Observations on:

The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan:

Pattern RecognitionLorcan Dempsey

VP Research and Chief Strategist

CNI Spring 2004 Task Force MeetingAlexandria, April 16 2004

Overview The library community?

• The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan

• Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review

• This year: – Worldwide scan– User perspective– In format for sharing

with membership

Pattern recognition

We have no future because our present is too volatile.

We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moment’s scenarios.

Pattern recognition …

Worldwide Scan

•29 countries selected•60% of the world’s population•85% of world’s gross domestic product

•100 people interviewed

Scan contentSocial

Economic

Technical

Research & learning

Library

Economic

Technical

Research & learning

Library

The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The

Social

Trends• The ‘Amazoogle’ effect• Generations• The fabric of collaboration• The value of the library

Technology is what has been invented since you were bornAlan Kay

Abuzz

Advice Trader

Answers.com

Ask An Expert

Sources.com

AskERIC

AskJeevesAskVRD.org

Ask the Old Buzzard

CNN’s Ask an Expert

Page

Consejos practicos

Google Answers

Internet Public Library

“Ask A Question”

Keen.com

Pregunta a los expertos

Taxcafe

Wondir

Ask Auntie Nolo

AskBAR

Experts.com

Poser un question

Ask-A-Geologist

As Ask Volcanologist

Ask Dr. Math

Ask Dr. Universe

Ask Shamu

How Things Work

MAD Scientist Network

NASA Quest

Pregunte a un expero

Schools Online Project

ScienceLine

Scientific-American: Ask the Expert

Ammdoc.com

Buscamed

Eclevelandclinic.com

Econsults.partners.org

Enviar pregunta

Expertdoc.net

Findcancerexperts.com

Go Ask Alice

Mdexpert.com

Physician referral center

Poser une question

Pregunte a RxExpress

Ask Joan of Art

National Museum of Art Reference Desk

Ask Made

iVillage

AskLISA

Laboratorio de estudos urbanos

Internet search & answer

Sociallandscape

OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)

“By 2007, Amazon.com’s revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million.”

(0.6 probability)

Microcontent

OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003) http://search.yahoo.com/top2003

Last Minute Addition:

Worldwide Microcontent Market

2003 - $1BillionIncludes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc.

Top Ten Tech Searches 2003

1. Ringtones2. Digital Cameras3. Mobile Phones4. HDTV5. MP3 Players6. iPod7. TiVo8. Plasma TV9. DVD-R10. Camcorders

The Amazoogle effect• Three perceived attributes?

– Comprehensive– Accessible– Immediate gratification

The net generation doesn’t love a wall

The fabric of collaboration: Social software

The collaboration technology fabric

OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)

Social landscape

Trends• Net generation

– Self-sufficiency– Seamlessness– Abundance

• Library– Increasingly called to

define value against the Amazoogle horizon

– Opportunity and challenge

SocialTechnical

Research & learning

Library

The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic

Economic

• Changes in “funding of the public good”– Normal cycles or permanent changes?

• Sources of library / education funds• Uses of library funds

– Resource allocations

– Trends, shifts

Economiclandscape

Library spending

U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent

nearly 75% of the total estimated 2000 worldwide

library spending

$29 billion

LibEcon (August 2003)

Uses of library funds

Staff 53%

Materials stock27%

Other17%

eContent/subscriptions 3%

ARL libraries2001-02

46%33%

14%7%

Worldwide average for libraries in sample countries 2000-01

LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)

Trends• Questioning the value of the public

good– Education– Public services

• Need for evidence of value

Social

Economic

Research & learning

Library

The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical

Technical

Technology landscape• A non-Library technology review

Where we looked and who we consulted:– Technology periodicals / publications– Leading technology vendors– Top technology analysts

Trends• Ambient connectivity and embedded

computation• Unplug and play• Coping with abundance• Open source• Convenience vs privacy

A new era – ambient and embedded

Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003

Ambient and embedded• In an electronically nomadicised

world I have become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad hoc mobile network.

• Those who just want a simpler life may choose to unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But for this particular early 21st Century nodular subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am part of the networks and the networks are part of me. … I am visible to Google. I link therefore I am.

Unplug and play

Common services

Content services

Application servicesPresentation

services

The User

•Software “pieces”

•Web services

•Distributed

OCLC Research (August 2003)

•Google API•Amazon API• In 2002, 6.2% of

Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e-commerce platform.

How to organize a newabundance?

Role of library approaches?

Hype or Hope?“How close are we to the Semantic Web that Tim Berners-Lee describes? Yes, and my American garage door talks to my Belgian toaster, and they agree I am hungry. Great idea. I think it will take a long time to realize, and that we will go through several generation of enabling technologies before we find ones that are suitable to actually get the job done.”—Herbert Van de Sompel

Salton’s Home Hub2004 Consumer Electronic Show

SocialTechnical

Library

Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning

Economic

Research &

learning

Research & learning landscape• Changing pattern of research and

learning behaviours– …

• Changing patterns of scholarly communication

• Lifelong learning trends• The need for place

– Social exchange

Learning for work Learn, adapt, change

• In 2001, US$23 billion• In Fortune’s 100 fastest

growing companies, 2 of top 10 are e-learning companies

• $400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005

oclc taskforce on elearning• Diffusion of information skills

and use through the learning process

• Life cycle management of learning materials

• Systems interaction between library and learning management systems

Picture courtesy Dan Rehak, Carnegie Mellon University

?

Scholarly information flow

peer-reviewed journals

publish, discovery discovery, linking, embedding

discovery, linking, embeddingdiscovery, harvestingAggregators

Learning & teaching

Researchand e-science

Picture adapted from Liz LyonConferences, abstracting and indexing services, etc.

validation

RepositoriesData creation, capture and gathering, lab experiments fieldwork, surveys, grids media…

harvesting

Courses, modules, learning management systems, learning portals…

Data analysis, transformation,

mining, modelingLearning object creation, reuse

deposit, self archiving deposit, self archiving

• Complex– Resource management– Personal, institutional, other– relationships

• A service and role question

Social

Economic

Technical

Research & learning

The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The

Library

Interviews“Libraries should reallocate positions to newer kinds of jobs: digital scholarship, open source projects, etc.”

“Librarians cannot change user behavior and so need to meet the user.”

Interviews“Paper content is being moved off-site to make room for things like cafes and information commons, but what stays and what goes? We do not have good tools for these decisions.”

“The idea of the balanced—but unread—collection is disappearing.”

Collections grid

high low

low

high

stewardshipun

ique

ness

BooksJournalsNewspapersGov. docsCD, DVDMapsScores

Special collectionsRare booksLocal/Historical newspapersLocal history materialsArchives & Manuscripts, Theses & dissertations

Research and learning materials •ePrints/tech reports•Learning objects•Courseware•E-portfolios•Research data

Freely-accessible web resourcesOpen source softwareNewsgroup archives

Some issues

Mainstreaming special collectionsEngagement with research and learningGrant funding

Does structure of costs reflect new roles?Reallocation of resources?

Digital resource management .Skills

Application architecture

Common services

Content services

Application services

Presentation services

The User

I’m looking for something through my

library’s portal.

OCLC Research (August 2003)

Directory: ILL policy

Application architecture

Common services

Content services

Application services

Presentation services

The User

Authentication

Directory: user profile

Query broker

Directory: service description

Reference db

Request broker

Circ/ILL systemOpenURL resolver

Directory: local knowledge base

Article db

OCLC Research (August 2003)

Interconnected library environment

• More complex library systems environment– ILS, portal, resource sharing, resolver, digital asset

management, …

• More complex institutional systems environment– Learning management system, university portal,

local government portal, …

• Growing use of shared services– Directory, identity management, trust

management, …

And …And …

Social

Economic

Technical

Research & learning

Library

Trends & implications

Technology

Library

EconomicSocial

OCLC

Research

public good

e-learning

e-commerce

seamless

Web services rights management

Open-source

self-sufficient

collaboration

search

global membership

• A turning point• Engagement with research, learning

and living in new ways• Create value• Skills and values

www.oclc.org/membership/escan

Read the full reportRead the full report

Print copies available at same URL$15 to cover print and postage

The pattern is new …

The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies

For the pattern is new in every moment