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OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen Research programme on: New Approaches to Poverty Reduction in Development October 2000 CD/DOC(2000)10

OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 1: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE

Working Paper No. 166(Formerly Technical Paper No. 166)

THE HIPC INITIATIVE:TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES

by

Daniel Cohen

Research programme on:New Approaches to Poverty Reduction in Development

October 2000CD/DOC(2000)10

Page 2: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. PREFACE ......................................................................................................... 5

II. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................... 7

III. THRESHOLDS OF SOLVENCY ....................................................................... 9

IV. EQUILIBRIUM MARKET PRICES .................................................................... 13

V. PRICING THE HIPC DEBT ............................................................................... 16

VI. ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF THE HIPC INITIATIVE.................................... 21

VII. IMPACT ON GROWTH ..................................................................................... 24

VIII. POLICY IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................... 26

IX. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 28

X. APPENDIX ........................................................................................................ 29

XI. BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................... 35

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PREFACE

The HIPC Debt Initiative, the first comprehensive approach to reducing the externaldebt of the world’s most Highly Indebted Poor Countries, was agreed by governmentsaround the world in 1996 and supported by the G7 Cologne Summit in 1999.

In this paper, Daniel Cohen explains why the real debt relief provided by the HIPCDebt Initiative may be much lower than anticipated. The paper allows an assessment ofthe true amount of resources released by donor countries and of the reduced debt burdenof debtor countries by employing a market perspective, rather than the common facevalue or net present value calculations, on outstanding HIPC debt. The market perspectivetries to establish a realistic account of the probability that the debt in question would nothave been serviced in the absence of the HIPC debt initiative. As the eligible countries arecharacterised by very high debt burdens (however measured), the implicit market value oftheir liabilities is far below face value and net present value.

The author’s findings warn against scaling down aid flows on the grounds of debtrelief granted under the HIPC initiative. If clearing donors’ books were to be combined withscaling down new aid flows, the HIPC initiative would become detrimental to the eligibledebtor countries. This would be very bad news for the poor of the world.

Donors should, instead, split the accounting of the HIPC debt initiative into twoelements: a loss commensurate to the implied discount on the face value of claims, newflows for the remainder. In addition, the paper provides suggestions for arranging debtbuy-back schemes at pre-fixed prices mutually agreed by debtors and donors.

Daniel Cohen is a Senior Consultant at the Development Centre and a Professor atthe École Normale Supérieure, Paris. The research which led to this highly relevant paperfor all countries concerned with severe indebtedness, was carried out in the context of theCentre’s research on Capital Flows, Financial Crises and Development.

Jorge Braga de MacedoPresident,

OECD Development CentreOctober 2000

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6

Résumé

Selon ce Document technique, l’évaluation de l'initiative PPTE (Pays Pauvres Très Endettés) estfaussée par le fait que — contrairement à l'accord Brady — elle ne prend pas en compte la“valeur de marché” de la remise de dette. La “valeur de marché” exacte est celle qui intègre lerisque de non-paiement : arriérés, rééchelonnements et refinancements “contraints” dedifférentes natures.

A partir d'une analyse économétrique des débiteurs à revenu intermédiaire des années 80, ledocument affirme que l'initiative est à peu près dix fois moins généreuse que ce que pourraitlaisser penser sa valeur faciale comptable.

Abstract

The paper develops the view that the perspective on the HIPC initiative is distorted by the factthat -contrary to the Brady deal itself- it lacks all perspective on the “market value” of the debtwhich is written down. The appropriate “market value” is one that takes account of the risk ofnon-payment: arrears, rescheduling and “constrained” refinancing of various sorts. Buildingupon econometric evidence that relies on middle income debtors in the eighties, the paper arguesthat the initiative is about ten times less generous than face value accounting would suggest.

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Page 7: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 9: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 14: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 15: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 16: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 17: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 18: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 19: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 20: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 21: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 22: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 23: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 24: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 25: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 26: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 28: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 29: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 31: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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Page 32: OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE · 2016-03-29 · OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 166 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 166) THE HIPC INITIATIVE: TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES by Daniel Cohen

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