I

Probing the Potential ofArtificial Intelligence

"mjO ONE DENIES THAT A MACHINE CAN■ physically outperform a man—it can dig att deeper ditch, carry a heavier load, calculate aI setof numbers faster. But most agreethat these

X m aptitudeshardly make themachine the superiorbeing. After all, only manhas the abilityto think, toreason. Amachine will neverdo that.

Never? Computer scientists and researchers likeDr. Edward Feigenbaum of Stanford University saysuch a machinealreadyexists, that wearenowon thethreshold of a newage, apoint in time wherecomput-ers areevolving from being information processors toknowledge processors. The new computers beingborn todaybelong to what is called theFifth Genera-tion. These artificial intelligence machines can domore than just calculate and store data—they can

learn from experience, understand natural Languageand they can reason. "The future," says Dr. Feigen-baum, "has alreadybeen invented."

Feigenbaum shouldknow. He helped invent it. Heis the creator of the worlds first knowledge-basedcomputer system, DENDRAL, aprogramthat deter-mines the molecular structureoforganic compounds.Unlike any other preceding computer systems.DENDRAL has the ability to reason by inference. Itis programmed with the collective knowledge andexperience of dozens of human experts. With thisinformation,DENDRAL can make informed guessesabout situations at hand much like humans do. Fei-genbaumcalls this heuristic knowledge.

DENDRALperforms so well—it is used by chem-ists around the world—that it has spawned other

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expert systems, including MYCIN, a program thatmakes medical diagnoses and advises doctors in thetreatment of blood and meningitis infections;MOLGEN, which helps genetic engineers analyzeDNA information; and Digital Equipment Corp. s Rl,which designs other computer systems with morespeed and accuracy than its own inventors could.

The success of DENDRAL and the birth of sym-bolic reasoning machines comes as no suprise to

anyonefamiliar with Feigenbaums illustrious career.The 47-year-old scientist has been breaking newground in the computer world with awesome reg-ularity eversince his brilliant undergraduate days at

Carnegie-Mellon University (formerly Carnegie In-stitute of Technology), where he reigned as the com-puter wunderkind of the late 19505.

Feigenbaum developed his genius for "thinkingcomputers" under the prodding tutelage of mentorHerbert Simon, a Nobel laureat who, along withAllan Newall, Marvin Minsky and John McCarthy,laid the theoretical groundwork for artificial intel-ligence. This esteemed circle of luminaries acceptedFeigenbaum as apeer rather than protegebecause ofhis uncanny ability to give their theories empiricalfooting.

FEIGENBAUM WHIZZED THROUGH COL-lege at computer speed, earning his Ph.D. bythe time he was 23. He won aFulbright scholar-ship and a chance to work at the NationalPhysical Laboratory, the preeminent British

computer think tank. From there he landed a pro-fessorship at UC Berkeley while still in his mid-20s.Feigenbaums stay at Berkeley was short-lived, how-ever, since Stanford University— jockeying to be-come the academic worlds leader in artificial intel-ligence research—lured him away with an offer todirectits fledglingbut nowworld-renownedComputerCenter. He was just 29 years old when he acceptedthe job.

While at Stanford, Feigenbaum hasn't eased hisspeedypace. In theearly daysofhis tenure he formedacollaboration with two other professors. Dr. JoshuaLederberg, a Nobel prize-winning geneticist, and Dr.Bruce Buchanan, a famed computer scientist. To-gether theycreated the Heuristic Programming Proj-ect, a laboratory in which they design and test

programs that can perform complex tasksofscientificreasoning atlevels at, or exceeding, human reasoninglevels. The lab has grown to a staff of 68 top re-searchers,scientists and computer programmers, in-cluding Feigenbaums Japanese-bornwife. Penny Nii."We work on a theme," is how he describes the lab-goal. "And that theme is the power ofknowledge to

influence performance."In the not so distant future. Feigenbaum forsees a

day when thinking computers will step outside theboundaries ofscientific and medical applications andenter the world of everyday use. We will rely on themto help manage routine chores. Thesepersonal, por-table, symbolic reasoning machines will be hookedinto a centralized network of expert systems, givingeach of us a direct pipeline to unlimited knowledge.They will be so sophisticated that we will be able to

carry

on conversational dialogue with them, so sim-ple to operate that anyone, regardless of computerexpertise, will be able to use one.

They will help us in almost even level of ourperformance, from the mundane to the exotic. Haveto fix a leakytoilet? Justask thecomputer whatto do.It will coach you, giving you step-by-step instruc-tions, supplying you with graphics, encouraging youwith compliments..Pests plaguing your garden? "ftalkthrough

your

backyard with your "expert" in hand. Itwill suggest possible solutions, advise you on whatcrops are best to plant, given your specific climaticconditions, and tell you what fertilizers to add andhow often towater. It will evenshare your joyat seeing

your

first plants bloom. Need someone to tell yourtroubles to? The computer knows just when to maketheright exclamation,nevertires ofasking to hearthesame storyagain, never grows impatient, neverbe-comes cross.

Ifthese sound like nothing morethan thegrandiosedreamsof some sciencefiction nut, rest assured thatDr. Feigenbaum is as much a realist as he is apragmatist. He isn't given to wild peregrinations intothe realm of fantasy, nor does he waste his timedesigning video gamerides to distant planets. He is aself-confessed workaholic who has devotedhis wholelife to thediscovery ofknowledge. His onlyflings withfancy arestints at singing requiems with the StanfordChorus.

FEIGENBAUM IS NOT ONLY WHOLLY CON-vinced that the advent of symbolic reasoningmachines is justaround die comer, he's afraidthat the Japanese are going to beat us to thepunch in developing them wholesale,thus cap-

turing the next greatmarket, thebrokering ofknowl-edge. "Knowledge is power." he says. "Andcomputers that amplify that knowledge will amplifyevery dimension of power." He believes thatwhoevergains supremacy in the knowledge-processing in-dustry may well control the balance of power in theworld ,

The Japanese have already begun their quest.They formally launched a national 10-year, multi-

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51 OBER

1983

million-dollar program on April 14th, 1982, to devel- funded by the government.A natural location for suchop a line of Knowledge Information Processing Sys- a center, Feigenbaum says, would be Silicon Valley.terns (KIPS) unequalled on earth. Funded by the Within afive-mile radius of Palo Alto are more than a

government, backed by industry and staffed by the dozenleading companies and laboratoriesengaged incountry's best and brightest computer scientists, the artificial intelligenceresearch, nottomention thechipJapanese plan, called, aptly enough, Fifth Genera- companies and computermanufacturing firms.tion Computer Systems, is designed to hopscotch the The center would do more than justgive America a

more shortsighted and complacent American high- leg up on Japans Fifth Generation project. Feigen-technologyfirms andleap aheadinto thenext genera- baumbelieves that it would return to America asense

tion ofartificial intelligence computers. of national will, much as the Kennedy and MannedFeigenbaum has ex- Spacecraft Center of Nasa

posed theJapanese plan in VLJYi HaV6 d°ne*" PESt "^a book he recently coau- W IlOeVer needa national goal, ana-

thored with science writer " tional will," he says. "WePamela McCorduck. En- gaillS Supremacy haven>t had a n^nal yj.

MedTheFifthGeneration: jn jjL^ sion since the days of theArtificial Intelligence and grand speeches of JohnJapans Computer Chal- loiOwledge-pTOCeSSing Kennedy. Everythinglenge tothe World, thebook & r seems to have been inter-calls for America to accept industry rupted by the Vietnamthe inevitability of expert -. War. Since then we'vehadsystems and todeviseana- mayWell COlltrol a gigantic failure of na-

tional plan of its own. The 1 , 1 tional will. But a projectauthors believe our coun- the balance like the center would givetry cannot afford—politi- r |J thatback tous. Wouldn't itcally, economically ormil- 0l WOIIU pOWei_ be exciting to have a na-

itarily—to let Japan domi- tional goal again?nate this revolution in information processing Wouldn't it be great to be leaders again?"technology. "The stakes are high," they write. If Forming such a center won't be easy. FeigenbaumAmerica doesn't meet Japan's challenge, "we may admits. To beginwith, American industrywould needconsign our nation to the role of the first great post- to change its traditional concept of competition andindustrial agrarian society." free enterprise. Furthermore, itwould encounterend-

The Fifth Generation ofcomputerswill sotransform less flack from people who believe that man has no

the industry, Feigenbaum believes, that if American business trafficking in the creation of intelligencefirms don't act now, high-tech industrial regions like because the manufacturing of machines to do ourourownSilicon Valley could well become theDetroits thinking for us infringes on God's territory.ofthe 19905. Unfortunately,few firms areheeding his Feigenbaum doesn't hide the fact that he thinksplea. Theyarerestricted by arefusal toaccept artificial artificial intelligence is nothing less than an evolu-intelligenceas areality, an inherent skepticism about tionary process of our own intelligence. He believesthe Japanese ability to bring their plan off and a strongly that it is man's manifest destiny to investigatereluctance tocooperatewitheachotherinwhat Feigen- knowledge, to harness its powers and capabilitiesbaum calls a "precompetitive" phase of technological through computers and to employ it for our ownuse.

research and development. Thus, they are destined to "Mankind has neverlostout by knowing more." hereinvent each other's products, repeat each other's says. "'Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set

mistakes. ye free.' The pursuit of understanding how intel-To help coordinate Americas efforts, Feigenbaum ligence operates has remarkable ramifications not

would like to see a national center for knowledge only for the betterment of mankind in an economictechnology created. His proposed institution would sense, but for the understanding ofhow humans learnlink together members of the computer industry with and teach. We're going tolearn how human reasoningacademic institutionsand thefederal government.The takes place and, ultimately, how thebrain operates. Icenterwould support thekind ofbasicresearch thatno see that as a great adventure, not as any stepping onsingle firm or even groupoffirms can afford torisk. In the province of God. Knowledge is the last great

addition, its goalwouldbeTong-tefmresults, notshort- frontier left to explore."term profits. Obviously, at first it would have to be " Dwight Holing

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