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The Decision to Scrap a Wind Turbine. Opportunity Cost, Timing and Policy. Johannes Mauritzen, [email protected] NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen And Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm. October 10th, 2011. Data and Methodology. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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www.nhh.no
October 10th, 2011
Johannes Mauritzen, [email protected] Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen
And
Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm
The Decision to Scrap a Wind TurbineOpportunity Cost, Timing and Policy
Data and Methodology• Main Data set from Danish Transimission Operator, Energinett
• Date of Installation and ”Decomission”• Coordinates• Principality• Capacity, Tower Height, Rotor Diameter, Manufacturer
• Duration Models• Kaplan Meier non-parametric estimation• Cox semi-parametric regression model
• Identification• Semi-Instrumental Variables• Semi- (regression) discontinuity• Proportional Hazards Assumption
Total Wind Power Capacity in Denmark
Scrapped Turbines per Month
16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, [email protected]
Scrappage Policies• April 1st, 2001 – January 1st, 2004
• Retroactive to 1999• Max capacity of 150 kW• Subsidy of .17 DKK/kWh
• 3x scrapped value <100kW• 2x scrapped value >100, <150
• December 15th, 2004• Max capacity of 450 kW• Subsidy of .12 DKK/kWh
• 2x scrapped capacity• limited to 12,000 FLH, max of .48 DKK total tariff• February 21, 2008 – extra .08 DKK/kWh hour added
Kaplan Meier Survivor Function Estimate
Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (100-200 kW)
Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (400-500 kW)
16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, [email protected]
Turbine Scrappage Hazard: Cox Regression
Turbine Efficiency Indicator
16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, [email protected]
16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, [email protected]
16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, [email protected]
Conclusion and Discussion
