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Ocean Acidification and the Challenges facing the American Lobster Fishery in a Changing
Ecosystem
Richard A. WahleUniversity of Maine | School of Marine Sciences
• Maine perilously dependent on one fishery.• Lobsters at historic highs, but will it last?• While UMaine leads research on lobster, OA effects are unknown.
2
Co-chairs: Rick Wahle (UMaine) Andrea Battison (CrustiPath) Paul Anderson (ME SG)
Special issueVol. 70 no.11
Nov 2013
Animation Source: M. Fogarty, NMFS/NEFSC
$1.09 billionin 2012
As other fisheries collapse American lobsters surge….
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
USCanada
Land
ings
(MT)
Landings
Landings
Source: US NMFS & Canada DFO
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
20,000
Me
tric
To
ns
MassRI
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
20,000
40,000
60,000
Me
tric
To
ns Maine
Maine’s Historic Highs
Value: $364M in 2013
ME
MARI
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Met
ric T
ons
Maine Lobster & Groundfish
1950-2010
Lobsteryellowtail flounderwolffishwitch flounderwinter flounderwhite hakesummer flounderstriped bassdogfishspiny dogfishskatesilver hakescupred hakeplaicehalibuthaddockgoosefish (Monk)cuskcunnerAtlantic codAcadian redfish
LobsterGroundfish
6
A perilous dependency on one fishery
Ting-Li Wang/The New York Times
7Photo: Curtsinger (Nat. Geo.)
• deplete large predators• booming lobsters…
A Warming Gulf of Maine
Source: Mills et al. 2013
Since 1982:~1°C every 40 years
Since 2004:~1°C every 4 years
20°C
12°C 20°C
12°CHot and Cold Thresholds
1990 20122011
Southern New England’s receding lobster nurseries
Wahle et al. in prep
Narragansett Bay ↑Temp
↓DO, pH
Shell disease spreads north
1997 199
8
2000
2002
2003
Source: MA DMF, ME DMR
2012
Global Ocean Data Analysis Project
Ocean Acidification
• North Atlantic acidifying faster than elsewhere.• OA effects poorly studied.• Interactions of OA with other stressors even less studied.• Effects are species- and life-stage specific
(estimated 1700s – 1990s)
Embryos Larvae Juveniles Adults
Reis et al. 2009 ↑ Growth, Calcification
Keppel et al. 2012↓ Growth, Development
Arnold et al. 2009↓ Growth, Calcification
Agnalt et al. 2013↔ Growth ↑ Deformities
↔ Growth ↑ Deformities
Styf et al. 2014 ↔ Development
Long et al. 2009
↓Survival & Growth ↔ Calcification, ↓ Condition index
Long et al. 2009
↓Survival & Growth ↑ Calcification, ↔ Condition index
American Lobster (Homarus americanus )
European Lobster (Homarus gammarus )
Norwegian Lobster (Nephrops norvegicus )
King crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus ) Alaska
Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi ) Alaska
Ocean Acidification Research on Lobsters and Crabs
Forecasting puts the future in our hands
• Lead time • Choices • Resilience
Suction sampling
0
1
2
3
8. York, ME
0
1
2
3
9. Beverly, MA
0
1
12. Buzzards Bay, MA
0
1
2
1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
13. Rhode Is.
0
110. Boston Harbor
0
1
2
11. Cape Cod Bay, MA
0
3
6
92. Beaver Hbr, NB
0
1
23. Jonesport, ME
0
1
24. Mt Desert Is, ME
0
1
25. Outer PenBay, ME
0
1
2
36. Mid-coast, ME
0
1
2
3
1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
7. Casco Bay, ME
0
3
1. Lobster Bay, NS
Suction Sampling 2013
ME
NH
MARI
NB
NS
PEI
Gulf of St. Lawrence
Gulf of Maine
1
23
457
6
98
12
10
1113
N m
-2
American Lobster Settlement Index – An Early warning?
0
1
2
3
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Proj
ecte
d R
ecru
itmen
t In
dex
LobsterForecasts
An Early warning system?
Yes… but no crystal ball.
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200123456789
10
Eastern MEMidcoast MERhode Island
Land
ings
(mill
ion
lbs)
?
Reported Landings
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
1
2
Proj
ecte
d R
ecru
itmen
t In
dex
Forecasts
Challenges for Maine’s fishery• Adapting to a shifting geography & shell disease. • Minimizing the cost of fishing while maximizing value.
Scientific Challenges• Weighing interactive effects of the diabolical trinity:
warming – hypoxia - acidification.• Assessing life stage- and species-specific responses. • Building infrastructure and collaborations to do long-term controlled studies.• Supporting long-term environmental monitoring.• Communication and outreach.
“We don’t really know the effects of ocean acidification on lobsters, but we do know the effects on shellfish and clams and it’s not positive. As long as the industrial nations of the world use fossil fuel, it’s going to get worse.”
Dave Cousins, President Maine Lobstermen’s Assn. Bangor Daily News 1/13/2014