Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
OECD Employment Outlook 2013
Chapter 1. All in it together? The experience of different labour market groups
following the crisis Annex 1.A2. Further Material
The following pages provide supplementary material for the analysis presented in Chapter 1 of OECD Employment Outlook 2013. This material reflects data available as of May 2013.
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT PARIS, JULY 2013
Citation: OECD (2013), “All in it Together? The Experience of Different Labour Market Groups Following the Crisis – Further Material”, Annex of Chapter 1 of the OECD Employment Outlook 2013, OECD Publishing, Paris, available online at www.oecd.org/employment/outlook.
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Tables
Table 1.A2.1. Jobs gap in OECD countries ................................................................................................. 3 Table 1.A2.2. Effect of recessions on labour market outcomes, by age and sex ......................................... 4
Figures
Figure 1.A2.1. Evolution of non-employment since the onset of the crisis in selected OECD countries ... 5 Figure 1.A2.2. Evolution of non-employment by group since the onset of the crisis.................................. 7 Figure 1.A2.3. Evolution of youth non-employment since the onset of the crisis ....................................... 9 Figure 1.A2.4. Decomposition of the change in the inactivity of older workers in selected OECD
countries ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 1.A2.5. Decomposition of the change in the labour force participation rate of older workers
(aged 55-64) in OECD countries, 2000-12 ................................................................................................ 12
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AUS Australia ISR Israel CHE Switzerland AUT Austria ITA Italy TUR Turkey BEL Belgium JPN Japan GBR United Kingdom CAN Canada KOR Korea USA United States CHL Chile LUX Luxembourg EU27 European Union CZE Czech Republic MEX Mexico EA17 Euro area DNK Denmark NLD Netherlands EA15 Euro area (15) EST Estonia NZL New Zealand FIN Finland NOR Norway FRA France POL Poland DEU Germany PRT Portugal GRC Greece SVK Slovak Republic HUN Hungary SVN Slovenia ISL Iceland ESP Spain IRL Ireland SWE Sweden The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
3
Table 1.A2.1. Jobs gapa in OECD countries
a. The jobs gap is defined as the difference between actual employment and OECD estimates of potential employment.
b. OECD and euro area (15) are weighted averages of countries shown.
c. Aggregate of 15 OECD countries of the euro area.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Economic Outlook Database (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eo-data-en).
Country -specific
trough
Current
2012 Q4
Projected
2014 Q4
Country -specific
trough
Current
2012 Q4
Projected
2014 Q4
OECDb
-2.0 -2.4 -1.9 14 728 13 500 10 432
Euro area (15)b,c
-2.0 -4.3 -5.2 5 442 7 427 8 674
Australia -0.2 -2.0 -1.4 -137 40 -21
Austria -0.5 -1.4 -1.6 -24 7 18
Belgium 0.0 -0.8 -2.1 -121 -91 -32
Canada -2.7 -1.5 -0.9 129 -75 -168
Chile -3.1 4.9 3.2 279 -222 -98
Czech Republic -1.0 -3.4 -4.0 127 248 279
Denmark -0.7 -4.4 -4.2 73 177 171
Estonia -10.1 -5.3 -3.4 15 -13 -25
Finland -3.3 -4.1 -4.4 28 48 57
France -0.5 -1.2 -2.3 1 208 1 402 1 686
Germany 0.4 1.9 2.2 14 -588 -693
Greece -21.5 -22.1 -24.3 914 936 984
Hungary -3.3 -0.5 -0.8 365 262 277
Iceland -6.0 -7.4 -6.4 3 5 4
Ireland -13.5 -15.5 -16.1 83 119 133
Israel 0.6 2.2 2.1 284 266 283
Italy -2.0 -3.2 -4.6 1 915 2 201 2 530
Japan -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 17 159 -289
Korea -0.7 0.4 1.2 58 -218 -391
Lux embourg 1.0 -3.0 -4.9 -9 5 11
Mex ico -2.9 -3.0 -1.1 -848 -857 -1 760
Netherlands -1.3 -3.5 -5.6 138 333 510
New Zealand -2.0 -4.6 -3.3 -457 -417 -454
Norw ay -2.9 -2.4 -1.6 11 0 -22
Poland 1.5 1.6 0.6 112 87 245
Portugal -10.1 -11.5 -14.1 345 409 526
Slov ak Republic 0.5 -3.9 -3.9 -226 -120 -119
Slov enia -0.8 -5.9 -7.1 -18 33 45
Spain -11.0 -19.5 -21.2 1 180 2 746 3 045
Sw eden -1.8 -3.0 -3.1 -23 26 34
Sw itzerland -0.2 -0.9 -1.7 205 245 281
Turkey -1.8 8.9 7.8 1 370 -792 -468
United Kingdom -2.5 -2.4 -2.8 330 300 441
United States -4.8 -4.3 -1.8 7 387 6 837 3 415
Change in the jobs gap since the start of the
crisis
%-points change
Change in the jobs gap since the start of the
crisis
Thousands
4
Table 1.A2.2. Effect of recessions on labour market outcomes, by age and sex
Coefficient on the additional effect of the global financial crisis 16 quarters after the start of the crisisa
***, **, *: Statistically significant at 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively. Robust standard errors in parenthesis.
a. All regressions include time fixed effects.
b. The dependent variable is the difference at time t+n and time t of the log of the labour market outcomes for the selected group minus the difference of the log for the reference group (25-54).
Source: OECD estimates based on national labour force surveys.
Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment
All persons (aged 15-64)
0.877 0.403 -0.459 0.850 0.554 -0.132
(0.905) (0.740) (0.491) (0.883) (1.089) (0.143)
1.384 0.684 -0.808 1.288 0.749 -0.509
(1.275) (1.107) (0.825) (1.235) (1.350) (0.526)
Youth (aged 15-24)
0.672 0.233 -0.051 0.884 0.466 0.126
(0.391) (0.185) (0.027) (0.535) (0.379) (0.069)
1.462 0.761 -0.689 1.645 0.938 -0.581
(0.762) (0.543) (0.348) (0.922) (0.706) (0.304)
Older persons (aged 55-64)
1.996** 1.625** -0.708 0.318 0.121 -0.286
(2.162) (2.056) (1.009) (0.403) (0.180) (0.436)
2.788*** 2.320*** -1.020 0.636 0.324 -0.553
(2.995) (3.085) (1.353) (0.770) (0.472) (0.770)
Women (aged 15-64)
0.601 0.302 -0.268 0.840 0.680 0.068
(0.717) (0.459) (0.331) (1.046) (1.200) (0.080)
1.077 0.630 -0.587 1.208 0.904 -0.231
(1.108) (0.820) (0.689) (1.365) (1.439) (0.257)
Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment
Youth (aged 15-24)
-0.003 0.002 0.009 0.005 0.003 -0.038
(0.079) (0.080) (0.198) (0.167) (0.132) (0.861)
0.009 0.007 0.020 0.018 0.008 -0.033
(0.243) (0.295) (0.453) (0.558) (0.371) (0.746)
Older persons (aged 55-64)
0.030* 0.031** 0.050 -0.005 -0.003 0.067
(1.776) (1.978) (0.887) (0.311) (0.193) (1.253)
0.041** 0.042*** 0.041 -0.003 0.001 0.060
(2.520) (2.822) (0.707) (0.162) (0.035) (1.046)
Women (aged 15-64)
0.001 0.003 0.067 0.005 0.009 0.073
(0.091) (0.277) (1.319) (0.596) (1.200) (1.489)
0.002 0.005 0.080 0.005 0.010 0.096*
(0.148) (0.490) (1.485) (0.559) (1.382) (1.849)
Additional effect relativ e to all
prev ious recessions
Additional effect relativ e to
recessions in the 70s/80s/90s
Additional effect relativ e to all
prev ious recessions
Additional effect relativ e to
recessions in the 70s/80s/90s
B. Augmented model that controls for linear
country-specific trends
A. Baseline model
Additional effect relativ e to all
prev ious recessions
Additional effect relativ e to
recessions in the 70s/80s/90s
Additional effect relativ e to all
prev ious recessions
Additional effect relativ e to
recessions in the 70s/80s/90s
D. Augmented difference-in-difference model that
controls for linear country-specific trendsb
Additional effect relativ e to all
prev ious recessions
Additional effect relativ e to
recessions in the 70s/80s/90s
Additional effect relativ e to all
prev ious recessions
Additional effect relativ e to
recessions in the 70s/80s/90s
Additional effect relativ e to all
prev ious recessions
Additional effect relativ e to
recessions in the 70s/80s/90s
C. Difference-in-difference modelb
5
Figure 1.A2.1. Evolution of non-employment since the onset of the crisis in selected OECD countries
Percentage-points change in the number of persons in a given labour market statusa as a share of the working-age
population, Q4 2007-Q4 2012
OECDa
European Union
Euro area
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israelb,c
Italy
Japan
Koreab
Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4%
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5%
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1%
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3%
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5%
-2
0
2
4
6%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12%
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3%
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5%
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14%
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3%
-2
0
2
4
6
8%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12%
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5%
-1
0
1
2
3
4%
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5%
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5%
6
Figure 1.A2.1. Evolution of non-employment since the onset of the crisis in selected OECD countries (cont.)
Percentage-points change in the number of persons in a given labour market statusa as a share of the working-age
population, Q4 2007-Q4 2012
Mexicoc
Netherlandsc
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugalc
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
a. OECD is the weighted average of 33 countries (excluding Chile).
b. Short-term unemployment refers to total unemployment for Israel (2012) and for Korea.
c. Series adjusted to take into account the break in series: 2010 for Mexico and the Netherlands, 2011 for Portugal. And 2012 for Israel.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term labour Market Statistics Database (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/lfs-lms-data-en) and national labour force surveys.
Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3%
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5%
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3%
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14%
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5%
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5%
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3%
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3%
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5%
7
Figure 1.A2.2. Evolution of non-employment by group since the onset of the crisis
Percentage-points change of the number of persons in a given labour market status as a share of the corresponding population of the corresponding group as a deviation from the population-wide change in OECD countries,
a
Q4 2007-Q4 2012b
Women (aged 15-64)
Youth (aged 15-24)
Older workers (aged 55-64)
Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14%
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4%
8
Figure 1.A2.2. Evolution of non-employment by group since the onset of the crisis (cont.)
Percentage-points change of the number of persons in a given labour market status as a share of the corresponding population of the corresponding group as a deviation from the population-wide change in OECD countries,
a
Q4 2007-Q4 2012b
Low-skilledd (aged 25-64)
High-skilled
d (aged 25-64)
a. OECD is the weighted average of 33 countries (excluding Chile) for the statistics by gender, of 31 countries for the statistics by
age (excluding Australia, Chile and New Zealand) and of 29 countries for the statistics by education (excluding Australia, Chile, Japan, Korea and New Zealand)
b. Q4 2007-Q4 2011 for Israel.
c. Short-term unemployment refers to total unemployment.
d. Low-skilled refers to persons without upper secondary education and high-skilled to persons with a tertiary education.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term labour Market Statistics Database (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/lfs-lms-data-en) and national labour force surveys.
Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10%
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5%
9
Figure 1.A2.3. Evolution of youth non-employment since the onset of the crisis
A. Decomposition of the change in non-employment rate
Percentage-point change of the number of youth (aged 15-24) in a given labour market status as a share of the population aged 15-24, Q4 200-Q4 2012
c
B. Decomposition of the change in the OECD
e non-employment rate
Percentage-points change of the number of youth (aged 15-24) in a given labour market status as a share of the population aged 15-24, Q4 2007-Q4 2012
Note: Countries are shown by ascending order of the youth non-employment rate in Panel A.
a. The NEET rate is defined as the share of the youth population not in employment, education or training.
b. The enrolment rate is defined as the share of the youth population in education or training.
c. Q1 2008-Q4 2012 for Norway.
d. Series adjusted to take into account the break in series: 2010 for Mexico and the Netherlands and 2011 for Portugal.
e. OECD is the weighted average of 31 countries (excluding Chile, Israel and Korea).
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term labour Market Statistics Database (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/lfs-lms-data-en) and national labour force surveys.
Non-employment rate NEET rate (a) Enrolment rate (b)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
TU
R
DE
U
AU
T
HU
N
ES
T
CH
E
PO
L
JPN
NLD
(d)
BE
L
SW
E
CZ
E
FR
A
FIN
ME
X (d
)
OE
CD
(e)
EU
27
AU
S
CA
N
GB
R
EA
17
ITA
US
A
NO
R
ISL
SV
K
DN
K
SV
N
GR
C
NZ
L
PR
T (d
)
IRL
ES
P
%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4
%
10
Figure 1.A2.4. Decomposition of the change in the inactivity of older workers in selected OECD countries
Annual average percentage-points change since 2000a of the number of persons aged 55-64 in a given labour market status as a share of persons aged 55-64
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Franceb
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Mexico
Inactivity rate Retirement rate Disability rate Rate of inactivity for other reasons
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0%
n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
%
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
%
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
n.a.
-14-12-10
-8-6-4-2024
%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10%
n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2%
11
Figure 1.A2.4. Decomposition of the change in the inactivity of older workers in selected OECD countries (cont.)
Annual average percentage-points change since 2000a of the number of persons aged 55-64 in a given labour market status as a share of persons aged 55-64
Netherlands
Norway
Polandc
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
n.a.: Not available.
a. 2001 for the Slovak Republic; 2004 for France; and 2005 for Mexico and Spain.
b. Category "Other reasons" includes disability reasons.
c. Since the beginning of 2006 all disability pensions for persons who had reached the retirement age has been automatically converted into the old-age pensions.
Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force surveys.
Inactivity rate Retirement rate Disability rate Rate of inactivity for other reasons
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5%
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4%
-12-10
-8-6-4-20246
%
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6%
n.a.
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5%
n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2%
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2%
12
Figure 1.A2.5. Decomposition of the change in the labour force participation rate of older workers (aged 55-64) in OECD countries, 2000-12
a
Percentage-points change by sex and educational attainment
a. 2005-12 for Mexico and 2006-12 for Turkey.
b. Data adjusted to take into account the new data collection mode initiated in 2011.
c. OECD is the weighted average of the 28 countries shown.
Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force surveys.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%Between group effect Within group effect Total
![LABOUR LOSING TO CAPITAL SUPPORTING MATERIAL FOR CHAPTER 3 ... 3 web annex.pdf · 2012 OECD Employment Outlook – Supporting Material for Chapter 3 6 [A2.2] is the within-component,](https://img.pdfslide.us/doc/110x75/5ad2b42b7f8b9afa798cfd3d/labour-losing-to-capital-supporting-material-for-chapter-3-3-web-annexpdf2012.jpg)
