OFFICE OF SCIENCE Energy Sources, Uses and Trends Teaching About Energy Teaching About Energy April...
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OFFICE OF SCIENCE Energy Sources, Uses and Trends Energy Sources, Uses and Trends Teaching About Energy Teaching About Energy April 2011 April 2011 Nicholas B. Woodward Nicholas B. Woodward Geosciences Research Program Geosciences Research Program Office of Basic Energy Sciences Office of Basic Energy Sciences
OFFICE OF SCIENCE Energy Sources, Uses and Trends Teaching About Energy Teaching About Energy April 2011 Nicholas B. Woodward Geosciences Research Program
OFFICE OF SCIENCE Energy Sources, Uses and Trends Teaching
About Energy Teaching About Energy April 2011 Nicholas B. Woodward
Geosciences Research Program Office of Basic Energy Sciences
Slide 2
2 What Kind of Energy? Transportation Light Heat Other ? Where?
Why?
Slide 3
3 Energy Objectives? Energy Security: Issues Domestic Coal;
Significant hydrocarbon imports; Uranium? Answers Hybrid Vehicles,
Coal to Liquids, Oil/Tar Sands Environmental Quality: Pollution
Control Issues Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act Answers NG fired
power plants, CAF standards, Hybrid Vehicles, Zero Emissions
Vehicles Climate Change Issues Greenhouse Gas
Emissions/Decarbonation Answers Non-Greenhouse gas emitting power,
Zero Emission Vehicles Industrial Approach over 40 Years Efficiency
pollution/emissions not created need not be cleaned up or have cost
penalties.
Slide 4
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1990-2035 ( quadrillion
Btu) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html 250 200 150 100 50
0 History Projections Liquids Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear
1990 2000 2007 2015 20252035 ~ 500 Quads total
Slide 5
World Oil Consumption 2009
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/world-oil-consumption-001.jpg
Thousands of barrels a day China 8,625 Total World 84,077 US 18,686
Japan 4,396 Russia 2,695
Slide 6
6 Recoverable Resource Depends on Price Energy-Reserve
Revisions, Dec 16th, 2008, by John Donovan THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
John Donovan Falling Oil, Natural-Gas Prices Render Certain Proved
Stockpiles as Uneconomic Many companies will likely be forced to
declare that big chunks of their oil and gas reserves are
uneconomic. That could have wide-ranging implications for oil
companies, which need to show increasing reserves to attract
investors and, in some cases, to serve as collateral on loans. Oil
and gas producers must report annually the size of their proved
reserves that is, how much oil and gas they believe they can
produce from the fields they control. Under securities rules, they
can include only oil that can be produced economically a
calculation based on oil and gas prices at the end of their year,
usually Dec. 31.
Slide 7
U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads)
At midcentury, the U.S. used 1/3 of the primary energy used today
and with greater overall efficiency ~ 34 Quads of Energy 12 TV, no
interstate system ~50% Efficiency
Slide 8
8 8 Energy sources and consumption sectors in the U.S.
Slide 9
Domestic Production: 71.7 Quads Imports: 34.6 Quads
Consumption: 101.6 Quads Adjustments ~1 Exports 5.4 Quads Energy
Supply (Quads) Energy Consumption U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 U.S.
Energy Flow, 2007 About 1/3 of U.S. primary energy is imported ~
100 Quads of Energy (Quads = Quadrillion BTU = 10 15 BTU)
Slide 10
10 Supply 107 Quads U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads) U.S. Energy
Flow, 2007 (Quads) 85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels
Domestic 67% Imports 33% Residential Commercial Industrial Consume
102 Quads Nuclear 8% Renewable 7% Fossil 85% Transportation 10
Slide 11
U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads)
>70% of primary energy for the transportation sector and >60%
of primary energy for electricity generation/use is lost Source:
LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be
given to LLNL and DOE. 11 ~44% Efficiency
Slide 12
US Transportation Challenge Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early
Release Overview Release Date: December 16, 2010 | Full Report
Release Date: April 26, 2011 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2011);
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/executive_summary.cfmReport
Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2011)
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/executive_summary.cfm Crude Oil
Production:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm
http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm Annual
US Oil Production (Barrels per day) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5,102
5,064 4,950 5,361 5,512 Annual US Oil Imports all countries
(Barrels per day) 13,707 13,468 12,915 11,691 11,753 12
Slide 13
CAF Standards History 13 MODEL YEAR
1977198019851990199520002001200220032004 FUEL ECON. STAND. MPG
N/A2028 27.5 CAFE, MPG 192428 29 3029.1 NEW PASSENGER CAR FLEET
AVERAGE CHARACTERISTICS
http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/cafe/NewPassengerCarFleet. htm We
are making progress. Are we making progress fast enough? Are hybrid
vehicles/electric vehicles the answer? Fleet turnover of about 10
years.
Slide 14
14 Energy Storage Challenge breakthroughs needed x2-5 increase
in battery energy density x10-20 increase through chemical storage
+ fuel cells Energy/weight Energy/volume 0 10 20 30 010203040
Energy Storage Density gasoline batteries super capacitors
Electrify transportation - plug-in hybrids and electric cars
Batteries: 30-50x less energy density than gasoline Beyond
batteries: chemical storage + fuel cells = electricity Impossible
dream: x10 improvement ethanol combustion electrical storage
methanol hydrogen compounds (target) compressed hydrogen gas
chemical + fuel cells = electricity electro-chemical storage
chemical storage http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/BES
AC/Meetings.html#0209 http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/BES
AC/Meetings.html#0209 Crabtree presentation ALSO: Storage needed to
handle intermittent solar and wind electricity generation
Slide 15
15 In the News NY Times Lithium: February 3, 2009 In Bolivia,
Untapped Bounty Meets Nationalism By SIMON ROMEROSIMON ROMERO
UYUNI, BOLIVIA In the rush to build the next generation of hybrid
or electric cars, a sobering fact confronts both automakers and
governments seeking to lower their reliance on foreign oil: almost
half of the worlds lithium, the mineral needed to power the
vehicles, is found here in Bolivia a country that may not be
willing to surrender it so easily. Japanese and European companies
are busily trying to strike deals to tap the resource, but a
nationalist sentiment about the lithium is building quickly in the
government of President Evo Morales, an ardent critic of the United
States who has already nationalized Bolivias oil and natural gas
industries.
Slide 16
US Electricity Profile
EIA:http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html
Energy Source # of Generators Nameplate Capacity Coal 1,470 336,040
Petroleum3,743 62,394 Natural Gas5,439 449,389 Other Gases 105
2,663 Nuclear 104 105,764 Hydroelectric3,992 77,644 Wind 389 16,596
Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic38 503 Wood and Wood Derived Fuels346
7,510 Geothermal2243,233 Other Biomass1,299 4,834 Pumped Storage
151 20,355 Other42 866 Total 17, 342 1,087,791 Baseload Power ~
Capacity ~ 2/3 Coal always on A new fossil fueled power plant costs
from $1-2 Billion; Nuclear $10 B +
Slide 17
US Electricity Challenge - Can This Change?
EIA:http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html
Energy Source # of Generators Nameplate Capacity Coal 1,470 336,040
Petroleum3,743 62,394 Natural Gas5,439 449,389 Other Gases 105
2,663 Nuclear 104 105,764 Hydroelectric3,992 77,644 Wind 389 16,596
Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic38 503 Wood and Wood Derived Fuels346
7,510 Geothermal2243,233 Other Biomass1,299 4,834 Pumped Storage
151 20,355 Other42 866 Total 17, 342 1,087,791 Baseload Power ~
Capacity ~ 2/3 Coal A new fossil fueled power plant costs from $1-2
Billion; Nuclear $10 B +
Slide 18
18 Trends in Energy Bulk Commodity Based Energy to Technology
Based Energy Distributed Energy to Centralized Energy to
Distributed Energy Fireplaces to 1000Mw Electric Power Plants to
Solar Cells or Ground Source Heat Pumps on Homes Distributed Energy
to Centralized Energy Horses to Cars to Mass Transit
Slide 19
19 Example of energy lost during conversion and transmission.
Imagine that the coal needed to illuminate an incandescent light
bulb contains 100 units of energy when it enters the power plant.
Only two units of energy eventually light the bulb. The remaining
98 units are lost along the way, primarily as heat. Overall
Efficiency of an Incandescent Bulb 2% Lighting accounts for 22% of
all electricity usage in the U.S. No energy loss value assigned to
getting the coal from the ground to the power plant (mining,
transportation, etc) Waste heat
Slide 20
Updating the Electricity System? Fleet turnover maybe over 50
years Number of Generating Units in Portfolio (59) Age of Duke
Energy Generating Capacity (41,000 MW) 57% of Generation Capacity
is Greater than 30 Years Old
Slide 21
Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit
should be given to LLNL and DOE. 21 Fuel Switching End-use
Efficiency Carbon Capture and Sequestration Electric Energy Storage
Zero-net-emissions Electricity Generation Conservation Key Research
and Development Areas Climate/Environment Impacts Electricity
Distribution
Slide 22
22 Earth Resources and Alternate Energy? ElementWorld
Production Material Needs for 20GW/yr % of Current Prodcution
Indium250Mt/a400Mt/a160% Selenium2,200 MT/a800 MT/a36% Gallium150
MT/a70 MT/a47% Tellurium450 MT/a (2000 MT/a unused today) 930
MT/a38% of total Cadmium26,000 MT/a800 MT/a3% Also of interest are
Neodymium (for high performance permanent magnets in motors),
Indium (transparent conducting oxide for flat panel displays,
etc.), Gallium (used in a variety of solid state lighting devices),
Gadolinium (potentially of use in high performance magnetic
refrigeration), Cobalt (also used in some Li ion batteries),
Samarium (used in SaCo permanent magnets with better temperature
characteristics than NdFeB), etc. Elemental Needs for large scale
Photovoltaic production in the U.S.
Slide 23
Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit
should be given to LLNL and DOE. 23 Fuel Switching Carbon Capture
and Sequestration How Will Earth Sciences Influence Energy?
Climate/Environment Impacts Water Resources for Electricity
Generation New Energy Minerals Find New Resources, ex. Coal Bed
Methane, Methane Hydrates Water for biofuels Waste Disposal
Computers Solar cells Fuel Rods Produced Water CO2
Slide 24
A lot of CO 2 Sequestration Sites Will Be Required for
Decarbonation of Fossil Fuel Power Plants Options for storing CO 2
in underground geological formations for 330,000 MW of electric
energy generation. After Benson and Cook (2005).
Slide 25
25 They exist only because of a regulatory requirement They are
not required for the normal functioning of an engine They affect
how an internal combustion engine now can operate There have been
several generations of improvements They have created a new
business opportunity where none existed CCS - Carbon Capture and
Sequestration From the energy source Into the environment
Slide 26
Cost ($ per ton CO 2 ) 321 US CO 2 emission avoided
(gigatons/year) 40 0 -40 -80 electronics and lighting efficient
cars and trucks efficient new buildings combined heat/power power
generation/industry other other incl. nuclear agriculture,
forestry, land use improve existing buildings renewable energy
carbon sequestration 40% of current US emissions!
http://mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/US_ghg_final_report.pdf
Scalability ? Estimated Cost of Carbon Reductions
Slide 27
27 For details on the assumptions underlying the options, go to
www.wri.org/usenergyoption Power Sector (this size corresponds to
20 B kWh) Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 100,000
barrels of oil per day) Conclusions: Energy Security Vs Climate
Impact 27
Slide 28
28 Conclusions: Improving Energy Education Create an Informed
Public on the different roles to be played by: Energy efficiency
and conservation Green energy technologies Improvements of existing
energy (fossil fuel, hydropower and nuclear) power systems
Greenhouse gas emission reductions Traditional disciplinary system
at University level (such as Geology) versus a more integrated,
multidisciplinary approach (Energy Systems) Provide training and
inspiration for the next generation of scientists, engineers,
policymakers, and citizens. CURE NIMBY
Slide 29
29 Conclusions: Key Science Education Questions What do we want
our students to know ? Why do we want them to know it ? General
Education vs Science Majors How do we provide context? Do we
provide maximum information and hope some sticks? or Do we provide
the bare bones and demand it all sticks? Undergraduate level
objectives ? Graduate level objectives? Career level
objectives?
Slide 30
Illumination of the Night Sky 2/3 of the U.S population has
lost naked-eye visibility of the Milky Way
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=1438l 30 Conclusion
-Where to from here? The current energy grid has the brain of a
worm multiple ganglion without central direction.and wastes more
than half of its energy
Slide 31
31 Web resources:
http://www.science.doe.gov/SC-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm
http://www.science.doe.gov/SC-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm
http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/bes.html
http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/bes.html
http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/archives/summaries.html
http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/archives/summaries.html
http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html
http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html
http://www.fossil.energy.gov/ http://www.fossil.energy.gov/
http://www.eere.energy.gov/ http://www.eere.energy.gov/
http://www.eia.doe.gov/ http://www.eia.doe.gov/
http://www.energy.gov/sciencetech/carbonsequestration.htm
http://www.energy.gov/sciencetech/carbonsequestration.htm Other
Reports; Grand Challenges for Earth Resources Engineering
Engineering applied to the discovery, development and
environmentally responsible production of subsurface earth
resources. NAS BESR - November 2010 (not yet available on the web)
Grand Challenges for Engineering, National Academy of Engineering
report 2008 Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, National Petroleum
Council report 2007 Our Common Future, World Commission on
Environment and Development, Oxford University Press 1987 Source
Material