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168 169
I
21

. (National Intelligence Council, NIC)
2012 ‘ 2030: (Global Trends
2030: Alternative Worlds)’ 15-20
50% . 2035
.




(Herberg 2014). 1973 1 2012
1/4 1/2
(Colgan 2013).
2009

.
2009 .

OPEC 2014
1
.
This study examines oil and gas market change led by shale gas devel-
opment in the US and its impacts on China’s energy security and its
energy strategies. It also explores the implications of changing China’s energy
security strategies for international politics. The study focuses on the China’s
energy security strategy which is affected by shale gas development of the
United States and on its implications for international politics of energy.
The U.S. and China have been competing over influence in Asia. Energy
security concerns such as securing supply of oil and gas and safety of en-
ergy transportation route have been the sourcesof conflict in the South China
Sea and global competition between the U.S. and China. Shale gas develop-
ment in the U.S. resulted in falling of oil prices and affected international oil
and gas market structure, which led the U.S. and China to become more
cooperative in dealing with energy security.
China’s energy security strategy focuseson the increase of influence
over regional countries through cooperation with neighboring countries. For
example, Chinese ‘one belt one road’ strategy stresses investment in infra-
structure of emerging countries and energy cooperation with them. With the
increasing competition between the U.S. and China over influence on emerg-
ing countries, it is necessary to build a more comprehensive energy gover-
nance to mitigate the competition.
key words Energy Security, Shale Gas,
Energy Governance, Energy Competition and Cooperation,
One belt, One road
170 171

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. 1975
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. 64% .


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2014). ,
, , ,
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3.78 tcm(BP 3.3
tcm) 1.8% . BP
2013 3 3m3(24
09 ), 117.2 Bcm(85.5 ), 161.6
Bcm(117.97 ). 2012 12 ‘
12 5 (“”)’ ,

.

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,
.

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,
.
174 175
‘ 12 5 ’ ‘12.5’
.
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( 2015)
2020
2025 , 2025( )
2030
(Cheung 2015).
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0.6% .
.

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. ,
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. , ,
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2015 41 Bcm, 32 Bcm
15 Bcm .
2011
21.3% 2020 35%
. 2011-35
(International Energy Agengy, IEA) 1.9%
2.23% , IEA 1.4%
1.97% (China Energy Outlook
2015).
82% , 20
75-80% .
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, (18%),
(5.1%), , ,
. (2014-20)
66%
. 2012
12 ‘ 12 5 ’
.
176 177
70
60
50
2020 2035
. 2020

(Xu 2014).
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.
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( 2014, 70).
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30
20
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100
90
80
70
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2020 20%
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2013 2014
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* : $/bbl : Petronet
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), , , , ,
.
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m3 2014 32m3 .

()
. 1,000m3,
2015 50, 32m3
(The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies 2014;
2015).
12 5 ’ 2015
, 30-50
50-80 , 600 Bcm,
200 Bcm , 6.5 Bcm
( 2014, 79).
2

. 2015 1,300
270 (31)
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1)

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50% .
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2m3 6 .
.
(Energy Information Administration, EIA)
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2015).
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2014 32m3 , 1 1m3
.
. ‘13.5 ’ 2015 65m3, 2020
30m3.
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MOU , 2010 -
3 2014 6 Sinopec Frac-Tec
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, . 2014 6
SPT Energy Halliburton Xinjiang HTDT
, .
Anton Oilfield Service 2010 Halliburton,
Schlumberger , 2012 6 Schlumberger Anton Oilfield
Service 20.1% ( 2015;
2015).
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2015 1,080
2018 1,200 , 2035 1,560
. 2015
3% 5.34 (2014 5.18 ) .
.
,
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1 6,000 . 2020
70% .
GDP 2.5%
60% . 2000 30% 2005 35.7%,
2010 52.1% 2013 59%(564 )
. 12 5 2015
61% 2020 70%
.
3.
1)
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. 2012
390 460
1,250 .
2.1
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( 2014, 70).
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. 2011 2 .
4. (1993-2016)
*: million barrels per day : Energy Information Administration and Short-Term Energy Outlook(May 2015)


2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030
203 202.9 207.5 208.1 210 200
440.4 464.1 490.1 507.4 510 600
* :
.
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2009 2 .
2010 50%
.

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8.6%) 2 2013 1
(EIA 2015a) 2014

(Rapoza 2013).
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.
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( 2015). 2014
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) 2 2012 8 2012
3,500 . 2014
1.41 ,
3.07 . 2020 8,500
( 100 ) (
2014, 73). (Sinopec)
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(Bishop 2015; 2015).
, .
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.
60 ,
51
. 1/4 ()
2014 150 , 2020 130
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2)
. EIA 2016
1.8 , 2030
.
BP 2025
, 2027
3.

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* : $/
: EIA(2015b)
.
4.
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,
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,
2000
.
,
(China
National Offshore Oil Corporation, CNOOC) 2014
Block 17-2 .

2000 27.2 Bcm 2013
117.1 Bcm 9.1% 2014
132.9 Bcm . 2015 219 Bcm, 2020
411 Bcm . 2020
3 800 ( 2015). 2015
. 2015 4
740 ( 1/13)
, 720
(Kaletsky 2015). ,

.
2015 7
7 29% 3,071 (2 4,260 )
. 2014 12
3,037 (2 3,992 )
(
2015).

2-3
.
,


( 2015).
,
. (2015a)
, 2007 1,363.2
2013 979.2 .
190 191
2013 25% 53 Bcm
, 31.6%
(CNPC 2014, 9). 52.8% 28 Bcm PNG, 47.2%
25 Bcm( 1,800 ) LNG. PNG
25 Bcm, 3 Bcm,
. LNG
(680 , 38%), (360 , 20%), (270
, 15%), (240 , 14%) . 2013
25% 530m3
30% . PNG 280m3, LNG
250m3(Herberg 2014, 65).
III
1993
. 1993
,
. 2005

, 2010
200 Bcm, 30 Bcm (
2015a).
2012 4.

. 2000-13 15.7%,
12.0%. 2013 167.5 Bcm,
2014 190 Bcm 2015 35%
( 2015).
2011 1,500m3 30%
400m3. 2013 1,670m3
13.9% , 1,170m3 8.6%
. 2015
2,300m3, 2019 3,150m3 .

2030 4
. 2030 4 7,500
, 39% 1 8,500 (PNG 1
700 , LNG 7,900 ). PNG 2013 1 1,800
2020 2,300 , 2030 3 5,000
. LNG 2013 1,800 2020 4,600
, LNG 9 2020
23 ( 2014, 77).
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.
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.
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194 195
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(Cheung 2015).


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2.

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.
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Energy Administration, NEA) 2014 12 25-26
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2015 . 2015
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2015 1 (EIA 2015b).
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1/4 (
2015a).
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(Yadavaran) 50% . CNOOC 2006
22 7,000 2008
(AKPO) 45% ,
6 .
4 --
, -, -,
.
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2035 15%
(Xu 2014). 2015 60%
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, 35% 2020
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: (2009)
1)

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90 60
( 2015).
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2010
. 2010 136 2013
210 42 .


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(EIA 2015).
. , ,
, ,
.
: EAI, Facts Global Energy, Global Trade Information Services Inc.

: (2015a) .
America), (Merrill Lynch) 10%
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2015).
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(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, AIIB)
.
2015 5 (WTI)
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62.61( 2015a). 2015
50-70 ( 2015).

50-80 .
IV


.
.
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2014 2 3
. ()()()
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. 2013 43.9(IEA
151).
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2020 8,500
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2010 .
,


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.
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8 2012
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, 23
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(
2012).

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5 8 70
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, 32 .
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: , http://www.dokdocenter.org/dokdo_news/index.cgi?action=detail&number=9115&t
hread=26r04r01
218 219
5
,
. 30 30 Bcm
,
.
,

.
(
2015).
.
CNPC 2014 5 21
(CNPC 2014) 2018 30 380
(4,000 ) .
23%,
16% .
550 , 220
.

()
.
.
.

,
.
4.

2014 5 - - ’, 2018
30
38 Bcm
2013 10 CNPC Gazprom
2013 3 CNPC Gazprom
2012 12 CNPC Gazprom ’
2012 6 -
2011 10 - 16
2009 6 - MOU’ . 0
2014 2015 70Bcm

2008 -
2006 3 - MOU ’, 2011
30 60-80 Bcm
2004 10 CNPC Gazprom
: (2014)
V
.
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,

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(Herberg 2014).


222 223
.


(Zhou 2015).
.


. IEA
,
G20
(Herberg 2014, 26-27) .

.
.
,

. (
)

.
.

.
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