 with Statoil at 454 000 USD/day terminated from August 2014 The 32 year old rig owned by Diamond Offshore was planned to drill for Statoil in UK in June 2014, before coming back to the NCS for the last period of the contract. Due to confidentiality terms in the contract with Diamond offshore, Statoil has not given any statement to why it terminated the contract. According to offshore.no, industry sources has claimed the contract was terminated due to i) excessive downtime, and ii) the rig does not have automated fire vents as required by the Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA). However, Diamond Offshore has an exemption to operate without automated fire vents on ocean Vanguard. Scarabeo 5, contracted until 2017 with Statoil at 399 000 USD/day temporarily suspended (July 2014) Due to overcapacity in the rig portfolio, Statoil suspended the contract for Scarabeo 5 (14 years old) for the remainder of 2014 in July. It was drilling at Visund at the time. “We are planning for the rig to be in operation again after the turn of the year. (…)”, said Statoil’s Tore Aarreberg, rig procurement responsible . COSL Pioneer, contracted until 2016 with Statoil at 320 000 USD/day* temporarily suspended (September 2014) Statoil stated in a press release September 17th: “Due to overcapacity in our rig portfolio, Statoil will lay up the COSL Pioneer rig in the fourth quarter of 2014.” “After a careful review of our drilling plan, we find it necessary to suspend COSL Pioneer for the time being,” says rig procurement responsible Tore Aarreberg.

Key segments affected Rig and drilling contractors, Well services and Drilling tools and commodities

Rystad Energy take away and expected market impact

Statoil reports that the change “(…) will have no impact on Statoil’s production targets or planned exploration activity on the NCS We see a reduced rig demand in 2015 compared to 2014, primarily driven by lower willingness to explore, but also certain field-developments and infill drilling campaigns being pushed to the right. Current outlooks call for activity to pick up again into 2016 and beyond. However, the massive influx of rigs that the NCS have seen past years, and will see coming years (confirmed Songa and Maersk rigs with possible additions of speculative newbuilds such as North Sea Rigs, Stena, etc.) creates an oversupplied situation that will last for several years. 2014-levels in the Rig and drilling contractors segment is down by 4% compared to Q2, and 2020 levels are down by 14%. Well services and Drilling tools and commodities are both adjusted down with 1% in 2014, and 13% in 2020.

http://www.offshore.no/sak/61469_statoil_avbryter_riggkontrakt

http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/statoil-suspends-scarabeo-5-contract/









http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2014/Pages/17Sep_Rig_allocations.aspx

http://issuu.com/offshoremediagroup/docs/offshoreboken-2014/36




Operational and Professional Services revenue 2013, split by segment level 2 (1/7)

Note: 2012 figures where 2013 figures not availableSource: Company information, public sources, Rystad Energy research

1

RevenueNOK million

Government and Organizations ISS Operational Services

Professional Services

Support Services

Share of main segment

Other Oil and Gas in Norway Other Revenue Grand Total

- 2 222 - - - 8,4 % 188 1 489 3 899- 1 718 - - - 6,5 % 166 43 1 927

- - - 1 182 62 4,7 % - 13 990 15 234 - - - - 981 3,7 % - 109 1 090

- 949 - - - 3,6 % 282 - 1 231 - - - - 829 3,1 % - 32 861 - - - - 680 2,6 % - - 680

- - - 664 - 2,5 % 226 868 1 758 - - - - 630 2,4 % - - 630

- - - - 560 2,1 % 2 590 - 3 150- - 478 - - 1,8 % - 1 082 1 560

- - - 461 - 1,7 % 143 196 800 - 46 29 368 - 1,7 % 2 442 682 3 567

- - - 402 28 1,6 % 443 290 1 163- - - 390 - 1,5 % 1 169 - 1 559

- - - - 382 1,4 % - - 382 - - - 360 - 1,4 % 242 - 601

- 339 - - - 1,3 % 365 18 723 - - 331 - - 1,2 % - - 331

- 300 - - - 1,1 % - 17 317 - - - 292 - 1,1 % - - 292

- - - 282 - 1,1 % 13 146 441 - - - 277 - 1,0 % - 206 483

- - - - 266 1,0 % - 621 886 - 256 - - - 1,0 % - 85 341

- - - 254 - 1,0 % 117 6 377- 246 - - - 0,9 % - 12 075 12 321- - - 233 - 0,9 % 189 537 959- - - 214 - 0,8 % 28 90 331- - - 210 - 0,8 % - 103 313

- 209 - - - 0,8 % - 52 261- - - 202 - 0,8 % 122 157 481



1

RevenueNOK million



Support Services



- 2 222 - - - 8,4 % 188 1 489 3 899- 1 718 - - - 6,5 % 166 43 1 927

- - - 1 182 62 4,7 % - 13 990 15 234 - - - - 981 3,7 % - 109 1 090

- 949 - - - 3,6 % 282 - 1 231 - - - - 829 3,1 % - 32 861 - - - - 680 2,6 % - - 680

- - - 664 - 2,5 % 226 868 1 758 - - - - 630 2,4 % - - 630

- - - - 560 2,1 % 2 590 - 3 150- - 478 - - 1,8 % - 1 082 1 560

- - - 461 - 1,7 % 143 196 800 - 46 29 368 - 1,7 % 2 442 682 3 567

- - - 402 28 1,6 % 443 290 1 163- - - 390 - 1,5 % 1 169 - 1 559

- - - - 382 1,4 % - - 382 - - - 360 - 1,4 % 242 - 601

- 339 - - - 1,3 % 365 18 723 - - 331 - - 1,2 % - - 331

- 300 - - - 1,1 % - 17 317 - - - 292 - 1,1 % - - 292

- - - 282 - 1,1 % 13 146 441 - - - 277 - 1,0 % - 206 483

- - - - 266 1,0 % - 621 886 - 256 - - - 1,0 % - 85 341

- - - 254 - 1,0 % 117 6 377- 246 - - - 0,9 % - 12 075 12 321- - - 233 - 0,9 % 189 537 959- - - 214 - 0,8 % 28 90 331- - - 210 - 0,8 % - 103 313

- 209 - - - 0,8 % - 52 261- - - 202 - 0,8 % 122 157 481



1

RevenueNOK million



Support Services



- 2 222 - - - 8,4 % 188 1 489 3 899- 1 718 - - - 6,5 % 166 43 1 927

- - - 1 182 62 4,7 % - 13 990 15 234 - - - - 981 3,7 % - 109 1 090

- 949 - - - 3,6 % 282 - 1 231 - - - - 829 3,1 % - 32 861 - - - - 680 2,6 % - - 680

- - - 664 - 2,5 % 226 868 1 758 - - - - 630 2,4 % - - 630

- - - - 560 2,1 % 2 590 - 3 150- - 478 - - 1,8 % - 1 082 1 560

- - - 461 - 1,7 % 143 196 800 - 46 29 368 - 1,7 % 2 442 682 3 567

- - - 402 28 1,6 % 443 290 1 163- - - 390 - 1,5 % 1 169 - 1 559

- - - - 382 1,4 % - - 382 - - - 360 - 1,4 % 242 - 601

- 339 - - - 1,3 % 365 18 723 - - 331 - - 1,2 % - - 331

- 300 - - - 1,1 % - 17 317 - - - 292 - 1,1 % - - 292

- - - 282 - 1,1 % 13 146 441 - - - 277 - 1,0 % - 206 483

- - - - 266 1,0 % - 621 886 - 256 - - - 1,0 % - 85 341

- - - 254 - 1,0 % 117 6 377- 246 - - - 0,9 % - 12 075 12 321- - - 233 - 0,9 % 189 537 959- - - 214 - 0,8 % 28 90 331- - - 210 - 0,8 % - 103 313

- 209 - - - 0,8 % - 52 261- - - 202 - 0,8 % 122 157 481



1

RevenueNOK million



Support Services



- 2 222 - - - 8,4 % 188 1 489 3 899- 1 718 - - - 6,5 % 166 43 1 927

- - - 1 182 62 4,7 % - 13 990 15 234 - - - - 981 3,7 % - 109 1 090

- 949 - - - 3,6 % 282 - 1 231 - - - - 829 3,1 % - 32 861 - - - - 680 2,6 % - - 680

- - - 664 - 2,5 % 226 868 1 758 - - - - 630 2,4 % - - 630

- - - - 560 2,1 % 2 590 - 3 150- - 478 - - 1,8 % - 1 082 1 560

- - - 461 - 1,7 % 143 196 800 - 46 29 368 - 1,7 % 2 442 682 3 567

- - - 402 28 1,6 % 443 290 1 163- - - 390 - 1,5 % 1 169 - 1 559

- - - - 382 1,4 % - - 382 - - - 360 - 1,4 % 242 - 601

- 339 - - - 1,3 % 365 18 723 - - 331 - - 1,2 % - - 331

- 300 - - - 1,1 % - 17 317 - - - 292 - 1,1 % - - 292

- - - 282 - 1,1 % 13 146 441 - - - 277 - 1,0 % - 206 483

- - - - 266 1,0 % - 621 886 - 256 - - - 1,0 % - 85 341

- - - 254 - 1,0 % 117 6 377- 246 - - - 0,9 % - 12 075 12 321- - - 233 - 0,9 % 189 537 959- - - 214 - 0,8 % 28 90 331- - - 210 - 0,8 % - 103 313

- 209 - - - 0,8 % - 52 261- - - 202 - 0,8 % 122 157 481



NCS Maintenance Services – Overview

68

Total revenue 201338 BNOK

59%41%

Oil companies(direct supplier)

Oil service(sub-supplier)

Distribution of customer types

Total number of active players256

Top 3 players (by revenue 2013)AibelAker SolutionsWestcon

Key market drivers

Age of platforms: Increasing age of platform on the NCS increase the need for maintenance services. Several of the platforms currently in operations are beyond their original estimated life time, and continuous maintenance and upgrades are needed to maintain the integrity. 0

10

20

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Selected contract awards since last release

Contract scope Supplier Buyer Deal value (MNOK)

SPS for Borgland Dolphin to be executed Q4 2014 Bergen Gr./Semco M. Dolphin Drilling 350

MMO FA, Valemon; Q2 2014-July 2016 + 2*2 option Apply Sørco Statoil 180

Valve main. Draugen/Nyhamna, -2019 + 2*2 option Oss-nor Shell 160

Average age of platforms on the NCSYears

Selected transactions since last release

Transaction summary Seller Buyer Deal value (MNOK)

AMOF and Fjell Technology to Merge Fjell Technology AS AMOF AS

Important changes since last release

• 2014 estimates have been adjusted down with 2.4%, and estimates for 2015 down by 10% due to the cutbacks across several segments and layoffs within MMO players due to low expected activity in the short term. Forecast is adjusted accordingly, however with 2019 and 2020 levels only 1-2% below the forecast in Q2.

Chapter 3-13: Segment by segment overview

Introduction to segment with key drivers and recent contract awards and company transactions

Player overview: Graphical and tabled of 2010 revenue for all active players in segment Ideal for company screening (acquisition), competitor analysis, analyzing market shares, etc.

Company deep dives on segment level 3 revenue for selected chapters

Historic development and forecast by level 2



NCS Maintenance Services, historic development

Source: Industry interviews; Rystad Energy research and analysis; Company information

69

Maintenance Services by segment level 2NOK million

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Ship and Rig Repair

Metal, pipes and valves

Inspection and Maintenance

Automation and ElectroMaintenance

Deep dive on most recent years by level 3



-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Inspection and Maintenance Metal, pipes and valves Ship and Rig Repair Automation and Electro Maintenance

Instruments and Measurement Maintenance

Electro and Power System Maintenance

Control Room, Tele and IO Maintenance

Ship and Rig Repair

Piping Steel

Valve Services

Valves

Machining and coating

Onshore maintenance

Offshore maintenance

Inspection

MMO frame agreements

NCS Maintenance Services, historic development by segment level 2 and 3

Source: Industry interviews; Rystad Energy research and analysis; Company information

73

Maintenance Services, split by level 2 and 3NOK million nominal



* Only companies where 2013 revenue is availableSource: Company information, public sources, Rystad Energy research

77

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000

Aibel Aker Solutions

Westcon Fabricom

IKM Gruppen Bergen Group

ABB Agility Group MRC Global

Apply Sverdrup Hanssen Spesialstål

Reinertsen Mento

Petrolvalves Kongsberg Gruppen

Oceaneering Linjebygg

GMC Group Bandak Group

Valco Group SFF group

Siemens SAR

Karsten Moholt Proserv

Albatross Services Aarbakke Group

Norwegian Piping TDW Offshore Services

Invensys PLC Vinje Industri

Nymo Bilfinger

WIS Gruppen Oss-Nor

CAN Semco Maritime

Fluid Control Multi Industrier

On & Offshore Holding Axess

Sønnico Storesund Marine

Eurotechnology BR Industrier

Euro Offshore Freudenberg Oil & Gas

AAK Honeywell Norge

Wepco

Automation and Electro Maintenance

Inspection and Maintenance

Metal, pipes and valves

Ship and Rig Repair

NCS Maintenance Services Revenue 2013 split by level 2NOK million

Change in revenue from 2012 to 2013*Percentage growth-30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Aibel Aker Solutions

Westcon Fabricom

IKM Gruppen Bergen Group

ABB Agility Group MRC Global

Apply Sverdrup Hanssen Spesialstål

Reinertsen Mento





Siemens SAR





Nymo Bilfinger

WIS Gruppen Oss-Nor

CAN Semco Maritime






AAK Honeywell Norge

Wepco

NCS Maintenance Services Revenue 2013 – top 50 players

2012 Figures



NCS Maintenance Services Revenue 2013 – all players

Source: Company information, public sources, Rystad Energy research

79

NCS Maintenance Services Revenue 2013 split by level 2 (Note: Different axes)NOK million

0 500 1 000 1 500 Aibel

Aker Solutions Westcon

Fabricom IKM Gruppen

Bergen Group ABB

Agility Group MRC Global

ApplySverdrup Hanssen …

Reinertsen Mento





Siemens SAR





Nymo Bilfinger

WIS Gruppen Oss-Nor

CAN Semco Maritime






AAK Honeywell Norge

Wepco

0 10 20 30 40 50 MBO

Unimek Teco Maritime Group

SGS Halvorsen

Applus Addtech Wärtsilä Promet

Acel Uvdal Maskinfabrikk

Prosessmetall Inspecta

Jansen og Willums… Ågotnes Sveis

Hymek Benor

Heinsa Mekaniske Certex Norge

Maritim Service Vest ventil

FLEKKEFJORD ELEKTRO JB Maskinering

Simplicity Ulmatec Nemko Rotork Simex

Noske Ventiler Bagges

Fjelde Mek Verksted Niras

Scandcon AS Regulator

OSWO Fmv

Well Innovation Tubedrill

OneSubsea Reins Maskinering

HTS Maskinteknikk Samson

West Elektro Tronrud Engineering

Sotra Contracting Teknisk Produksjon

Thune Produkter AS Delprodukt

Align

0 50 100 150 AGR

Langset PSW Group

Helgeland V&M Brattvåg Elektro

EagleBurgmann Norway NTOS

IK Stavanger Cameron Norge

North Well Gefro Rolf Lycke

Hermes Marine Service Voith

Delta Group Tratec

Flow Control Norway J S Cock

Haakon EllingsenEmerson Process M…

NLIKristiansands Skr… Slåttland Mek Ind…

GMV Score

Malm Orstad Scana Industrier

Rightech ConsultingFORCE Technology …

Petroleum Technol… Otic

Kværner Intermec

Sub Sea Services Furmanite

Stamas Gruppen Radøygruppen

Anlegg og Marine … Westcontrol

Maskinering Og Sv… Mikromekanikk

Kitron Fosstech

Pipetech Internat… Solid Offshore

K Lerøy Metallind… Quickflange

Stryvo Parker Hannifin

Ktn Rush Maskinering

0 5 10 15

Cosalt OffshoreMekanisk Service …

Goodtech Proweld

HS-Maskin Forus Elektro

ElmoMjøs Metallvarefa…

Os Maskinering Jæren Maskinering

TeamUp Automasjon TechPart Ekstrand

Tri tool Norge Metso

Ultra-Technology BEL Valves Norway

Grenland Mekaniske Norner

VTT maritimeHitec Products Dr…

Berget Mandal Maskinering

Levo Watech

Yokogawa Norge Norwegian Valve Group

Aasen Dreierverksted Miras

Axflow Jergo

T Bruvik Dameco

Raufoss Offshore Semek

Ship and Rig RepairMetal, Pipes and ValvesInspection and Maint.Automation and El. Maint

2012 Figures



NCS Metal, pipes and valves Revenue 2013 – all players


88

NCS Metal, pipes and valves Revenue 2013 split by level 3 (Note: Different axes)NOK million

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

MRC Global Sverdrup Hanssen Spesialstål

Mento Petrolvalves

IKM Gruppen Bandak Group


Proserv Aarbakke Group

Norwegian Piping WIS Gruppen

Oss-Nor Euro Offshore

Freudenberg Oil & Gas Wepco

Langset Fluid Control

EagleBurgmann Norway IK Stavanger

Cameron Norge Metso

North Well Gefro Rolf Lycke

Hermes Marine Service BR Industrier

Flow Control Norway J S Cock

Haakon Ellingsen Slåttland Mek Industri

Vinje Industri GMV

Score Malm Orstad

Petroleum Technology Company Kværner

NLI Intermec

Stamas Gruppen Kongsberg Gruppen

Westcontrol Maskinering Og Sveiseservice

Mikromekanikk Fosstech

K Lerøy Metallindustri Stryvo

Parker Hannifin Rush Maskinering

Oceaneering Unimek

Valves

Valve Services

Piping Steel

Machining and coating

0 10 20 30 40

Promet Scana Industrier

Uvdal Maskinfabrikk Prosessmetall

Heinsa Mekaniske Maritim Service

Vest ventil JB Maskinering

Simplicity Ulmatec

Noske Ventiler Bagges

Aker Solutions Fjelde Mek Verksted

Niras Rotork

AS Regulator OSWO

Fmv Well Innovation

Tubedrill Furmanite

Reins Maskinering HTS Maskinteknikk

Samson Tronrud Engineering

Sotra Contracting Teknisk Produksjon

Anlegg og Marine Service Thune Produkter

AS Delprodukt Mekanisk Service Halden

Halvorsen Ågotnes Sveis

Proweld HS-Maskin

Mjøs Metallvarefabrikk Os Maskinering

Jæren Maskinering TechPart Ekstrand

Tri tool Norge Ultra-Technology

BEL Valves Norway Grenland Mekaniske

Berget Mandal Maskinering

Lilaas Levo

Watech Norwegian Valve Group

2012 Figures

0 1 2 3 4

Aasen Dreierverksted Miras

Hymek Jergo

Dameco Raufoss Offshore

Ekro Semek

Cody Fjell Industries

Torgy Mek. Industri



0 1 000 2 000 Bilfinger

Beerenberg DNV GL

ESS Support Services Kaefer Energy

Sodexo Remote Sit… Master Marine

BOA Group Prosafe Offshore

COSL Drilling Telenor

Add Energy Group IKM Gruppen

Acona Omega

Norsk Offshore Ca… Ross Offshore

LinjebyggTeekay Petrojarl …

StS gruppen Falck Nutec

Axess OSM Group

G4S Secure Solutions Norisol Norge

Petrolink Jotun Sintef

Fosdalen IRIS

NSE Industry Langset

TS Group Harris Corp

Lloyd's Register Global Maritime

Norges Geoteknisk… Safetec Nordic

IFE Vinje Industri

Norconsult FMC Technologies

Norsea Group Solid Vedlikehold

Proactima AGR

Data Respons Intertek

Stillasgruppen

NCS Operational and Professional Services Revenue 2013 – top 200 players


101

NCS Operational and Professional Services Revenue 2013 split by level 2 (Note: Different axes)NOK million

0 5 10 15 20 Applus

IBM VEX-gruppen

Kunnskapsparken Nord ADB

KTV groupONS offshore Nort…

Senergy Tel-Tek

ITCKunnskapsparken H…

SafemarAalesund Oljekled… Offshore Simulato…

Front Group VisSim

Oil Infomation Idevekst Energi ODS-Petrodata

Aluhak Stillas Spesial Produkter Sør

Grip Maling Korro… Intelecom Promineo

Facilium Ceragon Networks

Real marine FIMAMEC Aquateam

RealGroup Norwater

EpsisBentley Systems S…

Petromedia C. Christoffersen

Ocean Riser SystemsScandinavian Oil-…

Nordan Consult Soludyne

Weldindustry Jotne Group

Haugaland HMS Aker Solutions

iSurveyAdvokatfirma DLA …

Thor Dahl BemanningsbyråetOljeindustriens K…

Fred. Olsen Produ…

0 50 100 150 CGI

HANSEN PROTECTION Bjellcon

Cerno HoldingFORCE Technology …

Engineering Consu… HERNIS Scan Systems

Centerpoint Software Innovation

Manpower IFS

JJS Prosjektpartner Tampnett

Marine Cybernetics Ressurspartner

Accpron Wikborg, Rein & CoAstrium Services …

Techconsult Hytech Personell

Hoover Container … Marine Installasjon

Xervon Seabrokers

Statech Offshore Media Group

Well Partner On & Offshore Holding

PSW Group SAP

Ship Modelling & … Servicegrossistene

Sharecat Karmsund Maritime

Industri MekanikkTrelleborg Offsho…

Westcon Bestra

Emerson Process M… Aveva

Hillevåg elektro … NetApp Corp

Herøya Industripark Unitech Power Systems

Resq NITO

Carboline Conventor

Båtservice Contra… Nosefo

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Vrs Installasjon

NOTECHHitec Products Dr…

Gard Orange Offshore

Verdande Technology Marin Teknikk

Odda Plast Møre Teknikk

MirasChristian Michels…

Schlumberger Mudenia Elektro

Pbs Intergraph Norge

INTSOK Rignet

MIDT NORSK STILLAS Lie Overflate Teknikk

NUIAdvokatfirmaet Se…

ExproSoft BR Industrier

GIEK Drager Safety Norge

ApplyInventas Produktd…

Skipsteknisk Logiteam

Slagen GruppenNorsk Gjenvinning…

3M Norge Pöyry Align

ASK Safety Baze Technology

Akzo Nobel Xait

Noreq Trac-ID Systems

StormgeoOilfield Technolo…

Teknologisk InstituttStord Offshore Co… Inmarsat Solutions

Geogroup Norkem

KongshavnSimonsen Advokatf… Norges Maritime U…

Support ServicesProfessional ServicesOperational ServicesISOGovernmental and Organizations

2012 Figures

Tabled view

Graphical view


Chapter 14 – platform by platform overview – Example: Southern North Sea, Valhall

Valhall Field Information

Platform FactsValhall PH (started production Jan 2013)Steel platform; Process and hotel (180); Installed 2012; Start-up: Jan 2013; Capacity: 120 kbbl/d; Topside weight: 11,85 kt; Base: Kværner; Deck: Heerema; Installation: Saipem; W. depth: 69mValhall PCPSteel platform; Process; Installed Dec 1981; Start-up: Oct 1982; Capacity: 168 kbbl/d; Topside weight: 13 kt; Base: McDermott; Deck: Aker Stord/Kvaerner Brug/Vigor; Installation: Heerema; W. depth: 69 mValhall WPWellhead Platform; Process; Installed May 1996; Start-up: May 1996; Capacity: 40 kbbl/d; Topside weight: 2 kt; Base: Heerema; Deck: Heerema; Installation: Heerema; W. depth: 69 mValhall IPSteel platform; Drilling; Installed Aug 2003; Start-up: Jan 2004; Topside weight: 10 kt; Base: Aker Verdal; Deck: Aker Stord; Installation: Saipem; W. depth: 69 mValhall DPSteel platform; Drilling; Installed Jan 1981; Start-up: Oct 1982; Topside weight: 7 kt; Base: Aker Verdal; Deck: Aker Verdal; Installation: McDermott/Heerema; W. depth: 69 mValhall QPSteel platform; Hotel(209); Installed Apr 1980; Start-up: Oct 1982; Topside weight: 3 kt; Base: Aker Stord; Deck: UIE/Sterkoder/Vigor; Installation: McDermott; W. depth: 69 mValhall Flanke NordWellhead Platform; Installed Jul 2003; Start-up: Jan 2004; Topside weight: 2 kt; Base: Heerema; Deck: Heerema; Installation: Heerema; W. depth: 69 mValhall Flanke SørWellhead Platform; Installed May 2003; Start-up: Fall 2003; Topside weight: 2 kt; Base: Heerema; Deck: Heerema; Installation: Heerema; W. depth: 69 m

Recent modification projectsAll Platforms• New subsea pipeline systems 2008• Late life redevelopment - new production and

accom. platform 2010-ongoing, Aker Solutions (NOK 450 mill)

• Water Handling, PorPure and NLI, 2010• HVAC, Apply Oil & Gas, 2011• Life of Field Seismic system – LoFS, Technip (NOK

50 mill)• Office modules, HB Rentals, 2010/11 (NOK 5 mill)• Gas lift modules at Valhall Flanke Nord and Valhall

Flanke Sør. New modules at Valhall WP (2009-2011) including Riser/ESDV facility.

• Electrification from shore from 2011

Recent redevelopment projects• Valhall PH (production and hotel) platform started

production January 2013. Part of Valhall redevelopment program with total development cost of BNOK 49,6 (+98,2% compared to original PDO estimate)

Upcoming modification projectsAll Platforms• Gas lift modules at Valhall Flanke Nord and Valhall

Flanke Sør. New modules at Valhall WP (2009-2011) including Riser/ESDV facility.

• Longer term, need wave protection/prolonge legs due to subsidence

• Modifications related to decommissioning and shut-down of old platforms

• Candidate for drilling facility upgrade• Candidate for gas treatment upgrade• Pumps, Eureka Pumps (Align), frame agreement with

BP for three years

Upcoming redevelopment projectsAll Platforms• PCP, QP and DP platforms decommissioned by 2020• "The Greater Valhall Programme" - possibly two new

platforms, drilling of 20 to 30 wells, 43 BNOK investments, includes investments at Ula

– New Wellhead Platform at Valhall: cancelled 2014– New process and living quarter platform at Valhall

(Valhall PH)– New platform at Hod: Cancelled 2014– Upgrades at Ula

• Maersk Reacher drilling contract renewed for drilling untill Q3 2016. In addition, new Jack-up ordered by Maersk for Valhall from Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering. Delivery 2016, value 3,8 BNOK.

Source: NPD; Company information; Rystad Energy research and analysis; Industry sources

1

Operator BPSupport org. StavangerMMO FA Aker SolutionsISO FA Bilfinger IndustrierOther FA Safety and autmation systems: ABBDrilling op. ArcherWells since 2005 42

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total OPEX 1015 1063 961 1505 2036Total CAPEX 6445 7781 7063 4866 6170


Documents

OFFSHORE MARKET REPORT NORWAY - Rystad Energy · PDF fileThe Offshore Market Report Norway is a combined top-down and bottom-up review ... Topside and Processing Equipment ... Inspection