Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
OECD SKILLS STRATEGY: LATVIA
DIAGNOSTIC WORKSHOP
Samuel Kim
Project leader
OECD Centre for Skills
14 February 2019, Riga
1. Context Why do skills matter?
2. Diagnostic evidence What is the situation in Latvia?
3. Project How can the OECD Skills Strategy support
Latvia?
2
Overview
COGNITIVE AND
META-
COGNITIVE
SKILLS
TECHNICAL,
PROFESSIONAL
SKILLS
SOCIAL AND
EMOTIONAL
SKILLS
3
What do we mean by skills?
1. CONTEXT:WHY DO SKILLS MATTER
4
5
Skills matter for individual well-being
Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skill.
Unadjusted differences between the % of adults with high and low literacy proficiency reporting strong social outcomes, OECD average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Good to excellent
health
High levels of political
efficacy
Employed in labour
market
Participation in
volunteer activities
High levels of trust
%-points
Australia
Austria
CanadaChile
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Flanders (Belgium)France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Israel
Italy
JapanKoreaLithuania
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3
Lab
ou
rp
rod
uc
tiv
ity
(lo
g)
Mean use of reading skills at work
Adjusted:Slope: 0.774 (0.231)
R-squared: 0.261
And skills matter for national prosperity
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).
Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work, PIAAC 2012/2015Adjusted for literacy and numeracy proficiency
6
Several megatrends are affecting skills
GLOBALISATIONTECHNOLOGICAL
CHANGE
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
Rapid development of
new technologies
Emergence of new
forms of work
Expansion of sources
of learning, especially
online
More integrated world
economy than ever
Emergence of global
value chains, offshoring
and outsourcing
Increased vulnerability
of some workers
Large expected
decline in working-
age population
Ageing population
Growing number of
immigrants
The economy increasingly demands higher
levels of skills
Employment trends in Latvia by typical education requirements of occupations,
net and %-change 2005-2015
Source: OECD calculations based on CEDEFOP (2017), EU-CEDEFOP database: Employment trends.8
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-120 000
-100 000
-80 000
-60 000
-40 000
-20 000
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
Primary (ISCED97-1) Secondary and post-
secondary non-tertiary
(ISCED97-2+3+4)
Tertiary non-university
(ISCED97-5B)
Tertiary - university (ISCED97-
5A+6)
%Number of employees
Net change (left) %-change (right)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70%
Source: Nedelkoska and Quintini (2018)
Jobs at risk of Automation
Share of jobs at HIGH RISK (>70%) of automation and at SIGNIFICANT RISK (50-70%)
And a large share of jobs could be impacted by automation in the future
9
Moving towards a new model for skills
development and use
10
11
2019 OECD SKILLS STRATEGY FRAMEWORK
1011
2. DIAGNOSTIC EVIDENCE: WHAT IS THE SITUATION IN LATVIA?
12
13
The OECD Skills Strategy Dashboard:
Developing relevant skills
Priority 1: Strengthening
the skills outcomes of
students
Priority 2: Fostering a
culture of lifelong
learning
14
The OECD Skills Strategy Dashboard:
Putting skills to effective use
Priority 3: Improving
skills matches in the
labour market
Priority 4: Strengthening governance of the skills system
PRIORITY 1:
Strengthening the
skills outcomes of
students
15
Student outcomes are close to the OECD average but
Latvia has a low share of top-performers
PISA outcomes Latvia, neighbouring countries and OECD average, 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
Latvia Lithuania Slovak
Republic
Hungary Czech
Republic
Denmark OECD
average
Sweden Slovenia Germany Estonia Finland
%Share of top performers in at least one subject (Level 5 or 6)Share of low achievers in all three subjects (below Level 2)
16Source: PISA 2015 Database.
Equity is relatively high but there are some persistent
disparities between urban and rural areas
Source: PISA 2015 Database.
17
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
Science Reading Mathematics
Total Riga City Town Rural
PISA 2015 outcomes in Latvia according to school location
The shares of students choosing
vocational education is low
Source: OECD (2018), Education at a Glance 2018, Table B3.1. https://doi.org/10.1787/888933803349. 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80%
Share of first-time upper secondary graduates who
obtained a vocational qualification, 2016
There are some challenges concerning the
teaching workforce
19
Average age is 47
Low professional development
New teaching skills needed for
competency based curriculum
Low entrance requirements
Lack of teachers with adequate skills for
special needs children
20
PRIORITY 2:
Fostering a culture
of lifelong learning
21
A large share of adults has no or low
digital skills
Source: Eurostat (2018), Individuals' level of digital skills [isoc_sk_dskl_i], http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/tepsr_sp410_esmsip.htm.
% of adults who have no or low overall digital skills, 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40%
22
Interest in learning among adults is low
Source: Eurostat (2016),Adult Education Survey 2016, Distribution of the will to participate, or participate more, in education and training
Participants who are not willing to participate (further) in education and
training, 2016 (Adult Education Survey)
0102030405060708090
100
%
Respondents who already participated and did not want to participate more
Respondents who did not participate and did not want to participate
Adults in Latvia also face other barriers to
participate, most notably financial barriers
Source: Eurostat (2018), Adult Education Survey.
Barriers to participation for available EU countries, Share of adults not participating, 25-64 year-olds, 2016
23
0 20 40 60 80
Negative previous learning experience
No access to a computer or internet
Prerequisites
Health or age
Lack of support
Other personal reasons
Distance
No suitable education or training activity
Family responsibilities
Schedule
Cost
No need for (further) education or training
%
European Union Latvia
Not all groups are participating equally
in adult learning
Participation in formal or non-formal education, 2016 By gender, age, educational attainment, and urbanisation, Latvia and EU, 25-64 year-olds
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Tota
l
Ma
le
Fe
ma
le
25-3
4
35-4
4
35-4
4
45-5
4
55-6
4
Less
th
an
up
pe
r se
c.
Up
pe
r, p
ost
-se
c.
Tert
iary
ed
uc
atio
n
Citie
s
Tow
ns
an
d s
ub
urb
s
Ru
ral a
rea
s
Gender Age groups Educational attainment Urbanisation
%Latvia European Union
Source: Eurostat (2018), Adult Education Survey, Participation rate in education and training by sex [trng_aes_100]. 24
And participation strongly depends on
employment status and occupation
Participation in formal or non-formal education, 2016 By employment status and occupation, Latvia and EU, 25-64 year-olds
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Employed Unemployed Inactive Managers,
professionals,
technicians and
associate
professionals
Clerical support
workers, service
and sales
workers
Skilled manual
workers
Elementary
occupations
Labour Status Occupation
% Latvia European Union
Source: Eurostat (2018), Adult Education Survey, Participation rate in education and training by sex [trng_aes_100]. 25
The share of employees participating in
adult learning is relatively low
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%% of enterprises providing training, 2015 % of employees participation in CVT courses, 2015
Continued vocational training, enterprises and employees participating, 2015
26
PRIORITY 3:
Improving skills
matches in the
labour market
27
Latvia faces skills shortages in various
occupations, including STEM and Health
Source: Latvian Ministry of Economy (2018), Medium and Long term Labour Market Forecasts. 28
Forecasts of the labour force demand compared to supply
in 2025, by higher education fields of education
85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
Services
Humanities and arts
Social sciences, business
and law
Agriculture
Education
Health and social welfare
Life sciences, matchematics
and computing
Engineering, manufacturing
and construction
Supply
In excess Hard to find
Use of information about current and
future skills needs
Education policy
Migration policy
Social partners
Employment policy
Update occupational standards
Revise, design, allocate training
programs
Develop apprenticeship
programs
Update NQF & curricula
Information for students
on employment prospects
Decide course provision
and funding
Advise members on
skills to promote
Influence labour and
education policy
Fast track entry of
migrants with skills
needed by employers
Attract talent from
abroad to fill skill gaps
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Highly-educated All
Low-wage earners, share of tertiary educated and all employees, 2014
Share of employees earning less than two-thirds of the median gross hourly wages
Many highly-educated workers earn
low wages
Note: Includes employees in firms with 10 employees or more. Highly-educated employees are those with a tertiary education (levels 5-8).Source: Eurostat, Low-wage earners as a proportion of all employees (excluding apprentices) by educational attainment level 30
Latvia faces a declining population because
of high emigration rates
%
A. Emigration and immigration (2016) B. Net immigration (2016)
Source: Eurostat (2018), (demo_pjan, migr_emi2, migr_imm8)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
Emmigration Immigration
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
%
31
PRIORITY 4:
Strengthening
governance of
the skills system
32
Governance in Latvia is well developed
compared to the OECD average
33
Executive capacity, SGI-score 0-10, 2017
Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2018), SGI indicators, http://www.sgi-network.org/2018/.
4 5 6 7 8 9
Evidence-based Instruments
Societal Consultation
Implementation
Adaptability
Interministerial Coordination
Policy Communication
Organizational Reform
Latvia
OECD (unweighted) average
A WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT approach
is needed for skills policies
34
Stakeholders need to be engaged
35
Skills policies should be evidence-based
36
Financing arrangements should be
aligned and co-ordinated
37
3. PROJECTHOW CAN THE OECD SKILLS
STRATEGY SUPPORT LATVIA?
38
Making unique contributions in…
Mapping the
skills system
Identifying
policy priorities
Aligning
policies
Making policy
recommendations
39
Applied in 13 diverse countries…and counting
40
Korea
41
Employing a whole-of-government approach
for OECD Skills Strategy projects
Directorate for Education and Skills
Economics Department
Directorate for Employment, Labour
and Social Affairs
Directorate for Science, Technology and
Innovation
Centre for Tax Policy and Administration
Directorate for Public Governance and
Territorial Development
Local Employment, Skills and Social
Inclusion
OECD National project team
Ministry of Education and Science
Ministry of Economics
Ministry of Welfare
OECD Skills Strategy LatviaAssessment and Recommendations
And more…
Cross-sectoral Coordination Centre
Employers’ Confederation of Latvia
Latvian Confederation of Free Trade Unions.
42
Engaging stakeholders
Diagnostic Workshop
The Hague, Netherlands
12 May 2016
Regional Workshop
Madrid, Spain
3-4 November 2014
Diagnostic Workshop
Brussels, Belgium
15 May 2018
Active Learning Workshop
Seoul, South Korea
15 December 2015
Diagnostic Workshop
Vienna, Austria
24 April 2013
Diagnostic Workshop
Mexico City, Mexico
9 June 2016
Scoping activities
(Q3 2018)
Diagnostic phase
(Q4 2018)
Diagnostic phase
(Q1 2019)
Diagnostic phase (Q2
2019)
Diagnostic phase
(Q3 2019)
Launch(Q4 2019)
43
Project elements and timelines
Skills Strategy
Seminar
• Introduce skills
strategy
• Present
scoreboard
• Discuss reforms
and priorities
Technical Project
Team Meeting
• Discuss roles,
responsibilities
• Discuss
information
sharing
• Create
operational plan
Data Analysis
• Reviewing the
questionnaire
• Following up
in specific
areas
Workshop 1
• “Briefing pack”
presenting key
data
• Identify key
determinants of
skills policy
priorities
• Tailored
exercises and
presentations
by OECD
experts
Workshop 2
• Focus on
good
practices
• Refine
recommend
ations
• Identify
consideratio
ns for
implementati
on
Drafting of report
• Review draft
outline report
• Review full draft
• Approve final
version
Public event
• Launch of
Diagnostic
Report
• Raise public
awareness
• Develop broad
base of support
for future action
For more information
To discuss OECD’s work from the Centre for Skills and/or the
National Skills Strategies, please contact:
To learn more about the OECD’s work on skills visit: www.oecd.org/skills/
44
OECD SKILLS STRATEGY: LATVIA
DIAGNOSTIC WORKSHOP
Katharine Mullock
Labour market economist
OECD Directorate for Employment
and Social Affairs
14 February 2019, Riga
46
Diagnostic WorkshopTime Activity1. REGISTRATION
09:00-09:30 Registration, tea and coffee
2. WORKSHOP INTRODUCTION AND PRESENTATIONS
09:30-09:40 Welcoming words Latvia
09:40-09:50 European Commission Speech (tbc)
09:50-10:35 OECD welcoming words and presentation
10:35-10:45 OECD explaining the day & dynamics
3. WORKSHOP SESSIONS
11:00-12:00 Session 1a: Developing recommendations - Relevant factors
In small groups around tables outcomes the main factors affecting the priority area are discussed.
12:00-13:00 Lunch
13:00-14:05 Session 1b: Developing recommendations - Policy responses
Continuation of session 1a with focus on responding to these factors by developing recommendations
14:10-15:00 Session 2: Critical friends
Participants have the opportunity to respond to developed recommendations on different priority areas
15:05-16:00 Session 3: Refining recommendations
Based on input from the critical friends, groups from session 2 refine the developed recommendations for their priority area
16:00-16:20 Coffee break
4. WORKSHOP CLOSING
16:20-16:55 Plenary discussion: sharing conclusions
Share recommendations for each priority
16:55-17:00 OECD Reflections and closing Latvia
47
SESSIONS
1
2
React to diagnostic findings (briefing pack, presentation)
Developing recommendations – relevant factors (1a) Developing recommendations – policy responses (1b)
Critical friends – providing feedback to another priority area
3
P
Refining recommendations
Present group-specific recommendations and receive feedback
a) What are the main factors affecting the priority area?
b) How would you recommend to respond to the main factors affecting your priority area?
• What are your views on the recommendations developed by the other group?
• How does the feedback from critical friends and new perspectives affect the developed recommendations?
Table arrangements
Moderator
Notetaker
Edu
Edu
Union
Emp
NGov
LGov
HED
Other
• NGov: National government and subsidiary
institutions
• LGov: Local government
• Emp: Employers and employers associations
• Edu: Education institutions
• HED: Higher education institutions, researchers,
student representatives
• Union: Trade unions
• Other: non classified
Room 1
Logistical arrangements
Student
outcomes
12 2
1
3
1
2
12
Lifelong
learning
Skills
imbalancesGovernance
Room 2
Room 3
Room 4
3
Plenary
Plenary
Introductions
Presentations
Sessions 1, 2, 3
Closing
3
Logistical arrangements
Room 1
12 21 3 1 2 1 2
Governance
Room 2 Room 3 Room 4
3 3
Student outcomes Lifelong learning Skills imbalances
51
Diagnostic WorkshopTime Activity1. REGISTRATION
09:00-09:30 Registration, tea and coffee
2. WORKSHOP INTRODUCTION AND PRESENTATIONS
09:30-09:40 Welcoming words Latvia
09:40-09:50 European Commission Speech (tbc)
09:50-10:35 OECD welcoming words and presentation
10:35-10:45 OECD explaining the day & dynamics
3. WORKSHOP SESSIONS
11:00-12:00 Session 1a: Developing recommendations - Relevant factors
In small groups around tables outcomes the main factors affecting the priority area are discussed.
12:00-13:00 Lunch
13:00-14:05 Session 1b: Developing recommendations - Policy responses
Continuation of session 1a with focus on responding to these factors by developing recommendations
14:10-15:00 Session 2: Critical friends
Participants have the opportunity to respond to developed recommendations on different priority areas
15:05-16:00 Session 3: Refining recommendations
Based on input from the critical friends, groups from session 2 refine the developed recommendations for their priority area
16:00-16:20 Coffee break
4. WORKSHOP CLOSING
16:20-16:55 Plenary discussion: sharing conclusions
Share recommendations for each priority
16:55-17:00 OECD Reflections and closing Latvia