OFCOM Workshop:

Good Evidence for Copyright Policy

Liz Bales

September 2013

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Members

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Partners

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Industry Trust Tracking Survey

Key Findings

Prepared by ICM for the Industry Trust

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Objectives and Methodology

Fieldwork

ICM conducted 2,720 interviews online between 25th July – 14th August 2013.

Sample

A core sample of 2,000 British adults (aged 16+) was interviewed, in addition to 376 11-15 year olds. A further ‘boost’ of 250 males aged 16-34 was also added to the sample.

Key Objectives

1) Tracking the progress of the “Moments Worth Paying For” campaign against weighted online KPIs

2) Providing greater understanding of the market environment and consumer behaviour in the target audiences

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Unofficial Downloading

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% Ever download/stream un/officially Significant changes from Dec 2012 indicated by or

All forms of downloading/streaming have increased. Unofficial activity has increased among the target audience as well as among females aged 16+.

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Film/TV activities: Ever access unauthorised

No. film/TV access events pm

3012

An unauthorised accessor is far more valuable, accessing more than twice as much authorised, paid-for film/TV.

Proportion of film/TV access events

(Downloading, buying, renting, buying gifts,

sharing, watching film/TV, cinema)

Never access unauthorised

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Reaction if unofficial film/TV were unavailable

(Ever download unauthorised)

CinemaPay-per view TV

DVD/ BlurayDownload/

stream official

Those engaging in unofficial activity are now more likely to say that they would engage in each of the authorised activities if unofficial sources became unavailable.

(56% any of these channels)

+6Vs. Dec 2012

+5 +4 +5

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Messaging Strategy (i)STRATEG

Y

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Messaging Strategy (ii)

•Audience• Pre teens/teens

• Young males

• Parents

•Delivery Channel• Cinema

• Outdoor Digital

• PR

• Online

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Creative Executions

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Media KPIs

All Films

All above board

All in one place

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Overall campaign awareness now exceeds 2012 levels, while awareness of findanyfilm.com remains steady.

Awareness KPIs – Males aged 16-34

December 2013 target:53%

December 2013 target:40%

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Attitude KPIs have now exceeded the December 2012 target.

Attitude KPIs – Males aged 16-34

December 2012 target:48%

December 2012 target:48%

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Differing assets and conditions deliver different engagement levels with spikes around certain creative executions.

KPI Summary – All 16-34 year old males who download/stream unofficially

Support UK film industry

Worth paying

for

Aug-12 Dec-12 Aug-13

Support UK film industry

Support UK film industry

Worth paying

for

Worth paying

for

Ratio=

2.19:1

Ratio=

1.62:1

Ratio=

0.95:1

Ratio=

1.36:1

Ratio=

1.59:1

Ratio=

1.60:1

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What’s the future trend in digital infringement?

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Alternative Methodologies

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• What is the baseline of AV piracy over the next 3-5 years assuming no legal or communications interventions?

• How might communications programmes affect this baseline?

• What might be the impact of legal interventions under DEA legislation or a similarly-designed progamme on the baseline of AV piracy?

The objectives of the project

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The process we have undertaken

Define the planning hypothesis for the SIM.Planning

Define the constituent parts of the SIM (agents and objects), their respective

behavioural rules and the key validation data sets.

SIM Design

Implement the behavioural rules on our simulation platform and test for consistency

with behavioural hypothesis.SIM Development

Validate the outputs of the SIM against key data sets and vary parameters until we

achieve a satisfactory fit. Revise hypothesis and iterate if necessary.

SIM Validation

Establish baseline trajectory, explore core dynamics and identify impact of different

marketing programmes.

Experimentation & Analysis

Document insights, issues and recommendations.

Write-up

Review of existing research and collation of population, driver and validation dataDiscovery

Parameterisation

Revision of hypothesis

iteration

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• Economic factors do not seem to be significant in driving rates of piracy

• Communications are restraining the spread of piracy but on their own cannot easily drive prevalence lower

• The shift from DVD watching has the potential to be a major driver of piracy (and an increase in technical aptitude could exacerbate the problem)

• The uptake of subscription services could reduce the demand for piracy

• Legal interventions will be a major tool in shifting behaviour away from piracy

Summary of insights from the Pirate SIM

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Some round numbers

Number of (adult) pirates in the UK

About 10 million

Number of potential pirates communications are

suppressingAbout 2 million

Number of young people starting piracy every year

About 500k

Number of people who will start streaming/downloading film/TV online by the end of

2015

About 15 million