Office Market Report & Forecast Greater Toronto Area 2008 · 2008-09-25 · Greater Toronto Area Vacancy Rate (5.2%) Net Absorption (927,168) Asking Net Rent ($18.08) Net New Supply

Office Market Report & Forecast

F A L L

2008Colliers International | Greater Toronto Area

Welcome to the Colliers International Fall 2008 Office Market Report.

It is our hope that you find this report and market forecast interesting and of

value to your business. It is intended to provide insight into the dynamics

of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) office market, and to assist in near-

term business planning. The Colliers International Toronto research team has

re-formatted our market reports in an effort to provide greater clarity and context

employing the metrics commonly used in the commercial real estate industry.

More emphasis on the visual presentation of these statistics is one way that we are striving

to make our reports more user-friendly. For those of you who would like to continue

reviewing statistical tables in our previous format, we would be more than happy to

provide those to you upon request. Our contact details are listed in the back of this

report.

As a valued client or partner, your feedback and questions are most welcome, as they will

help us to refine future reports.

Regards,

Ian MacCulloch

Vice-President, Research

Canada

1

Toro

nto

Eco

nom

ic Overview

Toronto Economic Over v iew

Growth Continues in the Service Sector

The Canadian domestic economy continues to remain strong as solid employment and income gains in recent years have

boosted domestic demand, and continue to balance the declines seen in the manufacturing sector.

Toronto’s commercial office leasing market is driven primarily by the service sector, where output is expected to increase by

2.9 per cent in 2008, and will pick up further with annual growth rates of 3.1 per cent and 3.8 per cent in 2009 and 2010

respectively. Employment growth in this sector is expected to slow down this year to a growth rate of 2.8 per cent and to 1.8 per

cent in 2009, regaining some speed in 2010, with a growth rate of 2.8 per cent.

Personal disposable income is forecasted to rise by a further 6.1 per cent this year, slowing down in 2009 to a moderate growth

of 3.9 per cent, and will pick up again in 2010 with an annual growth rate of 5.2 per cent. Service sector output growth will

be led by public administration, which is set to increase by 3.9 per cent in 2008. The other two industries contributing to

office space demand (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate (F.I.R.E), and Commercial Services) will see less overall growth in 2008.

F.I.R.E. output will experience the slowest growth of 2.8 per cent, while commercial services are forecasted to rise by 2.9 per

cent. According to The Conference Board of Canada, employment in these sectors will experience a light contraction later this

year and into the beginning of 2009. This is primarily driven by the F.I.R.E. and commercial services sector as the economy

slowly digests the credit crunch and slowdown of the economy. This pullback in demand will be felt most directly in Toronto’s

downtown core where the F.I.R.E. sector occupies a large component of office space in addition where the bulk of the Greater

Toronto Area (GTA) region new supply is being delivered.

The combination of slower growth and an influx of new supply is expected to push vacancy rates upwards, from five per cent

to approximately seven per cent in 2009. In the latter half of 2009, Toronto’s economy is expected to return to more healthy

growth in these sectors, and will begin driving vacancy back down until further new supply emerges. Rents throughout the

GTA are projected to move downward in the range of one to two per cent from current levels, however with overall vacancy

remaining healthy, there are no big moves foreseen.

During the review of market performance, it is determined that real GDP and office employment correlated well with the GTA

office market indicators. Given the strength of the relationship between the economic indicators and office market indicators,

this information was utilized in Colliers’ forecast model for the GTA office markets.

Economic Indicators

2008Q1

2008Q2

2008Q3F

2008Q4F

2009Q1F

2009Q2F

2009Q3F

2009Q4F

2010Q1F

2010Q2F

GTA GDP at Basic Prices (Mil. $ 2002)

222,728 224,842 226,457 227,670 228,779 230,386 232,228 234,300 237,229 239,536

% change -0.98 0.95 0.72 0.54 0.49 0.70 0.80 0.89 1.25 0.97

GTA Employment (000s)

2922 2938 2936 2933 2938 2960 2983 2998 3017 3034

% change 1.11 0.57 -0.06 -0.10 0.16 0.74 0.78 0.50 0.64 0.57

GTA Offi ce Employment* (000s)

1153 1170 1172 1169 1168 1172 1182 1190 1198 1205

% change 1.98 1.45 0.17 -0.23 -0.11 0.33 0.86 0.65 0.68 0.65

* Utilized in office demand forecast. Source: The Conference Board of Canada, August 2008

2

Throughout 2008, the office leasing market has shown signs

of deceleration with the downward trend in vacancy, and

upward movement of asking rent. Both indicators have

moved positively, albeit at a slower rate than previous periods.

The office leasing market remains a landlords market with a

vacancy rate of five per cent, and rent growth of 5.9 per cent

to an average asking rent of $18.07 per square foot as of July,

2008. Absorption remained strong with just under 3.0 million

square feet of growth in occupied space during the past twelve-

month period.

GTAWest

Downtown

Midtown

GTAEast

GTANorth

Asking Net RentVacancy Rate New Supply Tenants Market Landlords Market

FORECAST

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

5.2%

$18.08

Greater Toronto Area

Net Absorption (927,168) Asking Net Rent ($18.08) Net New Supply (300,217)Vacancy Rate (5.2%)

There are two key issues that will impact the short-term performance of the office markets in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA):

1. The length and depth of the economic downturn in the United States, as well as Canada’s other global

trading partners.

2. The length of time required for the office leasing market to digest new space, primarily in the downtown

area, with a scheduled delivery in 2009 and 2010.

3

Arrows indicate trend observed since Spring 2008

GTA Historical Performance & Forecast

Greater

Toro

nto

Area

In reviewing the GTA’s ability to mitigate the impact of a global economic slowdown, the forecast has employed projections by

The Conference Board of Canada for office employment growth, which serves as an excellent proxy for office space demand.

This indicator points to a slowdown of growth through 2008, with a brief pullback in office employment during the first two

quarters of 2009. It is anticipated that softening demand, coupled with new supply will result in an average vacancy increase of

10 basis points per quarter until Q2 2010 in the GTA, along with a downward pull on asking rents as competition for tenants

heats up.

Recent Sales Activity

Property Address Submarket Type Sale Price Sale Price / Sq. Ft.

Property Size/ Sq. Ft.

Capitalization Rate

161 Bay Street /

30 Yonge StreetFinancial Core AAA $424,999,998 $754 1,127,987 5.20%

60 Courtneypark Drive West /

80 Courtneypark Drive West

Hwy 401 /

HurontarioB $34,000,000 $214 158,841 7.20%

185 Frederick Street /

204 - 214 King Street EastDowntown East A $30,500,000 $227 134,401 6.80%

2810 Matheson Boulevard EastAirport Corporate

CentreA $26,150,000 $203 128,924 7.10%

1005 Skyview Drive Burlington B $22,050,000 $218 100,928 6.50%

Source: Colliers Intternational, April - August 2008

Recent Lease Activity

Property Address Submarket Type Size / Sq. Ft. Tenant

18 York Street Financial Core A 280,000 Pricewaterhouse Coopers

150 Bloor Street West Yonge / Bloor A 81,000 Ontario Medical Association

90 Burnhamthorpe Road Mississauga City Centre A 78,356 Edward Jones

5100 Spectrum Way Airport Corporate Centre A 73,500 Intuit Canada

75 Eglinton Avenue East Yonge / Eglinton A 72,500 Thomas Cook

Source: Colliers Intternational, April - August 2008

4

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10

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TA


The pace at which asking net rents have been increasing has

clearly eased during the past 18 months. Rents have continued to

climb in the financial core, downtown North and East, while they

have come off slightly in downtown, West and South markets.


$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

FORECAST

3.7%

$24.06

July 2008 August 2007

$19.71

$10.13$15.80

$17.94$19.33

$28.35

$21.16

$17.22

$25.95$8.92 $14.33

$19.64

Toronto West (up 14%)

Downtown East (up 10%)

Downtown West(down 9%)

Downtown North (up 14%)

Financial Core (up 9%)

Downtown South (down 9%)

GTA Downtown

New supply will dictate the future of GTA’s downtown market, as a large block of space including five new office buildings will

be delivered in 2009-2010. The market has been tightening steadily over the past 48 months, and stability is projected through

2008 and early 2009 until the new buildings are delivered. Upon completion of these new towers, vacancy is projected to climb

three per cent to 2006 levels in the range of 6.5 per cent to seven per cent. Our forecast model above interprets this climb in

vacancy as a strong downward pressure on asking rents, from today’s level of $24 per square foot to a projected level of $20

per square foot. This statistical result will be affected by the sentiment of the property owners, which may well mitigate the

downward movement. Our model utilizes office employment growth forecasts from The Conference Board of Canada, which

indicate two quarters of slightly negative growth, followed by a return to moderate growth in the latter part of 2009.

7


GTA Downtown Historical Performance & Forecast

Asking Net Rent ( August 2007 - July 2008 )

GTA

Dow

nto

wn

The financial core had a marginal contraction in occupied

space, whereas the surrounding downtown sub-markets

showed healthy activity during the past twelve months.

In studying the health and activity levels of the office leasing market, sublet space as a percentage of vacant space (sublease ratio)

is a useful barometer, and can be employed as a leading indicator for demand. Competing messages can confuse this measure,

and in recent months this has occurred within the downtown markets, as the sublease ratio has tripled. Upon closer evaluation,

the amount of vacant space has declined by 33 per cent during the same time while vacant sublet space has doubled. While the

picture is not as bearish as many had first interpreted - the message is clear - sublet space is a growing component of the market

and history shows that this is often the leading edge of softer demand.

Downtown North

Financial CoreToronto West

Downtown SouthDowntown East

Downtown West

3,89

2

53,258

102,86

3313,72

2

892,468

(51,447)

The doughnut represents

the distribution of occupied

space within the downtown

submarkets as of

July 31, 2008.

Total Vacant Space Vacant Sublease Space % of Vacant Sublease Space of Total Vacant Space

4.3% 4.1%5.0%

7.5%

8.6%

12.5% 12.4%

500,000

0

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 July 2008

8

Net Absorption by Submarket 12 Months

18-Month Vacancy Trend

of Total Vacant Space

GTA Midtown



$0

2%

0%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

$2

$4

$6$6

$8$8

$10$10

$12$12

$14$14

$16$16

$18

$20

FORECAST

5.0%

$16.88

The average asking net rent in GTA’s

midtown is quoted at $16.49 per square foot

(as of July 2008) up 1.9 per cent from a year

ago. Yonge & Eglinton increased the most

significantly by 11 per cent, while the Yonge

& Bloor values decreased by two per cent.


$18.17

$13.47$14.97

$17.89

$14.99$15.18

Yonge & Bloor (down 2%)

Yonge & Eglinton(up 11%)

Yonge & St. Clair(up 1%)

GTA’s midtown market looks to remain stable with no large swings in supply or demand. GTA midtown continues to be

sought after by companies looking for a central, non-core location. The stability of supply and demand results in a projected

vacancy of between 5.1 per cent and 4.7 per cent, and asking net rental rates remain steady between $16.50 and $17.20 per

square foot.

9


GTA Midtown Historical Performance & Forecast


GTA

Mid

tow

n

Yonge & St. Clair Yonge & Eglinton Yonge & Bloor

The doughnut represents the distribution of occupied space within the midtown

submarkets as of July 31, 2008.

50,14392,400

(107

,673

)


6.5%

11.5%

6.7% 6.6%

3.7% 4.0%3.3%

100,000

0

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 July 2008

The Yonge & St.Clair and Yonge & Eglinton sub-markets

increased in occupied space over the course of the last

12 months. Yonge & Bloor, the largest of the midtown

submarkets, has added just over 100,000 square feet of

space to the market, which should be absorbed within a

reasonable timeframe.

In contrast to the downtown market, both total vacant space and sublet vacant space have declined since Q1 2007. Absorption

of sublet vacant space was the main driver behind the reduction of the overall vacant space, and has resulted in a decreased

sublet ratio, suggesting a tightening market.

10




GTA Nor th


Asking net rents in GTA North eased over the

course of the last year by 2.7 per cent and now

sit at $14.24 per square foot. The 12-month

comparison by submarket shows that Richmond

Hill experienced the steepest decline of asking

net rents, while Vaughan quoted asking net rents

nine per cent higher than 12 months ago.


FORECAST

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

3.8%

$15.01


$14.60

$16.89

$6.81$11.88

$16.42

$17.92

$11.88

$16.03

$7.27

$11.95

Dufferin/Finch (up 7%)

North-Yonge Corridor(down 7%)

Richmond Hill (down 19%)Vaughn (up 9%)

Keele Hwy 401 / Yorkdale(up 1%)

Similar to the midtown market, GTA North is a stable market with solid demand and fewer available options for tenants. An easing

of office employment growth will reduce the office space demand somewhat, however not to the extent that it will impact asking

rent. It is projected that asking rent will hover just under $15.00 per square foot, until Q3 2009 when the economy as well as office

employment are forecasted to slowly rebound and drive vacancy down, resulting in upward pressure on rents.

11


GTA North Historical Performance & Forecast


GTA

North

The North-Yonge corridor submarket has

the highest demand within this North office

market. More than half of the total occupied

space in GTA North is allocated to the

North-Yonge corridor. North-Yonge also saw

the largest amount of absorption during the

last 12 months.

North-Yonge Corridor

Keele Hwy 401 / Yorkdale

Dufferin/FinchRichmond Hill

Vaughan The doughnut represents the

distribution of occupied space

within the GTA North

submarkets as of July 31, 2008.

145,364

33,7

75

3,7

57

(17,5

36)

(22,6

58)


21.1%

15.1% 15.6%

13.1%

8.9%

10.8%

8.5%

100,000

0

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 July 2008

12

GTA North experienced a reduction of 200,000 square feet of vacant space during the past 12 months. Examining the

components of total vacant space, it becomes apparent that vacant sublease space decreased at a faster rate than total vacant

space, resulting in a lower sublease ratio. This indicator points to continued stability in the GTA North market.




GTA West


Asking net rents in GTA West decreased by two per cent during

the past 12 months. The majority of submarkets experienced this

downward trend; while five submarkets saw an increase in asking

rents, Brampton leads the pack with an 11 per cent increase.


FORECAST

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

6.1%

$14.44


$16.28

$15.43

$20.38

$16.36$13.49

$13.70

$12.66

$13.34

$14.27

$14.04

$15.57

$10.15

$17.06 $12.69 $14.10

$13.77

$12.28

$13.15

$14.48$10.32

$15.73

$12.56

$15.72

$18.80

Airport Corporate Centre

(+/- 0)

Airport East (up 10%)

AirportWest(down 14%)

Bloor / Islington(down 4%)

Brampton(up 11%)

Burlington (up 9%)

Cooksville (down 2%)

Hwy 401 Hurontario (down 6%)

Mississauga City Centre (up 4%)

Meadowvale (down 14%)

Oakville (up 1%)

Sheridan(down 8%)

During the past 7 1/2 years GTA West has been the hot spot for new development. In this timeframe inventory has increased by

almost 10 million square feet. Further construction of office buildings are underway as companies are attracted by design-build

opportunities, and space options within business parks close to highways, desired labour pools and airports. Rents are projected

to remain stable through 2008 into mid 2009, as a result of an economic slowdown and decrease of office employment growth.

Vacancy levels are expected to move slightly upward in the near term, with a bounce-back starting in the latter part of 2009,

resulting in declining vacancy and climbing rents. A return to growth will likely trigger renewed interest in new construction,

which will need to remain balanced with demand to provide stability of vacancy levels.

13


GTA West Historical Performance & Forecast


GTA

West

The largest increase in occupied space over the

last 12 months has been seen in the airport West

submarket. While all centrally located submarkets

within GTA West have increased in occupied office

space, the submarkets located at the periphery of the

GTA West market saw a decrease in occupied space.

GTA West has the highest sublease ratio of all GTA office leasing markets, currently standing at 16.8 per cent. This indicator

will be closely watched to determine if it is an anomaly, or the emergence of a softening trend.

The doughnut represents the distribution of occupied space

within the GTA West submarkets as of July 31, 2008.

Airport West

CooksvilleACC

SheridanOakville

Hwy 404/Hurontario

Airport East

BurlingtonBrampton Bloor/Islington

Meadowville

MCC

6,33

0

28,11191

,309

106,86

5

113,08

0

158,83

3

357,160

3,74

6

(3,146

)

(17,81

2)

(29,71

2)

(120

,098

)


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

0

0

2

4

8%

10

12

14

16

18

8.4%

13.5%

16.0%17.8%

16.0%16.8% 16.8%

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 July 2008

14




Meadowvale

GTA East

Net Absorption (230,263) Asking Net Rent ($13.04) Net New Supply (122.007)Vacancy Rate (7.6%)

Average asking rent increased by 1.2 per cent during the past

12 months in the GTA East market. Looking more closely

at each office space cluster, only three out of nine markets

experienced an increase of asking rents. This was attributed

to large blocks of newly marketed space that occurred in

buildings of higher calibre than prior periods. This trend

could be seen in the following submarkets: Don Mills &

Eglinton, Consumers Road and Markham.


FORECAST

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

7.6%

$13.04


$16.20

$10.93

$9.00

$12.62

$13.99

$9.50 $16.70

$12.30

$16.29

$12.22

$12.30

$12.14

$7.41

$15.01

$11.61

$8.64

$13.91

$9.37

Toronto East (down 22%)

Hwy 404/Hwy 407 (Down 10%)

Pickering / Oshawa (down 6%)

Scarborough Town (down 1%)

Consumers Road(up 13%)

Duncan Mill (down 4%)

Woodbine & Steeles (down 4%)

Markham (up 1%)

Don Mills &Eglinton

(up 30%)

GTA’s East market continues the trend of above average vacancy rates, and below average asking net rents throughout the GTA.

These factors create a market that is a good value alternative to other locations. Average asking rents have been stable since Q4

2007, hovering around $13.00 per square foot. We expect the economic slowdown and decrease of office employment in the

coming quarters to marginally increase the vacancy rates, with average asking rents in this market anticipated to remain steady.

New supply does not look to have a major impact, as new buildings coming to market have a healthy percentage of pre-leasing

commitments.

15


GTA East Historical Performance & Forecast


GTA

East

Submarkets demonstrating higher demand

are those in Markham, Hwy 404/Hwy 407,

Consumers Road, Don Mills/Eglinton

and Duncan Mills as they have a higher

concentration of office space, offer good

highway access and proximity to public transit

and labour pools.

Similar to the dynamics described in the downtown market, GTA East shows a decline in overall vacant space, and an increase

in sublease vacant space as some companies work through the disposition of space, and weather softer economic conditions.

Markham

Toronto EastDuncan Mill

Don Mills & EglintonConsumer Road

Hwy 404/Hwy 407

Woodbine & Steeles

Pickering / Oshawa

Scarborough Town Centre

The doughnut represents the distribution of occupied space within the GTA East submarkets

as of July 31, 2008.

53,435

175,97

0

190,89

0

267,377269,417

(88,87

5)

(21,66

8)

(16,94

8)

(17,47

4)


7.3%8.1%

6.6%6.9%

12.4%12.0%

13.7%

500,000

0

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 July 2008

16



Consumers Road


Glossar y of Terms

Office InventoryThe sum of net rentable area in office buildings with

more than 10,000 square feet of office space. Buildings

owned and occupied by the government are not included.

Net New SupplyChange of office inventory associated with a given time

period.

Office Employment According to The Conference Board of Canada, office

employment consists of workers employed in the following

industries: Finance, Insurance & Real Estate (F.I.R.E);

Commercial Services and Public Administration.

Occupied SpaceOffice space physically occupied by companies, not

available to lease.

Net AbsorptionChange of occupied space associated with a given time

period.

Available SpaceSpace that is available for lease and may or may not be

vacant. It includes both head lease (direct), and sublease

space.

Availability RateThe amount of available space divided by the building’s

inventory base.

Vacant SpaceSpace that is available and physically unoccupied. It

includes both head lease (direct), and sublease space.

Vacancy RateThe amount of vacant space divided by the existing

building’s inventory base.

Vacant Sublease RatioThe percentage of vacant sublease space in relation to

total vacant space.

Average Asking Net RentThe dollar amount requested by landlords for direct

available space (not sublease), expressed in dollars per

square foot, per year.

17

Colliers International represents property investors, developers and occupiers in local, national and global markets.

North Offi ce

245 Yorkland Blvd., Suite 200

Toronto, Ontario

Canada, M2J 4W9

416.492.2000

Downtown Offi ce

One Queen Street East, Suite 2200

Toronto, Ontario

Canada, M5C 2Z2

416.777.2200

West Offi ce

185 The West Mall, Suite 1600

Toronto, Ontario

Canada, M9C 5L5

416.626.1600

Scott Addison

Executive Managing Director

Industrial & Investment

Practice Groups

416.620.2800

[email protected]

Mary Mowbray

Manager

Retail Practice Group

416.643.3740

[email protected]

George Chambers

Vice President & Manager

Eastern Canada

Real Estate Management Services

416.643.3406

[email protected]

John Arnoldi

Managing Director

Offi ce Practice Group

416.643.3733

[email protected]

Ian MacCulloch

Vice President - Research

Canada

416.643.3708

[email protected]

Duerten Lindenbeck

Analyst - Offi ce & Retail

416.643.3764

[email protected]

Colliers International Contacts

Our Strategic Partners:

This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com. This is a research document of Colliers Macaulay Nicolls (Ontario) Inc., Brokerage © 2008. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at 416.777.2200. The information contained in this report was provided by sources deemed to be reliable, however, no guarantee is made as to the accuracy or reliability. As new, corrected or updated information is obtained, it is incorporated into both current and historical data, which may invalidate comparison to previously issued reports. Colliers Macaulay Nicolls (Ontario) Inc., Brokerage © 2008 is an owner member of Colliers International, a worldwide real estate partnership with offices in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Australia and Africa.

Colliers International offers a full range of property solutions:

Brokerage Services

Commercial Leasing

Corporate Services

Industrial Sales & Leasing

Investment Sales

Property & Facilities Management

Research & Consulting Services

Retail Services

Our Property Solutions Service All Property Types:

Offi ce

Industrial

Multi-Family

Retail

Hotels

Technical Facilities

To view this report online, visit: www.colliers.com/toronto

18

Serving our clients from 293 offi ces in 61 countries worldwide.

Documents

Office Market Report & Forecast Greater Toronto Area 2008 · 2008-09-25 · Greater Toronto Area Vacancy Rate (5.2%) Net Absorption (927,168) Asking Net Rent ($18.08) Net New Supply