O Captain, My Captain! The Effect of Leadership in ... · SESM| Weimar & Prinz 4 1. INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH QUESTION • Universal Link between coach and player (bilateral monitor

O Captain, My Captain! – The Effect of Leadership in Professional Football

3rd International Conference Sport Economics & Sport Management, May 10th, 2018

Daniel Weimar & Joachim Prinz (University of Duisburg-Essen)

SESM| Weimar & Prinz 2

1. INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH QUESTION



• Performance=Effort * Human capital

While human capital fix in the short run, effort provision is more volatile

Captain selection as a way to change effort motivation

• Captain = inspector-steward; Coach = supervisor-manager

• Transformational leadership to increase team performance

Captain as role model, communicator and coordinator who affects a team’s production function

• Sport managers and coaches invest time resources to determine the captain

Assuming that the selection of a captain pays out

Critical discussion through media and fans

The captaincy as athlete leadership

(Alchian & Demsetz, 1972; Bass, 1985; Camirè, 2016; Cisternas, 2018; Charbonneau et al., 2001; Cotterill & Cheetham, 2017; Cooper, 1996; Deutscher, 2009; Elgar, 2016; Franck & Nüesch, 2010; Frick, 2011; Kuhn & Weinberger, 2005; Lazear et al., 2015; Loughead et al., 2006; Loughead, 2017)



• Universal

Link between coach and player (bilateral monitor and reporter)

Inducing a team’s cohesion by coordinating and communicating

Organizing parts of training sessions

Organizing warm ups

Team ambassador - more public appearances (interviews, press conferences)

• In-Game

Coin toss

Motivational speech

Monitoring the implementation or change the team tactic during the game

Communication with the referee

On-field encouragement and promotion of team moral

Handling fights

Obligatory participation when it comes to penalty shoot out

Additional tasks of a captain in sports

(Alchian & Demsetz, 1972; Apesteguia & Palacios-Huerta, 2010; Camirè, 2016; Elgar, 2016; Fransen et al., 2014; Schofield, 1988; Loughead et al., 2006; Loughead, 2017; Thomson et al., 2018)



• Increase in effort and performance

Positive Becket effect: increase in effort due to changes of attitude (e.g. responsibility, integrity)

Reputation, media attention and monitoring by the principal

• Decrease in effort and performance

Negative Becket effect: decrease in effort due to changes of attitude (e.g. arrogance, overconfidence)

Choking under additional pressure, changes in the relationship to other team mates (e.g. jealousy), distraction by self forced changes and/or concentration on new tasks

• No changes effort and performance

Behaviour is inherent and relatively fix

Negative facets neutralize positive facets

Effects of captaincy on a captain`s behavior

(Bass & Steidlmeier, 1999; Camirè, 2016; Carey, 1922; Cotterill & Cheetham, 2017; Cooper, 1996; Dawson & Dobson, 2002; Franck & Nüesch, 2010; Fransenet al., 2014; Loughead et al., 2006; Loughead, 2017; Thomson et al., 2018)



• Positive effect (common sense theory)

Captain shows a high amount of (inherent) leader ship skills

Captain shows an increase in effort and performance

• Negative effect (vicious cycle theory)

Captain shows weak leadership skills (Peter principle)

Captain shows a decrease in effort and performance

Change of captain in already precarious situations, which lead to further disruptions of faith and support

• No effect (Ritual scapegoat theory)

Captain shows no change in behavior

Leadership skills and role model of a captain with generally low impact compared to the human capital of the team (fix)

Effects of captaincy on team performance

(Bass & Steidlmeier, 1999; Camirè, 2016; Carey, 1922; Cotterill & Cheetham, 2017; Cooper, 1996; Dawson & Dobson, 2002; Franck & Nüesch, 2010; Fransenet al., 2014; Giambatista, 2004; Loughead et al., 2006; Loughead, 2017; Soebbing et al., 2015; Thomson et al., 2018)



• Past economic empirical research on captaincy in professional sports

Schoefield (1988): Performance and captaincy in Cricket

Deutscher (2009): Wage premium for captains in the NHL

Frick (2011): Captains with higher market values in the Bundesliga

Goncalves (2013): Captaincy does not correlate with player values in fantasy football

Fransen et al. (2014): Captaincy might be overrated (survey on roles of a captain)

Allen (2015): Captaincy and the impact on the draft selection in the NFL

Sacheti et al. (2016): Decision making of captains in cricket (coin toss)

Elgar (2016): Height and age as determinants of captain selection in 6 Olympic team sports

• Missing evidence on the actual effect of captaincy on a captain`s effort and performance and thus on a team`s performance in football (Loughead, 2017)

Question: Does captaincy affects a captain`s behavior and/or team performance

Research relevanz


2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

• Game-level captaincy and performance data from 6 Bundesliga seasons: 2011/2012 –2016/2017 (1,836 games)

• Observations without goalkeeper, 3 observations per player at lower bound, at least 15 minutes of playing time, missing values

• Player-match level (N=39,102) and team level as means (N=3,672)

• Data retrieved from Bundesliga.de, transfermarkt.de and google.de

Data Sample



• 2 measurements of effort (Schneemann & Deutscher, 2017; Weimar & Wicker, 2017; Wicker et al., 2013)

Dependent variables

0

.01

.02

.03

.04

De

nsity

80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Meters per Minute

0.5

11

.52

De

nsity

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

Runs per Minute


2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS – DEPENDENT VARIABLES

• 5 measurements of individual productivity (Berger & Nieken 2016; Deutscher et al. 2013; Deutscher & Schneemann, 2017;

Frick et al., 2008; Miklós-Thal & Ullrich, 2015)

Dependent variables0

24

68

De

nsity

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7

Fights won per Minute

0.5

11

.52

De

nsity

0 .25 .5 .75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5

Ball Touches per Minute

0.5

11

.52

De

nsity

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1

Ratio of Unsuccessful Passes

02

04

06

0

De

nsity

0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3

Shots on Goal per Minute

0.2

.4.6

.81

De

nsity

0 1

Received a Yellow Card


2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS – DEPENDENT VARIABLES

• 3 measurements of team performance (Atkinson et al., 1988; Dewenter & Namini, 2013; Leard & Doyle, 2011; Miklós-Thal &

Ullrich, 2015; Franck & Nüesch, 2010; Weimar & Wicker, 2017)

Dependent variables0

.1.2

.3.4

.5.6

.7

Fra

ctio

n

0 1

Wins

0.1

.2.3

.4

Fra

ctio

n

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Goals scored

0.1

.2.3

Fra

ctio

n

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Goal Difference


2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS – MAIN INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

• Two different measurements of captaincy/leadership

172 in-season captain changes (first time within 180 days)

Main independent varibles

.9242

.0758

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

Fra

ctio

n

0 1

Captain.9959

.0041

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

Fra

ctio

n

0 1

New Captain

.9464

.0536

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

Fra

ctio

n

0 1

New Captain Team Level


2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS – MAIN INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

Captaincy

No Captain Captain

AGE 25.76 29.53

TENURE 2.81 6.68

VALUE 6.21 6.75

HEIGHT 182.85 183.48

GERMAN 0.42 0.61

• Selection into captaincy



Covariates N=39,102 Mean SD Min Max

Player Specific

AGE 26.04 3.67 17.33 38.58

TENURE 3.10 3.35 0.00 21.90

VALUE 6.25 8.50 0.10 80.00

HEIGHT 182.90 6.28 165.00 199.00

GERMAN 0.43 0.50 0.00 1.00

PLAYING TIME 77.27 21.95 15.00 90.00

POSITION 6.08 3.58 1.00 13.00

SUB IN 0.13 0.34 0.00 1.00

YELLOW 0.15 0.36 0.00 1.00

REST DAYS 10.81 17.30 0.00 477.00

Game Specific

HOME 0.50 0.50 0.00 1.00

DERBY 0.04 0.19 0.00 1.00

WIN PROP 0.50 0.22 0.02 0.98

SPECTATOR/1000 43.30 17.40 13.50 81.36

SEASON 2013.55 1.76 2011.00 2016.00

GAMEDAY 17.55 9.83 1.00 34.00

Team Specific

TEAM METER MINUTE 112.58 4.59 94.78 134.60

TEAM VALUE 6.29 6.31 0.67 39.16

TEAM AGE 26.21 1.26 22.21 30.86

TEAM HEIGHT 183.67 2.29 164.74 204.66

TEAM GERMAN 3.33 1.21 0.66 8.25

TEAM TENURE 10.53 8.00 2.40 84.24

TEAM REST DAYS 0.09 0.30 0.00 2.00

TEAM SET OFFS 13.12 7.33 1.00 26.00

TEAM COACH 16.63 4.33 1 24

TEAM TAKTIK 26.04 3.67 17.33 38.58Opponents Specific OPPONENT STATS



Fixed Effects Regression Player-Game Observations (N=39,102)

Robust t-statistics in parentheses * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

DV: Minute Minute Runs Runs Fights Fights Shots Shots Touches Touches U. Pass U. Pass Yellow Yellow

CAPTAIN0.203

(0.66)

0.000

(0.07)

0.004

(2.16)*

0.000

(1.14)

0.005

(0.73)

0.013

(1.95)

0.001

(0.10)

NEW CAPTAIN-0.051

(-0.12)

-0.011

(-1.26)

-0.004

(-1.08)

-0.000

(-0.08)

0.010

(0.78)

0.015

(1.06)

-0.007

(-0.23)

Residuals - - - - Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Player Var Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Game Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Team Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Opponent V. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Adj. R2within 0.510 0.510 0.290 0.290 0.098 0.098 0.071 0.071 0.221 0.221 0.122 0.122 0.010 0.010

Adj. R2LSDV 0.744 0.744 0.680 0.680 0.246 0.246 0.320 0.320 0.545 0.545 0.334 0.334 0.040 0.040


2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS – RESULTS

Fixed Effects Regression Player-Game Observations (N=39,102)

Robust t-statistics in parentheses * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

DV: Minute Runs Fights Shots Touches U. Pass Yellow

NEW CAPTAIN-0.056

(-0.13)

-0.011

(-1.26)

-0.004

(-1.08)

-0.000

(-0.06)

0.010

(0.79)

0.015

(1.07)

-0.007

(-0.22)

NEW CAPTAIN 2-0.301

(-0.38)

0.003

(0.23)

0.003

(0.68)

0.001

(0.80)

0.011

(0.52)

0.028

(1.10)

0.016

(0.35)

NEW CAPTAIN 3-0.243

(-0.41)

-0.005

(-0.44)

-0.005

(-1.04)

0.001

(0.58)

0.004

(0.22)

-0.018

(-0.89)

0.010

(0.19)

Residuals - - Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Player Var Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Game Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Team Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Opponent V. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Adj. R2within 0.510 0.290 0.098 0.071 0.221 0.122 0.010

Adj. R2LSDV 0.744 0.680 0.246 0.320 0.545 0.334 0.040



Fixed Effects Regression Team Level(N=3,672)

Robust t-statistics in parentheses * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001; Similar results if randomly selecting one observation per game (N=1,836).

DV: Meter Runs Fights Shots Touches U. Pass Win Goals Goal Diff

NEW CAPTAIN-0.481

(-0.45)

-0.009

(-1.32)

0.001

(1.19)

0.000

(1.97)

-0.000

(-0.06)

0.007

(0.83)

0.038

(1.26)

0.109

(1.47)

0.066

(0.49)

Residuals - - Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Game Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Team Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Opponent V. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Adjusted R2 0.089 0.392 0.391 0.273 0.415 0.417 0.097 0.098 0.171



Fixed Effects Regression Team Level(N=3,672)

Robust t-statistics in parentheses * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001; Similar results if randomly selecting one observation per game (N=1,836).

DV: Meter Runs Fights Shots Touches U. Pass Win Goals Goal Diff

NEW CAPTAIN-0.434

(-0.41)

-0.009

(-1.26)

0.001

(1.12)

0.000

(1.96)

-0.000

(-0.03)

0.007

(0.83)

0.039

(1.29)

0.119

(1.57)

0.074

(0.55)

NEW CAPTAIN 20.812

(1.40)

0.002

(0.43)

-0.000

(-0.17)

-0.000

(-0.27)

0.009

(1.00)

0.012

(0.89)

-0.051

(-0.82)

0.081

(0.58)

-0.165

(-0.84)

NEW CAPTAIN 30.557

(0.72)

0.008

(1.21)

-0.001

(-0.67)

0.000

(0.02)

-0.003

(-0.38)

-0.006

(-0.64)

0.102

(1.61)

0.221

(1.14)

0.431

(1.67)

Residuals - - Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Game Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Team Var. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Opponent V. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl. Incl.

Adjusted R2 0.089 0.391 0.391 0.273 0.415 0.417 0.097 0.098 0.171



Interaction effects between new captaincy and individual effort (meters)

80

10

012

014

016

018

0

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34AGE

As before New Captain

NEW CAPTAIN ## AGE

12

212

2.5

12

312

3.5

12

412

4.5

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 2 4 6 8 10TENURE


NEW CAPTAIN ## TENURE

11

812

012

212

412

6

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

1 6 11 16 21 26VALUE


NEW CAPTAIN ## MAKRET VALUE

11

512

012

513

013

5

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

DM HS IV LA LM LV MS OM RA RM RVPOSITION


NEW CAPTAIN ## POSITION

12

212

312

412

5

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 7 14 21REST DAYS


NEW CAPTAIN ## REST DAYS

12

2.5

12

312

3.5

12

412

4.5

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 1HOME


NEW CAPTAIN ## HOME

11

812

012

212

412

612

8

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1WIN PROP


NEW CAPTAIN ## WIN PROPABILTY



Interaction effects between new captaincy and team performance (win probability)

-.5

0.5

11.5

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34t1_alter


NEW CAPTAIN ## AGE

0.2

.4.6

.81

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 2 4 6 8 10t1_tenure


NEW CAPTAIN ## TENURE

.2.4

.6.8

1

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

1 6 11 16 21 26t1_marktwert


NEW CAPTAIN ## MAKRET VALUE

-.2

0.2

.4.6

.8

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

170 175 180 185 190 195t1_groesse


NEW CAPTAIN ## HEIGHT

0.2

.4.6

.8

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1t1_german


NEW CAPTAIN ## GERMAN

.2.3

.4.5

.6.7

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 1HOME


NEW CAPTAIN ## HOME

.2.3

.4.5

.6

Lin

ear

Pre

dic

tion

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1WIN PROP


NEW CAPTAIN ## WIN PROPABILTY


3. CONCLUSION

• Support for “No effect” hypothesis for captaincy and a captain`s effort and performance

• Support for “No effect” hypothesis for captaincy and team performance

• Tendency for a moderating effect by home games (positive impact for home games)

• Thus, principals might not invest too many resources into the selection process of a new team leader and/or select captains with less public controversy

• Drawbacks

No variation of team size (effect of team leader might vary with team size)

Short time span (6 years)

No information about the specific cause of the captain change

Very homogeneous club culture (only Germany)

Results


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O Captain, My Captain! The Effect of Leadership in ... · SESM| Weimar & Prinz 4 1. INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH QUESTION • Universal Link between coach and player (bilateral monitor