October 22, 2013

JEFFERSON CITYLong Range Facility

Planning Meeting

Committee Members

INTRODUCTIONS

No cell phones

No predetermined solutions

Respect ALL comments

Work towards 100% participation

Work towards consensus

No side bars

Attend ALL sessions

Honor time Commitments

GROUP NORMS

Preston Smith

2013 Demographic

Report

Demographics Study and Enrollment Projections

Preston Smith

Principal Owner

Business Information Services, LLC

Our credentials

Completed more than 200 studies and school district projects in 11 states since 2004.• 10 years as a reporter, 5 years in Washington

• Master’s in Public Administration and Statistics

• 2 years as a performance auditor for

City of Kansas City.

• 10 years as a data manager

Population Trends, 1970-2010During the last 40 years, population in the district has dispersed beyond the city’s core.

Summary DemographicsHere’s the distribution of the students for this year. They follow closely the distribution of schools

Summary DemographicsAmong the area districts, only Blair Oaks has had a higher enrollment growth

Summary DemographicsSince 2007, the district’s enrollment has increased steadily.

7,382

7,726

7,866

7,984

8,206 8,2058,270

8,4928,543

8,679 8,6958,736

8,572

8,3398,404

8,284 8,2638,228 8,210

8,2688,235 8,221

8,311

8,490

8,695 8,690

8,8808,918

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jefferson City School District K-12 Enrollment(1986-87 to 2013-14)

Population Trends: Erratic Kindergarten enrollment

Additional Facts• The private school enrollment in the district is the highest we’ve seen: 28%

• For every 27.4 people who moved to the district between 2000 and 2010, the district gained only one new student.

2000 Census

2000-01 Enrollment

% of Census to Enrollment

2010 Census

2009-10 Enrollment

% of Population to

Enrollment

Under 1 yrs 820 9291 yr olds 945 9612 yr olds 910 9643 yr olds 820 1,0184 yr olds 1,065 968Kindergarten 810 654 80.74% 959 732 76.33%1st Grade 880 651 73.98% 974 673 69.10%2nd Grade 970 633 65.26% 901 641 71.14%3rd Grade 920 652 70.87% 895 653 72.96%4th Grade 990 659 66.57% 867 614 70.82%5th Grade 780 644 82.56% 910 618 67.91%6th Grade 990 655 66.16% 860 622 72.33%7th Grade 895 611 68.27% 888 680 76.58%8th Grade 785 650 82.80% 924 640 69.26%9th Grade 975 664 68.10% 881 691 78.43%10th Grade 985 760 77.16% 876 653 74.54%11th Grade 820 569 69.39% 908 644 70.93%12th Grade 820 602 73.41% 846 577 68.20%Total (K-12) 11,620 8,404 72.32% 11,689 8,438 72.19%

Comparison of 2000 Census and 2010 Census Population

and Jefferson City School District Enrollment

Enrollment Trends• More than twice the percentage of new students come from private schools in 2013-14 than in 2006-07

• Seven schools had triple-digit percentage increases in at least one minority group since 2008.

• The District’s Diversity Index is predicted to increase from 32.9 to 36.8 by 2017.

Additional Facts• When employment in the area increases, enrollment in the district’s schools decrease.

Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08Total Nonfarm 75,100 74,800 75,000 76,000 78,500 79,100 -4,000 -5.06%Total Private 47,300 46,900 47,000 47,800 49,400 50,400 -3,100 -6.15%Goods Producing 8,900 8,800 8,700 8,500 9,600 10,000 -1,100 -11.00%Service-Providing 66,200 66,000 66,300 67,500 68,900 69,100 -2,900 -4.20%Private Service Providing 38,400 38,100 38,300 39,300 39,800 40,400 -2,000 -4.95%

Trade 13,500 13,200 13,400 13,100 13,300 13,800 -300 -2.17%Retail Trade 8,400 8,100 8,500 8,200 8,100 8,900 -500 -5.62%Government 27,800 27,900 28,000 28,200 29,100 28,700 -900 -3.14%

Federal Government 900 800 900 900 900 800 100 12.50%State Government 21,000 21,300 21,300 21,400 22,400 22,300 -1,300 -5.83%Local Government 5,900 5,800 5,800 5,900 5,800 5,600 300 5.36%

IndustryChange 2013 < 2008

Percentage Change 2013

< 2008

Change in the Number of Jobs in the Jefferson City Metro Area

Number of Jobs

Findings

8,768

8,8868,971

9,0579,143

9,2289,314

9,4009,485

9,5719,657

8,7688,825

8,8838,941

9,0009,059

9,1189,178

9,2389,299

9,360

8,768 8,802 8,836 8,870 8,904 8,938 8,973 9,007 9,042 9,077 9,111

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

9,200

9,400

9,600

9,800

Proj

ecte

d EN

rollm

ent

District Enrollment to 2024

High

Medium

Low

Solid and steady enrollment growth projected

Findings

43.80%

72.00%

41.20%

83.50%

53.30% 53.50%

43.00%

80.50%

50.30%

77.70%

59.00%

49.60% 48.90% 49.00%

40.50%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

Belair CallawayHills

Cedar Hill East Lawson MoreauHeights

North South PioneerTrail

ThorpeGordon

West Lewis &Clark

Middle

ThomasJeffersonMiddle

SimonsenNinthGradeCenter

JeffersonCity High

School

Perc

enta

ge

School

Free and Reduced Lunch Percentage by School (2012-2013)

District Average -

51.4%

There is a wide range in F/R enrollment at the

schools.

FindingsThe high school is overcrowded and four elementaries are nearly overcrowded

Outlook/ChangesThere is a core area where there is large numbers of students migrating into and out of.

Outlook/ChangesGood enrollment growth is possible in the western and northern areas, with the district’s core in the city.

Thank you

Questions&

Answers

SMALL GROUPDiscussions

What are the obvious implications this data has on our

work (preK – 12)?

What additional data/information might we need to consider to

support our work?

• Group Reports

MOVING FORWARD

Planning Committee Logistics

Facilities Assessment

Town Hall Meeting- November 17 th

Future Meeting Dates

CLOSINGREMARKS

Adjourn

THANK YOU