Ocean Measurements from Ocean Measurements from Space:Space:Past, Present, and FuturePast, Present, and Future

Mark R. AbbottCollege of Oceanic and Atmospheric SciencesOregon State University

7 November 2007

OverviewOverview

A few examples of ocean research

A mix of agencies and missions

The NRC Decadal Survey

NPOESS and the Meltdown

New opportunities

Lost in the shuffle?

GCOS List of Essential Ocean GCOS List of Essential Ocean VariablesVariablesSurface: Sea surface temperature, wind speed and direction, sea surface salinity, sea level, sea state, sea ice, currents, ocean color, CO2 partial pressure

Can be divided into requirements for short-term (“forecasting”) and long-term (“projections”) applicationsAlthough the names remain the same, requirements change significantly

A few examples of A few examples of satellite-based researchsatellite-based researchEddies and ocean color

Coupling between persistent fronts and wind stress

Ocean color and photosynthetic potential

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[mg m-3] Kinetic energy [cm -2 m-2]

Chlorophyll concentration, eddy kinetic energy and alongshore wind stress off Peru

and Chile

[Pa x 10]

wind stressminimum

Why do eddies emanate from the low-energy region off N. Chile?

QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Chelton et al.

A similar picture is found off the western U.S. coast.

SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – January 1998. A sequence show high Chl carried offshore for 6 months.

SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – February 1998

SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – March 1998

SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – April 1998

SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – June 1998

SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – July1998

This air-sea interaction changes the curl and divergence of the wind stress: the curl of the wind stress creates vertical motions in the ocean (changing nutrients and biology); the divergence creates vertical motions in the atmosphere (changing clouds).

The predicted patterns relating the wind stress curl and divergence to the SST gradients (crosswind and downwind) are found over the Tropical Instability Waves, the Gulf Stream (and other WBCs) and the California Current (and other EBCs). The full effects of this coupling in both ocean and atmosphere have yet to be explored.

Global & Seasonal Global & Seasonal Distribution of Distribution of Fluorescence/[chl a] Fluorescence/[chl a]

Deriving Fluorescence quantum yield as a Deriving Fluorescence quantum yield as a function of seasonal solar irradiancefunction of seasonal solar irradiance

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Irradiance, μmol quanta m-2 s-1

Fluorescence quantum yield

f derived using Huot et al. 2005

How do the MODIS derived seasonal How do the MODIS derived seasonal trends in sun-induced chl trends in sun-induced chl fluorescence compare with our fluorescence compare with our present models?present models?

Fluorescence quantum yield

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Irradiance, μmol m-2 s-1

Morrison, 2003 Schallenberg et al., submitted

Asymmetry between Northern and Southern Hemisphere

Stressed

Non-stressed

A Potpourri of Missions A Potpourri of Missions and Agenciesand AgenciesMission typesSingle flight research missionsMultiple flight, improving capability research missionsBlock series operational missions

AgenciesResearch agencies (NASA)Operational agencies (DoD, NOAA)International partners

NRC proposes a “Decadal NRC proposes a “Decadal Survey” to develop a Survey” to develop a coordinated, multi-agency coordinated, multi-agency strategy for Earth strategy for Earth observationsobservationsProven, respected strategy

Astronomy, astrophysicsCommunity-basedFocused on identifying key science issuesSets context for relationships between initiatives, phasing, international partnerships

New for Earth scienceMultiple agencies, multiple objectives

Decadal Survey ApproachDecadal Survey Approach

Identify consensus science questions for 2005-2015

Make connections between applications and candidate observing systems

Recommend prioritized capabilities for NASA and NOAA

Identify directions for future planning beyond 2015

Interim Report in April Interim Report in April 20052005“Today, this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse”

"In the short period since the Interim Report, budgetary constraints & programmatic difficulties at NASA have greatly exacerbated this concern.  At a time of unprecedented need, the nation’s Earth observation satellite programs, once the envy of the world, are in disarray.“ January 2007 Final Report

Decadal Survey Final Decadal Survey Final ReportReportOverarching recommendation is to renew investment in Earth observing systems and restore US leadership

Developed Top 10 science questions, integrated with societal needs

Identified missions for both NOAA and NASA in the near-term

Identified missions for NOAA and NASA for the next decade (2010-2020)

Near-Term RecommendationsNear-Term Recommendations

NOAARestore total solar irradiation and Earth radiation budget sensors to NPOESSRestore next-generation sounding capabilities to GOES-R

NASALaunch Global Precipitation Mission by 2012Replace Landsat-7 before 2012

New MissionsNew Missions

17 NASA and NOAA missions between 2010 and 2020Seven small missions between $65M - $300MEight medium missions between $350M - $600MTwo large missions between $700M - $800M

Transition 3 research capabilities to operationsOcean vector windsGPS occultationTotal solar irradiance

NASA provides absolute, spectrally-resolved solar interferometer

New Missions (cont’d)New Missions (cont’d)

Two geostationary and 13 polar-orbiting missionsFour between 2010 and 2013Five between 2013 and 2016Six between 2016 and 2020

Of particular interest to ocean researchIceSat-IIHyperspectral sensor in geostationary orbitAdvanced ocean altimeterMulti-band spectroradiometer for advanced measurements of ocean color

Recommended MissionsRecommended Missions

Recommended NASA BudgetRecommended NASA Budget

Recommended NOAA BudgetRecommended NOAA Budget

Since the Decadal SurveySince the Decadal Survey

Nunn-McCurdy Certification of NPOESSFrom 6 to 4 spacecraftFirst spacecraft delayed to 2013Several sensors dropped or de-scopedGOES-R caught in the crossfire and several capabilities were dropped

Concerns raised about continuity and climate sensorsGaps are now inevitable

Lost in the Shuffle?Lost in the Shuffle?VIIRS will fly on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) in 2009

Will fly “as is”Unlikely to meet basic requirements for science-quality ocean color

Vector windsQuikSCAT will likely cease operations before new mission can launch

Ocean topographyOcean surface topography mission will require NOAA participation as well as NASA

All-weather SSTPassive microwave radiometer on NPOESS (CMIS)

Coastal Waters ImagerHyperspectral imager initially planned for GOES-RDropped because of cost concerns

OutlookOutlook

NASA and NOAABetter pathway from research to operations

Continuing need for research and technology development

Gaps will occur

Climate observationsRecognition of importance of satellite data

But still issues of balance between short-term and long-term

Climate data records are a perennial issue

Reprocessing, calibration/validation

Still focusing on physical climate measurements

BudgetsNASA still balancing space and Earth sciencePressures from manned missionsNOAA trying to manage long-term operations costs