October 16 – October 31

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CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations) ………………………………………......3

Americas…………………………………………………………………….…5

Arms Control and Disarmament…………………………………………......8

China and East Asia………………………………………………………….12

Europe…………………………………………………………………….......14

Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………….17

South Asia……………………………………………………………………..27

United Nations………………………………………………………………...33

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Area Briefs: 16-31October

General Observations

Pakistan

The Indian aggression along the LoC and the Working Boundary not only continued

unabated but increased in intensity with escalating civilian casualties on the Pakistani

side. The UN officials visited the injured on the Pakistani side but not much else has been

done so far by the UN or the major powers. The situation in IOK also remained tense

with Indian forces continuing to attack unarmed protesting Kashmiris with weapons

including pellet guns. The silence of the international community is disturbing.

This silence has emboldened Indian belligerency and has led to an escalation of

diplomatic tensions also between Pakistan and India with each side accusing the other’s

diplomatic staff of espionage. Unless tensions are defused we may see diplomatic ties

suffer.

The US issued a new threat to Pakistan, on 20 October, when its Under Secretary on Countering

the financing of Terrorism, Adam Szubin, declared that the US would act alone where it thought

necessary to destroy militant networks while alleging that the ISI was selective in acting against

terrorist groups.

Two major issues dominated the domestic political scene over this fortnight. One was the

call for a lockdown of the capital by the PTI to pressure the PM into either resigning or

presenting himself for accountability. The government responded by preemptively

locking down all roads leading to the capital before the protest had begun. A major

confrontation resulted along the Khyber Pukhtunkhwa border with Punjab where a PTI

cavalcade led by the Chief Minister of the province was not only stopped from entering

Punjab but also fired upon with tear gas and rubber bullets.

The second issue that continued to haunt the government was the civil-military

disconnect over the planted story in an English paper that was labeled a breach of

national security by the Corps Commanders meeting. The government eventually

compelled its Information Minister to resign but continued to pussyfoot around setting up

an inquiry.

Another major terrorist attack took place in Quetta, Balochistan, on 24 October, when three

suicide bombers attacked a police training academy. At least 60 people lost their lives in the

attack. The attack reflected a major intelligence failure. According to intelligence sources the

terrorists were in touch with someone on the Afghan side, lending further credence to the use by

India of Afghan soil to target Pakistan. Daesh also claimed responsibility for the attack.

Indian PM Modi sought to use the BRICS Summit in Goa as another platform on which to target

Pakistan. During his Summit address he referred to Pakistan as the “mothership of terrorism”.

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Pakistan, through its Foreign Affairs Adviser, Sartaj Aziz, responded by referring to Modi’s

speech as an attempt to divert attention from the Indian atrocities in IOK.

The Chinese government also responded to Modi’s speech by issuing a statement from

Beijing through its Foreign Ministry spokesperson that it opposed linking terrorism with

any country. The statement also asserted that Pakistan had made great sacrifices in its

fight against terrorism and called upon the international community to recognize this

effort.

International

The human tragedy continues to become more acute in the Syrian war with multiple

groups each fighting their own war and civilians getting caught in the crossfire –

especially in the wake of bombing campaigns by the Syrian government, Russia and the

US.

As happens every year, the UN GA, on 26 Oct, passed a resolution calling for an end to the

economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed on Cuba. Traditionally the US opposes it

along with the Marshall Islands an Israel. However, this time, the US abstained, as did Israel.

The refugee crisis persists in Europe with the French dismantling the “Jungle” refugee

camp in Calais. Most of the camp’s inhabitants have been seeking to get to the UK and a

large number of children with no parents or guardians were also living there seeking

entry into the UK. The French government has been pressuring the UK government to

take in these children quickly but the UK government says it has to process the papers

very carefully. Meanwhile, the refugee children remain in a state of limbo.

--- Dr Shireen M Mazari

Director General

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AMERICAS

Domestic

According to USA Today on October 30, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump among

Millennials, while still substantial, had narrowed ahead of the final stretch of the

presidential election.

According to a USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Millennial Poll, Clinton’s support among likely voters

18 to 34 years old dropped six percentage points, to 62% from 68%, between early and late

October 2016. Meanwhile Donald Trump’s support increased one point in the survey, taken before

the FBI announcement of new emails found in the investigation into Clinton’s use of a private

email server while Secretary of State.

On October 30, Harry Reid, the Democratic leader in the US Senate said the head of the

FBI may have broken the law by revealing the Bureau was investigating emails possibly

linked to Hillary Clinton.

Reid accused FBI director James Comey of violating an official act, which prevents officials from

influencing an election. The Bureau has meanwhile obtained a warrant to search a cache of emails

belonging to a top Clinton aide. Emails from Huma Abedin were purportedly found on her

estranged husband’s laptop. According to reports there are at least 650,000 emails to search

through, making it difficult for investigators to give a verdict on them before election day.

Earlier, on October 30, the US Justice Department advised the FBI not to inform Congress

of a new inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s email use.

The Justice Department said the move would be inconsistent with rules designed to avoid the

appearance of interference in an election. FBI Director James Comey had briefed lawmakers in a

letter on October 28, 2016, a move Clinton said was “unprecedented” and “deeply troubling.”

Leading Democratic senators urged both Comey and Attorney General Loretta Lynch to provide

more details about the investigation by October 31, 2016. They argue that Comey’s decision to

reveal the re-opening of the case, less than two weeks before the November 8, 2016 election, is

being used for political purposes.

On October 29, Hillary Clinton said she is “confident” that the latest FBI probe linked to

her emails would not change its original finding that she should not be prosecuted.

Clinton called on the FBI director to explain the new inquiry to the American people. The latest

emails came to light during a separate inquiry into top Clinton aide Huma Abedin’s estranged

husband, former Congressman Anthony Weiner. Clinton emphasized that FBI director James

Comey had said he did not know the significance of the new emails. She also said, “I'm confident

(that) whatever they are will not change the conclusion reached in July.” Donald Trump, however,

described the FBI investigation as “the biggest political scandal since Watergate.”

On October 28, Vice-President Joe Biden said he is not interested in becoming Secretary

of State if Hillary Clinton is elected president.

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In an interview to a Minnesota TV station Biden said, “I’ll do anything I can if Hillary’s elected

to help her, but I don’t want to remain in the Administration.” According to reports, Biden was

“at the top of the internal short list” should the Clinton team win the White House. Biden said

Clinton had not approached him about a potential role in any Administration she may lead. Biden

was a senator for 36 years and chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

On October 26 Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Hillary Clinton’s

foreign policy plan in Syria would trigger World War Three.

Trump said the US should focus on defeating Islamic State (IS) rather than removing Syria’s

president. Clinton has proposed a no-fly zone over Syria. The top US military chief has said that

could spell conflict with Russian jets in the region. The Clinton campaign accused Trump of

“playing to Americans’ fears.” Trump also attacked Republicans for not uniting behind his

candidacy.

On October 19, Republican Donald Trump refused to commit to accepting the election

result if he loses, in the final TV debate against Hillary Clinton.

The Las Vegas debate continued the campaign’s bitter tone, with Trump calling Clinton a “nasty

woman.” According to polls Trump is losing in key battleground states after facing several sexual

assault allegations. The candidates declined to shake hands before and after the debate. Trump

appealed to the Republican establishment by vowing to appoint Supreme Court justices with a

“conservative bent” who would overturn a key ruling that made abortion legal in the US and

protect gun rights. He also reiterated his pledge to deport undocumented immigrants and secure

US borders. Hillary Clinton declared her support for the LGBT community, defend abortion rights,

focus on restoring the middle class and equal pay for women. Many observers agreed that the

most significant part of the debate was when Donald Trump said he would not commit to accepting

the result of the election.

International

On October 26, the US abstained for the first time in a UN vote denouncing the continuing

embargo on Cuba.

The Obama Administration has relaxed some sanctions on Cuba over the last two years. President

Obama’s consequent visit to Cuba in March 2016 led to a resumption of commercial flights to

Havana. However the Republican-dominated Congress has refused to lift the bulk of the trade

restrictions, saying the communist government has not done enough to improve human rights. At

a session of the UN General Assembly to debate an annual resolution calling for the lifting of the

embargo, US ambassador, Samantha Power, took to the lectern to make the same argument the

Administration has been making in Congress that the embargo has been backfiring for years. “For

more than 50 years, the United States had a policy aimed at isolating the government of Cuba.

For roughly half of those years, UN member states have voted overwhelmingly for a General

Assembly resolution that condemns the US embargo and calls for it to be ended.” The resolution

was passed by 191 votes, with no votes against and only the US and Israel abstaining, emphasizing

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Congressional isolation on the issue. However, the vote is not legally binding on member states.

On October 24, Daniel Russel, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific

affairs, sought an explanation for comments made by the President of the Philippines, about

his country separating from the US.

Russel expressed concern over Duterte’s war against drugs and his anti US rhetoric, during a

meeting with the Philippine foreign secretary, Perfecto Yasay. “I’ve pointed out to secretary Yasay

that the succession of controversial statements, comments and a real climate of uncertainty about

the Philippines’ intentions has created consternation in a number of countries, not only in mine,”

Russel said. “This is not a positive trend.”

Several websites including Twitter, Spotify, Reddit, SoundCloud and PayPal were affected

by three web attacks on October 21.

All the firms are customers of a company called Dyn, which they use to help users find their sites

online. Dyn was swamped by two attacks that made the sites of its customers hard to reach. It is

not clear who is behind the attack or why Dyn has been hit. Access to sites such as the New York

Times, Paypal, Pinterest and Tumblr, as well as some cable firms, was also affected.

According to a report published by the NY Times on October 16, the Obama Administration

has intensified a clandestine war in Somalia.

During the past year the US has used Special Operations troops, airstrikes, private contractors

and African allies in an escalating campaign against militants in the Horn of Africa nation.

Hundreds of American troops are based in Somalia, the largest military presence since the United

States pulled out of the country after the Black Hawk Down battle in 1993. According to American

and Somali officials and international monitors observing the conflict, the Somali campaign, is

partly designed to avoid repeating that debacle, which led to the deaths of 18 American soldiers.

They have warned however that the latest campaign carries enormous risks including more

American casualties, failed airstrikes that kill civilians and the potential for the United States to

be drawn even more deeply into the conflict.

Latin America

According to the BBC on October 31, the Venezuelan government and opposition parties

have met for the first time in 2016 to try and resolve the country’s deep political crisis.

President Nicolas Maduro attended the first of several rounds, supervised by a Vatican envoy and

other mediators. The opposition wants a referendum on whether Maduro should step down. For

its part, the left-wing government accuses the opposition of fomenting street violence and wants it

to drop “neo-liberal” economic policies.

--- Amina Afzal

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ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

On October 28, Pakistan raised concerns over the rapid build-up of unprotected weapons

grade fissile material in India.

Earlier, on October 24, the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) published a

report indicating that India has sufficient material and technical capability to produce

between 356 to 492 nuclear weapons.

Co-authored by four nuclear scholars, the study titled “Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear

Programme,” provided a comprehensive assessment of Indian’s nuclear weapon capacity. The

study also gives an understanding of the history, size, extent and capabilities of the different

aspects of the complex Indian nuclear programme that the country has kept outside of the

International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. According to its authors, the study contains

evidence that India has the largest and the oldest unsafeguarded nuclear programme in the

developing world. The authors cautioned members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to

consider the expanding unsafeguarded Indian nuclear programme before dealing with the issue

of India’s NSG membership. While commenting on the study, Pakistan’s Foreign Office

spokesman, Nafees Zakaria, stated on October 28, 2016, that India’s fissile material build-up

had been facilitated by the 2008 NSG waiver granted to India, which had not only hampered the

credibility of the non-proliferation regime but had also negatively affected strategic stability in

South Asia. He warned that another country-specific exemption by the NSG would create further

instability in the South Asian region.

On October 27, the United Nations adopted a resolution calling for negotiations on a new

treaty aimed at outlawing nuclear weapons, despite opposition from nuclear-armed states.

The non-binding Resolution, known as L. 41, was approved by a vote of 123 to 38, with 16

abstentions. The vote was held during a meeting of the First Committee of the UN General

Assembly, which deals with disarmament and international security matters. The US, Israel,

Russia, France and Britain voted against the resolution while China, India and Pakistan

abstained. The resolution aims at holding a conference in March, 2017, to negotiate a legally

binding instrument to ban nuclear weapons, leading to total disarmament. Beatriz Fihn,

executive director of the Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, stated that a new treaty would

not eliminate nuclear weapons overnight. It would, however, establish new international legal

standards stigmatising nuclear weapons and compelling nations to take urgent action on

disarmament.

According to CNN on October 27 a Russian missile company unveiled the first image of

a new weapon, Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, nicknamed Satan 2.

The image was published by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau on its website. Russian

Deputy Defence Minister, Yuri Borsiov said the Sarmat warhead was capable of destroying

targets flying across both North and South Poles, and of wiping out parts of the earth the size

of Texas or France. According to Russian state news agency TASS, the missile will have a

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range exceeding 11,000 kilometres. The Sarmat is designed to provide strategic Russian

forces with a guaranteed and effective fulfilment of nuclear deterrence tasks.

According to Tasnim news agency on October 26, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards

stated that Iran has developed a “suicide drone” capable of delivering explosives to blow

up targets at sea and on land.

The drone is primarily for maritime surveillance and has not been designed for arming with

missiles. However, it can carry heavy payloads of explosives for combat missions to launch

suicide attacks. The drone has the capability to fly near the surface of water, flying as low as

half a metre above the water at a speed of around 250 kilometres per hour and also reach an

altitude of 900 metres. The drone has an advanced military camera with the capability of

being used at night and during the day, as well as the possibility of being used in damp sea

conditions.

On October 21, the United Nations and officials from the Organisation for the Prohibition

of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) blamed the Syrian government for a third chemical

weapons attack that affected a vast area.

The report, prepared by a joint committee set up by the UN and the OPCW, was presented to the

Security Council on October 21, 2016. This is the group’s fourth report during a 13-month

investigation. According to the report, Syrian forces were responsible for a toxic gas attack in

the village of Qmenas in Idlib province on March 16, 2015. However, the investigating team was

unable to determine who was behind the two other gas attacks in Binnish (Idlib province) and

Kafr Zita (Hama province) in March, 2015, and April, 2014, respectively. The UN-led joint

investigative mechanism (JIM) had reported in August, 2016, that Syrian government forces had

carried out the attacks of 2014 and 2015. Of the nine total alleged chemical attacks it was

considering in its probe, the JIM has attributed three to the Syrian government and one to

Daesh.

On October 20, the Indian Defence Ministry stated that Russia has agreed to help India in

developing a new generation of Brahmos missiles with a 600 kilometre-plus striking

range.

During his recent visit to India in October 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that

Russia has made a final decision regarding the joint development of a new generation of

Brahmos missiles after India joined the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in June

2016. Under the Indo-Russian agreement, signed during the bilateral summit at Goa in October

2016, Russia agreed to improve the Brahmos missile, which will be land, air and sea launched,

and would also work to increase its range. MTCR guidelines prohibit its members from the

transfer, sale or joint production of missiles beyond a range of 300 kilometres with countries

outside the club. As a result, India failed to extend Brahmos’ striking range beyond 300

kilometres in the past. After becoming a member of the MTCR, it is now easier for India to

produce long-range ballistic missiles. Experts believe that the new generation Brahmos will be a

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game changer in any conflict with enemies because of the missile’s ability to take down specific

targets, even well protected ones.

The Wall Street Journal reported on October 19 that the US has summoned Russia to a

mandatory meeting before a special treaty commission to answer accusations that

Moscow has violated a Cold War-era pact banning the production, maintenance, and

testing of intermediate-range missiles.

US officials and lawmakers stated that Russia appears to be moving ahead with a programme to

produce a ground-launched cruise missile despite the Obama Administration’s protests that the

weapon violates the 1987 treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF). The US for years

has alleged that Russia is breaching the Treaty. Russia has also accused the US of violating the

Treaty. Officials from the US are expressing concern that Russia is producing more missiles than

are needed to sustain a flight-test programme. Two US lawmakers Mac Thornberry, chairman of

the House Committee on Armed Services, and Devin Nunes, chairman of the House Permanent

Select Committee on Intelligence stated that, “It has become apparent to us that the situation

regarding Russia’s violation has worsened and Russia is now in material breach of the Treaty.”

However, the US State Department declined to discuss the issue in detail. In order to focus on

the issue, the US has called for a rare meeting of the Special Verification Commission, a body

that was established by the INF Treaty to deal with compliance. According to the US and

Western officials the Special Verification Commission’s meeting will be held in coming weeks.

The INF Treaty, which was signed by US President Ronald Reagan and his Soviet counterpart,

Mikhail S. Gorbachev, bans the two nations from testing, producing and possessing ground-

launched ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges from 500 to 5,500 kilometres.

According to The Hindu on October 18, the Indian Navy is reported to have secretly

commissioned indigenously developed nuclear submarine INS Arihant into service.

INS Arihant was formally commissioned by Navy Chief Admiral Sunil Lanba in August 2016.

However, the defence ministry and the navy did not confirm or deny reports about the induction

of the submarine. Former Indian navy chief admiral Arun Prakash (R) said that the secrecy

around the induction of the vessel was “customary” for a nuclear submarine. INS Arihant

weighs 6000 tonnes and is capable of carrying nuclear tipped ballistic missiles, the class

referred to as Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN). The induction of INS Arihant provides

India an assured second-strike capability. The vessel is powered by an 83 MW pressurised light

water nuclear reactor. It will be armed with K-4 and K-15 ballistic missiles with ranges of 750

kilometres and 3500 kilometres respectively. The development of the nuclear submarine began

as the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) project in the 1980s and the vessel was launched in

2009 by the former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

On October 16, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) stated that the country’s

fourth nuclear power plant at Chashma Unit 3 (C-3), with 340 Megawatt (MW) power

generation capacity, has been successfully connected to the national grid.

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The supply of electricity by this unit would be on trial basis. The plant will attain full power by

December 2016, after various safety and functional tests. A formal inauguration ceremony of the

full power grid connection would be held in December 2016. Talking on the occasion, PAEC

Chairman Muhammad Naeem reaffirmed the commitment of PAEC engineers, technicians and

scientists to achieve the targets set to ensure energy security for the country. Pakistan’s first

nuclear power plant KANUPP at Karachi is in operation for the last four decades. The other two

nuclear power plants C-1 and C-2 at Chashma are generating electricity with more than 90%

capacity. Two larger nuclear power plants K-2 and K-3, are under construction at Karachi, and

will be completed by 2020 and 2021 respectively.

According to The Nation on October 16, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has

officially confirmed that it would be providing 8 attack submarines to Pakistan.

Details of the procurement were discussed during a conference held by the Corporation. The

Corporation’s Chairman, Hu Wenming, stated that the conference was aimed at continuing the

spirit generated by Chinese President Xi Jingping’s speech at the Belt and Road Construction

Work Symposium. The deal would cost approximately $4 billion to $5 billion. Four of the eight

submarines will be built at Karachi Shipyard Engineering Works (KSEW) while the remaining

four would be built in China.

--- Abdul Moiz Khan

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CHINA & EAST ASIA

China

On October 28, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lu Kang warned India that

bilateral ties may suffer “damage” and peace and stability of the border areas could be

affected if it allows Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, to visit the disputed

Arunachal Pradesh state on the India-China border.

Kang said China is “firmly opposed” to the Dalai Lama’s visit to the China-India border adding

that it expects India to respect a bilateral consensus on the region. China considers the Dalai

Lama as a separatist and also claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of South Tibet. However,

External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson, Vikas Swarup, said the Dalai Lama is a “guest of

India” and is “free to travel across the country.” His comments were in response to Dalai

Lama’s scheduled visit to Arunachal Pradesh in 2017 at the invitation of the state’s Chief

Minister, Pema Khandu.

On October 28, the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) declared President Xi

Jinping as the “core” of its leadership

The announcement was made at the sixth plenary session of the 376-member Central Committee.

It is the first time the title “core leader” has been used for Chinese President, Xi Jinping.

Analysts say that as “core” leader, Xi will have a stronger position in pushing reforms,

especially in areas such as military restructuring.

The Philippines

During his visit to Japan on October 26, the Philippine’s President, Rodrigo Duterte, said

he wants US troops out of his country in the next two years.

The Philippines hosts US troops under a security deal signed by Duterte’s predecessor for

countering China’s growing clout in the region. During Duterte’s visit, Japan and the

Philippines also agreed to enhance cooperation between the two sides while Duterte pledged a

peaceful resolution to the South China Sea issue. The two sides also signed a series of

cooperation documents, including Japan offering yen loans to improve the country’s maritime

safety capabilities.

During his visit to China on October 19, the Philippine’s President, Rodrigo Duterte, said

it is ‘time to say goodbye’ to the US.

During his four-day visit to China, Duterte stressed that the Philippines only gained little from

its long alliance with the US adding that there would be “no more American interference” or

“American exercises.” Meanwhile, China has announced a resumption of bilateral talks with the

Philippines on disputed territory in the South China Sea, an issue that had previously pushed the

Philippines closer to the US.

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North Korea

According to Japan Times on October 24, a group of former US diplomats held closed

door talks with senior Pyongyang officials.

Media reports claimed that North Korean vice Foreign Minister, Han Song-ryol and Deputy

Ambassador to the UN, Jang Il-hun met former US nuclear envoys, Joseph DeTrani and Robert

Gallucci, and expert Leon Sigal. In July 2016, North Korea completely suspended official

channels of diplomatic communication with the US in response to US sanctions against its

leader, Kim Jong Un. Under President Barack Obama, the US has avoided dialogue with North

Korea. The country continues to face international sanctions over its recent nuclear and missile

tests.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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EUROPE

On October 30, thousands of people in central Italy spent the night in cars, tents and

temporary shelters following the fourth earthquake to hit the area in three months.

The 6.6-magnitude quake was Italy’s strongest in decades. It struck close to the region where

nearly 300 people were killed by a quake in August 2016. No deaths were reported this time but

20 people were injured. More than 100 aftershocks were registered overnight into October 31,

2016.

On October 30, the EU and Canada signed a long-delayed landmark trade deal, following

weeks of uncertainty due to opposition in Belgium.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and top EU officials signed the deal in Brussels. The

original signing ceremony on October 27, 2016 was cancelled after Belgium’s Wallonia region

vetoed the agreement. All 28 EU states approved the deal on October 28 after consensus was

reached. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, (CETA) required all EU member

states to endorse it. It removes 99% of tariffs and officials hope it will generate an increase in

trade worth $12bn annually.

On October 29, the Spanish parliament voted to allow conservative leader Mariano Rajoy

to lead a minority government.

The vote occurred after a 10-month political deadlock after inconclusive parliamentary elections.

The endorsement came after Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP) gained the backing of the Ciudadanos

(Citizens) party and tacit support from the Socialists. Socialist lawmakers are said to have been

among the 68 abstentions. The country had faced the prospect of a third general election within a

year. Socialist leader, Pedro Sanchez, was thrown out earlier this month after he rejected

abstention. Rajoy has led a caretaker administration since losing his overall majority in a

December 2015 election. A repeat election in June 2016 failed to end the impasse but strengthened

his hand. The Socialists (PSOE) came second on both occasions, their support eroded by radical

leftist newcomers Podemos.

In an interview to BBC on October 28 NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the

organisation is not seeking confrontation with Russia and does not want another Cold War.

Stoltenberg asserted that the planned deployment of 4,000 extra troops to Eastern Europe would

prevent conflict not provoke it. He also said that despite current tensions, NATO does not consider

Russia a threat. Relations between the west and Russia are at their lowest point since the Cold

War. Both the EU and US imposed sanctions on Russia following its annexation of Ukraine’s

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Crimean peninsula in 2014. The war in Syria has become another flashpoint for tensions, with key

Western powers accusing Russia of war crimes in its bombardment of opposition-held areas in

support of the Syrian government.

According to Reuters on October 26, Britain has announced its decision to send fighter jets

to Romania in 2017 while the United States promised troops, tanks and artillery to Poland.

The announcement is being described as NATO’s biggest military build-up on Russia’s borders

since the Cold War. Germany, Canada and other NATO allies also pledged forces at a defence

ministers’ meeting in Brussels. The move came after Russia announced its decision to station

nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad. Later, two Russian warships armed with cruise missiles

slipped into the Baltic Sea. Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is on its way to Syria. Spain

said Moscow had removed a request to refuel on Spain’s North African coast, amid suspicions the

fleet would be used to target civilians in Aleppo.

On October 29, French President Francois Hollande urged Britain to take its share of

responsibility for migrant children who remain in Calais after the “Jungle” camp was

cleared.

Hollande said 1,500 unaccompanied minors who were still in the port city would be taken to

accommodation centres across the country. The UK has so far agreed to take in about 250 of the

children from there. A government spokesperson said the UK remained “firmly committed to

working with the French to safeguard and protect children who remain in Calais - and that

includes transferring eligible children to the UK safely and as soon as possible.” The Jungle has

become a key symbol of Europe’s failure to deal with its worst migrant crisis since World War

Two.

On October 27, numerous unaccompanied minors were left in the “Jungle” camp in Calais

overnight, despite French officials declaring the camp now empty.

According to aid workers some 100 children slept in horrible conditions. Fabienne Buccio, the

head of the regional government said the number was 68. Buccio also claimed some of those who

remained overnight were not originally from the camp. Nearly 5,600 people have been moved to

reception centres since October 24, when French Police started an operation to clear the migrant

camp. The camp was housing 7,000 people living in “squalid conditions.” People queued

peacefully to be processed and board buses to refugee centres across France. According to an

October 26 report, fires raged across parts of the “Jungle” following a French operation to

demolish it. It was unclear who set the dozens of fires overnight and in the morning.

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On October 19, Russia started its biggest surface deployment since the end of the Cold

War.

According to NATO officials, Russia aims to effectively end the war in Syria ahead of the US

presidential election. Western Intelligence agencies have asserted that the Kremlin is sending its

Northern Fleet and part of the Baltic Fleet to reinforce a final assault on the city of Aleppo. The

final bombardment would be designed to strengthen the Assad regime by wiping out rebels and

paving the way for a Russian exit from the civil war.

On October 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed new US threats to retaliate

against alleged Russian hackers, saying such statements only confirmed that Washington

used cyber attacks for political ends.

Speaking after the BRICS summit of developing economies in India, the Russian president also

said he believed that the hacking allegations were mainly election campaign rhetoric by the White

House, and that he hoped bilateral ties could improve after the US elections.

--- Amina Afzal

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MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Egypt

On October 22, an Egyptian appeals court upheld a 20-year sentence against former

president Mohamed Morsi.

The ruling is the first final verdict against Morsi on charges of killing protesters during the anti-

government demonstrations of 2012. Amnesty International had denounced the initial trial as a

“travesty of justice”. According to officials, the court also upheld sentences against eight of

Morsi’s co-defendants, including seven who received the same prison term, and one sentenced to

10 years in prison. Morsi was convicted in April 2015 of involvement in deadly clashes outside

the presidential palace during his one year in power. Morsi has been charged in other cases

also, including leaking secrets to Qatar, conspiring with Hamas to destabilise Egypt, and

organising a jailbreak during the 2011 uprising against Hosni Mubarak.

Iran

On October 30, Iran dismissed claims by a senior US naval official that the country has

been sending arms and missiles to Yemen’s Ansarullah Movement.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Bahram Qassemi, rejected the allegations made by the head

of US Naval Forces Central Command Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, who recently claimed that

the US had intercepted five shipments of weapons heading from Iran towards Yemen. Qassemi

stressed that these false claims are being made even as the West continues to sell deadly arms to

Saudi Arabia. Qassemi also criticised Saudi Arabia’s re-election as a member of the UN Human

Rights Council, describing it as a “catastrophe” and a “bitter tragedy”.

Iraq

On October 24, Human Rights Watch (HRW) called on Baghdad for an investigation into

an attack on a mosque in Daquq on October 21. At least 13 women and children were

killed in the attack.

According to local residents, the scale of destruction pointed towards the attack being an air

strike. Iraqi Brigadier General Yahya Rasool, a spokesman for the Joint Military Command, said

the Iraqi government was investigating the incident, but declined to say whether Iraqi or

coalition planes had been flying in the area at the time of the explosion. Russia’s Ministry of

Defence said however that the US-led coalition was responsible for striking the mourners

attending a funeral in Daquq. The US-led coalition denied responsibility for the attack.

On October 21, Daesh launched a major attack on the city of Kirkuk killing at least 80

people.

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The attack came as Iraqi and Kurdish forces pursued operations to capture territory around

Mosul. Daesh attacked several police buildings and a power station in Kirkuk. The attack killed

18 members of the security forces and workers at a power station outside the city, including two

Iranians. After almost 24 hours of heavy fighting, the Iraqi army claimed it had managed to push

back the militants. Kirkuk lies in an oil-producing region and is located east of Hawija, an area

still under Daesh control and lies between Baghdad and Mosul.

On October 20, Iraq’s Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, said that the offensive to

recapture Mosul from Daesh is going faster than planned.

On October 18, Turkish air force jets joined in the air operation supporting Iraqi forces

and Kurdish Peshmerga to retake Iraq’s second city of Mosul from Daesh.

Speaking to his ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) parliamentary group in Ankara,

Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said, “Our air forces took part in the coalition forces' air

operations in Mosul.” While insisting that it cannot be left out of the operation, Turkey has often

spoken of its fears over the potential involvement of Shiite militias and anti-Ankara Kurdish

militia. Yildirim told his MPs that Turkey continuously cautioned the US and the EU about the

region’s sensitivities. The US-led coalition that includes France, Italy, Britain, Canada and

other Western nations is providing air and ground support to the forces that are closing in on the

city. Earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-

Abadi exchanged harsh statements over Turkey’s presence in Bashiqa in northern Iraq, where

700 Turkish soldiers are based. Turkey denies Baghdad’s claims that it is an “occupying force”,

insisting that it is providing training to fighters to help Peshmerga forces retake Mosul.

On October 17, Iraqi and international forces launched an offensive called Combined

Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) to liberate Mosul from Daesh.

US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter said the US and the rest of the international coalition stood

ready to support Iraqi Security Forces, Peshmerga fighters and the people of Iraq in the difficult

fight ahead. OIR commander, Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, said the operation to regain control of

Mosul would likely continue for weeks. He further reiterated that the OIR coalition would

provide air support, artillery, intelligence, advisors and forward air controllers, and hoped that

the supporting forces will continue to use precision to accurately attack the enemy and to

minimise any impact on innocent civilians. A diverse coalition of as many as 100,000 troops will

play a role in the operation, although not all will be directly involved in the assault on the city.

The force includes 54,000 members of the Iraqi Security Forces and 40,000 Kurdish Peshmerga

fighters. It also involves 14,000 members of paramilitary units including 9,000 Sunni fighters,

and 5,000 from other minorities including Christians, Turkmen and Yazidis. According to Iraqi

Prime Minister, Haider al Abadi, only Iraqi army troops and members of the national police

force will enter the city of Mosul, amid fears of sectarian retribution during the operation.

According to estimates, there are roughly up to 5,000 Daesh fighters in Mosul. The militant

group’s supporters however say there are 7,000.

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Israel

On October 18, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO)

adopted an Arab-sponsored resolution condemning Israel’s actions at a flashpoint holy

site in east Jerusalem.

The UNESCO resolution on ‘occupied Palestine’ was endorsed by the agency’s executive board

at its headquarters in Paris. The resolution was earlier approved at the committee stage.

Referring throughout to ‘the occupying power,’ it condemns Israel for restricting Muslims’

access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, and criticises damage by security forces to the site and

nearby excavations. Israel showed anger and criticised the resolution saying it refers to the Old

City site in Jerusalem by its Muslim name, Al-Aqsa or Al-Haram al-Sharif. The site is considered

holy by Muslims, Christians and Jews. Jews refer to it as the Temple Mount and it is considered

the holiest site in Judaism.

Libya

In a setback to Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) on October 16, a political

rival seized key offices in the capital and proclaimed a reinstatement of the former

administration.

The GNA is led by Prime Minister designate Fayez al-Sarraj. It was intended to replace two

rival administrations, one in Tripoli and another in the country’s far east. The West relies on the

GNA to halt an upsurge of extremism in the country and stop human trafficking across the

Mediterranean that has led to thousands of drownings. The head of the former Tripoli-based

Government of National Salvation, Khalifa Ghweil, proclaimed its reinstatement from the offices

of a key consultative body of the GNA. Ghweil has never accepted the legitimacy of the UN-

backed government which took control of the administration in April 2016. His position was

however severely weakened by the loss of support of militias in the capital after the UN deal. The

UN’s Libya envoy condemned the latest challenge to the authority of the unity government,

warning it would create ‘further disorder and insecurity’.

Palestine

On October 24, the UN distributed more than $1.7 million in aid to Palestinian refugee

families, who lost their homes in Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip.

The United Nation Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)

said in a statement that it had allocated 951,000 dollars for reconstruction and another 759,000

dollars for intensive repair work for the 242 refugee families in the impoverished Palestinian

coastal enclave. Israel launched its war on the Gaza Strip in July 2014. The war killed nearly

2,200 Palestinians, including 577 children. Over 11,100 others, including children, women and

elderly people were also wounded in the war. The Gaza Strip has been under an Israeli siege

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since June 2007. The blockade has led to a dramatic decline in the standards of living as well as

high levels of unemployment and poverty. Israel continues to carry out airstrikes against the

Palestinians from time to time. In a related development on October 24, the Israeli minister for

military affairs, Avigdor Lieberman, warned that his regime’s next war on Gaza would be the

“last” one, and that it would “totally destroy” the Hamas movement.

Qatar

On October 27, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas held a meeting with two senior

leaders of the Gaza-based Hamas movement in Doha.

Abbas met Hamas’ political bureau chief, Khaled Meshaal, and the movement’s leader in Gaza,

Ismail Haniyeh. According to reports Qatari Foreign Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman

bin Jassim Al-Thani, Saeb Erekat, the Secretary General of the Palestine Liberation

Organisation (PLO), and Palestinian Ambassador to Qatar Munir Ghanam also attended the

meeting. The two sides discussed how to ease the problems of the Palestinians and how to bridge

the rift between Hamas and President Abbas’ Fatah Party. Hamas leaders stressed the need to

implement the previous reconciliation agreements signed between the two sides over the past few

years. They also called for holding elections and forming a unity government. The leaders also

suggested that a united Palestinian front be formed to confront the Israeli occupation agenda

and its continued aggression. In April 2014, Hamas and Fatah agreed to set aside their

differences and formed a unity government. The joint national consensus government was,

however, dissolved in June 2015 amid persisting differences between the two factions. The two

key rival factions have had tense relations since Hamas scored a major victory in Palestinian

legislative elections in 2006 and emerged as the ruling party in the besieged Gaza Strip.

Saudi Arabia

On October 30, Saudi Arabia said it thwarted two Daesh terrorism plots including a bomb

attack on a football stadium.

The Saudi Interior Ministry announced that four men were arrested over plans to detonate a

bomb at Jeddah’s King Abdullah Sports City Stadium during or after an October 11, 2016 World

Cup qualifier match against UAE. The suspects were arrested one day before the match which

gathered over 60,000 people. According to security officials, a vehicle carrying around 400

kilograms of explosives was found near the stadium. The ministry also announced that a

separate plot had been foiled in the capital Riyadh in which four people with links to Daesh were

detained after evidence surfaced that they had been plotting to attack police officers.

On October 27, Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a ballistic missile towards the holy city of

Makkah in Saudi Arabia, but it was intercepted by ground defences before strike.

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The missile was downed about 40 miles from Makkah. Coalition jet fighters then attacked and

destroyed the rocket launchers responsible for the attack. In a statement to their official news

agency, Houthis confirmed the launch of a Burkan-1 ballistic missile into Saudi Arabia, but said

it had been aimed at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. Houthis also targeted al-

Taif in the southern Makkah region. That missile too was destroyed before impact. Saudi Arabia

has deployed Patriot missiles to intercept the rebel fire. Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed Obeid

bin Daghr blamed Iran for the escalating violence, accusing Tehran of training thousands of

Houthi fighters in Iran and Beirut. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of sending weapons to the

rebels in violation of UN resolutions. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) also condemned the

attack which it described as “clear evidence” that the rebels are not willing to accept a political

solution to Yemen’s conflict.

On October 16, the US urged Saudi Arabia to recommit to an immediate and

unconditional ceasefire in Yemen.

The appeal for ending hostilities in Yemen follows a Saudi admission that misinformation and

abuse of procedure resulted in the October 8, 2016 bombing of a funeral in Sanaa that killed 140

people. US State Department’s deputy spokesman Mark C. Toner said, “We urge all sides to

recommit to an immediate and unconditional cessation of hostilities that can lead to renewed

negotiations and a political settlement that ends the conflict.” He also noted that the war in

Yemen has killed and injured civilians, damaged civilian infrastructure, and inflicted a heavy

humanitarian toll paid by the Yemeni people. So far more than 4,000 non-combatants have been

killed in this war.

Dawn reported on October 16 that according to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, one of

its warplanes had ‘wrongly targeted’ a funeral in Sanaa, killing more than 140 people,

and announced disciplinary proceedings.

The Saudi-led coalition announced initial results of its investigation, reporting that a party

affiliated with the Yemeni general chief of staff headquarters had misinformed coalition

command that armed rebels were gathering at the location in Sanaa and insisted that the target

be hit immediately. The October 8, 2016 strike prompted an international outcry and strong

criticism even from Saudi Arabia’s closest Western allies. The coalition also said that

appropriate action must be taken against those who caused the incident, and compensation be

offered to the families of the victims.

Syria

On October 28, foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Syria held trilateral talks on a

political solution to the Syrian crisis.

Ahead of the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the three nations are acting

as a united front against terrorism, saying their talks are mainly focused on ways of seriously

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tackling terrorism, particularly in Syria. According to him, Russia and Iran welcomed Syria’s

readiness to boost cooperation with the UN.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said the government does not maintain any contacts

with the US-led anti-terrorist coalition and questions its effectiveness. He said Damascus is

certain that Washington is not eager to meet its commitments regarding Syria. Lavrov stressed

the responsibility for the current position of Syrians rests not only on terrorists, but also on the

West and its sanctions. He further reiterated that Moscow, unlike its Western counterparts, is set

to carry the fight against terrorists through to the end. He also said that the Russian-US

agreements on Syria had begun with a statement that the top priority was to separate moderate

opposition and terrorists. According to minister Lavrov, prevention of foreign support for

terrorists is a requirement of the UNSC and Russia will insist on compliance with that demand.

Prior to the three-way discussions, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif held a bilateral

meeting with Lavrov to discuss regional issues and the further enhancement of bilateral Tehran-

Moscow ties.

On October 27, Russia rejected the UN-led investigation accusing the Syrian government

of chemical attacks.

On October 22, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault asked the UN Security

Council to condemn the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and urged that those behind

the attacks be placed under sanctions.

These comments came a day after UN experts said in a report that the Syrian army had attacked

a village with chemical weapons in 2015. Daesh has also been accused of using mustard gas as

a weapon. The White House also condemned the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian

government. The US, Britain and France have repeatedly called for sanctions, particularly

against the Syrian regime, over the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian war. However, Russia

has cast doubt on the UN experts’ findings, claiming that they are not sufficiently conclusive to

warrant sanctions. According to Russian officials, the investigation is “unconvincing” and full of

contradictions.

On October 26, at least 26 people, most of them school children, were killed in air strikes

in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib province.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights either Russian or Syrian warplanes

carried out six strikes on the village of Hass. Russia said neither it nor Syria carried out the

attack. According to the UNICEF, five Syrian schools, including the one in Idlib, have been

targeted since 11 October 2016. Idlib is one of the last strongholds of the Syrian opposition, and

the province has been repeatedly bombed by Syrian and Russian air forces.

On October 23, a three-day unilateral ceasefire ended with the resumption of heavy

fighting in Aleppo.

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The cease fire ended without any evacuations by the UN, which had hoped to bring wounded

civilians out of the rebel-held areas and deliver aid. The army had opened eight evacuation

corridors, but only a handful of civilians were able to cross through the single passage. The UN

blamed all sides in Syria after it failed to evacuate injured and sick Syrians from Aleppo.

Russian officials and Syrian state media accused rebels of preventing people from leaving and

also using civilians as human shields. In a related development, according to US and Russian

officials, US Secretary of State John Kerry voiced concern to his Russian counterpart Sergei

Lavrov about renewed fighting and air strikes in Aleppo. Both Lavrov and Kerry agreed that

experts from several countries meeting in Geneva would continue searching for ways to resolve

the Aleppo crisis. Lavrov told Kerry the US must fulfil its obligation to separate moderate

opposition groups from terrorists in Syria. Nearly 500 people have been killed and more than

2,000 wounded since the Syrian army launched an operation to recapture eastern Aleppo.

On October 21, the Syrian military warned it would intercept and bring down any

Turkish fighter jets entering the country’s airspace.

Earlier, on October 20, the Turkish army said its jets had conducted 26 airstrikes against 18

targets of People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the Maarrat Umm Hawsh region north of Aleppo.

According to Turkey’s Anadolu news agency, roughly 160 to 200 YPG fighters were killed in the

raids. Like in Iraq, where Kurdish fighters are at the forefront of the offensive to retake the city

of Mosul from Daesh, Kurdish forces in Syria have also been battling Daesh and made

significant territorial gains in Aleppo province. That has dismayed Turkey, which is dealing with

a homegrown Kurdish insurgency and is trying to prevent an expansion of Kurdish influence in

Syria.

On October 16, Turkey-backed rebels captured the northern Syrian town of Dabiq from

Daesh.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, opposition forces backed by Turkish

warplanes and artillery had seized control of Dabiq. The capture of Dabiq is a major defeat to

Daesh. The town, in Syria’s northern province of Aleppo, holds ideological importance for

Daesh because of a prophecy that says it will be the site of an apocalyptic battle between

Christian forces and Muslims. Turkey launched an operation inside Syria on August 24, 2016

helping Syrian rebels to rid its frontier of Daesh militants and Syrian Kurdish militia. President

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would push further south to create a 5,000-square kilometre

safe zone in Syria.

Turkey

On October 29, Turkey said it had dismissed a further 10,000 civil servants and closed 15

more media outlets over suspected links with terrorist organisations and US-based cleric

Fethullah Gulen.

24

On October 27, Turkish prosecutors issued arrest warrants for 73 air force pilots as part

of Ankara’s ongoing crackdown on alleged plotters and sympathisers of the July 15, 2016

coup attempt.

The arrest warrants were issued as police forces launched operations across 17 provinces to

detain pilots over their alleged links to US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen. According to

Turkey’s private Dogan news agency, the suspects are accused of “armed rebellion against the

Turkish Republic” and membership in what Ankara calls the Fethullah terror organisation or

FETO. Other media reports suggested that another 200 soldiers and civilians would be arrested

in coup-related operations. The latest detentions will bring to more than 300 the number of pilots

dismissed or arrested as part of the coup investigation. Since the failed coup attempt, Turkey has

arrested 35,000 people and sacked more than 100,000 others in the civil service, judiciary,

police, military and elsewhere. The extent of the crackdown has worried rights groups and many

of Turkey’s Western allies, who fear Erdogan is using the emergency rule to eradicate dissent.

The government says the actions are justified given the threat to the state posed by the coup

attempt, in which more than 240 people died.

On October 24, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkish artillery

fire has already played a role in the effort to liberate Mosul from Daesh and four Turkish

fighter jets are on standby to take part in air operations.

In a related development, on October 21, US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter announced

that Turkey and Iraq have reached an agreement that could allow a Turkish role in the

campaign to retake Mosul from Daesh.

The announcement was made following Secretary Carter’s meeting with Turkish President

Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey and the Shia-dominated central government in Iraq have been at

odds about the presence of Turkish troops at a military camp in northern Iraq, and about

Ankara’s demand to take part in the Mosul operation. Earlier, on October 14, 2016, Erdogan

voiced concern that being a NATO member Turkey has not been adequately involved in the US-

backed assault on the Iraqi city. Erdogan also warned of sectarian bloodshed if the Iraqi army

relies on Shia militia fighters to retake the largely Sunni city of Mosul. Turkey says it has a

responsibility to protect ethnic Turkmens and Sunni Arabs in the area around Mosul. Iraq,

meanwhile, views Turkish military moves on its territory with apprehension. Any agreement on

Mosul would defuse major tension between the two countries.

Yemen

On October 29, Saudi coalition air strikes killed at least 60 people, including inmates of a

prison near the city of Hudaydah.

The air strikes were conducted against a security complex, housing two detention centres, in the

northern district of Zaydiyah. The Saudi-led coalition said it struck a ‘central security building’

25

used as a military command centre by the Houthi rebels. A large number of prisoners and

security guards were also among the victims. One of the strikes directly targeted the adjacent

prisons killing dozens of inmates. According to Hashem al-Azizi, the governor of Hudaydah,

more than 100 inmates were being held in the detention centres when they were struck three

times. Earlier on October 29, Saudi warplanes hit residential buildings in the western city of

Taiz, killing at least 18 civilians, including children. The prison attack was one of the deadliest

among the thousands of bombings. The attacks have largely failed to dislodge the Houthis from

the capital, Sanaa, but have repeatedly hit schools, markets, hospitals and homes, killing many

civilians.

On October 29, Yemen’s President, Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi rejected a UN peace

proposal.

According to President Hadi, the roadmap ‘only opens a door towards more suffering and war

and is not a map for peace’. The new peace plan calls for agreement on naming a new vice

president after the rebels withdraw from Sanaa and other cities and hand over heavy weapons to

a third party. Hadi would then transfer power to the vice president who would appoint a new

prime minister to form a government in which the north and south of Yemen would have equal

representation.

On October 27, the UAE welcomed a new UN peace proposal to end the Yemen conflict.

According to Reuters, the peace proposal by UN envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed to end the

conflict in Yemen is aimed at sidelining exiled President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi and setting

up a government of less divisive figures. A UN Security Council resolution in April 2015

recognised him as the legitimate head of state and called on the Houthis to disarm and quit

Yemen’s main cities. However, the Houthis and their allies said he should never return, accusing

him and his powerful vice president, Ali Mushin al-Ahmar, of corruption. The latest peace plan

suggests Ahmar would step down and Hadi would agree to become little more than a figurehead

after a Houthi withdrawal from the capital Sanaa. The proposal would technically confirm Hadi

in office, as stipulated by the UN resolution, but in reality, would leave him with only a symbolic

role. Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed Obeid bin Daghr said that the government had not yet

received a draft of the peace proposal from the UN.

On October 22, heavy gun fighting erupted overnight between Houthi militants and pro-

government forces along Yemen’s border with Saudi Arabia

Earlier, on October 21, UN special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said that the ceasefire was

‘fragile but largely holding’, urging all parties ‘to show restraint, avoid further escalation, and

strictly adhere to the 72-hour ceasefire’. The Saudi-led coalition also bombed suspected Houthi

rebel missile launchers east of Sanaa. The air raids came after Patriot missiles shot down two

rebel missiles over Marib. In a related development, ballistic missiles launched by Yemeni forces

destroyed Saudi National Guard barracks and severely damaged a military base in the

Kingdom’s Najran region. Nearly 6,900 people have been killed in the conflict, more than half of

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them civilians, while an additional three million have been displaced and millions more need

food aid.

On October 20, Saudi Arabia violated the ceasefire in Yemen, conducting airstrikes

against civilian sites in the northwestern provinces of Amran and Sa’ada.

At least 6 people were killed in the strikes. Earlier, on October 19, the UN announced a 72-hour

ceasefire in Yemen to allow aid to reach families trapped in towns and villages cut off due to

war. Saudi Arabia’s aggression, which has killed more than 10,000 in Yemen, was launched in

an attempt to restore power to Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, an ally of Riyadh who has resigned

from his post as president but seeks to regain power. The campaign also seeks to undermine the

Houthi movement. In another development, UN sanctions’ monitors told the UNSC that the

October 8, 2016 Saudi airstrikes against a funeral ceremony in Sanaa were in breach of

international humanitarian law.

According to Reuters on October 20, US officials said that Iran has stepped up weapons

supply to Houthis in Yemen.

According to officials, the increased transfer of weapons, which include missiles and small arms,

could prolong the war in Yemen and also become a security concern for the US. The officials

reiterated that much of the recent smuggling activity has been conducted through Oman, which

neighbours Yemen. The porous border between the two countries has also enabled smuggling via

overland routes. Oman denies any weapons smuggling across its border. The Houthis gained

access to a large number of weapons when forces loyal to former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah

Saleh sided with them. Both Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s exiled government also say the Houthis

receive weapons and ammunition from Iran. Tehran views the Houthis as the legitimate

authority in Yemen, but denies it supplies them with weapons.

---Muhammad Shoaib

27

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan

External

On October 29, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson, Nafees Zakaria, strongly

condemned the missile launched by Yemen’s Houthi militias to attack the holy city of

Makkah. He said, “It is a matter of deep concern and anguish for the government and

people of Pakistan that such an attempt had been made to target the holiest place”.

The spokesperson added that, “the people of Pakistan stand with the people of Saudi Arabia in

the defence of Harmain-al-Sharifain and the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Saudi

Arabia.” The reaction came after the Saudi-led military coalition claimed on October 27, 2016

that, “Houthi rebels launched a ballistic missile from Saada province towards Mecca saying the

missile was “intercepted and destroyed” about 65km from Makkah.

During a press briefing on October 28, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson, Nafees

Zakaria, said that Pakistan does not distinguish between terrorist groups adding that

Pakistan would not allow its territory to be used against any other country.

Zakaria also said the investigations of Kulbushan Yadav are still underway and Pakistan will

submit the dossier to those concerned, particularly the UN Secretary General. The spokesman

also rejected the assertion by John Nicholson, the top US commander in Afghanistan that the

Haqqani network is operating freely in Pakistan. Zakaria stressed that Pakistan has repeatedly

conveyed in its meetings with the US and the Afghan government that it has taken decisive action

against all militant groups.

On October 27, Pakistan declared Surjeet Singh, an official of the Indian High

Commission in Islamabad, as persona non-grata and directed him to leave the country by

October 29, 2016.

According to a statement issued by Pakistan’s foreign ministry, the Indian official was “involved

in activities that are in violation of the Vienna Convention”. The development comes after

Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary, Aizaz Chaudhry summoned the Indian High Commissioner,

Gautam Bambawale, to convey to him Islamabad’s decision to expel Surjeet Singh. The move

came hours after Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar summoned Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s

High Commissioner in New Delhi, to inform him of the decision to expel Mehmood Akhtar, a

Pakistani official at the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi. India accused Akhter of being

involved in espionage. Pakistan has rejected the allegation.

During his October 25 meeting with Sir Mark Lyall Grant, National Security Adviser to

the British Prime Minister, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif stressed the need for an early

resolution of the Kashmir issue for lasting peace in the region.

Sharif also informed the British security adviser about the worsening situation in Indian

Occupied Kashmir (IOK) and called on the international community to take notice of massive

human rights violations committed by Indian forces in Occupied Kashmir. He emphasised that

the dispute remains the core issue between Pakistan and India and that the issue must be

resolved according to UN resolutions. More than 100 people have been killed and hundreds

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have been blinded after Indian forces resorted to the use of lethal weapons including pellet guns

on demonstrators opposing Indian rule in Kashmir. Earlier on October 24, Pakistan’s Foreign

Secretary, Aizaz Chaudhry, also called on the UN to ensure the implementation of its resolutions

on Kashmir and other disputes terming it as one of the oldest disputes pending in the UN.

During an October 24 meeting with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad,

International Monetary Fund (IMF) head, Christine Lagarde, said that Pakistan is now in

a better financial position and “out of economic crisis.”

Lagarde also called for progress in structural reforms and asked the Pakistani government to

speed up work on energy sector reforms. Lagarde’s visit comes two months after the IMF

cleared payment of a final $102 million to Pakistan. The three-year programme amounted to a

total of $6.4 billion.

On October 22, a three-member delegation from the Taliban’s Qatar office visited

Pakistan and held talks with Pakistani officials in Islamabad.

The meetings are the first of their kind since Taliban chief, Akhundzada assumed power. The

talks follow media reports of secret meetings in Qatar between Taliban negotiators and Afghan

intelligence chief, Muhammad Masoom Stanekzai. The insurgent group denied the reports as

propaganda while Afghan officials have also publicly declined to acknowledge it. However, the

latest meetings in Islamabad have raised speculation of a resumption in peace talks that were

derailed earlier in 2016 following a US drone strike in Pakistan that killed former Taliban

leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour.

On October 20, Adam Szubin, acting US Under Secretary on Countering the Financing of

Terrorism, called on Pakistan to go after all terrorist networks operating on its soil. He

also stressed that the “US will not hesitate to act alone when necessary to destroy and

disrupt” militant networks.

Criticising Pakistan’s top intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Szubin alleged

that it was not acting against all the terrorist groups operating in Pakistan. He however

acknowledged Islamabad’s efforts in countering “terrorist safe havens” in North Waziristan and

termed Pakistan a “critical counter terrorism partner.” The US frequently blames Islamabad for

not taking adequate steps against the Haqqani network. Pakistan has rejected these claims

maintaining that it is targeting all militant infrastructures on its territory. The comments reflect

a deep distrust between the two sides and come at a point when India has already stepped up

efforts to isolate Pakistan in the international community. The Obama Administration is facing

tough challenges with regard to its Afghanistan exit strategy. Obama’s plan for the withdrawal

of international forces was dealt a severe blow after Afghan Taliban stepped up their offensive

against the US and Afghan forces in 2014 when most of the international troops were pulled out

of the country.

On October 19, in response to a petition calling on the UK government to “strongly

condemn Pakistan for providing safe havens to terrorists,” the British government

defended Pakistan’s record in combating terrorism.

A statement on the British government website noted that the UK and Pakistan have a “shared

interest” in combatting terrorism and both sides are working together to “counter both the

29

terrorist threat and the extremism that sustains it.” Around 19,000 UK residents signed the

petition. The British government is required to respond to any petition, which crosses 10,000

signatures. Naman Paropkari, a British national of Indian-origin launched the petition ahead of

UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s India visit. In the wake of increased tensions between

Pakistan and India over the Kashmir issue, the Indian diaspora has launched campaigns to

brand Pakistan a ‘terrorist state’. Earlier on October 5, the White House also shut down a

petition introduced by the Indian-American community that sought to designate Pakistan a state

sponsor of terrorism.

On October 17, Sun Weidong, China’s Ambassador to Pakistan, said that Iran’s inclusion

in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would be beneficial for both Tehran

and Islamabad.

Ambassador Sun Weidong also stated that his country aims to enhance its cooperation with Iran

through CPEC. Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani also expressed his desire to become a part of

the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) during his meeting with Prime Minister Nawaz

Sharif on the sidelines of the 2016 UNGA session. Independent observers have also called for an

increased Iranian role in the multibillion CPEC project saying it would deepen regional

cooperation and connectivity.

Pakistan

Internal

On October 24, at least 60 people were killed and 124 injured after three suicide bombers

attacked a police-training academy in Quetta.

In a related development on October 28, Pakistani authorities claimed that security forces

raided a compound in Quetta, killing four militants linked to an attack on a Quetta police

academy.

According to media reports, the compound had around 700 police cadets at the time of the

militant attack. Militant group Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack. IG Frontier Corps

(FC), Major General Sher Afgan, claimed that the militants were “in communication with

operatives in Afghanistan” and belonged to the Al-Alimi faction of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi

militant group, an affiliate of Tehreek-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP). LeJ has carried out attacks in

the past as well and was outlawed in Pakistan in 2001. Earlier, in January 2014, LeJ attacked a

bus carrying Shiite pilgrims killing more than 20 people. Balochistan continues to be plagued by

violence although attacks in the rest of Pakistan have declined in recent years following a series

of military offensives across the country, particularly in North Waziristan. Earlier in August

2016, the Jamaatul Ahrar faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban carried out a suicide bombing at a

Quetta hospital that killed 73 people, mostly lawyers who had gathered to mourn the shooting of

their colleagues.

According to PM Nawaz Sharif’s office on October 29, Pakistan’s Minister for

Information, Pervaiz Rashid, was “directed to step down from his post to enable holding

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of an independent and detailed inquiry” of a leaked story published in Pakistani

newspaper Dawn on October 6 2016.

The Prime Minister’s office said the evidence suggests a “lapse on part of the information

minister” while the ISPR press statement termed the October 6, 2016 story as being “planted”

and in “breach of national security”. The government also formed a committee comprising

officials from the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Military Intelligence (MI) and Intelligence

Bureau (IB) to investigate the leak. An October 6, 2016 report in Dawn had claimed that the

civilian leadership had told military authorities to act against militants or face international

isolation. Pakistan’s Army termed the report as a ‘false and fabricated news story’.

On October 28, the Supreme Court of Pakistan constituted a larger bench to hear petitions

seeking an investigation into the Panama Leaks on petitions filed before them including

one by PTI Chairman Imran Khan.

Earlier on October 20, the Supreme Court of Pakistan issued a notice to Prime Minister,

Nawaz Sharif and his family members in the ‘Panama Papers’ leak case.

The 5-member bench of Supreme Court, including Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP), Anwar

Zaheer Jamali, will hear petitions on November 1, 2016. Earlier on October 20, 2016 a three-

member bench headed by Chief Justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali heard petitions seeking PM

Sharif’s disqualification over allegations that his children are involved in a financial scam. The

apex court has sought their replies within a fortnight. Since the revelation of Panama papers,

opposition parties in Pakistan, mainly Pakistan’s Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), have ratcheted up

pressure on PM Sharif to resign from his post for an independent probe into the leaks. However,

the government and the opposition parties have been unable to agree on joint Terms of

Reference (ToR).

India

On October 25, John Key, the Prime Minister of New Zealand, visited India and met with

his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi. During his visit, the two leaders agreed to

strengthen their bilateral ties in the fields of trade, defence and security.

According to the joint statement, the two leaders agreed to enhance cooperation to combat the

threat of terrorism. Key also said, “New Zealand would continue to contribute constructively to

the process currently underway in the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) to consider India’s

membership” adding that New Zealand and other “like-minded” countries had said it was

possible for India to join without signing the NPT. However, there was no clear support of New

Zealand on India’s entry into the NSG. New Zealand’s media reported that the main focus of

Key’s visit to India was to push the free trade agreement between the two sides that has faced

challenges since the beginning in 2010. Media reports also noted that the aim of hosting Key in

New Delhi was to gather the country’s support for India’s NSG membership. New Zealand had

opposed India’s NSG bid in the last NSG plenary in South Korea in June 2016 saying no

exception could be made for India, a non-NPT country.

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On October 24, at least 24 Maoist rebels were killed by the Indian police in India’s

eastern state of Odisha.

Police said they ambushed 30 to 40 Maoists including senior rebel leaders near the border of

Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. This is the second major encounter against Maoist rebels in India.

Earlier in September 2013, thirteen Maoists rebels were killed in an encounter with the Indian

police.

On October 20, an Indian court upheld appeals by 14 Hindus convicted over the massacre

of 33 Muslims burnt alive during the religious unrest in the Indian state of Gujarat in

2002.

More than 1,000 people, mostly Muslims were killed in India’s worst communal violence since

1947. The incident was sparked by a fire on a train that killed 60 Hindu pilgrims. Critics of PM

Modi, who was the state chief minister at the time, say he did little to stop the riots. Following

bloody riots, Modi was blacklisted for a decade by the United States and the European Union.

During his address at the summit of BRICS nations held in the Indian city of Goa on

October 16, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a veiled reference, branded Pakistan a

“mothership of terrorism”.

PM Modi also told BRICS leaders to “stand up and act decisively against state sponsors of

terror” in the South Asian region. He stressed that this one country not only “shelters terrorists”

but also “nurtures a mindset”. Responding strongly, Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Sartaj

Aziz termed Modi’s speech as misleading and a desperate attempt to hide “India’s brutalities” in

Kashmir. Aziz said Pakistan joins all the members of BRICS and BIMSTEC in condemning

terrorism and reaffirms its full commitment to fighting terrorism without discrimination.

However, PM Modi’s attempt to use the BRICS meeting for isolating Pakistan failed to secure

any consensus among BRICS leaders. In a joint statement, leaders from the BRICS nations

condemned recent attacks against some of its members “including that in India.” It however,

made no reference to Pakistan. While responding to PM Modi’s remarks over Pakistan, Hua

Chunying, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, said that Beijing opposes linking of any

country to terrorism saying Pakistan had made great sacrifices in fighting terror and the

international community should recognise this effort. Political observers in India also criticised

Modi’s Pakistan centric campaign at the summit and indicated that the leaders were more

focused on the central agenda of economic cooperation among BRICS nations.

On October 18, referring to Indian claims of ‘surgical strikes’ across the Line of Control

(LoC), Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, compared the Indian military to that of

Israel saying, “we used to hear about similar feats of Israeli forces but now everyone

knows that the Indian Army is no less.”

Modi was addressing a gathering in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh. He also said “the

world has noticed Indian military capability after surgical strikes on militant bases across the

LoC.” Pakistan rejected Indian claims of surgical strikes as a “fabrication of truth”. Earlier on

September 29, 2016 the Indian Army killed two Pakistani soldiers in cross border firing but

claimed that its forces carried out a “surgical strike” against “terrorist launch pads” across the

LoC in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

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Afghanistan

On October 26, militants linked to IS abducted and killed around 30 civilians, including

children, in Afghanistan’s Ghor province.

The killings highlight the deteriorating security in Afghanistan as militants continue their attacks

across the country. Daesh has staged a series of attacks across the country, including two

explosions in Kabul in July 2014 that killed at least 85 people and wounded more than 400.

On October 19, Afghan Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, rejected reports of

holding secret meetings with the Afghan government to resume peace negotiations.

In another statement, Mujahid asserted that “the stance of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan with

regard to peace talks is clear” and remains “unchanged”. The Taliban have vowed not to

engage in any peace talks with the Afghan government until the withdrawal of foreign troops

from Afghan territory. Earlier on October 18, the Guardian newspaper, citing Afghan officials,

reported that the Afghan government has carried out “secret talks” with the Afghan Taliban in

Doha. Afghan intelligence chief, Masoom Stanekzai, led the discussions with representatives of

the Afghan Taliban.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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UNITED NATIONS

On October 26, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution underlining

the need to end the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed on Cuba.

For the first time in the 25-year history of the annual vote, the US cast an abstention, along with

Israel, rather than opposing the resolution. During the voting, 191 members of the Assembly out

of 193 voted in favour of the resolution and also welcomed the progress in the relations between

the US and Cuba. The Assembly also urged all UN Member States to refrain from promulgating

and applying laws and measures not conforming to their obligations under the UN Charter and

international law.

On October 21, Islamabad became the 101st capital city in the world to adopt the United

Nations Urban Environment Accords. The Mayor of Islamabad Sheikh Ansar Aziz signed

a Green Charter at a ceremony.

Under the Charter, Islamabad will adopt an action plan based on the UN Urban Environmental

Accords to improve its overall environment and to rectify the damage to its natural environment

because of development. According to the mayor, the objective was to make the federal capital

greener and environmentally sustainable. The signing ceremony of the Islamabad Green Charter

was also attended by the Federal Minister for Climate Change Zahid Hamid.

On October 19, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Maleeha Lodhi, briefed

UN Secretary General-designate Antonio Guterres on the situation in South Asia and

Afghanistan.

In her first meeting with Guterres, Maleeha Lodhi discussed the opportunities and challenges

confronting the world today. Lodhi also congratulated the Secretary General-designate on

behalf of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the adviser to the prime minister on foreign affairs

Sartaj Aziz. While recalling his various visits to Pakistan and the excellent cooperation that he

had received as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Guterres expressed his

deep admiration for Pakistan’s resilience not just in hosting refugees but also in confronting the

challenges it has faced over the years. Guterres has visited Pakistan six times. He will formally

take over as UN Secretary-General on January 1, 2017.

On October 19, the UN’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Tadamichi Yamamoto,

stated that Afghan forces are responsible for a growing number of civilian casualties in

the Afghan conflict.

In a report published on October 19, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan stated that at

least 2,562 civilians died and another 5,835 were wounded in the conflict in Afghanistan during

the first nine months of 2016. A similar number of civilian casualties occurred in the same

period during 2015. According to UN investigators, the ground fighting between pro-government

forces and militants had caused nearly 40% of all the casualties. That includes a spike of 72% in

casualties from air strikes by the Afghan air force and international troops. The report also

condemned anti-government attacks by the militants that have directly targeted civilians.

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On October 19, the UN working group on enforced or involuntary disappearances called

on the Government of India to immediately release Kashmiri human rights defender

Khurram Parvez.

Parvez is the coordinator of the Jammu Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society (JKCSS) and the

chairperson of the Asian Federation Against Involuntary Disappearances (AFAD). He was

detained for alleged activities against public order under section 107 and 151 of the Criminal

Procedure Code on September 16, 2016. He was on his way to Geneva to attend the 33rd session

of the UN Human Rights Council when he was prevented from travelling out of India by airport

authorities in Delhi. The UN experts group said that his continued detention, just a few days

before his participation in the UN Human Rights Council, is a deliberate attempt to obstruct his

legitimate human rights activism. While commenting on the misuse of the Jammu and Kashmir

Public Safety Act against Mr. Parvez by the Indian government, the UN experts group added that

we have received allegations of this law often being arbitrarily applied to target human rights

defenders. The UN experts expressed their concerns over the lack of clarity about why the

Indian authorities have deemed it necessary to address this case outside the country’s

ordinary laws. Pakistan welcomed the call by UN human rights activists for Pervez’s release.

--- Abdul Moiz Khan