OECD Bilateral Trade Database - by Industry and by End-use (BTDIxE)

S. Zhu, N. Yamano and A. CimperDirectorate for Science

Technology and Industry

WPTGS – 8th November 2011(Colin Webb)

Why BTDIxE ?

• To better understand structural changes in international trade

• Contribute to analyses of global production networks, regional integration etc. via linking of national Input-Output tables e.g. work of CIIE

• Input into OECD Trade in Value Added project• General tool for empirical analyses to address

policy issues in areas of Trade, Industry, infrastructure, environment, innovation …

• Replaces existing OECD Bilateral Trade by industry Database (BTD)

Coverage

• Exports and imports of goods, 1988-2010

• Countries (reporters and partners)

– 34 OECD countries– 30 non-Members to cover (or complete) BRIICS / EU27

/ G20 / ASEAN9 / CEFTA– Two additional partners = Rest of World and Unspecified

• Industries – About 40 activities mainly covering agriculture, mining

and manufacturing: generally 2-digit ISIC Rev.3

+ 4 technology intensity groups

+ 8 categories of waste, scrap, recycled goods

Household consumption Industrial capital goodsFood and beverages (111) Food and beverages (112)

Industrial supplies (21)Fuels and lubricants (31)

Food and beverages (121) Food and beverages (122)

Industrial supplies (22)Parts and components:

transport equipment (53)Parts and components:

capital goods (42)

Non-industrial transport equipment (522)Non durable consumer goods (63)Semi-durable consumer goods (62)

Durable consumer goods for households (61)

Capital goods (41)Industrial transport equipment (521)

Other Goods n.e.c (7)

Durable personal consumer goods e.g. personal computers (part of 61)Mobile phones (part of 41)Passenger motor cars (51)

Fixed line phones (part of 62)

SNA End-use categories

Intermediate inputsFinal demand goods

Other

Prod

ucts

char

acte

ristic

s

Primary products

Processed unfinished

Fuels and lubricants e.g. gasoline (32)

Processed finished

Packed medicaments (part of 63)

Broad Economic Categories (BEC) codes in parentheses

End-use categories

BTDIxE end-use categories • 3 SNA end-use categories

– Intermediate inputs – Household consumption – Capital goods

• 5 mixed end-uses – packed medicaments – personal computers– passenger cars – phones (fixed and mobile)– valuables

+ other n.e.c(fuels and lubricants currently allocated to intermediate goods)

Sources and Methods

• Source = OECD ITCS / UN Comtrade annual merchandise trade statistics (HS 6 digit level = approx. 5000 products)

• Standard conversion keys from HS to ISIC and HS to End-use category (EUC) developed for each version of HS (1988, 1996, 2002, 2007) and applied to data according to reported HS. Thus, 8 conversion keys

• Specific adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports

• Treatment of confidential trade at 2-digit HS level

• Other adjustments (country specific)

Generation of conversion keys used for BTDIxEvia existing UNSD correspondence tables

origin via origin via

HS 1988 OECDUNSD HS88 - HS96UNSD HS96 - ISIC 3 OECD

UNSD HS88 - HS96

OECD HS96 - EUC *

HS 1996 UNSD UNSD HS96 - ISIC3 OECD * UNSD HS96 - BEC (part)

HS 2002 OECDUNSD HS02 - ISIC 3.1UNSD ISIC 3.1 - ISIC 3 OECD ** UNSD HS02 - BEC (part)

HS 2007 OECDUNSD HS07 - HS02

UNSD HS02 - ISIC 3.1UNSD ISIC 3.1 - ISIC 3

OECDUNSD HS07 - BEC (part)

OECD HS02 - EUC ** (part)UNSD HS07 - HS02

From

ISIC Rev. 3 End use categories (EUC)

To

BEC (part): Certain HS products have been allocated to end-uses different to those implied by UNSD HS BEC end-use conversions

Confidential trade

• Some confidential trade at the 2-digit HS chapter level can be allocated to ISIC and/or end-use

• Generally apparent as the difference between 2-digit HS data and sum of 6-digit components

• In the past, such confidential trade, and other “special transactions”, reported (in OECD ITCS) with codes nnCF00 or nnEUxx – for 2-digit chapter nn

• Used less frequently in recent years and not present in the ‘official’ UNSD HS-HS, HS-ISIC, HS-BEC correspondences (only regular HS 6-digit codes used)

• Therefore, in BTDIxE, differences between 2-digit and sum(6-digit) data are calculated (code nnADJS) before conversion keys applied

From products to industries and end-uses – examples

DescriptionProduct

(HS 2002)Industry

(ISIC Rev. 3)End-use category

Flour 1101.00 1531 1 Intermediate demands

High Voltage fuse 8535.10 3120 1 Intermediate demands

Milk processed 0401.10 1520 2 Household consumption

Man/boy’s Shirt 6105.10 1810 2 Household consumption

Wearing apparel confidential 61CF.00 1810 2 Household consumption

Truck 8704.21 3410 3 Capital goods

Computer with unitary housing structure 8471.41 3000 5 Personal computers

Gasoline motor vehicle less than 1000cc 8703.21 3403 6 Passenger cars

… … … …

Chemicals products confidential 37CF.00 2429 9 Others

Confidential trade 99EU.90 na 9 Others

Hong Kong re-exports

• Adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports to get better estimates of bilateral flows to and from China

• Use re-exports by origin and destination from Hong Kong Customs and Statistics Department

• Allows for China Hong Kong China caseHong Re-exports - Top 10 flows 2010 as % of total re-exportsFrom To 2000 2005 2010China China 6.4 17.0 23.9China USA 20.4 14.1 9.9Japan China 7.5 7.3 6.2Chinese Taipei China 5.4 6.3 6.1China Japan 5.2 4.8 3.8Korea China 2.6 2.9 3.3China Germany 3.3 3.1 2.5USA China 3.4 2.2 2.3Malaysia China 1.2 1.7 2.1China UK 3.5 2.7 1.9

Other adjustments Done• Extending estimates for some reporters e.g.

– Belgium, 1988-92 : using Belgium-Luxembourg figures– South Africa, 1992-99 : South Africa Customs Union (SACU)– Chinese Taipei, from 2007: “Asia not elsewhere specified”

Desired• Re-export adjustments for other major hubs such as Netherlands

and Singapore• Country specific adjustments e.g. for UK to deal with distortions in

ICT trade (mid 2000s) due to EU VAT fraud• Dealing with second-hand goods not identified in HS either for re-

use e.g. transport equipment, or recycling e.g. discarded PCs

Next steps

• Finish comparisons between BTDIxE and similar results from WIOD project

understand origins of any differences • Finalise BTDIxE documentation and publish as OECD

STI Working Paper(s)

Zhu, Yamano and Cimper, 2011 (forthcoming)

• Release data on OECD.STAT

replacing existing BTD• Use for inter-country I-O analyses (e.g. TiVA) • Identify areas for improvement• Dealing with ISIC Rev. 4

World trade by end-use, 1990-2010

14

Source: OECD BTDIxE, 2011 (total of imports)

World trade by category and by originating region 1995

Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard, 2011

USA(557)

JPN(434)

EU15(1 886)

Other OECD(677)

CHN(148)

BRIIS(197)

ROW(864)

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

Personal computers & passenger cars Household consumptionCapital goods Other intermediate goodsMining and primary energy inputs Intermediate goods for assembly

1995

Value of total exports, billions of USD, current exchange rates

World trade by category and by originating region 2009

Source: www.oecd.org/sti/scoreboard

USA(949)

JPN(560)

EU15(3 785)

Other OECD(1 950)

CHN(1 529)

BRIIS(706)

ROW(2 540)

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Personal computers & passenger cars Household consumptionCapital goods Other intermediate goodsMining and primary energy inputs Intermediate goods for assembly

2009

Value of total exports, billions of USD, current exchange rates