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NYWEA 2013
Water for the Future
Supply Augmentation Need Planning
Mark N. Page, Jr.
September 19, 2013
Agenda
2
Background on Water for the Future
Current Program
Modeling Results
Water Supply System Overview
Dependability Program
Above Kensico Reservoir
Rondout - West Branch Tunnel (Delaware Aqueduct)
West Branch – Kensico Tunnel (Delaware Aqueduct)
Ashokan – Kensico Reach (Catskill Aqueduct)
Rondout Reservoir
Ashokan Reservoir
Below Kensico Reservoir
Kensico Reservoir and Connecting Tunnels to Eastview
Hillview Reservoir
City Tunnels #1 & #2
Catskill & Delaware Aqueducts between Kensico and Hillview Reservoirs
Richmond Tunnel (Brooklyn to Staten Island)
10 Critical Areas Have No ‘Back-up’ Infrastructure or Supplies
Dependability Supply Needs Above Kensico
Rondout Reservoir(335 - 435 MGD)
Rondout-West Branch Tunnel
(335 - 435 MGD)
West BranchKensico Tunnel(385 - 485 MGD)
AshokanReservoir
(35 - 135 MGD)
AshokanKensico Reach(35 - 135 MGD)
Dependability Below KensicoDependability Below Kensico
Pressurization of Catskill Aqueduct from Kensico Reservoir to the UV Facility at Eastview
Kensico – City Tunnel (Previously known as City Tunnel No. 3 Stage 3)
The Bronx – Queens Tunnel (Previously known as City Tunnel No. 3 Stage 4)
City Tunnel No.3(Stage 2, Manhattan Leg)
2007 RWBT Identified as Primary Area of Concern
7
RWBT conveys Delaware system water and is the primary source for Towns of Newburgh and Marlborough and approximately 50% of New York City’s supply
Project Background - Roseton Surface ExpressionA dozen or so surface expressions
Flow observed on west bank of Hudson River
Testing program and analysis estimates leakage of 15 to 35 mgd.
Roseton Leakage
9
How Long will the Tunnel be Out of Service?
2007 Shutdown Schedule
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Outage Duration
Au
gm
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Supply to Eliminate Maximum Shortfall
Supply to Eliminate 95th %ile Shortfall
Supply to Eliminate 90th %ile Shortfall
Supply to Eliminate 75th %ile Shortfall
Supply to Eliminate 50th %ile Shortfall
2008 Shortfall Curve
Potential Solutions for Dependability
Demand Reduction
Interconnections
Expand Groundwater Use
Croton Pump Stations
Increase Aqueduct Capacities
Hudson River and Harbor Surface Water, Hudson Groundwater
Abandoned Sources (Westchester Co.)
Parallel Tunnels
Project Tiering/Prioritization – Focuses Effort on Best Projects and Combinations
Augmentation Project Screening
Delaware Repair: Alternative water sources
Project evaluation to identify a group of projects to meet NYC’s alternate water supply needs (2008)
39 Projects
26 Projects
Project ID Project Name CAPACITY
EF-11 Increase Catskill Aqueduct 600 to 660 MGD 60EF-08a Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). 100 mgd w/ UV @ Eastview 100EF-08b Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). And Press NCA, 100 mgd w/ WTP 100NJ-2 Middlesex WC to Staten Island (15 mgd) 15NJ-1 NJAW to Staten Island (50 mgd) 50NJ-4a NJAW w/ Confluence to Staten Island (75 MGD) 75NJ-8 NJAW & MWC w/ DEP Del. Div. Canal Road WTP to SI 125NJ-6 NJAW w/ Del. Div. to Staten Island (110 MGD) 110NJ-9 NJ DEP Del. Div. w/ DEP WTP 300 MGD 300NJ-10 NJ-New Tunnel & Del Div, w/o NJ WTP 300 MGD 300HR-04a Hudson-Chelsea PS & Clarifier to West Branch 200 mgd 200HR-06b Hudson Aquifer at Ossing to Eastview by OCA - 25 MGD 25HR-04b Hudson-Chelsea PS & WTP to West Branch 200 mgd 200EF-16a Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 mgd w/ Clar. + NCA press and UV @ Eastview 200EF-16b Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 MGD w/ Filt + NCA Press and WTP @ Eastview 200HR-02a Hudson Desal - Westchester to Eastview - 200 MGD 200HR-03a Hudson-Staten Island Desal (50 MGD) 50
HR-02b Hudson Desal - Westchester to Eastview - 400 MGD 400
HR-02d Hudson Desal to Hillview Res. - 400 MGD 400
HR-01b Hudson Desal Catskill Crossing to Eastview - 400 MGD 400HR-02c Hudson Desal to Hillview Res. - 200 MGD 200HR-01a Hudson Desal Catskill Crossing to Eastview - 200 MGD 200GW-BQ-05 ASR in Magothy Aquifer 55GW-BQ-01aJamaica Phase 1 55 MGD 55GW-BQ-04 Brackish GW Desalination 40GW-BQ-06 Use Brooklyn Dewatering Wells 20GW-NC-02 GW Nassau County (using existing wells) 75GW-NC-03 GW Nassau County w/ New Wells & WTP 50
GW-BQ-07 ASR in Lloyd Aquifer 50GW-BQ-01cJamaica Phase 3 +30 MGD 30GW-BQ-01bJamaica Phase 2 +70 MGD 70DM-04 Expanded Demand Reduction Program 20EF-13a Abandoned Sources - Yonkers 15 MGD WTP 15RU-01ab Wastewater Reuse Industrial Customers 12EF-03b Press. New Croton Aq. w/ UV @ Eastview 0
EF-03d Press. New Croton Aq. w/ WTP @ Eastview 0PA-East-RWBRondout West Branch only 400PA-Eastern RouteEastern Route 400PA-Western RouteWestern Route 400
Project ID Project Name CAPACITY
EF-11 Increase Catskill Aqueduct 600 to 660 MGD 60EF-08a Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). 100 mgd w/ UV @ Eastview 100EF-08b Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). And Press NCA, 100 mgd w/ WTP 100NJ-2 Middlesex WC to Staten Island (15 mgd) 15NJ-1 NJAW to Staten Island (50 mgd) 50NJ-4a NJAW w/ Confluence to Staten Island (75 MGD) 75NJ-8 NJAW & MWC w/ DEP Del. Div. Canal Road WTP to SI 125NJ-6 NJAW w/ Del. Div. to Staten Island (110 MGD) 110HR-04a Hudson-Chelsea PS & Clarifier to West Branch 200 mgd 200HR-06b Hudson Aquifer at Ossing to Eastview by OCA - 25 MGD 25HR-04b Hudson-Chelsea PS & WTP to West Branch 200 mgd 200EF-16a Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 mgd w/ Clar. + NCA press and UV @ Eastview 200EF-16b Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 MGD w/ Filt + NCA Press and WTP @ Eastview 200HR-02a Hudson Desal - Westchester to Eastview - 200 MGD 200HR-03a Hudson-Staten Island Desal (50 MGD) 50GW-BQ-05 ASR in Magothy Aquifer 55GW-BQ-01aJamaica Phase 1 55 MGD 55GW-BQ-04 Brackish GW Desalination 40GW-BQ-06 Use Brooklyn Dewatering Wells 20GW-NC-02 GW Nassau County (using existing wells) 75GW-NC-03 GW Nassau County w/ New Wells & WTP 50DM-04 Expanded Demand Reduction Program 20EF-13a Abandoned Sources - Yonkers 15 MGD WTP 15RU-01ab Wastewater Reuse Industrial Customers 12PA-East-RWBRondout West Branch only 400PA-Eastern RouteEastern Route 400
Factors:• Cost• Schedule• DEP Control
Key:
Redundant tunnels
Optimization of existing system
Groundwater
Desalinization of Hudson River or Harbor water
Interconnections to New Jersey or Connecticut
Delaware Repair: Alternative water sources
Top 26 Projects falls to 17 with the removal of mutually exclusive projects.
Project ID Project Name CAPACITY
Cumul. Capacity
Low High
EF-11 Increase Catskill Aqueduct 600 to 660 MGD 60 60 6 10 338$ -$ 1.24$ 3DM-04 Expanded Demand Reduction Program 20 80 8 11 228$ -$ 1.42$ 3GW-BQ-01aJamaica Phase 1 55 MGD 55 135 9 10 914$ 607$ 6.06$ 3GW-BQ-04 Brackish GW Desalination 40 175 11 13 623$ 501$ 6.16$ 3GW-BQ-06 Use Brooklyn Dewatering Wells 20 195 9 11 353$ 217$ 6.24$ 3EF-08a Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). 100 mgd w/ UV @ Eastview 100 295 8 9 495$ 91$ 1.28$ 2EF-13a Abandoned Sources - Yonkers 15 MGD WTP 15 310 7 9 100$ 123$ 3.27$ 2PA-East-RWBRondout West Branch only 400 710 14 19 4,338$ -$ 2.38$ 2HR-04a Hudson-Chelsea PS & Clarifier to West Branch 200 mgd 200 910 11 15 2,695$ 386$ 3.38$ 2HR-06b Hudson Aquifer at Ossing to Eastview by OCA - 25 MGD 25 935 8 10 337$ 38$ 3.29$ 2HR-04b Hudson-Chelsea PS & WTP to West Branch 200 mgd 200 1135 11 15 2,906$ 395$ 3.62$ 2NJ-2 Middlesex WC to Staten Island (15 mgd) 15 1150 8 9 25$ 13$ 0.91$ 1RU-01ab Wastewater Reuse Industrial Customers 12 1162 8 11 367$ 281$ 7.52$ 2NJ-1 NJAW to Staten Island (50 mgd) 50 1212 8 9 338$ 273$ 4.59$ 1HR-03a Hudson-Staten Island Desal (50 MGD) 50 1262 10 13 1,482$ 966$ 10.72$ 2GW-NC-02 GW Nassau County (using existing wells) 75 1337 11 13 1,155$ 505$ 6.74$ 1NJ-4a NJAW w/ Confluence to Staten Island (75 MGD) 75 1412 9 11 1,184$ 610$ 6.09$ 1
COST (2008$)DEP
ControlRange
Capital O&M Present Worth
$/1,000 gal
SCHEDULE
Duel path – Alternate Supply / Parallel Tunnel
16
Moving to Design
In 2008 and 2009 DEP hired new consultant team to develop parallel tunnel and bypass tunnel concepts to address the RWBT leaks
Stage 9
Stage 7
Stage 2
Stage 5
Stage 1
Catskill Connection
Hudson River Connection
WawarsingRoseton
EL 840
RondoutReservoir
Ron
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Walk
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iver
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Shaft 6 Tunnel Unwatering Shaft
Sh
aft
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West Branch Reservoir
El 503
El -600.0
17
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Repair of the LeaksS
haft
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aft
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aft
3
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aft
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aft
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aft
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Wawarsing Repairs:
Possible from within tunnel
Access via Shaft 2A
Confinement Relatively good
Roseton Repairs
Not possible from within tunnel
Access requires new shafts
Best Solution is Bypass
Bypass Tunnel Construction
18
Recent Modeling
In 2010 DEP shifted from evaluating a full repair of the RWBT to constructing a bypass around the leak in Roston, NY
This bypass included the use of inundation plugs to handle tunnel inundation, resulting in approximately a month shutdown period for the connection
19
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Outage Duration (months)
Supply Curve at Varying Percentiles
100% 90% 75% 50%
OST Supply Curve (2012-02-01)
20
OSTv1.3.7.1_Aug-SC_000
Runs were conducted for these four supply levels
Objectives (during an outage):
Provide advance notice of potential shortfall conditions
Provide DEP with enough time to take some preventive action
Objectives (now, during the planning process):
Accurately simulate operations during an outage
Provide a fuller picture of how various augmentation projects perform
Provide a framework to help support DEP’s risk analysis
Uncertainties in augmentation project capacity
Uncertainties in RWB repair duration
Threshold Approach - Objectives
21
0%
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130 200 240 320 Base
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Cumulative probability of demand reductions Cumulative probability of demobilization
Likelihood of Emergency Actions for 15-Month Outage
22
Big Break Through!!!
Inundation Plugs not necessary!!!
This resulted in the following:
A shorter shutdown period for the connection of approximately 10 months
A phased connection of the bypass tunnel to the RWBT
Allowed for an evaluation of shorter shutdown periods and bailout contingencies
We evaluated four phased approaches:
Fixed Staging
4 month / 3 month / 3 month
5/5
6/4
Variable Stage (10 months total but can be broken and phased over 3 years)
23
Recent Modeling Results
Where we are now!
26
Water Demand and Dry Weather Wastewater FlowsHistoric Flows and Future Projections 2012
Water Supply System Augmentation and Improvement
Conservation / Demand Management
Upper Catskill Aqueduct Optimization
Queens Groundwater Rehabilitation
27
28
Modeling Results End of 2012
As a result of three workshops, extensive modeling, and shutdown design updates:
Variable Stage Shutdown allows for complete shutdown in one phase
Includes a repair start on Oct 1 with augmentation starting June 1
Provides for a singular phase repair based on modeling using forecasted 60 day look ahead for continuation of shutdown or bailout from repair
Provides for allowance for remaining repair to be completed in subsequent years, if necessary
58 mgd of augmentation (33 mgd Groundwater + 25 mgd Demand Management)
Catskill Aqueduct maximum flow increased to 636 mgd via Catskill Rehabilitation Project
Croton WFP flow at 250 mgd to account for diurnal demand pattern.
29
Outage Surface Plot: Variable Outage
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Most outages start in October
Index 560
Outage_Pattern Var
SourceNY_Q 58
New_Crot_Aq_max 290
CatAq_max 636
Reserve_Buffer 10%
NYC_Demand_level 1070
Temp_vary_Demand 0Substantially longer Stage 1 outage duration with 10% reserve and CAT 636
30
Likelihood of Completion: Variable Staging
Month #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
4 lines for each color – these represent:•NCA 250 / Demand Pattern•NCA 290 / Demand Pattern•NCA 250 / Demand Regression•NCA 290 / Demand Regression
This plot shows the likelihood of completing 300 total outage days over a period of up to 3 years.
Like
lihoo
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Com
plet
ing
x O
utag
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ays
Shows probability of successfully completing the variable stage shutdown repair during a three consecutive year period
Allows for three chances to complete the 10 month (300 day) repair
Could complete entire 10 months in first year Or could complete remaining repair period during
subsequent one or two years if insufficient supply is available in first year
Fixed stage shutdowns do not allow for this flexibility since entire three year period is required for each repair period
31
Stage Type Reserve CatAq NCA Demand 30 days 60 days 90 days 120 days 150 days 180 days 210 days 240 days 270 days 300 daysVariable 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%Variable 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%Variable 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 97% 96%Variable 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 96% 96%
433 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96%433 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96%433 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 96% 95% 95% 90% 90%433 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 96% 95% 95% 90% 90%55 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%55 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%55 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 95% 92% 92%55 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 94% 90% 90%55 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 99% 96% 96% 96% 96% 87% 87%55 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 99% 96% 96% 96% 95% 86% 86%55 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 92% 82% 65% 65%55 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 91% 79% 64% 64%64 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 97% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%64 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 97% 97% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95%64 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 95% 94% 91% 91%64 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 95% 94% 91% 91%64 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 97% 96% 96% 96% 91% 87% 87%64 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 96% 96% 90% 85% 85%64 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 96% 96% 92% 87% 72% 67% 67%64 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 96% 96% 92% 86% 72% 68% 68%
Likelihood of Completion: Summary Table
99% Probability of
Success!
32
Next Steps
Continue refining shutdown design and modeling
Continue thinking about issues that could arise
Develop operational plans for shutdown